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      There’s been a vast amount of foolishness in the discussion of this. Labour lost for two main reasons: Their base was split by Brexit, and in a real way, no “positioning” could avoid this. There was a vast propaganda campaign against Corbyn in particular and Labour in general. What urban liberals don’t seem to understand […]
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When it rains it pours edition

The floodgates are open. It sounds like many staffers are leaking what they know to the press. Maybe in solidarity with the Whistleblower? Maybe to cover their own asses? Maybe it has to do with Trump calling the whistleblower’s sources spies that should be dealt with?

Something must have triggered this. I suspect it all went south when Dan Coates resigned. It just seemed like just another Trump season but under the surface, the dam was cracking.

This is going to be an interesting weekend. Any guesses how long Trump holds out? Put your estimate in the comments.

This is an open thread.

Hang in there, Niles. It’s almost over.

34 Responses

  1. Who’s surprised? Trump’s conversations with MBS and Putin were concealed.
    https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/27/politics/white-house-restricted-trump-calls-putin-saudi/index.html

  2. Can one OD on Adderall and/or Big Macs? Asking for a friend. What would happen to this country if trump is not physically or mentally able, or even alive, to be impeached or tried in the Senate? Would all the inquiries end? Would the GOP survive to finish us all off? Also, i wonder if that super secret server has any evidence that the Russians rigged the election for trump in 2016…..

  3. Next March, if the Republicans are going to get rid of him. If they aren’t, then he just goes along to the election, and hopes to run against Warren and “Socialism.” Beware of Pence and/or Haley as polished up substitutes to gull the voters again. It’s the Republican Party, not just Trump, which has to be removed from power. And of course they have no intention of letting that happen out of guilt or remorse or some kind of character change. “Clean Cups!” said the Mad Hatter.

    All that said, while the last few days scarcely make up for the political misery of the last three years, I must admit that it has been heartening to see this. One of any of the fifty things that Trump and his allies have done, would have gotten any Democratic President impeached and convicted. But we have two sets of rules here, obviously, and we must take whatever we can get, at least for now.

    • The pundits are a complete miss on Haley. She’s just as Trumpy as Trump, she comes from a deep red state that has one of the worst records on almost everything in the country. I have serious doubts she could be elected nationwide.

      • Ga6thDem, that is interesting to hear. I really don’t know much about Haley, but she is the darling of the pundits, I suppose because she is attractive, is more polite than Trump, and doesn’t seem to be as much of a hater as most of the Republicans.

        I am perhaps too pessimistic on this subject, but I am afraid that because of the power of right-wing media, and all the Republican money which has been spent during the last decades, the average voter is afraid of “liberals,” and wants a comfortable conservative like Reagan or either Bush, as long as they are not as awful as Trump. At least in terms of the electoral college, which greatly negates the popular vote. We watched GW Bush be almost inarticulate in his first campaign, have no plans, no ideas, but the media preferred him to Gore, who had a wealth of experience, and much better ideas. From a distance, Haley seems to be a better version of that. If people would learn to vote based on the ideas and plans of the candidates, and if the media would cover that, we would be much better off!

        And as much as we need to get Trump out, we need to somehow crush the entire Republican Party based on their awful positions on everything, which right now is understandably being put to the side. Environment, guns, abortion, healthcare; they are terrible on all of them. There is not one good Republican anywhere, certainly not the leaders. We have seen how eight years of at least a decent President was essentially undone by two years of Republican control of all branches. How does that get fixed, without a veritable landslide? And who out there can give us that? A month ago, maybe Biden/Klobuchar, or now perhaps Klobuchar/Bennett? Now, I don’t know who can deliver a sweeping victory. Hillary actually would, but that is not happening, alas.

      • Ga6thDem, I appreciate your perspective on Haley. I don’t know much about her, but the Republicans and the pundits love her. A staunch conservative who can hide it under the general attractiveness, and not being an absolute horror like Trump.

