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While we wait for a Voting Strategy post, SUSA reported what would happen in this election


IT’s not just going to be PUMAs saying “I told you so”.  From the ever reliable SUSA:

McCain 510 Electoral Votes, Obama 28 … How the Map Looked Exactly 2 Years Ago

SurveyUSA Breaking News – 17 hours ago

Exactly two years ago, SurveyUSA completed interviews with 600 voters in every state (30,000 total interviews), asking them how they would vote in a 2008 Presidential Election between John McCain and Barack Obama. Based on those interviews, SurveyUSA was able to report that:

In November 2006, Obama carried …

  1. His home state of Illinois.
  2. His birth state of Hawaii.
  3. The District of Columbia.

In November 2006, Obama got 28 total electoral votes.

In November 2006, John McCain carried 48 states, and rolled up 510 electoral votes.

How far has Barack Obama come in 24 months?

We’ll know for sure Tuesday night.

And for any PUMA that feels sad, please know that to do the right thing takes courage and conviction.   Do not reward the Obama Campaign and the 2008 DNC with tears.  Reward them by voting against him.

What we are doing today reminds me of Murder on the Orient Express, and Samuel Rachett is the 2008 DNC. Your dagger is your vote – so go VOTE!

UPDATE:  Carol Diamonds highly recommends you visit the Just Say No Deal front page.

¡Que viva los PUMAs!


96 Responses

  1. That wasn’t funny

  2. What wasn’t funny?

    You mean the video?

    I’m not the resident clown on the Confluence, ya know!

  3. It was apt. Nothing I would enjoy more than sticking a knife into the DNC.

  4. I love “Murder on the Orient Express!” Director Sidney Lumet wrote in his autobiography that when the cast first got together for rehearsals above some Ukrainian restaurant in Manhattan (smelling of cabbage), all the movie stars sat on one side of the long table, all the theater stars sat on the other side and nobody talked. Lumet at first thought they were all being snotty. Then he realized they were intimidated by the other!

    Anyway, I just returned from voting. A short, maybe 10 minute, wait. I voted for McPalin at the top, all Dems who supported Hillary during the primary, the random women I’d never heard of (most of them Democrats), and left the rest blank. I felt no regret.

  5. Someone please post this photo – it says it all!

    No regrets, only happiness!



  6. Love Poirot!

    Sometimes I use the little gray cells too.

  7. How in two years did he go from that map to the supposed victor?

  8. McCain is hot!

  9. Hey everyone – I will be voting tonight for McPalin.

    Keep the faith. No matter what happens, we will survive. I still believe the Democrats cannot win without us.


  10. Kim, almost a billion dollars.

  11. Kim: it was the HAKA.

    Just watch – SUSA is very reliable and I see this map coming to life, or at least, CLOSE to it.

  12. Comment by Sara | 2008-11-04 10:47:42

    Ric Grenell: Why Obama will lose today
    Tuesday, November 4, 2008 9:50 AM
    By: Richard Grenell Article Font Size

    The mainstream media did everything they could to knock off Hillary Clinton in the primary season and John McCain in the during the general election campaign to help elect Barack Obama the 44th president. Fortunately, their attempt to persuade the American people that the inexperienced and untested junior senator from Illinois is qualified to be president has backfired.

    While the media try to weave a story of a unified Democratic Party and a Republican Party in turmoil, the facts point to a different outcome.

    Although I may be one of the few pundits in America who think McCain will win today, I hold firm to the lessons learned in the Democratic primary and politics 101.

    To win the presidency, a candidate must unify his base, split the Independent votes, and steal one more vote from the other side. Although the media’s polls have concluded almost unanimously that Obama will sweep to victory, fundamental problems remain for the Obama campaign with the base of Democratic voters. Since Obama’s problems from the primaries have not been resolved, nor reported in the national media, the Electoral College map signals trouble for the media’s main man.

    Throughout the primaries, Obama never garnered significant support from four of the major groups within the Democratic base. Union members, women, older voters, and Jewish voters all were Hillary Clinton supporters in significant numbers. Although the national media did focus on the disgruntled female supporters of Clinton in the lead-up to the Democratic National Convention in Denver, they dropped the issue after Obama won the nomination.

    However, the media’s short attention span has not solved the problem for the man whose pastor of 20 years still gives many Americans pause. Additionally, very little has been written or aired about the lack of support for Obama with older voters, Jewish voters, and union members. The assumption that the 25 million people who voted for Clinton and the rest of the Democratic candidates now have Obama yard signs will prove to be a fatal mistake for the media and Howard Dean.

