WKJM:
I was just reading this article about Mike Huckabee saying that President Obama’s going to be harder to beat than a lot of Republicans think. I think he’s right, for a number of reasons. But one he mentions is incumbency. And he’s right. People simply don’t appreciate how seldom elected presidents get denied reelection. By my count, it’s only happened three times in the last century. Carter, the first President Bush and Herbert Hoover.
[…]
But what it comes down to is that presidents who are elected tend to get reelected. The pattern is really clear.
Hoover – bad economy in 1932 (Great Depression)
Carter – bad economy in 1980 (“Misery Index”)
Bush I – bad economy in 1992 (“It’s the economy, stupid”)
Yup, the pattern is really clear.
Filed under: 2012 Election, Barack Obama, General | Tagged: 2012 elections, Barack Obama |
The Confluence 
Obama’s approval now down to 39% per Zogby as reported by LA Times.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2010/11/obama-romney-palin.html
Are you old enough to remember the “Limbo” song – “How low can he go?”
When I saw that headline, that song was the first thing that popped into my head!
I have my tinfoil hat on this morning and what really bothers me is knowing that one thing trumps a bad economy and that’s a war president.
Obama is a war president. He has two wars going right now.
Plus Yemen, where we’ve had Special Forces for 2 1/2 years.
But we don’t talk about that out loud. 🙂
And they are rarely in the news, unless a local soldier died.
It is amazing how little most of America cares.
djmm
That was my first thought when I heard about Korea.
Yup. Scarey to have Obumbles in charge with N Korea being explosive. I’m hoping our SOS can handle it for Obama — so he can keep working on his golf game.
Of course, that means she saves his ass again.
That war president rally only occurs when people see the president to be strong. The view of Obama seems to be that he is weak, so the war president schtick might actually rebound against him.
I’m sure Axelrod will be focus-grouping this very proposition first thing.
Axelrove is leaving the WH pretty soon, btw.
That’s what I meant — I’m sure his first task as head of the 2012 campaign is to test out the marketing strategy for starting another war to buck up Obama’s ratings!
Oh, got it.
Yea, but Plouffe is coming on–he’s just as bad.
First time I read that, thought you said “focus-groping”… and that works too… LOL
Context is everything:
What’s normal for a TLC program on a Sunday night?
LOL. Let’s see, it goes from 5M viewers to 3M viewers on its second show. That is, a much publicized first show got more viewers. That’s unusual… Wait, no, that’s what happens 100% of the time with a new hyped show.
Talk about grabbing for straws. OK, Obots, Palin doesn’t hold office and isn’t at the moment running for office. She’s popular among her base. Not so much outside of that base. Sooooo, if you ignore her, it will probably stay that way. If you’re on her every day, putting her in the news every day, guess what’s likely to happen to those numbers outside of her base? Idiots.
As a point of interest, 3 million is still more than twice the TLC average:
note: these are Sept. numbers from a Kate Gosselin fan site, so I can’t vouch for them per se.
During football season?
Obots can’t see any patterns because of the glitter in their eyes.
One Obot friend on FB actually posted how proud he is to have a president who has ended the war in Iraq. Yeah, really, he posted that. Nevermind the 50,000 troops who will be left there with combat pay. THE WAR IS OVER IN IRAQ because Obama says it is. So, obviously, there is no talking to these people — they will keep applauding Obama’s virtuousity on the violin while Rome burns.
Mission Accomplished!
Bush III – big theme of the campaign watchers. McCain was not the one who most resembled Bush.
Lowest ever: Obama job approval sinks to 39%, as even Democrats’ support melts away
Obama’s job approval rating as calculated by the Zogby Poll has now sunk to 39%, a new low for his 22-month presidency that began with so much hope and excitement and poll numbers up around 70. As recently as Sept. 20, his job approval was 49%.
A whopping 60% now disapprove of his job, up from 51% disapproval Sept. 20.
But, Zogby notes, perhaps most ominous for the president is that he’s now losing support among his own party people. His approval plopped nearly 10% in just one week, from 78% down to 72% in Zogby’s latest read.