        I do worry that decades of Republican control of media, and pouring money into marketing, has gotten the country, at least in terms of the electoral college, to where they want a faux compassionate conservative, like GW Bush was sold. Haley fits that. Chris Matthews raves about her for no cogent reason, as if she is the answer to all that ails America. If people learned to vote based on policies and ideas of the candidates, and if the media gave them the information to do that, we would be far better off as a country. How many times have we seen someone at least credible and dedicated like Gore, lose to someone who could scarcely articulate a policy, and knew virtually nothing. like Bush? Trump was a worse version of Bush, and Hillary a much better version of Gore, and yet evil and stupidity got elected, at least the way the votes were suppressed and miscounted.

        • Well, considering the fact that poll after poll shows the maximum GOP base as around 40% of the country their numbers are not there. I’m sure the pundits would be quite taken with Haley considering the fact that she’s a woman and a minority but also remember that the GOP base has told her to “go back to India”. So don’t be too sure that a bigoted misogynistic base is going to show up for Haley. So she might not even break 40% in a general election.

  4. William,

    If trump’s people were really afraid of Biden, do you think they would tell us? You label Warren as a socialist. Biden is republican lite.

    Warren has taken the lead despite all of the naysayers in the media who clearly favor Biden, despite his gaffs and inability to respond to complicated issues without coming off as out of touch. Like Bernie, I think a doddling old guy, like Biden, is the real risk if we can just take a moment and stop putting gender above common sense AGAIN. I refuse to accept the media’s telling me who should be the nominee again because they have been wrong with their choices more than they’ve been right. I have faith in the American people who voted in larger numbers for Hillary because she was the people’s choice. I also believe they still want the kind of change that can benefit all Americans, which Hillary offered us and now Warren. Biden does not strike me as a person who will fight for us when the going gets tough and will fold like a deck chair when it does. I believe Warren will fight for us.

    When trump is impeached by the House and his actions involving Ukraine (and hopefully, we find out what was said in those other calls to Putin and the Saudi Royal family, which were secreted away too) will make trump a weak candidate. By then, EVEN A MERE WOMAN COULD DEFEAT HIM!

    Clearly, if people still believe after all we’ve witnessed in the last 8 years that a qualified woman still cannot win the WH, then we are falling for the same clap trap we did in 2012 and 16.

    Warren inspires me in many of the same ways as Hillary did (biden does not). Warren is smart, does her homework, knows the issues and knows what she’s talking about, fights for the people and is fearless in that fight.

    I look forward to the debate in October.

    • Kathleen, I will just say that I have no objections to Warren being President. My concerns are that she is the easiest, besides Bernie, who is a Socialist, to paint with that label. I am not a Biden fan, but I really think that Warren might lose this crucial election, because people do noy want to lose their current healthcare. When ACA passed, it cost the Democrats hundreds of national and local elections.

      It would be fun to debate the relative merits of the Democratic candidates, but probably not the right time to do it here now. I do know that the Republicans will run ad after ad against Warren’s rather quixotic “plans.” She hasn’t yet told us where the tax money to fund the M4A is coming from. I am not a big Kamala fan, but I have decided that she is a safer candidate than Warren. I am afraid of McGovern redux, though we would not lose by that kind of margin. It is a strange race so far, with the polls showing so much split; Warren and Biden at around 25%, various others. No majority, and I wonder if anyone will get one before the convention. This is such a great potential chance for Democrats, and I want someone who will manage to bring in Senate and state legislature candidates, too. My concern is that Warren has no pull in the South or even Arizona, that she would have to win all the Hillary states, plus the three we were cheated in, so that there is no margin at all. Independent of whom we run, we know that we need to win the Senate, or there will be no desperately necessary bills passed with McConnell there.

      • William,

        I don’t know if you realize the extent to which not-male and/or not-white voters are fed up with the male owned media’s selection of candidates.

