Riverdaughter has already said what needs to be said: floating Hillary as Veep is a cheap distraction. She’d be better off running on her own. But I’ve been wondering, how would that work out?
I think I’ll engage in a little political analysis. Sure, I don’t really have any qualifications or relevant expertise, but neither did the nominal winner in the last Democratic Presidential Primary, so I’m feeling okay with that. Seriously, though, am I the only one who’s noticed the influx of Obama marketing material lately? Well, maybe less marketing and more crude distraction techniques. Between the emails urging me to celebrate Obama’s birthday (at least three), the ethics charges against prominent Hillary supporters, his appearance on the View, and the backhanded editorials encouraging Obama to pick Hillary out of the crowd for the honor of VP-dom (and as counterpoint, the editorials encouraging the throwing of Biden under the bus), I’m having a terrible time remembering the fact that this is the guy who was happy to bail out the banks without adding regulation, but wanted to stimulate the economy without spending too much, and who took single-payer off the table back when it had 59% public support (click through to pdf for the poll data).
Actually, as much as we’ve been hearing about Obama’s crappy approval ratings, I’m getting a little antsy about 2012. Honestly, given how much I enjoyed the last set of primaries, I want to ignore this stuff. But like I recently told a friend, being a political junkie is less a hobby, and more a kind of mild PTSD. I don’t Enjoy this stuff, I’m just uncomfortably hypervigilant on it. I need to know what’s happening so it doesn’t take me by surprise when it bites me in the ass.
As a result, I’m trying to prepare myself for 2012. I mean, I know to expect rampant misogyny, spin, outright lies, and vicious accusations of racism. I’m ready for that. I know to expect the wholesale directional conflation of partisan ties with stupidity. I’m prepared.
What I’m not ready for is the actual outcome. It’s way too early to tell what’s going to happen. But there are some factors we know now that are going to impact things.
One: Obama is whiny and doesn’t like hard work. Presidentin’ is hard (Caucusing is easy).
Two: His approval ratings suck, Hillary’s are getting better all the time.
Three: Obama is a Narcissist. He’s better suited for the adulation and freedom and historical importance of being a Former President than the work and criticism of being a Current President. He could end up looking bad and losing fans if he runs a losing campaign in 2012. Can he risk that? He could end up looking weak or uncommitted if he steps down in 2012. Can he risk That? Prediction: his laziness and need for adulation will win. Look for Michelle or one of the kids to have an ill-defined medical issue come up that justifies his stepping down, while the DNC begs him to reconsider. That’d both feed his ego AND get him out of what is clearly an unfulfilling job for him.
Four: Hillary now has an enormous amount of foreign policy experience, and as such is a much stronger candidate than she was during the primary.
Five: Obama’s candidacy was helped along by his allies at the DNC and his big money corporate donors. He may or may not still have that support, now that his ratings are in the toilet.
Six: Neither party is exactly a picture of unified purpose just now. The Tea Partiers are a highly influential splinter group (and the media is fighting to portray them as either an Army of dissenters or a teensy group of dry-pussy old women reactionary racists and nobody seems to have accurate numbers), and the Dems never fully recovered from the 2008 primaries (with more defectors all the time).
Seven: Nobody has a lock on the primaries. Obama as incumbent has a real advantage, but his numbers are low and sinking fast. Sarah Palin has enthused supporters, but her opponents have big money and more support from the party bigwigs. Howard Dean’s Democracy for America has been sending out emails that subtly and not-so-subtly bash Obama. Obama is surely going to face at least one primary challenger. But will it be someone with the resources to take him on, or a symbolic resistance?
And here’s how it plays out according to my geeking out… (click to view full size)
As you can see, it’s a little up in the air. And I haven’t taken probability into account, only possibility. Honestly, the chances of Obama managing to resurrect zombie Hope to any significant extent seem slim. As to whether Hillary would run again, I think she’s motivated by a sense of duty more than a sense of loyalty. I think she’d intervene, even at great personal cost, to save the party, and at even greater personal cost if she thought she could help the country.
A lot depends on whether or not the GOP can unite behind a single candidate. I think if Palin wins then they’ll have numbers but not money, and if they pick anyone else, they’ll have money but no numbers. But that’s just my take. It’s hard to assess the probability of this yet, but I do think that Hillary stands a better chance of unifying the Dems than Obama does. This could be to her benefit, since the voters will prefer her. It could be to her detriment, since I suspect that the Obama puppet-masters are nominally Republican corporate fatcats. Given the vicious fraud that has been a part of Democratic primaries and elections in the past, the will of the people isn’t exactly the only variable, either. At any rate, this is just me playing Nostradamus. What do you think?
Filed under: 2012 Election, General |
The Confluence 
I think Obama has the nomination and nobody in the Democratic party has the guts to primary the first black president, further with realistic expectations of being able to win that race or being able to win the general election after being bloodied up and being denied support from key Democratic constituencies for going against Obama.
