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I’ll tell you what happened. :-[

The data analysts at FiveThirtyEight did a partial review on Hillary’s new book, “What Happened”. For the most part, they agree with her assessment. Check out the podcast if you have a chance. Here are some highlights and my own take from a fairly dedicated campaign worker’s point of view:

1.) Sexism was definitely involved.

2.) She had a 4-6 point lead coming into the home stretch before the Comey letter. By it itself, the Comey letter might not have sunk her. The other things are what narrowed her lead to a few points making her vulnerable to Comey’s shenanigans.

3.) She was wrong candidate for the times. I would have to disagree here. When your opposition is a lying, sociopathic, incompetent, racist, sexist pussy grabbed, then competence alone makes you the right candidate for the times. This should be obvious to anyone who is capable of thought.

4.) Whatever is written in the two weeks after the election as a narrative usually sticks, which leads to…

5.) The misperceptions of Wisconsin and Michigan as Hillary’s downfall.

Let’s unpack that last one for a moment. Nate Silver says what I’ve always thought about this. Wisconsin and Michigan ONLY became important once she had lost Florida and Pennsylvania. And where did Hillary spend the bulk of her time in the last days of the campaign? Pennsylvania and Florida. Strategically, it made no sense to go to Wisconsin.

By the way, NJ RARELY gets a visit from the candidates. Could NJ have gone red? I don’t know. There’s always that possibility. Look at who they voted for for Governor for eight years. But NJ has a gigantic problem with property taxes, which every governot has promised to fix but fails to deliver so the voters are always switching parties to try the one that works. Politics are local in NJ. Nevertheless, NJ went overwhelmingly for Clinton despite the fact that it was slighted AND had experienced a severe contraction of its economy in the aftermath of the loss of the small molecule R&D industry. Presumably, NJ is just smarter than Wisconsin.

538 says that prior to the 2016 election, there was some evidence that The rust belt was going more Republican. There’s probably not a whole lot Hillary could have done about MI and WI. Even Obama didn’t go there in 2012 and Hillary managed to get more votes than Obama got in 2012 overall.

No, what the analysts at 538 say had a disproportionate effect on Hillary’s loss was the obsession in the press, especially the New York Times, on her email. They say in comparison with Trump’s scandals, there was nothing even remotely close as far as criminality, unethical behavior or bad intent.

They say that given the horrible outcome, it’s natural for the press to be reluctant to acknowledge its role but that until it does, there will be a lot of anger about 2016 that isn’t going to go away.

More later…

*********************************

Once upon a time…

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18 Responses

  1. Someone jostled me on the way off the bus, phone fell out of pocket, phone is smashed. I’m going to need stitches if I don’t take it to the Apple Store today. Fun.

    Someone on the elevator was wearing Victor and Rolf’s Flower Bomb which is so sickly sweet it makes your teeth hurt.

    It’s not going to be a great day.

  2. Basically, she says she is a realist and can’t lie either directly (like the buffoon) or by omission (like the Bernie fucker) even if it meant getting elected for president and I agree. She is for an evolved populace and she did get the majority, but for the electoral college and the low IQ brigade. Oh, Comey too! That fucker, I saw the effect of his second letter, up close in person at a party — women were like, there it goes again. FUCK NYT!

    {woke up at 4 am and fired up the iphone — never put your phone by your bedside — and could not stop watching this interview}

  3. The thing about MI and WI was a red herring, artificially contrived by the media to cover their ass. NYT knew Manafort sent trump over there and something was happening and she didn’t go there, so they latched on to it.

  4. Eureka! I know why that fucker Bernie has not said anything about Russian meddling and even voted against renewing sanctions (he and Rand Paul were the only two to vote against, think about it).

    Bernie wants a little help from the Russians to win when he runs in 2020. That is it!

  5. Chris Cillizza and Jake Tapper, Chuck Todd, Andrea Mitchell and others will never admit their roles in the election. Never. Every time I see Cillizza I want to slap those lady glasses right off of his face.

    • Yeah, mfers! Guilty conscience is a terrible thing. Add Lauer to that list. His question: Why didn’t you win, isn’t it all your fault?

      what they don’t say:
      1. Comey
      2. Russian fake news attack on Facebook and elsewhere; for gods sake they were conducting FB events on immigration in 2015
      3. EMAILS NYT media motherfuckers
      4. Fucking Bernie and his dumb supporters
      5. Lunatic incompetent con artist with mob Russia
      ties
      6. Democratic voters suppression
      7. Russia Russia Russia and their puppet, she told you so!

    • I’m not crazy about Maggie haberman and the other NYT political reporters. I’m starting to wonder if the reason why the Times axed Jill Abramson is because she might have been fair to HRC where as whatshisname, the one with the penis, would have no trouble going after her.

      • I think Abramson wrote positive op ed in support of Hillary. So you may be right. That bitch Maggie Haberman, ugh I want to puke every time I see her name.

  6. This (Hillary’s preferability) should be obvious to anyone who is capable of thought.</blockquote.

    Well, there's your problem right there… 😡

  7. Off-topic: 18 years now but I still miss the Moon… 😉

  8. The print and broadcast news media did the same to Al Gore back in 2000. Type “How he got there” into your search bar to read Bob Somerby’s chronicling of news media malfeasance that gave us Bush the Lesser, 911, and ISIS.

    • Yes. the sigh, the sigh and ridiculing him by falsely saying he said he invented the Internet and so on. The media gave us Bush then.

    • And add in the stupid Nader twits who did not learn their lesson in 2000 only to repeat it again in 2016. This is why I say we have to form a new coalition without them. They are nothing but poo flinging babies who sit home or vote 3rd party if they don’t get their way.

      • Meanwhile, on the left side of this column, Ian Welsh of the CDS Left and his troop of droogs are exercising their white male privileges again. I do not recommend clicking it unless you have swallowed a non-corrosive poison, and so need an emetic.

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