        The vast majority of women of all races. including white, in this country have had it, given the flagrant sexism of the 2016 media and the presidency that media helped install.

        So have the majority of Latino and African American men, given the flagrant racism this presidency has shown after election.

        That right there is a majority. Biden does nothing at all for them.

        • Earlynerd,

          Well said and true. I suppose it’s difficult for a white male to really understand why women are fed up with the male bias shown by the media every election, particularly against women running for the presidency, since they have never been the recipient of such bias and still believe in their own entitlement, despite all of the “progress” which the media declares has been made toward “equality” between the genders. The proof is how Hillary was treated and how they are continuing to undermine the women running this time around for president despite all of the protests by women ahd the “MeToo” movement.

          Warren is NOT a socialist but she has been labeled as such by the republicans and Wall Street who hate her and the media goes right along. The difference between Warren and Sanders (who has always declared himself as a democratic socialist) Warren never has and Sanders offers NEW POLITICS while Warren offers NEW POLICIES. The democratic socialists in the party want Sanders NOT Warren for that reason.

          Another important fact which should not be ignored is that a progressive political group that backed Bernie Sanders in 2016 is backing Elizabeth Warren this time around. Bernie’s crowd is not happy about it, but there is that “entitlement” attitude again expecting them to just follow him blindly this time around too. THEY MUST BE DIFFERENT OR THEY WOULD HAVE SIMPLY ENDORSED SANDERS AGAIN. The primary reasons for the endorsement for Warren instead is because she’s got a record on housing, fighting the big banks, creating the CFPB, having accountability, having people actually attack her for her leadership in that regard, and I think that means something to people,” she said. “We care about getting in early and organizing for what our members and institutions decided as a whole … and they decided to endorse Elizabeth Warren.

          People are responding to her because she believes “markets should have a cop on the beat and have real rules and everybody follows them,” she continued. She believes in a level playing field. And as long as we’ve got that then we will get the best out of markets because it means the people who come up with great ideas, who work hard are the ones who will prosper, not simply those who were born into wealth. THAT’S CAPITALISM AT ITS BEST!

        • I will vote for Biden in the general election if he wins the nomination, but I would prefer Warren or Harris. Not Sanders, though, and not only because I think he was one of the many factors which combined to put Benedict Donald in the White House–which, thanks to the Grifter-In-Chief, is now the White House Of Ill Repute–but also because, like Biden, St. Bernard has one foot in the grave and the other foot on a banana peel.

          • And no healthy penchant for hot sauce or a tough workout schedule, like HRC and RBG.

          • Ivory Bill,

            If the media is able to drag biden over the finish line to the nomination (much like they did with obama), of course, I would vote for him to get trump out of the WH. In the meantime, I will continue to donate to Warren’s campaign and will do volunteer work for her. I really like Harris too and if she rises to the top, I will support and work for her. My heart is just not into biden as our nominee. He does not inspire me nor does he give me any confidence that he will have the mental capacity and drive necessary to fight for us the way I believe Warren will do given the chance.

            I did not support sanders in 2016 and find him even more repugnant now than I did then (if that’s possible).

  5. This is interesting:

    Rthugs blocked the FEC Chair publication of a draft rule prohibiting foreign election interference. Actually, they blocked the whole weekly digest in order to suppress this.

    So the chair Ellen Weintraub just tweeted it out. Way to pull a reverse baby-fingers!

    https://t.co/j7dfrrb0Xv

    (h/t @Stellaa,@PoliticusSarah)

  6. I have no guess as to how long Trump holds on but I have to say he’s certainly been proven to be a national security threat. Truly if the GOP cared an iota about the country they would be working to get rid of him right now. However they really don’t care about the country. They only care about the voting base that smears feces all over themselves.

    I think it was Evan Meacham who said the damn has broken and now it’s “safe” to come forward. So there is going to be more and more every week until he resigns or is removed from office. I mean we’ve got like 2 1/2 years of stuff he’s been doing in office that has been hidden from the public.