Obama still means a lot to the people who are still his supporters, who aren’t all Obots. Criticizing him and holding him accountable and putting pressure on him is one thing, but if someone actually primaried him, it would get so ugly, so quickly.
Of course, I welcome any Democrat to prove my skepticism unfounded here 🙂
I disagree. The pain of the economy is all too real. I see it first hand, as do many of you. People are permanently losing their careers, their possessions, their childrens’ future. As a nation, we are losing our scientific infrastructure. Our roads are going unpaved (you should see what a patchwork they have made of the streets in my affluent suburb this week). We are laying off teachers left and right. Medical care is still too expensive. Taxes are still going up and wages are coming down. There is persistent, unrelenting anxiety about our jobs every fricking’ day. It’s stressful.
It’s going to get worse. We will be a diminished people. Americans don’t like to be losers. This economy is more like a Depression than a Recession. He is going to take the heat for that.
Besides, I never give in to complacency and despair when it comes to politics. If I did that, there’d be no point in following it at all. Everything would be entirely predictable.
We never thought the Berlin Wall would fall or communism would meet its match. But these things happened. We saw it.
Never give up. As Hillary said, “Keep going!”
Besides, the Congressional Democrats may turn on him if the carnage is severe this fall.
Well I never give up, I just prepare for the worst.
RD, I agree with you. If Hillary were to run, the voters would kick Obama to the curb in a hurry. Black, brown, blue or grey the man is simply incompetent and people know that well now.
I don’t know about that … Nagin was totally incompetent and his base stuck with him to the detriment of the city. The argument against Mitch Landrieu the first time out was that no one wanted the appearance of bringing in a white mayor to bail out a black one and there’s a real distaste for white hegemony. No one likes being called a racist either. Same deal with Bill Jefferson until he actually got indicted. He squeaked through a time before because no one wanted the “little” white girl who was actually a Latina, but that, I suppose that is a moot point. A black woman challenged him, but she got the full force of the attack machine in the previous primary for taking on a brother. There’s a strong feeling in the black community that any black politician is better than a white, which is paralleled in the women’s community by any woman candidate is superior to a man. When you’ve been kicked to the ground so long, you’ll hang in there a real long time just to prove a point. My guess is Obama’s core won’t leave him and they’re very influential in the Democratic Party right now. They’re looking for a way to bail him out and they still think a lot of this kickback comes from racism rather than the issues he’s having governing.
Also, notice that Obama surrounds himself with tough guys. People that do the dirty work for him so he can stay above it. I’m guessing Biden will just be the first of the Judas goats.
I don’t give a damn what color he is, eventually people get enough. Have you tried counting the number of voters of each race lately? You overestimate the hell out of the African American vote and they are not stereotypical.
yep…there’s no way he’ll give up on Greek columns part 2 .
Lol
I Just don’t see Obama stepping aside. As a narcissist, there’s just no way anyone can spin that as an embarassing failure of epic proportions. And I agree with Wonk. Obots don’t matter in anyone’s electoral calculations, but chances are Obama stepping aside or being primaried would not exactly sit well with some key constituencies. The ’08 campaign broke this party and it’s going to be much harder to put it back together again.
Except as an embarassing failure, I mean
Yep, the Democratic party is broken. And, in another sense, both parties are broken right now and only seem capable of putting empty suits into the WH. (A major party would have to nominate a woman before I would believe they were capable of it.) Continuing under empty armani Obama or going from him to empty Mittens or some other empty GOPer are both net negative outcomes which have their silver linings if you think about them. I’d just barely rather have the GOP lose this go-around, though, because I’ve thought it out from every angle, and the GOP losing against Obama in 2012 is marginally better, though I would never be able to vote to make that happen. Or at least I can’t imagine being able to do that at this point. The margin that it’s better by is pretty insignificant.
What are your thoughts on it? I would hate to see Romney win (to the point where I’ve considered whether I could possibly vote for O), but I’m not sure if it makes any difference either way. Would love to hear your take. 🙂
That’s my nightmare too. I don’t know if I could survive a Romney presidency. Just thinking about it makes me shudder.
Hiya Seriously… not sure how much sense I’m going to make explaining this, but here goes… if it’s between O and Mitt/blech/etc, then in terms of which outcome gives us any chance at escaping our national nightmare sooner, I think it’s the outcome where the GOP loses in 2012. But, it’s an infinitesimally slight chance, and I’m not sure we’ll ever fully escape the nightmare. I look at it as 8 years total of empty Obama that we’ll have had to endure if Obama wins a second term vs. up to 12 years of empty suit if he doesn’t (i.e. 4-8 years of Mitt or whoever else after 4 years of Obama already.) We couldn’t even afford these corporate tools from 2000 to now, so how the eff are we going to withstand another decade of them? And, that’s the risk we face if we just switch from Obama to Romney or whoever.
It just seems like with Obama winning a second term, even though that part is undesirable, at least we aren’t stuck with the torture of not knowing how much longer this will go on. Maybe that’s cold comfort., but with the scenario where the GOP picks up enough steam to win, we’re kinda stuck in limbo in another quandary all over again wondering when the hell we’ll get our next chance and how exactly are ordinary, non-bonus class people supposed to get by until then.