    Now, I admit that the majority of the members of these groups ultimately will end up voting for the Democratic nominee, but the slightest amount of slippage in the percentage of these voters means Obama will not have the support the media and the polls assume he has.

    And this is no small problem. Since Obama has not united the Democratic Party the way Sarah Palin helped McCain unite the Republican Party, the 44th president of the United States will be John S. McCain.

    If this doesn’t make sense to you, then your emotions have carried you away from reality. McCain doesn’t need the majority of supporters from these traditional Democratic groups to win. McCain needs to get only a small amount because these voters are not Independents or swing voters, these people are traditional and frequent Democratic voters.

    None of the main media outlets has looked in to whether these groups, who did not support Obama in the primary, have come back to the Democratic base. But they have not. How else does one explain the fact that Pennsylvania gave Clinton a huge win in the primary and is still giving Obama trouble today?

    Pennsylvania traditionally is a Democratic state, but Obama has failed to close the deal in this anti-Republican year. A closer look at Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, and even Michigan suggests that union members and older Americans are not comfortable with Barack Obama.

    The media, however, have overplayed their hand in all but calling the race for Obama. While CNN reports, as it did last week, that Obama is up in Missouri and NPR and The New York Times are trying to convince us that North Carolina and Virginia are really tossup states, the American electorate quietly waited for the polls to open.

    Richard Grenell was the U.S. spokesman at the United Nations until he resigned on Sept. 29. He had been one of the longest-serving press spokesmen at the United Nations.
    © 2008 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

  13. Kim: Mind boggling isn’t it? And able to wrench the nomination from the most qualified candidate on the scene as well. Just goes to show that the majority of the public could not really give a sh*t who leads. As long as it is someone who we could have a beer with or someone who appears as a rock star. The rest, superfluous. Dreadful!

  14. Mawm: I agree, McCain was a hunk back in the day.

  15. MadamaB: Please don’t go too late! At what time are you going up to Yonkers?

  16. That red SUSA map at the top of your post was like giving someone a fake lottery scratcher.

  17. sm77 i so hope you are…… i had my daughter convinced to vote for mccain……. at college and is now voting for nobama.

  18. sm77 – please post that photo of McCain and those words!

    Also, Sarah is coming up to vote in Wasilla in just a minute on Fox. She has been up over 24 hours and heading to Arizona after she votes!


  19. I don’t really feel like being eloquent or snarky. All I feel like saying is that BO is a self serving little pisher and he does not deserve my vote.

  20. “My mother was born before women could vote. But in this election my daughter got to vote for her mother for President. This is the story of America. Of women and men who defy the odds and never give up. How do we give this country back to them? By following the example of a brave New Yorker , a woman who risked her life to shepherd slaves along the Underground Railroad. And on that path to freedom, Harriett Tubman had one piece of advice. If you hear the dogs, keep going. If you see the torches in the woods, keep going. If they’re shouting after you, keep going. Don’t ever stop. Keep going. If you want a taste of freedom, keep going. Even in the darkest of moments, ordinary Americans have found the faith to keep going.” — Hillary Clinton, 8/26/08. Denver CO

  21. Sara:

    God I hope Ric is right. I keep telling myself the same thing, but I’m afraid to believe I’m right. We just have to trust our instincts, and keep our fingers crossed.

  22. Just voted for McCain/Palin and it felt bloody fantastic! No other Dems to vote for since were unopposed, but voted yes on both referendums to give a paid sick day per 30 hours worked, and to increase sales taxes to help pay for our bus transit and parks.

    But there was no exit polling to share my good news with at my polling station in Milwaukee, WI. I think they are really scared about my neighborhood which is predominantly Liberal but filled with working class blue collar workers.

    Thanks PUMAs you all have given me so much courage to vote my conscience this election!

  23. sm77 – I have to wait until Nick gets out of work, so, we are leaving at 6 pm. We should get there around 6:45 because of rush-hour traffic. I hope the lines aren’t too long…

  24. I’m off to vote now. I hear the lines are long but the Obama people are serving coffee to people in lines in Fairfax County (Virginia). I guess we are special.
    Good luck everybody.

  25. Felt defiant and wonderful to vote for McCain/Palin.

    I was scolded for my McCain Buttons and had to remove them but they missed the one on my purse and they couldn’t do a thing about my orange ribbons.

    One Obama kid was holding a sign-nobody was there for McCain.
    I might dig up lawn signs and go back.

    Pat & Taggles
    I voted for Beatty too.

  26. I voted early this morning & was home by 8am. I proudly voted for the 30% solution including McPalin on top. Never voted Republican before, but it had to be done.

    I’ll be glad to get through the next 4 years and hopefully get someone I can truly be excited about next time (daja vu all over again).

