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      Will Sanders be the Democratic nominee for President? Probably. Barring something very unexpected, he’ll have the most delegates. His polling in the big super Tuesday states is ahead of all the other candidates. Right now all Bloomberg is doing is harming the other “centrist” candidates, he’s actually helping Sanders. The risk is that Sanders doesn’t […] […]
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Iran Chaos Strategery

If we go with the Keep It Simple Stupid analysis of the motivation for assassinating General Soleimani, the rationale that immediately comes to mind is that Donald Trump feels like it will benefit him personally in some way.

It could be to bolster his image with the base. Given his American flag tweet without comment, we could see this as a strong guy beating his chest and reasserting American hegemony. Why his base thinks that we, the greatest superpower in the world with the most advanced military weapons and global presence, would ever be perceived as weak is a question for the future students of populist psychological operations and propaganda to research. What is it about Trump that awakens poor self-esteem issues in our fellow Americans?

If the above is true and the base is the target audience, then the impeachment crisis might be having more unpleasant trends in the polling data than we know.

If this is about Trump personally profiting from a crisis in the oil industry, that could explain it.

If it’s about his presidential campaign, then a war where he is seen to be taking on a terrorist arm of the Iranian government might reawaken fear of mortality in the wake of 9/11. The problem with this, and national security experts have already pointed this out, is that Iran is a much bigger, more sophisticated country than either Afghanistan or Iraq and the QODS force is the equivalent of our JSOC. So, Trump has landed in a hornets’ nest and kicked it recklessly. Killing Soleimani would be like taking out Pence, because that’s how the Iranian government is structured.

Trump has made our lives less safe. Stephen Miller types are probably rubbing their hands with sinister grins on their bulbous heads thinking that the fearful voter will turn towards the strong man. Mebbe. Mebbe Not. We shall see. We know that the president met with Rush Limbaugh over the holidays so it might be useful for one of us to put on our hip waders and see what narrative he’s floating today.

Interesting how Esper’s communication office makes it quite clear that this was done at the direction of the President. The Pentagon doesn’t seem to want to take direct responsibility and the CIA appears to be uninvolved. That much is obvious because it has been sidelined by Trump in terms of intelligence and probably wouldn’t have recommended this strategy anyway. They might have suggested something more subtle.

Trump doesn’t do subtle.

You might like that, especially if you’re into black/white thinking and simple, violent, obliterating solutions to complex questions.

You might not like what follows though.

If you see Trump trying to be one with the Saudis, this might do it, though it does warrant mentioning that if the Saudis thought taking out Soleimani was a good idea, they would have done it by now. Or maybe MBS just said, “who will rid me of this meddlesome general??” over dinner with Jared and our intrepid master of everything including mid-East peace went scampering to his FIL to deliver the message.

If it’s to please Putin, mission accomplished! There’s nothing he likes so much as to see the greatest superpower the world has ever known abasing itself globally through the chaotic, unchecked actions of its complete moron of a president who thinks he has unilateral powers to flex his military joystick.

Jeez.

*******************

Welcome to Campaign 2020!

17 Responses

  1. We must start from the position that everything of significance which Trump says is a lie. It has been shown time and again, but somehow a certain amount of people forget it, and want to take him at his word. I don’t believe that there was an imminent danger. I don’t believe that this was done as an emergency decision. Trump’s son tweeted in a way that makes one very sure that he knew about it in advance. Republicans knew. Democrats, as always, were not told. Trump retweeted something from the odious D’Souza, essentially saying that had Trump briefed Schumer, it would have been the same as notifying Iran; i.e., Schumer is a traitor who cares more about Iran than America. Or maybe it was anti-semitism. It is an awful statement, said by a twisted criminal, and Trump is the one who retweeted it.

    The essential truths are that Trump is a wholly evil and stupid person who was put into office by the Russians and by some Far Right religious zealots. If someone told me that Putin’s goal is to destroy America through Trump, I would believe it. If someone told me that Trump is wholly working for Russia, I would believe that as well. There is not a glimmer of hope that anything good will come from anything Trump does or says. He is running the country like a dictatorship. Congress does not count, Democrats are the enemies; and if he gets re-elected, he will start throwing them in jail. He threw away the deal with Iran, and this current situation was inevitable then. He does this now not because there was a sudden imminent danger, but because it deflects from impeachment, and the revelations of him being the one who held up the aid to Ukraine. He will hide behind the flag and reflexive patriotism. Everything he will do will be for himself and his installation of him and his family as permanent dictators. Before the media is destroyed by Trump, perhaps some of them would want to speak up.