An argument can be made here that Obama losing in 2012 gives Hillary a wider opening to run in 2016… I just am very wary of that, since the Dems couldn’t even nominate her at age 60… how in the world are they going to nominate her when she’s almost 70? I don’t see the tidal wave of misogyny, classism, and ageism against her and her supporters ebbing between now and then.
Now if the reverse were to happen and Obama were to lose to the GOP in ’12, then even though the GOP winning is undesirable, the upsides are 1) the Obama blueprint would be discredited as a path to 2-term success and we would have a better chance of rebuilding a better Dem party and 2) the crap GOPesque agenda would stop happening under the Dem/left brand, and we’d have a better chance of opposing that agenda from the left. However, the big huge catch there with all of that silver lining is that actually making the Dem party better in the long run and not repeating the entire mess and opposing the GOP/Dem corporatocracy more effectively — much of that hinges quite a bit on the activist left learning from their mistakes from 2000-2012, which they’ve not shown much inclination toward so far. I suspect instead they will learn all the wrong lessons from a loss in 2012.
So the marginally better scenario I can see is that in 2016 even if we can’t really reform the party’s root problems, we might have a shot at rallying around a Democrat who can bring the Dem party’s key constituencies back together at least and we can work on shared goals again (without being divided by the false charges of racism). It won’t be an easy year for a Dem to win, because after 8 years of Obama/Dems, the GOP would likely stand a huge chance of recapturing the WH. (Obama and the Dems have done the unthinkable and rehabbed the GOP, which shouldn’t have even been able to dream of the WH for 16 years after Bush.) Anyhow, in the long run I think we stand a better chance of accomplishing more by running a better candidate in 2016 and getting back on track that way than we do by waiting for the activist left to learn the right lessons from a loss in 2012 (where meanwhile the GOP continues to reap the benefits off of Democratic dysfunction. )
All that said, Obama and the Dems richly deserve to lose, esp. if they can’t even compete with the odious people on the GOP slate right now (Mitt, Huckabee, Jeb, Newt, Barbour, etc). I only have reason to vote against both parties in 2012 so far, and 2012 is not the same situation as 2008. Wall Street was invested in Obama in 2008, and the GOP was not invested in 2008 itself or in McCain. Whoever the GOP runs now, they will be all in behind that candidate most likely, and if Wall Street is hedging their bets between Obama and the GOP, then the Democrats may be the party in power, but the GOP in resurgent mode is actually the (marginally) bigger threat now (whereas in 2008, the Dems were the significantly bigger threat).
My only choices in 2012 right now seem to be abstain the presidential line or vote third party. That’s where my thinking is at. 2 years is of course is a long time in politics, though, and we don’t even know the exact matchup, so I can’t say for sure where I’ll be on voting day. Pretty much the only thing I can say for sure is that, despite my skepticism about how likely her running again is, Hillary is the only one who’s already earned my vote if she ever asks for it again.
Wow, thanks Wonk. 🙂 Yeah, I definitely don’t see any upside or endgame involved in a Repub win in ’12. The only thing with an Obama win, though, is we basically have no bench. Willyjsimmons said the other day that he suspected Webb was positioning himself with his immigrant-bashing AA pandering, and I’m afraid he’s right. If not Webb, someone equally bad–and what else do we have, but bad? I agree that the pwogs would absorb exactly the wrong message from an O loss, but likewise an O win would also empower the Axlerovian axis. I don’t think this was a one shot deal for them, and I’m not sure where they go from here, but they’re in the catbird seat and I doubt they’ll just go away. I mean, it’s tempting to think this was a one shot deal motivated by CDS and misogyny, and fundamentally I’m sure many of O’s supporters mean well and want the same things we do–but what percentage don’t, and how much more powerful, active and determined are they? How many times can they run this con and cash in?
I don’t know. *sighs*
I agree… I don’t think it was a one-shot for them at all. And, I don’t think the differences in any of the possible scenarios are by huge margins at all.. when I say better chance at rallying around a Dem in 2016 than waiting for them to learn the right lessons from a 2012 loss… that’s a completely relative thing. I don’t think we stand much of a chance in 2016 either, just that I think we stand even less of a chance with a 2012 Dem loss, because they’ll learn the wrong stuff the way they learned everything wrong from 2000 and 2004.
And then let’s say we find someone amazing (okay, fine, halfway decent) in ’16 and we manage to nominate him (always and forever, him) even though he won’t have the built in advantages Hillary had in terms of having a devoted following and amazing name recognition, then he goes down in the 8 years of Obama tsunami, then they’ll disavow any responsibility there and learn the exact wrong lesson yet again. Hey, we tried it your way, we know how to win. I could even see them throwing the nomination race just to screw us since a loss would be preordained, and then coming back with someone 10 times as vile.
Oy–so many bad options, so little time.
