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Tuesday: Number Sense

There is an article in the NYTimes this morning about the human ability to approximate numbers of items and how this is correlated to the ability to do more abstract math.  There’s a little test you can take that will show you how good you are at this.  (I scored a 88%.  Nyah-Nyah!)

Can we apply these same skills to electoral vote maps?

Here’s the link to the latest 270 to Win map.  These are current numbers.  Do you see more blue or red?

How about the latest Hominid Views simulation map?

Well, more red than last week anyway.

Whoo-WEE! Check out how pale NY is these days.

What about Real Clear Politics electoral vote map?

I don’t know about you guys, but I’m seeing more red.  My sense is that Obama is going to lose.  Not only that but the lightening up of PA, NJ and NY is not a good sign.

But what do I know?  I’m just a girl and everyone knows that girls are not good at math.

BTW:  Today is primary day in Massachusetts! If you live in MA, go out and vote for Ed O’Reilly for the US Senate and send a message to John Kerry and the DNC.

224 Responses

  1. I read that the latest poll shows PA a tie. I seem to remember that Kerry was leading in PA through out the 2004 campaign.

  2. Good morning, Riverdaughter. I hope you are feeling better today. I honestly don’t see how he can win, but I don’t have one of those p*nis thingies either, so what do I know?

  3. Go Ed! OT, but I am bringing this up from the last thread, because I thought it important:

    Holy shit. I think McCain just declared war on Wall Street, and this is going to get UUUUUGLY.

    He just said on GMA that the current problems in the banking and financial markets are directly linked to corruption in Washington. He wants to appoint a 9/11 style commission on what exactly has happened. and why.

    The money boys and the congresscritters in bed with them, Dem or Repub, are NOT going to like that.

  4. New York is going to be in toss-up territory in two weeks.

    Obama is going to have to spend a lot of money here in the Empire State.

    RD – How are you feeling today?

  5. Democrats are losing NEW YORK.


    Game over. Can we have Hillary back?

  6. wmcb – I worked at an investment management company until last month. It was scary to see how people in that community loathed McCain and worshipped Obama.

    I’m unemployed right now, but I’m not sorry to be out of that environment.

    Wall Street wants Obama.

  7. Arabella, I would love to see McCain and our Hill come out jointly and back doing a full 9/11 style investigation of what happened to push this free-for-all in the financial markets, and who was behind it.

    That would blow some minds.

  8. The numbers are grim indeed. The RCP averages show:

    McCain leading in

  9. Yup, NY will be interesting, as I said in the previous thread, I may be volunteering for the GOP at the Tomatofest.

  10. The numbers are grim indeed. The RCP averages show:

    McCain leading in Colorado, Florida, and Ohio.

    McCain and Obama tied in PA and Virginia (but McCain takes VA, I guarantee it).

    Race tightening in New Jersey and New York, and tied in Minnesota, all of which should be easy wins for Dems this year.

    A poster at NQ noted that Obama has indeed proved to be a map-changer, just not in the way that maybe Democrats wanted.

  11. We’ll start hearing more cries of r@s!m now.

    And threats. The trolls are stepping up incendiary comments, in part to provoke a r@ response, in part to distract. All they can do now is try to de-energize us.

    Thank goodness this place is a safe haven

  12. If McCain starts a blame game, you can be sure that prominent Dems will be at the top of his list, including Hillary.

  13. plural, I think there is enough blame to go around in BOTH parties. And they need to be called on it, no matter what their party. Will McCain be harder on the Dem Congress? Sure. He’s trying to win an election, after all. But he has shown no reticence in the past to call out the shenanigans of his own, and neither has Palin.

  14. It’s ridiculous and irresponsible to try to associate the market problems with 9/11.

    For heavens’ sake, look at a market chart. These things happen periodically, and the worst thing you can do is get into inflammatory accusations.

  15. Hillary was GREAT on GMA!
    I miss her!

  16. But what do I know? I’m just a girl and everyone knows that girls are not good at math.
    From Scientific American Mag:

    “Girls Equal Boys at Math
    An analysis of performance on math tests finds that girls match boys. And no gender difference can be found among top performers either. ”


  17. Okay so now I get it. The upper crust see Obama as a paid for bowl of mush, handing over everything to them , while McCain cares about fixing problems, even if it’s not as I would fix them, and plans to actually govern .While it was plain before, but now here’s a very stark example of why the press and Wall St wanting Barry .

  18. I think it was meant as a 9/11 style investigation in that it would be broad and bi-partisan not that they are trying to connect it to the attack of 9/11.

  19. I don’t have one of those p*nis thingies either, so what do I know?

    LOLOL. I almost lost my keyboard with that one, luckily I managed to swallow my coffee instead.

    Watching MSObama this morning, they show McCain talking about greed causing the crisis and he’s gonna clean it up, but it he thinks American workers are still strong, or something like that. Then they show Obama attacking McCain about saying the economy is fundamentally sound: “what economy?”

