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Economic “Downs” Have Suddenly Now Turned to Ups?

For a couple of months, the employment numbers were “disappointing.” They fell short of forecasters’ estimates. Who are the forecasters, and why are their estimates so important? I don’t know, but the media loves to use them to fuel their anti-Democratic Party headlines.

So the jobs numbers came out today, and voila, the country added 531,000 jobs, over the estimate of the forecasters! Next time, they will just make their forecasts higher, so that the numbers can fail to meet them? And the August and September numbers were revised upward! Yes, 360,000 more jobs were added than were originally reported for those two months!

That is very good–except that the avalanche of headlines over the last two months that the economy was stalled, that Biden’s plans were failing, were not only incorrect in general, but wrong in the specific. Now, the revised numbers were not out yet then, but these numbers are often revised, so that this potential should always be taken into account. Plus, even if the numbers go up or down in a given month, that does not belie a longer-term trend. Very few economic numbers go straight up. But the media, goaded by the Republicans, never seem to realize or care about that.

Oh, they can now do a new story–if indeed they even care to. But the damage–and there certainly was some damage–caused to the election chances in Virginia and New Jersey,, was already done. Should the media have tried to extrapolate from the general trend, instead of jumping on a month or two of data, which ultimately turned out to be significantly underestimated? Maybe not, but a responsible media would not have written and broadcast story after story about, “Biden facing major problems, as economy stalls.”” “Biden’s presidency in danger of failing completely.” “Republicans seize on bad economic numbers to contend that Biden is incompetent.”

On the day before the Virginia elections, I happened to see Barbara Comstock, a former Congresswoman from Virginia, who has been a critic of Trump. But she is still a stalwart Republican, was very much for Youngkin, and was very excited about the prospects of him winning. Republicans are almost always still Republicans, and we cannot expect them to help us much, with a few exceptions like Bill Kristol, who said that he was voting for McAuliffe. Anyway, Comstock said that “the Biden administration has been a disaster,” as if this should be obvious to everyone.

That is the term (it is like the Republican strategists come up with a term or word, send it out to their forces, and then use it over and over) that we kept hearing, “disaster.” That was wrong on so many levels. In no way has this administration, only ten months in, been a disaster. And now the new and revised jobs numbers show great success. But will the media take the time to tell that story? And if they do, will it just be an aberration which they will fix by reverting to their usual themes?

Stephanie Ruhle, a caring person whom I see as sort of a GHW Bush Republican, someone who was on CNBC, which is filled with free-market proselytizers, with a few decent exceptions such as John Harwood, who may not even be there now, wrote this: “These are tangible Joe Biden/White House accomplishments: 1) Vaccinations (up from) 2 million to 200 million. 2) Jobs created: 5 million. 3) Wages up $2 an hour. 4) Dow up 5,000 points. If Trump had ONE of these, he’s be wall-to-wall Rose Garden ceremonies, prime time speeches and parades.”

That sums it up very well. We are perhaps currently witnessing the newest step on the potential road to “1984,” a Democratic Administration which is successful, but the people are not informed about it, or do not care to know about it, and so they think it is a failure, and they vote against it. Well, it has to be up to Democrats to somehow get the message out, over and over, because if they do not, nobody else will.

It is not bad form, or braggadocio, or arrogant, to tout positive things about your party and administration. Any misstep or brief failure is going to be magnified a thousand times. So you have to create a narrative which puts the daily occurrences into a larger perspective.

But for a number of reasons, almost all involving the Republicans and the media, the set narrative seems to be that while Republicans are determined, and confident, and get things done, the Democrats are wishy-washy, and confused, and always carping among themselves,and don’t get things done. And no mater how many times various Administrations of either party show that this is untrue, the media always reverts to it, like some kind of default system.

It is a real shame that there is, first, the facts; and then, second, how the media spins them. Our side has got to override the media and get the facts and data out there. President Biden can make a speech and show some charts, and they probably won’t cut him off; they always showed the Republican celebrations when they passed the tax cuts for the billionaires,which added about 9 trillion dollars to the deficit.

Democrats almost always win, when they do win, on the economy. So when there is very good news they have to capitalize on it, and stoke a narrative that they are always far better for the economy, and for the financial status of the average man and woman, than the Republicans. And that you elect Republicans at your own peril, even though you might think that since the Democrats improved things so much, you don’t need them any more.