Yup that’s why said even though we can rally around someone in 2016, the GOP stands a ridiculously huge chance of recapturing the WH after 8 years of Obama. I still think though, even with the Dem losing in ’16, it might do more (albeit by a very slight fraction) if we could at least bring the constituencies back together at the point where we could stop throwing the charge of racism around willy-nilly (this is assuming the ideal circumstances, which of course is a mistake Lol). But if the Dems nominate someone like anti-affirmative action anti-immigrant panderer Webb, then we’re kinda back in purgatory on that issue.
Wonk,
That comment should be a post.
Doesn’t mean it can’t happen though….
Narcissism has two sides to it, though. It’s always been conceived as a kind of defense against a deeper insecurity. Obama’s motivation for running was always clearly to be able to put President on his resume, to be put into the history books as this important figure. Which he has now accomplished. He clearly doesn’t enjoy Being President, and there’s no reason he should: he’s already gotten all of the reward, and his adulation is at an all-time low. So now, he’s probably looking for the escape route which is least insulting to his ego. He COULD run again in 2012, and if he won, that’d be reaffirming. But if he lost, it’d be a Massive assault on his ego. If he is even remotely conscious of the possibility of loss (and he might be), he’ll know how dangerous that is for him. On the other hand, if he steps down, he could be seen as weak (also bad for his ego), unless he can find some way to spin his stepping down as magnanimous. Hence my prediction that Michelle or one of the girls will have to take the hit- some kind of ill-defined “health issue” or something, allowing him to step down to the DNC begging him to stay and everyone commenting about what a WONDERFUL husband/father he is. That’d probably smooth his ego over enough for him to consider it.
But just as GWB gamed the system (i.e. Ohio) to win re-election, so could BO, regardless of how unpopular he is now.
Agreed. Actual out and out fraud is a definite possibility.
Exactly. And that’s the thing. Obama doesn’t enjoy acting as President, but he doesn’t want to lose. If he gives up, he goes down in history as an embarassing failure (oh, sure, it will be spun, but please). But he’s also a cheater, and cheaters always think they can beat the house. He has much more control taking his chances in the game than giving up. And as President, with the party apparatus at his disposal, he has a lot of power, unburdened by any scruples.
I think Obama enjoys Being President, it’s the doing he doesn’t like. But as long as his inner circle can keep him in the bubble where he’s still king, the scrutiny is not enough to keep him from running for his second term. With the hubris he has, he’d rather risk losing than let anyone else prove that they could win. And even if he loses he can turn it into his theme for another book on how America is ungovernable and how he’s better off as ex-president than having a second term and how he tried to all these amazing noble things during his first term rather than worry about being popular.
Yeah–he’ll always be worshiped by his 27 percenters. And in the short term we’ll see all these books, “America’s Failed Promise,” how he was sabotaged and victimized and it’s America’s fault, not his fault. There would be a cottage industry in Obama apologia. We’re already seeing the groundwork laid for the America is ungovernable theme. If he can’t do it, no one can.
I see Republican congress persons digging into all kinds of his business and showing that he is a fraud and a liar. Think Whitewater with actual wrong doing times a thousand. Darell Issa seems entirely too cheerful and like he cannot wait for January. If the polls keep going down he quits with scandal and tries to blame the Republicans for his own wrongdoing. Then almost everyone laughs. It will be Bush and Clinton’s fault.
I agree. If the Republicans sweep in November [which looks likely] then hold your hats because the next two years will be Whitewater on steroids. And yes, unlike Whitewater, an expensive and pointless fishing expedition, I suspect there are big fish to catch when it comes to Obama&Co. Those Chicago years alone should provide plenty of material. Of course, the Republicans need to be careful because the Illinois Combine indicts both parties in wrongdoing and gross corruption.
Obama’s polls this morning are -22, the lowest so far. I guess we’ll get a chance to see how low they can really go.
I don’t disagree with your conclusion, except to say How will it be Clinton’s fault?
I just read today about the GE chairman scolding MSNBC for not being supine enough to Obama. I think, like W, it matters little to handlers what jr.jr wants. If they want him again, he’ll be running.
And your tabloids of the day
http://edgeoforever.wordpress.com/2010/08/11/tabloids-floating-glacier-vs-oil-rigs-fed-buys-debt-and-other-stories/
If they want him again, he’ll be running.
It really is that simple. Obama is not calling the shots
in any sphere. He does what he’s told, that’s why he’s there.
Yes, Paper Doll, exactly. He is there because his “historic-ness” is the only thing that could keep people in their seats while the pillage of our country by big business/banking continues to accelerate.
bingo
I think it comes down to who do GE and Goldman Sachs want in there. And with them, a few other companies and the media. They work well together unfortunately. If GE & GS & others want Obama, we get Obama.
But like RD says, things are really bad, and no matter how powerful those companies are, if the trend is being pushed by the masses for something else, they’ll just slightly change course to accommodate. They’re not stupid. And frankly, which puppet they use is not that important to them.
I’d say Obama is the guy unless things stay bad and people get more and more angry. And the Repubs can help grease the slide of course.