    Oh, and a special mention for the hideous Maureen Dowd, whose pathological hatred of Hillary Clinton is so depthless, that she wrote a column in 2016 about how Trump was the dove, Hillary was the hawk. Chris Matthews, I am told, also blathered along those lines during the election. Trump always had the soul of a would-be tyrant. He is making billions from playing the stock market up and down based on his tweets. He is paid off by Saudis, Russians, and anyone else willing to trade money for power over him. I cannot even bear to think about the damage he has already caused to America, and the further damage to come. I can only hope that we still will have an election, and that at least a majority of the Americans in the only states which matter electorally, will figure this out and vote him out. It’s all we’ve got.

    • Trump’s son tweeted in a way that makes one very sure that he knew about it in advance.

      Since from what I understand it was Eric tRump out with the advance tweet, I assume that he must have won the arm wrestling match with Jr. to determine which of them would get to push the button to fire the missile

  2. Well, first let’s acknowledge that a resurgent and belligerent Iran was a predictable (and, in fact, frequently predicted) consequence of Bush’s invasion or Iraq. If Saddam were still alive, Iran and Iraq would still be at each others’ throats and the balance of power in the region would have been preserved without any intervention from us. Doing the Saudi’s bidding in removing a major competitor was a serious mistake. They’re not our friends, and if we were looking to target someone over 9/11 it probably should have been Riyadh rather than Baghdad.

    Having said that, I’m about to say something pretty controversial: I think the attack against Soleimani was both proportionate and entirely legal under the overly-broad AUMF. It’s not like he was a non-combatant or the victim of an entirely unanticipated sneak attack. He was a soldier who orchestrated an attack against US territory (the embassy) and he died as the result of an entirely predictable response. The AUMF provides blanket authorization for military action in Iraq. If Congress didn’t want stuff like this to happen, they should have repealed it during the Obama Administration.

    Maybe the Iranians will escalate and maybe they won’t. The same would be true whether or not the US launched that strike.

    • I could see your POV. But just because he *could* have been taken out, doesn’t mean he *should* have been taken out, especially considering his governmental position. It’s unlikely to get Iran to act in a calm, rational manner in the future. Forget any attempts at diplomacy or agreements. That’s all done now. They’ll double down to become the most belligerent assholes in the region.
      That will pit one autocratic religious leader against a cranky old guy who gets his worldview from his IV infusion of Fox News.
      If we could send them both to an asteroid to fight it out, that would be great. Unfortunately, we do not yet have the technology.
      Oh, and the Saudi’s could go with them for all I care.

  3. Sanders tells us that he was right about being against the Vietnam war, and he is right today about Iran. Well, yes, a lot of us were very much against the Vietnam war, including Bill and Hillary, of course. Now, here is the interesting part: In 1972, Richard Nixon,who had of course continued the war during his entire first term,was running against George McGovern, a fierce opponent of the war for many years. Now, who did Sanders vote for in that election? .See if you can guess, I bet you can!

    Sanders did not vote in that election. He could not even bother to register to vote. Many millions of people dutifully voted for the anti-war candidate in that election, even though they knew it was a hopeless effort. Not Sanders, he was doing ,whatever. He never held a job until 40, when he ran for office, so he wasn’t working, either.

    • With Sanders you can always bet it is about him and his narcissism. That take sounds like Trump.

  4. I wish this song could quit being relevant.

  5. Thank you very much for your insightful post! I really enjoyed reading it and hearing your perspective on this developing event. I have recently published an article on my blog about Trump’s actions from an outsider’s perspective. If you have time, it would be great if you could check out my post and let me know your thoughts! Thanks 🙂

  6. It`s all so Pregnant Donnie stays in the spotlight .

  7. From the peanut gallery.
    Another orchestrated diversion, no matter the cost.

    The Dump has publicly admitted his diversion plot by stating:

    “Obama would have done to get re-elected”

  8. If this is about Trump personally profiting from a crisis in the oil industry, that could explain it.

    Or Russia… of course.

  9. Nice post RD. One other point. Trump reminds me of a 6 year old novice chess player. He makes a move and forgets that the other side has a turn… or that the other side may look at the board in a very different way than he does. In his mind every move he makes is checkmate– a point of view that may have some validity in domestic politics but not so much internationally.

    BTW I seem to remember that the ancient Persians invented chess. Not so nice for Trump, or for the US.

    Regarding both this post and the worst decade post: this one seems to have gotten off to an evil start as well. Then again, for some time — at least since 1968 — each decade seems to be worse than the one preceding…

    • It is thought that the ancestor game of modern chess came through Persia, but originated in India.

      en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess

  10. I found this interesting suggestion on Wonkette: 😈

    “All you guys, thinking Iran should hack and delete Trump’s Twitter. Such small potatoes. They should hack the IRS, and release all of his tax returns AND the records from that trip to Walter Reed that we still don’t know anything about.”

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