  7. I wonder if anyone saw the story about the man from Missouri who drove all the way to California, and then set 13 brushfires by lighting pieces of paper and throwing them out the window. That is directly due to Trump’s continual attacks on California and its Democratic officials. I can only wish that the authorities who fortunately caught him because a citizen was alert enough to get the license plate, would ask him why he wanted to drive out here to set fires.

  8. I have not checked the presidential betting lines for a week or so, and now I am very surprised to see that Warren is even money to win the nomination, while Biden is almost 4-1, and no one else is even close to that. Warren had been around 2-1 a couple of weeks ago.

    My feeling is that if Warren is the nominee, we are more likely to lose than with any other candidate except Sanders or Gabbard, who have no chance to be nominated. If the Democrats end up picking the one candidate who is the most likely to lose, and we end up with Trump again, or Pence, or some other awful person, It will be infinitely depressing. Of course, I could be wrong, and Warren could win a convincing victory, but there are many things against her doing that. Most likely, she could eke out a victory without coattails, or she could lose.

    Remember, the popular vote is not the electoral college. It is estimated by some that the Democrat could win the popular vote by 5,000,000, and still lose the electoral vote. That is because of the imbalance which favors the rural areas in crucial states. The keys are the Midwest, and then the possibility of winning a new state, such as Arizona or Georgia or even Texas. I don’t think that Warren has any strength in the latter three, nor would she win Ohio, and likely not Iowa. So then she has to win all the Hillary states plus the three we barely lost, for whatever reasons. That is a very narrow path to victory.

    We have other candidates who could win handily; those include Klobuchar, probably Bennett and Bullock, but none of these is getting anywhere. We are going to pick someone whose centerpiece is getting rid of ACA, changing all health plans to a M4A? We couldn’t just run against Trump’s corruption, on the environmental dangers, on gun safety, then get into office and do some other things, if we somehow can win the Senate? Is Warren likely to help us win Senate seats in TX, NC, KY, KS, IA? No. So what are we doing?

    This is the election which we absolutely must win, and must win by a substantial margin which is essential not only for the Senate seats, but in the crucial state legislative races which set the gerrymandering for the next ten years. Odds are not dispositive, but the people who make these are not stupid. If we have already gotten to the point where we have only two candidates,and the Republicans have managed to damage one of them for nothing, thus fixing it so they get to run against our weakest national candidate, we have learned nothing, we run a terrible risk of losing the country forever. As I said the other day, if someone guaranteed me that Warren would be President, I would be okay with that. But for her to be by far the leading Democratic candidate now, is chilling, in my view of the electoral landscape. I hope I am wrong about this. The goal, now more than ever, is to win the election, get rid of the Republicans, not pick the most exciting candidate. This would be the ultimate victory of the Left, and its Bernie Bros, their insane revenge against Hillary. Win the nomination, and lose the election, then go back to their video games or social media and bitterly complain about it for the next thirty years, or until the social media and free speech is shut off by the fascists.

    • William,

      I heartily disagree that Warren would lose, if nominated. Here’s why.

      I recommend everyone check out the prediction of the 2020 presidential election offered by Dr. Rachel Bitecover, an apolitical social scientist at the Wason Center, who accurately predicted the 42 seat House flip win by Democrats in 2018. She also accurately predicted that Orange County, which had been Reagan Country for decades, would turn blue. Her model relies on a different approach than that used by conventional election forecasting models: Cook, Crystal Ball, RealClear, and Inside Elections. Her model was more accurate in 2018.

      She states, in part:

      “Democratic hand wringing over which candidate is the one who can win against Trump is myopic, according to Bitecofer. Many Democrats think that identifying and talking about health care, education, and other policies made all the difference in 2018 and will make all the difference in 2020. That thinking does not factor in the real reason that 2018 was such a rout for Republicans. Bitecofer’s data analysis points to something more motivating- namely, Emotion.”