Everyone keeps talking about Obama being under the thumb of the corps, and I’m on board with that. But I wonder by what Mechanism they’re controlling him. He has what he wanted now (the title). Is it just the promise of 2012? Is it the promise of big money upon retirement? Is he under threat of some kind of physical violence? Or (most likely in my opinion) is he being blackmailed in some way? Because some of these will be easier for O to ignore than others. If he thinks himself invulnerable, then he’s probably not too Scared of his corporate masters.
GE is the key to explain so much about O and perhaps is the equal only to GS in reaping benefits from the administration. Not to mention the war, they profited handsomely from both the bank bailout and health insurance reform. But they still want to get their biggest windfall from cap and trade which is written primarily to enrich GE (and some friends in Chicago).
Ain’t it cool that they’ve already convinced Democrats that cap and trade (in other words, huge corporate profits) = climate control and environmental protections? Just like mandated health insurance = health care. So now they’re screaming for its passage. It’s a hoot.
They are one of the major movers behind the Obama selection. I’m sure they approached all the D candidates (as anyone with a D was surely going to win after Bush) and asked which was willing to play. Obviously, Hillary said no, so they picked Obama.
“As Immelt put it in a letter to shareholders, he believes that the Obama administration will be a profitable “financier” and “key partner.”
“Four: Hillary now has an enormous amount of foreign policy experience, and as such is a much stronger candidate than she was during the primary.”
meh~ she was the stronger candidate in 08 as well. they were going to install the inexperienced incompetent narcissist come hell or high voter turn out.
This alone makes convinces me it doesn’t matter what we think or do….. it’ll be just as rigged in 12 as 08.
arrrgggh, more coffee please!
No, I agree she was the strongest candidate then, too. But of the two major criticisms, no foreign policy experience and too divisive, both are demonstrably untrue now.
It’s brilliant! I love it. I totally agree. If Obama runs, he can’t do a repeat of 2008. In 2012 he’d actually have to work at winning the general. His friends won’t be able to (or may be unwilling to) gently lift and carry him over the finish line. He may spare himself a primary battle but the primary will be bloody and the Dems will remain split meaning his chances are slim.
Yelling “Vote for me you stupid, working class r@cysts!” isn’t usually a winning slogan.
And yet, that’s what he said in 2008 and he won a 4-year all-expense-paid vacation.
OMG that was funny! A four year all expense paid vacation! Truer words were never written. He isn’t giving up the additional 4 years anytime soon.
yes, indeedy, with his own plane and a puppy!
I have to say, I can’t see the same sort of GS rigging of the markets perfectly timed for his election a second time. And I don’t think an international incident, no matter how well timed, will help either. So other than the usual amount of voter fraud, I don’t think anyone will do the heavy lifting for Obama next time.
I don’t see how he isn’t the Dem nominee, but I can certainly see him loosing to a Repub if they make a good choice in their primaries. Big if.
Well, I think it has a lot to do with the Party. I think the party is corrupt, sure, but I think it serves a different master than O does. If it sees its fundraising potential dying slowly with another dem candidacy, it’ll quietly do what it can to steer us towards another candidate. If the voters are overwhelmingly flocking to one candidate, they may even choose her, given that their other option is a devastating and humiliating loss. Also, they probably don’t think she could win a general, and throwing her to the lions so that She can lose the general and kill her career would be a good way to get rid of her once and for all (from their perspective). So it could happen, but it wouldn’t be pretty.
Of course, as Dems, I think they mostly enjoy their defeats, so I could be wrong.
The top of the ticket is the problem. Adding Hillary can’t change that. Likened to lipstick on a pig.
I like John Smart’s take.
http://www.johnwsmart.com/
Ouch. Pretty good. Liked this part:
They couldn’t see that they were voting for a white corporate elitist who happened to have brown skin. If it didn’t hurt so much to see my country going down the crapper, I might call it brilliant.
As an article in the NYT pointed out after the 2008 election, Axelrod’s tactic is to have his Hope + Change candidate Parick/Obama run against a more qualified woman. Then white males can vote for a not totally whited male over a woman, whom they would not vote for on principal, and feel good about their lack of bigotry.
I love the chart and think it is very representative of the possibilities…
My sense is that Obama isn’t really going to want a 2nd term… he’s done – he’s bored and it’s too hard. BUT, he’s been installed by the powers that be and if they want him, he will be required to take another run at it… (plus they know if he doesn’t, Hillary may run and that is far too dangerous)… if he loses, meh! so what?, the R candidate will be the one bought and paid for.
I am completely cynical now.
At some point during the 2008 primary, Hillary did not prove to be nearly as malleable as the Big Money thought she might be.
