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Iran Chaos Strategery

If we go with the Keep It Simple Stupid analysis of the motivation for assassinating General Soleimani, the rationale that immediately comes to mind is that Donald Trump feels like it will benefit him personally in some way.

It could be to bolster his image with the base. Given his American flag tweet without comment, we could see this as a strong guy beating his chest and reasserting American hegemony. Why his base thinks that we, the greatest superpower in the world with the most advanced military weapons and global presence, would ever be perceived as weak is a question for the future students of populist psychological operations and propaganda to research. What is it about Trump that awakens poor self-esteem issues in our fellow Americans?

If the above is true and the base is the target audience, then the impeachment crisis might be having more unpleasant trends in the polling data than we know.

If this is about Trump personally profiting from a crisis in the oil industry, that could explain it.

If it’s about his presidential campaign, then a war where he is seen to be taking on a terrorist arm of the Iranian government might reawaken fear of mortality in the wake of 9/11. The problem with this, and national security experts have already pointed this out, is that Iran is a much bigger, more sophisticated country than either Afghanistan or Iraq and the QODS force is the equivalent of our JSOC. So, Trump has landed in a hornets’ nest and kicked it recklessly. Killing Soleimani would be like taking out Pence, because that’s how the Iranian government is structured.

Trump has made our lives less safe. Stephen Miller types are probably rubbing their hands with sinister grins on their bulbous heads thinking that the fearful voter will turn towards the strong man. Mebbe. Mebbe Not. We shall see. We know that the president met with Rush Limbaugh over the holidays so it might be useful for one of us to put on our hip waders and see what narrative he’s floating today.

Interesting how Esper’s communication office makes it quite clear that this was done at the direction of the President. The Pentagon doesn’t seem to want to take direct responsibility and the CIA appears to be uninvolved. That much is obvious because it has been sidelined by Trump in terms of intelligence and probably wouldn’t have recommended this strategy anyway. They might have suggested something more subtle.

Trump doesn’t do subtle.

You might like that, especially if you’re into black/white thinking and simple, violent, obliterating solutions to complex questions.

You might not like what follows though.

If you see Trump trying to be one with the Saudis, this might do it, though it does warrant mentioning that if the Saudis thought taking out Soleimani was a good idea, they would have done it by now. Or maybe MBS just said, “who will rid me of this meddlesome general??” over dinner with Jared and our intrepid master of everything including mid-East peace went scampering to his FIL to deliver the message.

If it’s to please Putin, mission accomplished! There’s nothing he likes so much as to see the greatest superpower the world has ever known abasing itself globally through the chaotic, unchecked actions of its complete moron of a president who thinks he has unilateral powers to flex his military joystick.

Jeez.

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