LV vs. RV: The Democrats’ Losing Proposition

 A couple of very interesting polls have come out recently. One shows Barack Obama leading John McCain nationally, and another shows John McCain leading Barack Obama nationally. The difference between these polls? Likely Voters versus Registered Voters.

Obama was ahead 47%-44% among registered voters, down from a 6-percentage point lead he had last month. McCain led 49%-45% among likely voters, reversing a 5-point Obama lead among that group. In both cases, the margin of error is +/—4 points.

What’s going on? Here is how USA Today explains the methodology behind their polling.

To determine whether they were likely voters, poll participants were asked how much thought they had given the election, how often they voted in the past and whether they plan to vote this fall. McCain’s gains came because there was an even number of likely voters from each party. Last month, the Democrats had an 11-point edge. (emphasis added)

Now, there are two ways to look at that astonishing fact. One is that Republicans are starting to energize against Barack Obama. This is, of course, the way that USA Today interprets it.

The other is that Democrats are losing interest in Barack Obama and are planning on either voting down-ticket, staying home, or using the nuclear option (literally?) by voting for John McCain. This is the way I interpret it. I mean, gee whiz, doesn’t that huge drop in support for Obama (11 points in one month) coincide quite interestingly with the formation of a certain group comprised of Democrats who don’t support Obama? Golly, if only I could remember the name of that combine of crazy old ladies…