    So we get an image of McCain being all leaderly in crisis, and Obama pointing fingers and being petty — on MSObama, no less. I think Obama lost this round of the game to JM.

    (Btw, my 7yo daughter tells me very seriously that she wants me to pick Palin because she’s a girl. Sure thing honey!!!!)

  20. Voted for Ed O’Reilly first ting this morning. I hope to God that the DNC gets the message. After 24 years in the Senate, Kerry had to actually run for his candidacy. Maybe he’ll go the way of Lieberman and run as an Independent Democrat if O’Reilly wins the primary. Then he will show his real stripes. I wonder if he’ll get it that his turncoat behavior did not sit well with voters.

  21. I will not vote for a candidate who engages in blame games on the economy.

    We need solutions, not finger pointing.

  22. The problem for Wall St and the upper crust is anyone looking at anything. They want to dump the whole bank mess unto the tax payer. How can they if folks are watching? Wall St is between the Bush war boom theft of the treasury stepping stone and the social security theft they were promised. to shore up the fruad that is the $$ system . Hell, the house bubble has even burst. Modern Wall St cannot function with out some bubble scam going uncheacked and it’s being forced to try. It’s not pretty .
    Hill warned them

  23. Cannonfire links to a TPM post whining about Obama’s loss among “aging white women.” As Joseph notes, TPM just cannot bring itself to say the dread word PUMA…so it’s all the fault of those darn bitter, knitting, “aging white women!”

  24. plural, he did not say it had anything to do with 9/11! Huh??? Where the heck did you get that?

    He said a “9/11 style commission.

  25. I heard the Obama spokesman (The guy who told the Canadians not to believe anything that Obama said to us voters) and the McCain spokesman on NPR yesterday morning. The O guy was so smug and condescending and the McCain guy tried to lay out McCain’s positons. The O guy just kept trying to come up with sound bite answers and never really said what O would do. Pls. lets do everything possible to make sure O goes back to the senate.

  26. On GMA Hillary reminds everyone that SHE was the one trying to be pro-active about this financial crisis.

    Good for her. I remember her saying, “I feel like Paulette Revere — The recession is coming, The recession is coming.”

    She offered real solutions.

    And cheers for GMA for putting her on.

  27. “aging white women.”

    That is not true, McCaskill supports him.

  28. Heh, I got 80 % on the test. Can I beez prezident now?

    I check out the map at http://www.electoral-vote.com first thing every day. Just kills me to see it as we know Hillary would’ve been the one to bring in red states like Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia. They remember the Clinton years there. Not to mention she would’ve brought in the crucial swing states (PA, FL, OH).

    Why am I even wasting my breath … you guys all know this. But, for crying out LOUD, when New York is within 5 points … we have to ask … is this R@cism contagious. Sure seems like the whole country is coming down with a bad case of it. Yeah, that must be it.

  29. Saying 9/11 evokes 9/11.

  30. Oh my, look how pale a blue Wisconsin is. Seems it isn’t one of those solidly blue eggs in Obama’s basket after all. Some of us folks that actually live here have been saying this for some time now. But what the hell do we know. Being all low-information voters and all.

    NØbama NØway

  31. Yes, britgirls. H may even have delivered NY….sigh.

  32. I think rasmussen has McCain only down by 3 in NJ too, as well as tied in PA.

    Arabella, the racism cries have already begun.

    On a swing through Pennsylvania last month, John McCain visited a Manheim Central High School football practice — not to ingratiate himself with the players, who weren’t even old enough to vote, but to identify himself with the gritty, down-home, lunch-bucket values of small-town football. “This is a blue-collar town,” Manheim’s coach said in his introduction of McCain. “We don’t have a lot of flashy athletes. We don’t come out with a lot of flash.” But the coach explained that his team works hard, plays with discipline and comes through in the end. “A lot like John McCain,” he said.

    If you’re familiar with the code words of the sports world, you’ve probably already guessed that Manheim’s players had something else in common with McCain: they were white. On the other hand, athletes who are described as “flashy” almost invariably have something in common with Barack Obama. I’m not saying the coach was trying to inject race into his discussion of flashiness. I’m saying that sometimes we talk about race even when we’re not talking about race — in presidential politics as well as sports.

    when did flashy=racist???

  33. plural I disagree, I understood it the same way mawm did.

  34. Saying 9/11 evokes 9/11.

    Oh, plural, please. That is just insanely wrong, and even more knee-jerk reactionary than the thing you are accusing McCain of.

  35. Obama could still pull this thing out of the bag.

    Constant vigilance!

  36. gary, you are sooooo flashy….oh and Macho (I think that is its name?) is neat.

  37. Only a few days after the observances, seeing how raw people’s feeling still are, and you think it doesn’t get people riled up to mention it? Sorry, I differ, strongly.

    I don’t think we need any kind of commission, but if someone wants to suggest it, there are lots of previous parallels they can use.

  38. When shit hits the fan, the GOP always say its wants ” a blue ribbon panel ” to study a problem ….saying 9/11 commission is an updating of that….but we find ourselves in a place where even that tactic is more responsible than the Dem response….god help us

  39. whoops, I meant flashy=black, according to that author….