  27. Sara – That post is excellent. The media keeps pretending the Democratic Party is unified, but it is not, and any poilling that is done supports that fact – the Hillary dissenters are between 25-35% of her primary voters.

    I have maintained for quite some time that this dynamic will not change in the GE, and the PUMAs are the proof. Moreover, Sarah Palin has energized McCain’s campaign and captured most of his reluctant base.

    I don’t see how Obama can win, unless Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck (ACORN voters) do it for him.

  28. Madamab: Luckily NY state stays open until 8pm – I hope you can go to Harriet’s place after that!

  29. sm77 – Actually, they’re open till 9 pm! And yes, I will be there to hug my fellow PUMAs, and all of you Conflucians by extension!

  30. Carol: I updated the post with a link.

  31. Madamab: 9pm! Even better!

  32. That Acorn thing just might backfire on them. Unless Mickey and Donald have photo id’s and a voter registration card they aren’t going to get to vote. And if they DO have photo id’s? Who in their right mind is going to let a mouse and duck vote in the presidential election? I’d personally like to see that on MSNBO.

  33. I am a PUMA, voted straight republican today and I feel great!

  34. I’m with you madamab. I don’t see how Obama wins when I know of so many Democrats who are voting McCain. I think we are being missed in the polls when they weight the raw results.

  35. deja vu, duh….

  36. Go

  37. Sara, do you have a link for the Grenell article?

  38. EVERY state is a swing state.

    “Cowardice asks the question, ‘Is it safe?’ Expediency asks the question, ‘Is it politic?’ Vanity asks the question, ‘Is it popular?’ But, conscience asks the question, ‘Is it right?’ And there comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but one must take it because one’s conscience tells one that it is right.”

  39. griffith – I agree. I’m not sure how people with fraudulent registrations are going to vote. There is always some minimal checking at the polls.

    And that is a hilarious image! Thanks for the much-needed laugh…


  40. I wish!!! I voted McCain/Palin today–my first time voting Republican. No matter what happens, I’m soooo proud to be a PUMA!!!

  41. griffithinc lmao at the thought of Donald Duck at the voting booth

  42. Wow! McCain was pretty cute. I just got back from voting. I went nuclear–voted for Palin/McCain, voted against Kerry and Markey. There was only one woman on my ballot, running unopposed for commissioner of probate. My polling place was empty, not even one person waiting. There was only one person voting besides me. I heard on the radio about lines in a couple of places, but it sounded like a trumped up report. Apparently there were people waiting outside one polling place in Jamaica Plain. I don’t think most Mass. voters are that enthused about BO even if they end up voting for him.

  43. That is a pretty funny thought huh? The whole Disney cartoon bunch showing up at the polling booths, w/registration and photo id in hand. HA! 🙂

  44. It is encouraging to hear so many Dems and Indies voting for McCain/Palin. My hope that this trend is sweeping the nation today along with us. If so, then we may be seeing an upset that was unpredicted.

    Country first and to hell with the sheeple!

  45. I proudly voted for McCain/Paling this morning.

    Then I drove to work and reported my polling place for violating Illinois election law by asking me for my ID and then challenging my signature when I said no.

    The poll worker was not amused when I asked to see her nametag clearly and wrote it down.

  46. I have to go to a meeting tonight at 7pm and I probably won’t be home until the polls close on the west coast. I’m kind of glad because my husband is into watching MSNBC and I won’t have to – until later when there might be some indicators of what is really happening.

    I think I might enjoy MSNBC if McCain gets some of the ‘must win’ states on the east coast.

  47. I was surprised how much emotion I felt when I voted. My hands were shaking a little. Driving home, I felt a surge of real rage. I still feel that anger. I deeply resent being put in this position by Dean, Pelosi, Reid, Kerry, Daschle, Brazille, et al.

  48. Gov. Palin is being interviewed outside the polling place in Wasilla, talking about “…glass ceilings being shattered…”

  49. Wow, Johnny Mac sure could wear a flight suit. See, he’s no “Dubya.”

  50. phlamingophred: what is that all about? I saw you mention something about it yesterday. Why did you expect they would ask for your ID?

  51. bb: Same here in Western MA. I was in and out in record time. Steady stream but no lines. It was early, but I did see a lot of people I have never seen before and I have voted in this precinct for over 30 years. No signs outside but plenty of poll watchers.

    Hopefully the low turnout means that Obama is not as popular as once thought here in MA. I am sure the state will remain blue but he may have lost support somewhere along the way.
    Not sure why since he is such a “great guy”. Not!!!