Obama, John Zogby writes, “is failing to please more than one-fourth of his own party’s voters. This is a perilous position for the President.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2010/11/obama-romney-palin.html
Paging a Primary Contender, Paging a Primary Contender!
oops, just saw this above. Again, the Conflucians are way ahead!
Clinton and Reagan didn’t make your list of mentions, huh?
I would not that people here said he wouldn’t beat hillary and he wouldn’t beat mccain.
Fail.
Take it up with Josh Marshall. Did you even read the post?
I know you can’t help being an asshat but don’t be a stupid one.
Can’t even make out what he’s saying. He’s losing it.
No one told him that excess glitter in the eyes, saturates the brain.
The pattern is about one term presidents and the common thread of the economics of the day, which Obama fits into. So, no, you wouldn’t tend to include examples that don’t fit that pattern.
Seriously, is ABG a real person, or is it some sort of Obama propaganda software. {{knocks on ABG’s head, is anyone in there?}}
Another failure from Gooberhead McFailbot. 😛
He “beat” Clinton because the party bosses rigged the nomination procedures in his favor.
He “beat” McCain because Bush and Cheney had screwed the whole kennel of pooches in positions even Dr. Ruth never heard of.
Obummer has never won an election without some kind of help from insiders.
He only stands a real chance in 2012 because the GOP has become a party of lunatics.
ABG might believe that winning may require one to beat as in beat with a bat in the head. That might explain why ABG does not view cheating, cyber bashing, crashing computers and websites (i.e.; the official HRC forum), using the DNC email list to embed remote control executables known as spyware (yes, I did open one and my mouse moved on its own when I was typing and I found the spyware and reported it), and threatening other Democrats as fair play.
AGB might be thinking “beat” as in beat ’em up with a bat” vs “beat ’em at making points in a game.” AGB seems to not care that Democrats were bullied, threatened, cyber bashed, sent spyware in the DNC emails and basically treated like slaves who would merely march to the beat of the beat. How many ways can a Democrat beat another Democrat? You name it, the Obots did it.
Oops. I’m on my phone and thought I lost that first post. Sorry.
Reagan & Clinton both WON re-election, a$$hat. What part of “one term president” don’t you understand?
There’s also Taft, who lost his re-election bid as a Republican in 1912 because Teddy Roosevelt’s populist “progressive” Bull Moose third party ticket split Republican votes in the general election and Wilson won…at the height of the industrial robber baron era, back when Repubs looked more like today’s Dems. There must be a lesson in there somewhere.
Good example. The third party effect was a big deal for HW Bush as well. And I don’t think that’s random either. I think popular third party movements have a lot to do with dissatisfaction, so seeing something like that in 2012 is very likely.
In fact, I’d say that if Palin doesn’t get nominated in the GOP, there’s a pretty good chance she’d run as an independent, given some of the things she’s said. And there could be other strong third party candidates. Perhaps enough to change the outcome.
If Palin’s supporters think she was screwed by the GOP establishment, the Beltway folks better batten down the hatches for a coming storm. Lots of these people have little or no connection to the Republican party and they could be out for vengeance.
Ha! NPR is now doing NASCAR reports…on the winning ways of Jimmie Johnson.
Yay! John Smart has a hilarious post from the Obama scriptures.
A reading from the Obama Scriptures – Touch the Vulva!
(laughing) Very funny!!
Taliban Leader in Secret Talks Was an Impostor
I don’t believe we are doing well in the AfPak war effort.
Damn, that’s just freakin’ ludicrous!
I’m thinking more “Casino Royale” with Peter Sellers. Apparently, they’re blaming it on NATO though, but maybe if Sen. Obama had attended some meetings when he was the chair of the Afghan group, then this mistake could have been averted.
just sayin’
I was thinking it was Mr. Bean.
Seems that since we’re the big dog in NATO for AfPak, the blame is coming primarily at us. I like the Peter Sellers version of “Casino Royale” for this story though.