  40. Honora – a correction if I may –

    Pls. lets do everything possible to make sure O goes back to the senate for the remainder of his term…… and then home.

  41. Well, I wouldn’t have minded if McCain had used the words “Truman-style.” But I’m not sure how happy his base would have been had he done so.


  42. no, I think flashy in this context may refer to the star-like status of O…not to ethnicity. Working horse, vs show horse….

  43. I have horses…. show horses are a pain in the butt.

    my 2 cents!

  44. are you being snarky upstate? 🙂 The author of that article is pretty much accusing that basketball coach of being racist because he says his team isn’t “flashy” I think that is absurd.

  45. I agree with indigo….the responsible thing is to make sure O completes his term as a senator…..From now on, I will be supporting O in a “downticket” kind of way.

  46. Sorry, paper doll, but I think taking a position that ANY mention of 9/11 in ANY context automatically equals nasty fearmongering is illogical, blindly partisan, and nuts.

  47. actually the 9/11 commission was a very skimpy one!
    Compared with the Challenger commission , it’s shocking ….you know back when they for real looked at stuff to actual find out what really happened…..,and not just “studied” it while it went back to page 12.

  48. gary, I think we both understand the article the same way. The author equals the flashy reference to a racist remark, the coach, I don’t believe, means it that way.

  49. How dense can I be????? Need more coffee. Here we go again…please moderator….delete the unnecessary copies…. copy and paste for the third time. This time editing the r word.

    gary, I think we both understand the article the same way. The author equals the flashy reference to a r*cist remark, the coach, I don’t believe, means it that way.

  50. Indigo and Upstate I agree totally. Obama needs to spend more time with his family. I almost added that earlier but sometimes I get a little wordy and I was trying to be brief. Yeah, right. 😳

  51. Oh, the 9/11 commission did not do the best job, by any means.

    But the point he was making was that there are reasons, some of them political, why this meltdown was allowed to happen, and it ought to be investigated. He used the “investigative commission” analogy that is currently most familiar to most Americans.

    He was not fearmongering.

  52. puma power chicks and dudes
    Who got to see the ‘first dude’ on Greta?
    what was your first impression ?
    if i may say so, i found him simply adorable.
    plus for all of us dems who are concerned about workers rights, he is a proud union member.
    You know I’m at the point of saying, Obama is claiming we have to vote for him if we want green energy, diplomacy, infrastructure, fiscal responsibility, lower healthcare costs and better access etc.
    I say to Obama that these are OUR issues and I’m taking them with me to McCain. The Obamacrats on Huffington are saying the world is watching us go down and they are laughing at us. I say to the world we are not going down, we are going forward.
    They think we are ignorant, I think not.

  53. Jay-sas! Just adding up the electoral votes for the states I mentioned above … our gal Hillary would’ve been at 345 electoral votes.


  54. I scored a 92 on the test!!! but now I’m seeing spots 😦

  55. wmcb, on September 16th, 2008 at 9:11 am

    if you read what I said, you’ll see I agree. The McCain is just updating the GOP blue ribbon panel tactic… People know the of the 9/11 commission and most likely not know of the others.

  56. orangeblossom, on September 16th, 2008 at 9:16 am Said:
    ….The Obamacrats on Huffington are saying the world is watching us go down and they are laughing at us…

    If Barry gets in , then we will see world wide lauighing

  57. plural: Could you be any more obtuse? Saying 9/11 style commission does not attempt to tie the faltering economy to the attacks of 9/11. Rather it ties any new commission to a bi-partisan attempt to get at the truth.

    Of course, a lot of people don’t want to hear the truth.

  58. ….The Obamacrats on Huffington are saying the world is watching us go down and they are laughing at us…

    that’s why we don’t let them vote 🙂

  59. give plural a break. Obviously it evoked a response in one person (plural)…that means it must have that same affect on many people. I don’t think that’s what McCain was trying to do, but it certainly doesn’t invalidate Plural’s feelings.

  60. I took the test 6 times and got a 100 each time. And I’m not good at math.

  61. Gary – I thought the world was already laughing at us after 8 years of Bush! Silly me.


  62. I took the test 6 times and got a 100 each time.

    and you can still see????? that test is going to give me a migraine.

  63. McCain told Mika on Joe this morning that she was in the tank for obama, she was offended LOL

  64. haven’t they always been laughing at us?

  65. truth hurts

  66. PamMc, on September 16th, 2008 at 9:38 am

    love it….Mika redefines the term ” tank” she’s so in the Obarry tank…. right next to her dad !

  67. garychapelhill, on September 16th, 2008 at 9:39 am Said:
    haven’t they always been laughing at us?

    …yes, when they aren’t raging or crying!

  68. Wow, MA is pale blue. When did that happen?!!!!!

  69. I hope Kerry loses. I watched the debate with his opponent and went WOW…signs of life!! And the “twang” reminded me of a younger Kennedy…and he had verve, too!

