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Updating the model

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight has a new model out on the 2018 elections. He gives Democrats a 3 in 4 chance of taking back the House. In the latest podcast, the FiveThirtyEight team discuss where the fault lines are this year and why the Trump coalition is tenacious but can’t afford to lose any members.

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In other news, the jury is still out in the Manafort trial, Michael Cohen is about to be charged, George Pappadopolous is going to jail for lying to the Federales, and Mueller sure is finding a whole lotta witches.

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By request, Air Supply. I think someone is trying to guess my age. Give up.

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3 Responses

  1. Oh, I was just writing about some of this below! I watched Dave Wasserman of Cook Report be interviewed. He said that if the Democrats gained eight points in every state’s results from 2016, Democrats would win 44 House seats and lose 4 Senate seats! Of course it does not work that way, but it shows how the Republicans have disproportionate advantages in the Senate, because each state gets the same amount of senators. We are a bit fortunate that there are actually a few Democratic senators in deep Red states like WV and ND and IN. But if those states start to vote as Red as they do for President, then there may be a permanent Republican majority in the Senate–UNLESS some states like NC and GA start going Democratic. This whole system, so much fun to learn about in school, is actually ridiculous in the modern era; it allows a minority faction of angry rural conservatives to have disproportionate power. But it is virtually impossible to fix this.

    There is this movement wherein states sign onto an agreement that their electoral votes must go to the candidate who wins the national popular vote. The idea is that the agreement only goes into effect if states with 270 EVs total sign on; right now it is not that far away. That would be some improvement, but does not fix the Senate problem. We saw what happened when a Far Right-controlled Senate stopped Obama from even getting a hearing on his Supreme Court nominee. And Burr and McCain vowed that Hillary would never get any Court nominee approved. This country is in a very bad political place; no Founder anticipated such unreasonableness from one branch or group. But to be on a more optimistic side, we will hope to at least take the House. The dangers are of course the Russian interference (there is evidence of them hacking in two CA districts, against the Democrat, of course; and then in FL, going after Nelson), plus the vote suppression. The hopeful news is that if we somehow overcome this and win both the House and major governorships and state legislatures, we can reform the voting systems in those states–unless the Gorsuch and Kavanaugh Court doesn’t let them.

  2. Trump is descending into Mad King territory, threatening everyone who criticizes him with having their security clearance revoked. He will probably start handing out pardons to everyone. The worst news would be if one Trumpian juror hangs the Manafort case; at which time Trump will pardon Manafort prospectively, saying that he has suffered enough. The DC case is the one where Manafort’s work for Trump comes into play, and Trump does not want that evidence out. If Manafort is convicted on most charges in VA, then a pardon might be more dangerous for him, but he’ll still probably do it. Trump should be impeached just for his actions in praising Manafort on the air, obviously trying to obstruct justice and taint the jury.

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