  52. Just voted for McPalin. I felt very solemn while I did it. I want to cry today. I don’t know what it is. Mom called and says they are all ready trying to call it for Obama to depress turnout.
    I am going to trust my instincts on this one. The media is trying to salvage it’s credibility.
    McCain/Palin ’08
    Clinton ’12

  53. When I first got to my polling place, I saw a lot of people standing around, and I was afraid I’d have to wait in line. The school was having a bake sale outside the voting room and that’s where the lines were. LOL.

  54. Pat & BB: that was the first thing I thought of. If you are in a blue state and turnout is VERY low, wouldn’t that be interesting.

    The good thing is that if McCain wins AND blue states have low turnout, maybe we won’t have the mismatch between popular vote and EC.

  55. Pat,

    I think MA is still mostly Hillary country. If the average Dem voter knew what had really happened, they might be voting McCain too. I’ll be interested to see how much Obama underperforms the polls. He supposedly is ahead here by about 20 points.

  56. I wonder if Obama got up this morning and started practicing the words “Mr. President” in the mirror while he shaved. May explain why Michelle looked like she pulled an all nighter since she did not have enough time to glamor it up a bit before hitting the polls.

    Can’t express how happy I will be to see the last of these two.

  57. Did you all wear orange when you went and voted? …gotta vote, but I’m so anxious, nauseated, and I have no idea what I’m going to do about down ticket races. Thanks so much for this site!

  58. Can someone give me a link to Sarah’s interview from Wasilla???

  59. bostonboomer,
    the prom committee was (shrewdly) holding a bake sale at the gym where we voted!

  60. jimtacoma,
    I live in a deep red district and the voters are out here en masse. I’m thinking that all the ‘bots voted early while all the Republicans are showing up today.

  61. JJ,

    I would laugh my ass off if McCain won the electoral votes and Obama won the pop. vote. I would be laughing for days!!

  62. littleisis — it just now wrapped up on Fox. Maybe they’ll post it on their website.

  63. bostonboomer, do you have early voting in mass? I figured my polling place was dead because I live in obot central and they had already all voted early.

  64. Carol – thanks for the reminder – it is indeed inspiring:

    Harriett Tubman had one piece of advice. If you hear the dogs, keep going. If you see the torches in the woods, keep going. If they’re shouting after you, keep going. Don’t ever stop. Keep going. If you want a taste of freedom, keep going. Even in the darkest of moments, ordinary Americans have found the faith to keep going.” — Hillary Clinton, 8/26/08. Denver CO

  65. jvsp,

    I just threw on jeans and a shirt. But my shirt does have some orange in it.

  66. Pat Johnson, on November 4th, 2008 at 11:28 am Said:

    I wonder if Obama got up this morning and started practicing the words “Mr. President” in the mirror while he shaved. May explain why Michelle looked like she pulled an all nighter since she did not have enough time to glamor it up a bit before hitting the polls.

    Can’t express how happy I will be to see the last of these two.

    PJ, you always cheer me up!!! Ah, I’m feeling good, all of a sudden!!! Gods, I never want to see those two again. Is BO really going to try to run again in four years??? Please, Gods, no. I never want to see his smug mug again after this.

  67. BB, I would love that too. It would be poetic justice.

    Tell em to go whine and cry to the DNC.

  68. poplicola, on November 4th, 2008 at 11:29 am Said:

    littleisis — it just now wrapped up on Fox. Maybe they’ll post it on their website.

    Yeah, maybe later, but I’m not going to check now.

  69. Clearly, I have to buy something orange –

  70. It is not required in Illinois to present your ID to vote and they should not ask for it. I thought they would ask because they did ask me in our primary. I made sure to know our law before today so I could challenge them this morning.

    The reason it’s not kosher is because it’s voter intimidation – some folks will not vote if asked to present ID because they are afraid the police will be called.

  71. jvsp
    I wore orange. And lots of Mac/Palin gear. And did I ever get the hairy eyeball!

    My MA polling station was hopping. The workers told me over 500 had already voted by 10:00- more than in the last election

  72. BB: Me too! I’ve been hoping that would happen for days now.

    My concern is that situation would be most likely to lead to drawn out re-counts and I’d like it to be OVER with a McCain victory.

    But either way, I suppose we can run around saying, “McCain won, get over it” or better yet “PALIN WON, get over it!”

  73. Gary,

    No, Mass. doesn’t have early voting. We are very slow to change here. We had blue laws until pretty recently and the liquor stores were closed on election day. I think it will be a small turnout here. I haven’t gotten much sense of enthusiasm. I have see some Obama signs in my neighborhood. There were none on my street until two days ago when the people across the street put one up. I haven’t seen any McCain signs or bumper stickers, but I live in a yuppified suburb and work in academia. There are lots of places in Boston and outlying areas that won’t go for Obama.