    Today’s post…on the heels of the Mooseburger Mom….

    Sarah, Joe and Liza the Chicken

    A bit of politics and a good story to go along with it…

  70. The Europeans are not laughing, yet.

  71. Took the test. I must say I’m a little suspicious of this kind of assessment – it doesn’t seem to correlate to the story about doing a running tally of the cost of the groceries in the cart. I think I got lucky, I took 10 tests and got an 87%. I think I just got lucky….but that’s because I’m a girl.

  72. Did anyone really go the whole 25 times on that test? I stopped at two.

  73. I just voted for O’Reilly! Come on, fellow Bay Staters…get out and vote!!

  74. I went the whole 25 times. I ended up with 95%, but I think I could do it again and get 50%. I’m not sure what the point of it is. It’s just another way to make us feel bad or maybe good about ourselves.

  75. Elixir, on September 16th, 2008 at 9:42 am Said:
    Wow, MA is pale blue. When did that happen?!!!!!

    They have the Axelrod / Barry prototype as governor!

  76. ben, i do this all the time when looking at microscope images. i could this test forever. its a cool game
    i would argue though tat the yellow its easy to see than the blue

  77. doing it with a sick baby on your lap is tougher though

  78. On my way to vote for Ed and a couple of “girls”.

  79. i see there is several people from upstate ny
    anybody from gillibrand district. any guesses about her chances

  80. I seriously doubt Ed will win, but I’d love to see him get enough votes to scare the crap out of the DNC.

    GO, ED!

  81. Just saw HRC on GMA: I loooooooooooove her…

    To hear her, in her iconic way, talking in specifics about what is going on with the economy right now…nobody does it better.

    D. Sawyer asked her about the political situation, and McCaskill’s comments about McCain’s age and health. She refused to go there, bringing it back to “a choice between what the Democrats offer and what the Republicans offer.” She even went further: “Frankly, I don’t think we should be focused on the VP candidate on the other side. This goes way beyond one candidate.”

    She also deftly avoided the question about PUMA’s. Sawyer asked about the 17% of her supporters who will vote McCain, “what does BO have to do?” HRC: “He’s doing it. He’s talking to them about the economy, and what people are concerned about.”

    She’s a pro. And I miss her dearly.

  82. I agree with Gary. We are friends here, and plural is a long-time participant. Can we please try to disagree without being disagreeable? Personal judgements and using loaded words like “obstuse” aren’t necessary to express disagreement.

  83. Katiebird,

    I did more than 25. There is a definite practice effect with that test.

  84. jonas8: I’m from Gillibrand’s district and I’m worried about her. Treadwell has buckets of money, and he is making a strong challenge. I met her in the spring at an HRC event. She is smart, passionate, and genuine. She’s worked hard for this area, and has a good future in the Dem Party, but this guy has swooped in with lots of money for advertising, and I’m not sure how it’s going to go. He’s got one of those p*nis thingies too.

  85. I started the test thinking there was an optical illusion so I picked against my impression a few times before I was convinced there was no illusion.

    It was interesting to see how quickly we can discern the quantity differences.

  86. Did Claire really talk about McCain’s age and health?

  87. McCain told Mika on Joe this morning that she was in the tank for obama, she was offended LOL

    O man, so sorry I missed that!!

  88. Ben: Yes, on This Week with GS, she said that he has had cancer 4x and is 72 years old, and again used the beat-a-dead-horse talking point: Palin is only a “heartbeat” away from the presidency.

    Carly Fiorina was on with McCaskill and she ate her for brunch. Seriously, Claire was completely outmatched and Carly slam dunked her, saying that it was total “ageism” and unacceptable.

  89. There are some other design problems with that “number sense” test too. If someone doesn’t have great eyesight, they won’t do as well. Also, as you get older (and I mean after age 30), your reaction times slows down. Neither one of those factors prevents you from having good number sense but will hurt you on the test. As I said, there is also a practice effect. You get better at it the more you do it. It was interesting that you can get a “sense” of which color is more prominent, but what if the colors weren’t as bright? There are all kinds of problems with a test like that.

  90. http://www.nypost.com/seven/09152008/news/regionalnews/pelosi_asks_rangel_to_step_down_from_com_129228.htm

    Pelosi wants Rangel out so the debt ceiling can be raised and all of Wall St’s mess is bailed out by the tax payer . Rangel won’t play ball and allow the national debt to be tripled . The push to remove him is not because of Rangel’s tax return ….Now he knows how Hill felt when the party turns on you.

    Pelosi is not waiting for Barry to steal the office to start The Obamafaction of the former US goverment .

  91. fif,

    Call me crazy, but I wouldn’t be all that worried about Palin being able to handle the job–particularly since all of McCain’s people would still be in place. She strikes me as very competent, much more so than Obama who is going to *actually* be President if he wins the election. She would also have to appoint a VP, who could be very experienced.

  92. Has anybody read the book ‘The case against Barack Obama” it is on the NYT bestseller list at number 5.

    Anything new in the book?