Palin will never have a chance at the R nomination – she’s not bought and paid for… no matter how disgusting her politics, she has that one advantage (and consequently will never be allowed to run UNLESS Obama runs for a 2nd term – and even then, it is unlikely)
This is how I have decided to vote in 2012:
If (Hillary runs for President)
then (vote for Hillary)
elseif (Palin votes for President)
then (vote for Palin)
else (vote 3rd party)
endif
I agree, OC. The only way the Dems get rid of Obama is if Obama decides to leave. The problem Obama has, however, is similar to what Princess Diana faced once she decided on a divorce: what do you do for an encore after you’ve been married to the future King of England? If, all of a sudden, criticism started to rain down on Obama as President, instead of on the Congress–where the anger is currently placed–then the question is moot. We know he can’t stand criticism, so he’d be more willing to leave quietly if, in his own mind, he could leave as a “successful”, “historic” President.
I think what happened in the primary is that the Dems like Pelosi, who used to be liberal, and those like Emmanuel, who only care about corporate campaign contributions, saw in Obama the perfect cipher. They knew he wasn’t all that committed to anything, but, to them, that was a plus. The congress would dream up the legislation and draft it, and Obama would use his “great oratory skills” to sell what they had dreamed up. What they didn’t anticipate is that the economy would collapse after they had backed this particular horse. Now they’re stuck with a guy who has no ideas and no leadership skills, and they’re locked into supporting him for fear of alienating one of the few loyal voting constituencies they have left–the black voters.
Unfortunately, polls still show that most voters think Obama is a really nice guy who is being hamstrung by an obstreperous Congress. Since most voters in this country cast their votes either based on personality or party loyalty, unless Obama is seen as the problem, rather than the Democratic Party, I don’t see Obama being replaced.
I don’t think Obama will leave willingly. Being a narcissist doesn’t just mean he needs approval and applause. It means he will trash anyone who doesn’t give him the approval and attention he needs.
Being a narcissist means he will never accept that any of this is his fault. Everything is always someone else’s fault. He won’t stop thinking he’s great. He’ll just try to hurt the people who don’t think he’s great.
he’s surrounded himself with plenty of guys that are known for their relentless ability to take down others …. he’ll turn axelrahm loose on their asses with dead fish and unsealed divorce cases
He has shown his vindictive side many times already.
He doesn’t actually have to be the one with the ideas. He could hire smart people who either can up with ideas or know who/where to get them. The catch –
1. He has to be smart enough to grasp the ideas.
2. He has to be willing to actually listen to the ideas.
3. He has to know when it’s a good one or a dud.
So far, nada in any instance.
It takes more than ideas for success. Ideas are like seeds. They must be planted and cared to maturity. Obama is a talker. A talker today is a talker tomorrow. He’s never done anything successful, except run and win the presidency. But considering the help he got, I see his winning a total failure. Our economic problems are structural and as he says: “complicated”. It’s too late for Oprecious to do anything to change the dynamics of the economy in 2012 because it’s like turning the Titanic around. The economy grew last year because it was a massive stimulus, and there’s no more sugar water.
The big question is Iran/Israel confrontation. Americans rally behind the president on any war, like a Pavlov dog at the sound of the bell. RR proved that with the invasion of Grenada.
“What they didn’t anticipate is that the economy would collapse after they had backed this particular horse. ”
I beg to differ, I think the econimic “collapse” was timed perfectly for the 2008 GE. McCain and Obama were about event in the polls before the economic collapse.
Unfortunately, the powers that be may want a war with Iran as a way to rehabilitate BO and raise his numbers during his second term.
You’re absolutely right OldCoastie – I think he thought he’s just have to sit around, pet the dog, eat great food, fly around and speechify for four years and then, Hey, where did this other stuff come from????
I believe he’s not a happy camper, this wasn’t in the job description they gave him.
Love the chart too! Heh.
Although everytime I see a “Dems united” box I scoff. Yeah, right.
By the way, just saw this photo blog — awesome and painful, State of the Union.
http://linhdinhphotos.blogspot.com/
excellent quote…Coke or Pepsi indeed
That is an amazing photo blog.
There is no way that Obama is stepping aside. He will run and win in 2012. Sad, isn’t it? Obama has been the perfect, “Fuck you,” for the Democratic Party. If he’s off the ballot black voters will stay home and if they do a Democrat simply cannot win.
That being said he will get a second term. The people in charge want his weak ass in the White House. They are herding the Republicans so far to the right that you can’t name a candidate who can go through the Republican primaries and win who isn’t batshit crazy.
When the general election comes in 2012 people will once again hold their nose and vote for Obama over some lunatic right wing dickhead. We will have a Republican congress and a Democratic president and when our lords and masters dismantle Social Security the public won’t know who to blame.
I tend to agree and I don’t see Hillary doing what Teddy Kennedy did with Carter. Carter was weakened even more after his primary fight with Kennedy. I can’t see history repeating that scenario. The truth is Hillary is currently on Obama’s team. She has sucked it up and joined him. There really is no other way to look at it. There is one thing that could really shake things up and I do see it as a possibility, a kind of even scarier possibility than four more years of Obama. There has to be a reason all these rich S.O.B.’s are running for so many offices. Maybe one of them wants to take on the office of the presidency in 2012. They have untold millions, etc. It wouldn’t surprise me if some super wealthy person decided to run as an Independent.