OMI – Can we start working on how to create an Obama Misery Index and keep it going (ipdated monthly?) right up until 2012. We should beat the misery he is causing into people’s heads every day until it finally sinks in.
Is that the “junk-touching” or “no junk-touching” section?
or will she just do the self-examination as proposed now for Muslim women?
Hmmm. If true, that could get a lot of women temporarily converting.
Congressional “leaders” get to avoid what us little people must go through.
Remember when… Michelle Obama said, “Barack could be arrested as a black man driving?”. When I was a Police Officer, 1980s, You ran the license plate before pulling anyone over. The plate tells you whether the car is registered to an emergency personnel as in doctor, fireman… congressman… So there is no way in hell a chance that Sentor Obama would be pulled over… not in Chicago.
I used to work retail security. I busted a black guy for stealing some tools (he stuffed them in his pants and walked out without paying) and as I was cuffing him he said “It’s cuz I’m black, right?”
I told him “That’s right – we let white people steal whatever they want.”
He didn’t think that was funny.
I’ve been saying this for at least a year, ever since it became clear that Obama had no intention of enacting any legislation that we might remotely call progressive, that his FU to the Left was a re-election strategy coldly calculated. And after two years of being attacked by crazies, he’s going to appear even more moderate and sensible no matter what condition the economy is in. I don’t see a primary challenger appearing any time soon nor an independent with enough name recognition from the Left (Michael Moore?) stepping into the ring. So who’s he got to worry about? Huckabee? Romney? Palin? Daniels? Jeb? One glimpse at his opponent and the clown show they’re loyal to and pragmatic Americans will hold their noses and vote for four more years. After all, we’ve established a fairly impressive pattern of late in the country and I see no reason why it will suddenly stop: reward political/financial/military failure – expect a change in behavior.
I disagree. He doesn’t look moderate and sensible, he looks like the Emperor without Clothes. He’s WIDE open to a primary challenge now, and he’ll be further open in six months after the republicans and the press turn on him. He’ll look ineffective At Best.
Dean will announce first, and half of Obama-nation’s young hipsters will flock to Dean. The rest will turn up their noses and declare themselves totally over politics and go back to drinking cheap beer with an ironic sneer. He’s already lost all of his independents and most of the Dem base- they’re only still supporting him out of a lesser of two weevils mentality. Once everyone gets over the idea of a primary challenge and it’s implications, Hillary will be publicly encouraged to join the fight. Eventually she’ll resign over some issue and step in.
Meanwhile, Palin will be in it to win it from the beginning. Huckabee will lose the moderates and fiscal conservative/social liberals. Romney will lose the Mormon-phobic Christian voters. Gingrich has too much baggage and not enough charisma. Jindal appears to see which way things are going and may hold off. Jeb is potentially a problem, but he doesn’t have Palin’s fanbase. It’ll be democracy in action as the RNC bigwigs try to game the primary to take Palin out, but her sheer unshakable popularity carries her through. She’ll win. And Hillary will win unless the DNC decides to play kingmaker again.
And then anything can happen, but my money is on Hillary, with Palin making a political comeback in eight to twelve years.
Sandress,
Interesting scenarios, but I don’t see Dean or Hillary entering the race: too old and not enough policy difference to evoke the sort of intensity and enthusiasm that’s required. I could be wrong. I agree that Palin might very well get the nomination, but only because the oligarchy wants to slap the Tea Partiers down. She has no chance in the general, and the oligarchy would like to put the useful idiots in their place. They’re far too independent for their own good and if there’s anything the party chiefs demand it’s a politician who understands his marching orders. Obama’s their guy, and he’s done nothing yet to disappoint them. He’s been promised four more years, and I expect the rhetoric in support of him to heat up in the next few months.
I’d be willing to put money on Dean jumping in. Democracy for America has been agitating for months now, often with Dean’s name on it. And once the way is clear, if Hillary thinks Obama is as bad for America (and the Dem party) as another Repub President (and how can she NOT see that), then she’ll be moved to action. She just can’t be the first in. She needs to wait for outrage to mount a little more. Maybe there’ll be an increase in military conflict, maybe there’ll be a fourteen year old girl molested by a TSA agent, but something horrible will happen on Obama’s watch, and high profile people will publicly call for Hillary to step in. And eventually she will.