  93. It kills me how scared they are of Palin in office….but Bush being in office 2 times did not scae them enough to fight the GOP! The Dems really are simply a sub set of the power elite

  94. paper doll—or god forbid Dick Cheney…

  95. I think they are scared of Palin because she is an outsider and won’t respect their status and won’t throw good parties.
    (wasn’t that what they said about Clinton back in ’92?)

    I only hope Palin can pick good advisers. (Although I already know Obama has terrible advisers.)

  96. paper doll, on September 16th, 2008 at 10:30 am

    One member of the New York congressional delegation who supported Pelosi’s decision said, “You have to have one standard – you can’t have one for [Republicans] and one for us.”

    I love the fact that it is someone from the New York Congressional delegation who said that. It is this group of people that told Hillary they would not support her at the convention. How does it feel Rangel:smile:

  97. paper doll: good point! And I wonder how many of the people supporting Obama now voted for Nader in 2000.

  98. Someone here the other day offered a brilliant response to the ‘what will Palin do, she’s only a heartbeat away from the old geezer dying’ sound bite – a President Palin would select a more experienced VP, just like an inexperienced Obama did.

    I think that is great.

  99. bb: i completely agree. It’s a red herring they are using to scare people into voting Obama, but they neglect to mention that he’s even MORE inexperienced as the presidential candidate. She has worked with a huge budget and done it well. She has negotiated with foreign officials over energy rights, and has had to deal with the state legislature and bureaucracy. It will be a learning curve, but she is not at the top of the ticket. The president does not run the country alone. There is an entire sophisticated team in place. If BO is supposed to be prepared, then so is she. Of course, HRC trumps them all.

  100. Hey, I just found out that my hubby is actually considering voting for Obama, that’s how much the Republican platform offends him. He understands completely how I feel and why I can no longer vote for the Dems, but his job is tied to Wall Street and he is afraid that McCain will be a continuation of the Bush policies and that we will sink completely into a Depression. I asked him if he really thought Obama could do better and he immediately said “Hillary could do better!” Basically, he feels he’s faced with two bad choices and he doesn’t trust the Republicans enough to take control of the economy. We live in a very red state, though, so it may not really matter.

  101. Wow!

    Obama is brilliantly extending the electoral map. Only we forgot to ask the color;

    Quinnipiac poll: Obama has razor-thin lead in N.J.; McCain trails by just 3 points

  102. Downticket, on September 16th, 2008 at 10:41 am Said:

    Exactly….when will they learn caving in , like Charlie did with HRC, does not earn you anything more than the call to cave in even more later ? Though I will say he stood by her longer than most. However he fails to realize 90% compliance isn’t enough in Barry land, you must be a total tool. These old time pols didn’t get the memo …we are post govering now .

  103. 88% in 25 tries. heh. I still dont know how to do long division. or fractions.

    Going to vote for Ed O’Reilly right now!

    Thanks for the excellent post and fun game RD.

  104. Seeing HRC on GMA, it’s so sad to think that she had overwhelming support on a candidates’ ability to handle the economy, even from those who did not support her. I think it was: 32% HRC, 26% McCain, and 24% Obama. Now, right before the election, the economy is again faltering dramatically, and sits there reeling off details and solutions. I hope people watching realize what a huge mistake they made. She could have been our FDR. The timing was perfect for her talents and work ethic. sad sad sad.

  105. I hope Ed beats old John. And then I hope old John doesn’t take a playbook from his old pal Lieberman and run as an independent. Not that New Englanders would fall for it twice, but you never know. .

  106. fif, on September 16th, 2008 at 10:20 am

    … “Frankly, I don’t think we should be focused on the VP candidate on the other side. This goes way beyond one candidate.”


    She keeps showing them how it is done and they simply refuse to learn. ….all you have to know about the Dem elite is they threw this candidate away, to know NOT to vote for them . You don’t even have to know all that went on to know they aren’t to be trusted .

  107. And note that the height challenged lady that introduced him called Governor Palin a “bucket of fluff”.

    Wait a minute there kenoshaM: don’t start dissing us “height challenged people.” I’m Italian–we’re on the little side. Small but fierce–like a PUMA.

    Anyway, I’d like to see that woman debate Palin. I think all of this talk about how inexperienced and average Palin is is going to backfire. The former governor, who she beat, said that people make a big mistake underestimating Palin. She is strong and smart, it’s just hidden in a small town girl facade.

  108. The whole establishment here is for Kerry but I’m leave during lunch to vote for Ed O’Reilly. A large swath of the Dem “Leadership” is dead to me.

  109. Jim Cramer of “Mad Money” had Hillary on his program, and he said she was the candidate with the proper skills and grasp of the economy to handle the current economic situation the best. This was months ago. He had also been on FOX, discussing the markets and mortgages etc. and said the mess was attributable to “late-stage rapacious capitalism”. I think that’s the greed John McCain is referring to. All I know about economics and self-regulation I read in novels by Charles Dickens. It didn’t work then, and it isn’t working now. Not that I would trust myself with huge amounts of money…I can’t self-regulate in the face of a newly opened can of Pringles.