      She goes on to say: “Terrified’ Americans will vote in huge numbers in 2020 for whoever wins the Democratic nomination. It matters very little who that nominee is (except for Bernie Sanders because he is so far left). Any other Democrat will win the presidential election in 2020. The Democrat will win 278 votes to 197 votes in the Electoral College because of “negative partisanship”. The Democratic Party will not be divided once there is a nominee. Democrats will be strongly united out of fear of Trump.

      This is the link to the entire article: https://markinreport.com/2019/08/23/trump-will-lose-in-2020-heres-why/

      IF EVER THERE WAS A TIME NOT TO BE MYOPIC AND VOTE OUT OF FEAR BUT INSTEAD FOR A CANDIDATE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN, WHO INSPIRES YOU ENOUGH TO FIGHT FOR THEM AND THEIR PROPOSALS, THAT TIME IS NOW.

      • Well, we will have to turn out in huge numbers to overcome the rigging of the elections by the GOP and Russia (but I repeat myself).

      • Kathleen, it is a worthwhile analysis for discussion . Without having read this article yet (but I will), I note that there are 538 electoral votes, so that if Democrats get 278, Republicans get 260. It takes 270 to win, so Professor Bitcover is predicting the narrowest of victories. Probably this is every state Hillary won, plus PA, WI and MI, and maybe one more? As tight as a tick on whatever.

        I think that the possibility is there for Democrats to win a more substantial victory, but it would take the right candidate. And there are many vagaries, obviously. Ohio used to be much in play, but not now. I have read that it has become more like neighboring Kentucky. Wisconsin is uncomfortably risky, with the Republicans having taken over that state, up until 2018’s elections. It used to be an almost sure thing for Democrats. Pennsylvania has almost always been a battle. We’ll win Michigan this time. But voter suppression is a major threat. Winning a midterm election because of anger and fear, does not necessarily predict the result of greater turnout in the Presidential election. Recall Republicans taking over the House in ’94, but losing the Presidential election of ’96. Republicans crushing Democrats in 2010, but not being able to win the Presidential election in 2012, then picking up more seats in 2014.

        Democrats almost always win the popular vote now, but we have lost the Presidency twice in 16 years because of the EC bias against populous states. So to me, it seems that we have to find a way to change the map, and turn some states Blue. Virginia was one, but Hillary barely won it even with Kaine as VP. That is no sure thing, but we need it. Arizona looks like a potential, but it’s still difficult. Texas? If Beto were the nominee, we would. Biden might as well. I am a fan of Beto, not Biden, particularly, but the issue is trying to win Texas, which would cement a Democratic EC map for years, if it turned. Georgia is another one. And my fear is that a liberal from Massachusetts with some exciting but risky plans, would not win any of those states, whereas someone else might.

        Maybe polls will start showing differently., but Warren is not likely to win any Southern states, including Florida and North Carolina, states which Bill Clinton won, and I think Obama did as well. And if she cannot win them, we only have one narrow EC path; plus we will not win the Senate, because we need someone who can spearhead Democratic wins in states like TX, KS, NC, AZ. If Warren barely wins the EC, but we don’t win the Senate, she will get no bills through, because McConnnell will block all of them, plus they have the filibuster. We MUST win the Senate, and thus, even though I would consider myself an FDR and Hillary liberal, I would want us to nominate someone who could convince enough Independents to go with our side this time, so that we could win the Presidency, and the Senate, and major statehouses. I have been very frustrated at the fact that we cannot elect a true liberal as President, but this does not seem the right election to try that. Win this Presidency, take over the Senate, pass major legislation on climate and guns and other things, and it would be easier next time, with perhaps one of the Congresswomen who won in ’18, and are so impressive this term.

  9. I’m with you William, we need to focus on the electoral college, we know the Russians and the Rethugs will. i am quite frankly surprised that Harris isn’t neck and neck with Warren; losing Biden causes me no discomfort. I plan to vote for Klobuchar, assuming she is on the ballot. TBH, i am not excited about any of the candidates and no matter who wins, he or she will never come close to Hillary for me. It’s all downhill from here thanks to the complacency and gullibility of the American people and the malignant GOP.