I agree that if HRC does not save the party by getting into running mode, the DNC will only go for O. HRC’s pattern to back up Thee President goes back to her personal ideation of loyalty. She backed up Bill when she was hotter than hell. And, she said, at the S. Carolina debate, “Barack and I will be fine… but will the American People be okay?…’ Basically, she knows she is shielded from the jolt of the economy. However, as SOS, she may be Saving USA in ways she feels no one else can. She knows she has real power now. She may have realized that like her friend Lady Rothchild, she may be able to make more power moves as a power elite. Take a look at Pres. Clinton’s work as an ex-President. He has a powerful effect on other countries and their connection to the USA. As a Non-Politician, HRC could mentor the next Potential Female Potus or Potus in general.
The GOP is a party of lunatic for certain. Somehow, their primary agenda has not been updated prior to the Year 2000 Bug. Maybe they never updated beyond Windows 95?
For some crazy reason, uh yes probably that Sarah Palin is a Wild Western Shoot from the hip type of gal, the Republican Elites are just not able to contain her or control her. But she is on the media now. They gave her a voice on the media. She has a podium and forum. It’s fun to imagine what Bush Jr. would’ve done to his chances of becoming President if he had a television show. LMAO
I don’t think Hillary thinks she’s saving the US in a way nobody else can. I don’t think she buys into that kind of exceptionalism. And as much as I think she’d be happy to mentor up-and-comers, I don’t think she needs to back off yet. Bill Clinton only has the pull he has because he is an ex-President. Hillary’s power right now derives largely from her position as SoS. That’s a unique aspect of the Presidency. Even after you lose the position, you stay an ex-President forever. THAT’s power. I think Hillary will go after it, not because she wants power, but because she knows what she can Do with it.
And Sarah Palin will do just fine for herself.
As much I hoped and prayed HRC would get into the mode, I believe she’ll stick to her word. I know she knows he is a puppet. Not only could you see it on her face in debates but many on her campaign I met who met her when Bill was running knew a lot about her from being on many Democratic campaigns. It was obvious to them that it was obvious to her. I mean, local campaign volunteers who had volunteered for years and even decades could see that. But I do believe that when she makes up her mind, she has made it. I think she has strong will and intent.
I do think she thinks she has a position which gives her access to the most important people in the world. The President cannot fly all over the world due to National Security. Thus, the Executive is strapped to relying on others to give their reports and advice. In our real world, the President lives a seperate existence far removed from reality.
HRC may see how she can use her power, and she has plenty, more directly and effectively. She not only has name recognition, political ties, fundraising ties, and diplomatic ties, she is a born educator and leader. Seeing het talk in San Jose, I realized that she understands complex concepts and real life situations along with their evolution as well as being capable of explaining those things and make sense clear enough to communicate rapidly. Obama has just words. He is like a beer commercial: don’t think, just drink me.
HRC may have a path we cannot imagine merely because she is following it.
Do not forget: Hillary Made History not Once. She is the first First Lady to run for Senate, not Once but twice. I got to vote for her the second time. I was in NY that year. How many First Lady’s became Secretary of State? How many FL’s can boast winning the Primary Elections or even losing it? She broke the glass ceiling in so many ways, so many times.
O is not a Black Man. He is Inter-Racial. He was not the 1st Black Editor of Harvard Law School. That will come back in history. History will recount the Primary of 2008. We will live to see that after 2016. We will see the comparisons of Obama as another Kennedy, as another King, Jr., as The One come back again. All that is not funny. It was real propaganda abused for the sake of fundraising. The abuse by the media just begs to be written about for future generations to understand abuse of media and money and why the Founding Fathers created a seperate nation from its colonial parental governorship.
Hillary has written, and will write and speak again. Once she has her freedom of speech back, who knows what she can say. Eighteen million people want to know.