  110. kenoshaMarge: That was a truly revolting video. How can these people be so tone-deaf? Republicans aren’t used to battling smart? What – the Clintons, Gore, Kerry – were a bunch of dummies? This was more than class warfare from Biden, this was race-baiting.

    And that Dem woman just won a few more votes for Sarah Palin. I’m really ashamed that my party affiliation is still Dem, and that these people pretend this is still the progressive party for women.

  111. Yahoo news

    “German scientists discover 120 million year-old ant”

    Now, THAT is old…..

  112. I think all of this talk about how inexperienced and average Palin is is going to backfire. The former governor, who she beat, said that people make a big mistake underestimating Palin

    I work in a law firm with some very smart women. I overheard one of them, a partner in the firm, say this yesterday in response to someone else mentioning Palin. “I just can’t STAND her. who does she think she is? She’s not qualified to do anything!”. I thought, this sounds like something one might overhear in high school. Has anybody else noticed this visceral reaction to Palin, especially from obamabot women?

  113. The Biden gaffe is also so stupid, because it ignores the fact that both Clintons are brilliant and had no trouble connecting to small town voters. It’s OBAMA–that’s the problem! As if Hillary didn’t school him through ever debate. What he meant is, Obama is pretentious and condescending, and they can’t relate to that. And who would want to?

  114. Upstate: That ant is just a heartbeat away…..

  115. He couldn’t win w/his small coalition, w/o the swing states, then he alienated working class and women, then Palin came in. But really it’s Barry Obama.

  116. gary – just sit back and smile.

    If Hillary is not the Nominee, Palin will be the VP and will be excellent. I see a real person with a real no nonsense approach to her decision making.


  117. I know, parent, and they are found in sunny Brazil….ummmmh.

    I am so not voting for the ant candidate.

  118. Ms. Marple, on September 16th, 2008 at 11:00 am Said:
    …..He had also been on FOX, discussing the markets and mortgages etc. and said the mess was attributable to “late-stage rapacious capitalism”.

    Whoa! That’s alot of honesty coming from someone featured on CNN! I’m reeling! lol! It can also be called caving up the caucus….they don’t want the goose that laid the golden egg, they want a goose dinner….now

  119. madamab-quite an ant-ique, no?

  120. Is all the NE cloudy or just my town?

  121. Upstate: Sunny=Flashy= racist

  122. Hi Carol –

    I need a careet advisor, or a pep talk or a kick in the @ss or all of the above.

    I love your comment the other day (think it was yours)

    “I feel happy and now I have to look happy”

  123. I am in moderation, it was just a little joke, I promise

  124. “I just can’t STAND her. who does she think she is? She’s not qualified to do anything!”. I thought, this sounds like something one might overhear in high school. Has anybody else noticed this visceral reaction to Palin, especially from obamabot women?

    Yes. She is an instant threat, and they are furious that she has appeared and is ruining the illusion that was Barack’s Ascendancy. At NoQ today there is a post re: Pat Buchanan and he nails it. They hate her because she is not “one of them.” She is not Ivy League, pro-choice, secular, etc. She hunts. The snobs just find this all completely confounding. SHE DOESN’T KNOW HER PLACE! How can they possibly claim that she is “not qualified to do anything?”

    She has been quite successfully running a huge state, and before that a town that grew in size while she was Mayor to become the fourth largest city in AK. She manages a huge budget with something like 24,000 employees, is CIC of the National Guard, negotiates energy contracts with foreign officials, pushes legislation through with state officials etc. Do they not understand this or just refuse to acknowledge the information? The continual blind reactionary rejection of Palin and the adulation of BO (who has far less experience) reveals that it is a primal response. She is a threat to their privileged tribe.

  125. It can also be called caving up the caucus

    opps, I meant carcass! ….dang spell check!

  126. it is cloudy and gloomy here in central NC too upstate…must be the whole east coast…

  127. It’s cloudy here in the Boston area too, UpstateNY.

  128. parent, heh.

    Is gloomy any better? (Merriam-Webster: 1 a: partially or totally dark)…never mind.

  129. gary, bb….I have been landscaping so I am not complaining….however, having grown by the Mediterranean, I find cloudy depressing.

  130. It’s dark and gloomy in Westchester Count, NY.

    But it won’t be like this forever.

  131. fif, on September 16th, 2008 at 11:09 am

    IMO, the creative obots see Barry and the AA as their personal pets. They have decided to give Barry the office out of their largeness and no one must get in the way…

  132. Arabella, Nice seeing you.

  133. blue sky here in saratoga county

  134. Something bothering me the last couple of days–I know the polls show Obama down, but it seems as if they have refocused and are pounding the economy theme hard.

    If the polls can remain static the next few days, I think it will show that the o campaign’s more econ. focused message isn’t working. Until then, I don’t want to get too complacent. I guess it worries me that they may start doing better because of econ. focus.