    • Cats, I was certain that we would not come up with a candidate close to Hillary in knowledge and wealth of experience. And we will not, for a long time, if that. And all that had to happen. And yes, GOP evil, and then stupid voters who decided that it would be fitting to stay home of vote for a third party candidate. And all those people who believed utter lies and distortions about Hillary, and still do to this day. And Comey, of course And now we’ve got this, and very few ways out of it.

      I am just surprised that so many of our large field is essentially eliminated before the first caucus. And I totally agree, that the field is not very appealing. But then candidates like Hillary do not come along more than once or twice in a generation. Hillary and Bill were the two. Obama at least was congenial and appealing for many to vote for.

  10. My God, things are moving so fast, my head is swimming. Pompeo was on the Ukraine call.

    • None of them thought there was anything wrong with it. Too many people agree, they think that it was okay that Russia got Trump elected and that there is nothing beyond seeing it all as a game where they are winning over the demonized libs, They go back to the emails, uranium, anything which will contribute to a “they do these things, too” lie. They’ll never stop. One can only hope that there are enough people who still have a true sense of morality, not the fake kind which is used to justify anything that they choose to do.

      • I could care less about the morons that believe that garbage. We’re going to have to do denazification like Germany did after WW2. These people are so incredibly brainwashed and messed up there is no reaching them. The best we can hope is that some of them don’t show up to vote.

    • And Barr went to Italy and Austria to try to shake down their intelligence services.

      • And what is Piggy Barr’s gain in all of this? An offer he can’t refuse?
        Or to become unforgettable Roy Cohn alike?

        • Somewhere Barr was described as the Republican Sin Eater. Apparently, this is his third effort to hoover up GOP wrongdoings, covering up their misdeeds, hiding their culpability. If true, i am sure that he will be well rewarded for his service to the white patriarchy. Burying the Mueller Report was just the tip of his spear this time. I would like him impeached along with many others but that would take more time than we have if we are to survive. Tragic.

  11. I harken back to RD’s post about the Clintons being well regarded by friends and colleagues and family and Trump being despised by almost all who have crossed paths with him.

  12. William,

    I hope you do read the article. It puts things in perspective that many have not considered when making a choice on which candidate to support. Also, as much as I would love to have Hillary as our president, she is not running. I refuse to undermine the other women running, specifically, Warren, Harris and Klobuchar by expecting them to be Hillary. Besides, we’ve had some pretty mediocre male presidents in the last several decades (except for Bill) and I believe any of these 3 women would have done a better job than they did.

    I also believe that trump is being given way too much power over the electorate’s resolve to get him out of power, as well as given too much credence to the media’s opinion that biden is the ONLY one who could beat him (based on the same old same old). The damn is breaking on the many, many high crimes and misdemeanors committed by trump and his administration and that will play a huge roll in his being defeated. Hell, the way things are going, maybe the first female president will be Nancy Pelosi!

    We still have a ways to go and as things play out, I believe trump will be exposed for the corrupt, despot he truly is. This will free the people to vote for the candidate they believe in and are willing to fight for. We must not vote for a candidate out of fear. That is a recipe for failure, even if that candidate is elected. In order to achieve the kind of change this country so desperately needs and is hungry for, we will need a true champion who has the energy, intellect, vision and resolve to clean up the HUGE mess left by trump and his cult, as well as one who is running on being a champion for average Americans. If we are being intellectually honest as to which of the top tier candidates could rise to that occasion and succeed, I just do not see how joe biden is that person. Based on what I’ve seen so far of the candidates running, I do, however, believe Warren, Harris and even Klobuchar could be.

    Bottom line, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity. Putting another old white guy in the WH is hardly change worth fighting for, just something we settled for.

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