Yeah, like Mike Bloomberg.
Bullshit. Black voters will vote their wallets like everyone else. If they don’t, well they make up 12% of the electorate. Women on the other hand are a much greater voting bloc.
People tend to forget that women can stay home and screw the Democrats in a massive way. And the Democrats haven’t exactly gone out if their way to court them. So, my money is on Hillary. She can pull some Republican working women in as well.
Thanks for an injection of sanity into the discussion. Obama can be beaten in a primary.
johnnyboy, on August 11, 2010 at 9:22 am Said:
very astute .
I love the chart, Sanda. In politics, two years can be a long time. You never know what will happen. But I find it hard to imagine that the DNC crowd will allow Hillary to win the nomination. I suppose she could still run in 2016, but that’s a long way off.
I guess I just don’t see electoral politics as a viable road to change in our system anymore. There is just too much corruption. I think we are headed for the end of the American empire. If there is going to be any change, it will be after the entire system come crashing down like the Soviet Union’s did.
I hope I’m wrong, and that doesn’t mean I won’t still try to make a difference in any way I can. I’m just not very optimistic at this point. I think we had a chance in 2008, and it was snatched away from us.
Boston Boomer said:
“I think we had a chance in 2008, and it was snatched away from us.”
I agree. The people who were/are really running the show had already made their choice. What we wanted was beside the point. Remember that comment from Michelle Obama either at or just before the Convention[I’m paraphrasing here]:
“There’s no law in the country that can keep my husband from the Presidency.”
I was absolutely astonished. But I knew then, the fix was in. Barry had many, many handlers and enablers who all were intent on bringing him to the ball. As for the electorate? Either hoodwinked or screwed, the sorry result is the same–a willing errand boy deposited in the WH.
I also share your pessimism. We’re looking at systemic corruption and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
“There’s no law in the country that can keep my husband from the Presidency.”
Yeah, reminds me of GWB’s pronouncement during election night 2008 that he would win Florida, even though Florida had already been declared for Gore.
Long before that GW said his brother assured him he would win Florida. I guess it helps if you have relatives in high office in the state that is contested.
Strange how these Democratic and Republican coincidences/similarities cross one another, eh?
Or as Eliot Spitzer would say: there are no coincidences in politics.
I’ve always thought the tipping point was the 2000 election. The fait accompli was the election of 2008. It probably would have happened sooner but Bill Clinton winning in ’92 was unexpected as was the 19% that Ross Perot managed to slice off the vote.
I think we’ll look back and realize that Clinton was the last “people’s President.” What we’re getting now are corporate clones with “Ds” and “Rs” tattooed on their butts.
Depressing!
See, I think it’s Obama’s narcissism which will get rid of him before 2012. The Repubs can spot one as easily as we can. Expect massive criticisms of Obama to start coming from POC on the right pretty soon. And investigations into wrong-doing back in Chicago. Soon, he’ll be the most criticized man in America, and he won’t take it well. Massive temper tantrums, which will only increase the criticism. And then someone will present him with a way of quietly stepping down that ends up looking good in the press, and he’ll take it for the only small round of applause he’ll get. Or he’ll invoke martial law to get around the whole election thing. Or so goes my little thought experiment as of this morning.
“See, I think it’s Obama’s narcissism which will get rid of him before 2012.”
Your lips to God’s ear, Sandress! The man is an utter disaster.
Obama will do as he’s told, and right now the banksters and robber barons want thim to stay in office and continue driving the country into a spiral of joblessness and despair (this is the plan; as lambert keeps saying, it’s a feature not a bug). So he’ll stay.
But the other members of the Democratic Party aren’t stupid; they know that the Obama admin is utter electoral disaster for the party, and I would expect that the clever ones are making their escape plans already. I would not rule out a primary challenge, especially from one of the new pwoggie heroes like that charlatan Alan Grayson, another smooth talker who gets the pwoggie panties in a bunch and already has them swooning and drooling the way they did over Obama (to paraphrase Dubya: Is our pwoggies learning? Apparently not).
Democrats are really angry, and Gibbs’s comments the other day have sealed the deal for many that I’ve talked to. They won’t vote GOP, and of course a large number of delusionals will still vote Obama, but many of them will just sit it out. A smart “phony progressive” Democrat could well take advantage of that discontent, especially after seeing how easily bamboozled they are–a lesson not lost, for instance, on snake oil salesmen like Grayson and Anthony Weiner.
Personally I no longer care about the fortunes or future of the Democratic Party, with the exception of one or two local candidates whom I’ll continue to support. For several reasons I would not support Hillary if she ran again, even if she ran a primary challenge against Obama — not that the Democratic Party would ever countenance such a thing.
My biggest anxiety right now is war with Iran–which is coming, I guarantee you. I would bet good money on it. If there were a way I could leave the country before that happens I would do it like a shot. That will destroy us.
We think alike. The only difference is that I would back Hillary to the end. She is the only person who could make a difference in the direction of the country.