  135. Went to my bookmarks…Cramer was on “Squawk Box on CNBC…so much for my recall.

  136. Sen us some, jonas.

  137. Sen=Send

  138. just back in from voting.
    voting against Kerry was such fun.

    Now I must read upthread to see who said they “couldn’t stand” Palin.

  139. from the page:
    The Land of Lincolner will outline his ideas to revamp regulatory framework, curb special interest influence and grow the economy during a midday speech in Golden, Colorado.


    everytime there is a problem there is a speech coming out of Obama’s mouth
    blah blah blah, just words???

  140. catarina, MABlue, others…..thanks!

  141. Whenever I visited the Whole Foods store in Lex last fall & this spring, I saw folks carrying & discussing the Kingsolver book Animal, Vegetable, Miracle and the Michael Pollan books. They’re good reads.

    The funny thing is, these books, particularly Kingsolver, touts raising and/or killing our own food. Try different kinds of wild game. Kingsolver gently ridicules Hollywood vegetarians for wanting to save the chickens or cows or whatever & put them in a big old corral for their entire lives.

    KIngsolver doesn’t get into politics, although she previously wrote a book harshly criticizing the war on terror. I just find it so amusing that these elite types don’t realize that moosehunting Palin exemplifies this approach to locovorism.

    BTW, no disrespect to vegetarians, Kingsolver is a former one, and I am a long-standing one.

  142. locovorim….interesting…does that apply to land snails too?

  143. upstate ny, club med? where? i was raised where the sun sets in the atlantic, close to the mediterranean

  144. I don’t stop worrying until Nov 4th….or beyond really , if it’s at all close, Barry WILL demand a recall and press will back him ….you betcha . We have a long road ahead since we want to keep this man and his handlers from power .

  145. my pleasure, Upstate!

  146. Eastern shore of Spain.

  147. Upstate – I’ve been around plenty, I just lost my umbrella gravatar for some reason. Now I’m a tantrum throwing amoeba.

  148. western shore of portugal

  149. where exacty upstate? spain is the place I feel I should have been born 🙂

  150. amoebas are God’s creatures, too, Arabella (tantrum throwing or not).

  151. paper doll, on September 16th, 2008 at 11:22 am Said:
    I don’t stop worrying until Nov 4th….or beyond really , if it’s at all close, Barry WILL demand a recall and press will back him ….you betcha . We have a long road ahead since we want to keep this man and his handlers from power

    Good point, paper doll. Wasn’t it you who said that this time around, BO is the Diebold Candidate? The world is really topsy-turvy. I hope that topsy-turvy is not rac*st.

  152. amoebae…yeah….whatever.

  153. kc:

    Something bothering me the last couple of days–I know the polls show Obama down, but it seems as if they have refocused and are pounding the economy theme hard.

    Yeah, after a yesterday morning’s cramming school session, the power-crickets came back with “Omigod, the economeeeee!” memes.

    That and some anarchy memes .

    Right now I think they are trying to stir stuff up and get us to waste energy and lose focus. Also, they are trying to sap our morale. As if!

  154. I feel kinda funny plugging Redstate Update, but their new video on Palin & the Media nails it. According to the video, liberals think only Democratic women can have it all, not those Republican women. I always found them over the top on the liberal media, but this year that is on the mark. Video is funny.

  155. Oh well, I saw Begala on Morning Joe-towards the end-and he was saying how Dems are being distracted by shiny objects like Palin. Now he said they have started to get their message out. He has a new book out–about Bush’s third term.

  156. jonas8, when I lived in Sevilla in my 20’s I visited the southern shore of portugal…camped on this deserted island near olhao. was beautiful. at the time the portuguese coast wasn’t nearly as overdeveloped as the spanish coast. I would bet it is now though….

  157. Arabella – it was me. I have been on the treadmill for the last 8 days. I’m thinking of going to swim starting today.

    McCain and Palin will be a nice surprise. I just know it.

    Until we can have our Hillary, I can live with McCain/Palin.


  158. Do people actually buy this “McCain is Bush’s third term” mantra? I can’t think of two more different people.

  159. kc:

    Something bothering me the last couple of days–I know the polls show Obama down, but it seems as if they have refocused and are pounding the economy theme hard.

    Yeah, after a yesterday morning’s cramming school session, the power-crickets came back with “Omigod, the economeeeee!” memes.

    Trying to get us to waste energy and lose focus.

  160. gary, my son wants to go to Spain. Me too. That will probably be our next trip together. His cousin is there right now.

  161. parentofed, on September 16th, 2008 at 11:20 am
    good point!

  162. McCain is no Bush.

    But, that is all BO has except of course the r*ce card.

  163. I highly recommend Barcelona. A beautiful city that stays up all night!

  164. Rescue me, I included url.

  165. Carol – You are an inspiration to me!

    I got a new haircut, a new lipstick, and a new attitude. Plus I’m on a diet and I’m walking 2 miles a day.


  166. The key to McCains failure now is the economy. Although I don’t think either candidate comes close to what Hillary could have provided, McCain could screw up on this issue. If he just gives his stump speech “people are hurting’ he could lose support.