  74. BB, I would laugh hysterically too. it would be the ultimate irony and I would cry with laughter. I wonder what Ann Coulter and her crazy **ss has to say about all of this? I suppose I’ll go check.

  75. Mawm,

    You are my role model. Until you announced you were voting the straight Repub. ticket, I never really considered it. It has taken me a long time to deprogram myself.

  76. catarina,

    Are you in Boston or suburbs? Or further out? You don’t have to say if you don’t want to. I’m in Arlington.

  77. I voted for every woman on the ticket, regardless of party, after that, I voted dems. I also voted in favor of the Washington version of a ‘death with dignity’ initiative.

  78. The only network TV coverage I caught was “live” reporting as Senator Clinton and Pres. Clinton were voting. I smiled and sighed at the same time of what SHOULD have been.

  79. ..gotta find something orange to wear and head out. I feel cheated. Thanks BB and catarina.

  80. Hi bb,
    I’m in Chelmsford. There are some small family farms so there’s a tiny Republican base but it’s mostly Dem country.
    Amazing how many McCain signs there are.
    My family is from Arlington but you’re right-it’s yuppified. Not the same place my dad went to high school!

  81. jvsp i had orange ribbon from halloween! tied it to my purse strap!

  82. There are only three actual cities in MA, Boston, Worcester, Springfield. The rest are suburban and hill country towns. Taking into account the many colleges here in MA, and there are many, the voters here are mainly liberal. But aside from the fact that we are primarily registered Dems and Indies, we do buck the trends by having voted for Repub governors over the years.

    I see Obama carrying the state because Bush is so unpopular here and McCain is running as a Repub. The issue would be similar to how we voted: a protest against the GOP as opposed to a vote in favor of Obama. That is how I see this play out in my state.

  83. If Obama does win today, politics will never be the same again. Public Financing will be effectively dead. Everyone, including foreign interests will know that the presidency can be bought and that the “press” can be bought also.

  84. edwardian….I’d bet my last dime that they both voted McCain…they’d never admit it though….

  85. madamab: How come you’re voting in Yonkers? I thought you were a NYCer…

  86. BB: that would be so funny and poetic justice if MA went red this year!

  87. No more Obama,

    “by a jury of peers, tried and true.”

  88. garychapelhill, on November 4th, 2008 at 11:48 am Said:
    edwardian….I’d bet my last dime that they both voted McCain…they’d never admit it though….

    Gary – LOL! I thought the same, especially watching Bill at the booth. But I wonder if they aren’t paranoid that *someone* *somewhere* might be tracking their personal ballots. It’s just that, at this point, I put NOTHING past this MSM-fueled, Chicago thug-entrenched DNC.

  89. I voted about an hour ago in my Loudoun County, Virginia suburb. There was absolutely no line. I think I was voter 344.

    I found that odd because there is supposed to be such a big turnout. My co-worker who votes in Alexandria had a 2.5 hour wait. I guess ACORN wasn’t interested in getting out the vote in my community. Which strikes me as a bit unfair. Shouldn’t voter drives be aimed at the ENTIRE citizenry and not just certain segments?

    Another thing that was strange is that none of our Dem buddies were manning the tables. Both my husband and I have volunteered at the polls in the past and I did not see one familiar face (out of the mere two) at the Dem table.

    So no free coffee or donuts for me. But I did get a nifty sticker and the option to vote paper or electronic ballot. Seemed most folks were opting for paper. I voted McCain/Palin, Mark Warner (D) and Judy Feder (D). It will be very interesting to see how Virginia goes, but I know of at least two formerly loyal Dems who didn’t vote for BO today.

  90. Sophie – We sold our car when we moved from Yonkers in March, and didn’t change the address on our licenses. That’s how we normally register to vote. D’oh!!!

  91. Love you, SM!!

  92. SM: SUSA has BO taking both FL and PA in their latest results.
    We can only hope that they’re less reliable today than usual.

  93. I’m in moderation.

    Cleanup on aisle 12:25

  94. catarina,

    I know Chelmsford. I went to U. Mass Lowell for undergrad.

  95. […] * While we wait for a Voting Strategy post, SUSA reported what would happen in this election […]

  96. Well, the deed is done… I cast my vote, I sighed a sigh of relief, knowing I followed my convictions.. and finally it’s over!!
    Tomorrow we begin to rebuild….we are PUMAS!! and we will carry on!!
    Thank you all, for being here for me, when I needed you and thank you for giving me a place to rant and carry on when I needed that too.

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