Agreed, Dario. There’s no guarantee that even a Hillary Clinton could stop the nosedive. But I always thought she was/is our best shot.
On the Colorado primary Ambinder tweets
Clinton’s endorsement of Romanoff made it a race, so Obama 1, Clinton 0 stuff is silly. 45% of CO Dems voted against POTUS’s choice
I have a great sense of the economy. I always have. 2011 is going to be close to depression because we’re heading into a recession from a lower base. If the economy is that bad, I see the possibility of a primary contest. All it takes is one D to do it, and Hillary will second the move. She may not be the first though.
The only thing that may not work for anyone running against Oprecious is a war with Iran. Look for things to get really tense next year. And that’s the “unknown unknown”.
FYI: Rasmussen today:
Obama presidential approval rating is MINUS 22.
Strongly approve: 24%
Strongly disapprove: 46^
Total approval: 43%.
The narcissist-in-chief ain’t lookin good. Wahhhh
Luv it.
Dakinikat, if you are around today I’d like your take on the current piece that’s going around about the Shore Bank funding and how Hillary and Bill are involved – is this the beginning of another way to negate Hill’s run in 2012 from the Republicans?
You didn’t ask me, but I’d guess that you’re right, but I haven’t looked at it at all. Just based on the timing.
Kat, here is a link – this is apparently going around:
From your linked article:
“Because many studies have been exposed as scientific nonsense, people are slowly realizing that man-made global warming is nothing more than a money-generating hoax.”
And the basis of the story is that a whole bunch of people might know each other or attended the same university – not necessarily at the same time. That pretty much tells me all I need to know about the author’s agenda
The whole thing looks like total tripe to me but then I suppose some people might eat tripe and think it is kobe beef. Its happened before.
OT: Oh crap, I’ve gotten an email ostensibly from my own email address which I did not send myself and with a porn subject line (yuck). Nobody else at my house sent it either as I am the only one here capable of using a computer. How the h*ll did that happen and what do I need to do?
you’ve caught a virus – probably malware. If your virus software can’t find it, try malwarebytes – it’s shareware and it’s pretty good, and Kapersky has an online scanner
http://www.kaspersky.com/kos/eng/partner/default/pages/default/check.html?n=1259682592109
If you can’t debug, then try one of the free tech support sites – I used GeekstoGo, and they were great. Took me a couple of days, but the virus I had invited all it’s friends in to party.
Thanks! My antivirus software just found tracking cookies, so will have to try malwarebytes.
HRC never should have accepted SOS. Is she going to quit to run agains the sitting POTUS that appointed her when the war in Afgnstn is going badly? George MacLellan?
I’m glad Hillary accepted SoS. Whether she had taken the position of SoS or not, she’s not going to primary Obama imho.
I agree. It’s not going to happen. Hillary wouldn’t even take her fight for the nomination to the convention. She is committed to the Democratic Party. Unless something very dramatic happens, I don’t expect Hillary to run in 2012, and 2016 is to far off to predict anything. Who knows if our government will still be standing then.
I agree with the pessimistic outlooks. America’s owners would be as happy with a second term for Obama as they would with a first term for his Republican rival. It’s a win/win situation for them.
That said, I also have the feeling that it could be steam engine time. Something extraordinary just might happen in 2012. The American people just might elect their president for the first time in 12 years. Things are going to get rocky this November. I think we’ll need to hang on to our hats.
Agreed. I think the most likely course of events is Obama loses to the GOP in a close race, the corporate masters stay the same. But I also think there’s the possibility of a sudden upsurge in demand for actual accountability, led by the old democratic core. And November is going to be a Blowout.
News post up.
http://www.daybydaycartoon.com/
I love DayByDay.
LOLOLOL.
you remember me. i’m the news talk radio show host in scranton, pennsylvania who gave barack such a hard time on the air during the campaign from deep in the heart of hillary rodham clinton country. hillary’s father hugh is buried here and her brothers, hughie and tony, visit the family cottage at lake winola every year. they’re here now, in fact. on my show yesterday, i publicly drafted hillary for president and announced that i’m backing her for the white house in 2012. i didn’t ask permission or check with party leaders. i just remembered how good politics felt when we were all in this together and free to choose. i told my listeners to forget about this hillary for vice president business. we already got ourselves a vp from scranton – whom i have officially banned from a homecoming because of his bad behavior. i’m a former professional bouncer so i know a bad actor when i see one. i put biden on notice to stay out of scranton until he apologizes for telling lies about having family who worked in the coal mines like my grandfather did for 45 years. so far biden has taken me seriously and hasn’t come home since winning the election. tune in to corbertt today at 3 to talk about how we can persuade hillary that it’s worth her while and ours to step deep into a presidential campaign. listen live on your computer at wilknewsradio.com better yet, give me a call between 3 and 7 p.m eastern time. 570-883-0098 or toll-free only in pennsylvania at 800-437-0098. let me know how you’ve been holding up. despite the scars and open wounds from the last time, we’re still all in this together.