    I will be interesting to see the polls 1 week from now.

  167. O/T
    I’ve been thinking about the media (hard not to). They couldn’t make people buy Obama over Hillary. But what they did do was make it acceptable for Obama to steal the nomination.
    This time around, I think the media will not be able to sell Obama over McCain… what I think they will attempt to do is create an environment where if the vote is close Obama is allowed to get away with anything.

    The media can’t seem to figure out how to just change the voting tolls at the machines (I know Axelbam is working hard to do that).

  168. Carol, the McCain election commission is a good idea. I’m here in S Florida and they still can’t get it right. The August primary in Palm Beach resulted in 3500 “disappeared” ballots. McCain should send an army of ‘watchers’ to this state.

    Home of the “hanging chad”

  169. I’m getting my haircut also. Probably Friday.

    I haven’t made it to 2 miles yet. I am in terrible shape from sitting all day and night. But, I will get there.

  170. Oh well, no rescue mission has arrived yet. In the meanitme I will cut and paste. Sorry for the repeat.

    Algarve? Heard is nice over there….lots of eurotourists.

    I am from the Costa Blanca area, lots of eurotourists too…yikes.

    Costa Blanca=White Coast…OMG

  171. SweetSue, on September 16th, 2008 at 11:26 am
    said :
    The world is really topsy-turvy. I hope that topsy-turvy is not rac*st.

    LOL! I got my uncle toms cabin cliff notes right here!
    I think you are in the clear!

  172. My sister lived in Barcelona for 6 months when her husband was working on a film there (called Barcelona.) I’ve always regretted that I couldn’t afford to go there for a visit while they were there.

  173. Carol and Arabella
    Please call my hairdresser and take my Fritos away.

  174. Arabella Trefoil, on September 16th, 2008 at 11:34 am

    You go girl!

  175. Barcelona is nice….so “European”…..

  176. fif, on September 16th, 2008 at 10:20 am

    … “Frankly, I don’t think we should be focused on the VP candidate on the other side. This goes way beyond one candidate.”


    That is called, winning the argument. She is indicting the entire Party, not just one person within it.

    This is how she would have beaten the pants off McCain in the GE.

    Electorally speaking, of course.


  177. madamab…our avatars are related!!!!

  178. Angela: I think you are right. In a close electoral vote, the stereotype is that Repubs cheat, and that will help Obama. Obama has greatly benefitted this year from political stereotypes.

  179. parent….Ds have the “fame” to appeal to dead voters so I would watch it if I were O.

  180. Carol – After I got fired, I OD’d on sugar and carbs. I also became like unto a plant that sitteth in one place.

    OK, so a month has gone by. Sulking is oh vah, baby.

    Gotta go. Lunch meeting.


  181. Watch “The Messiah” raise the dead in November! LOL!

  182. Laury, thanks….will visit BTF….see you all later.

  183. garychapelhill, Algarve is Portugal’s southern coast. I would recomend the western part of Algarve but better yet the western part of Portugal’s Atlantic coast. its less developed than the Southern part and is more wild, think Maine with warmer water and weather!!

  184. Laurie=Laury….my apologies.

  185. While Obama is too busy doing his own stuff, McCain will be attending the Clinton Global Initiative conference where he will will deliver the opening remarks. Obama will also be there but it will be via satellite.


  186. “Aging white women” i.e. worthless post-sexual hags. They just can’t help themselves, can they?

  187. On a cheerier note — less than 70,000 hits to a big Three Million!

  188. I think I’m responsible for at least one million of those.

  189. kenoshamarge, I remember learning that WI is blue based on voter turnout in the Milwaukee-Madison corridor. Otherwise, it’s not a particularly blue state.

  190. I’m waiting to see if the 527’s tout McCain’s Maverick image [which I think he needs to push] in relation to anti-Bush in a way that McCain cannot. Not only does McCain need to keep his base shored up, he is beholden to RNC dollars that were raised by Bush/Cheney. It is a delicate position, but the Republicans like to win. Perhaps they will just push Maverick without a mention of Bush, and hope people infer that.

  191. Dave, on September 16th, 2008 at 11:51 am


  192. garychapelhill, just because someone has a fancy degree doesn’t mean she’s not a Heather.

    I restrict my company to adults of whatever gender, not overgrown highschoolers.

  193. The aging white women comment besides having an implied snark to it, has a common sense problem.
    Um.. we’re all “aging.” So I guess they mean
    “white women.”

  194. Good afternoon, all. I took the test 25 times and got a 92. My take is that the results are largely luck!

    I think the electoral vote maps look somewhat encouraging. My state (New York) is ideed a pale shade of blue. Can’t understand it, since 95% of the people I know think I’m crazy when I tell them NOBAMA!!! Oh well, back to work,,,


  195. Saw a pro-union ad for Obama while at the gym last night. Showed middle-class white person in financial distress with the McCain’s words of economy good the last years. It was the most effective Obama ad I’ve seen locally, but that’s not saying a lot.

    I do think McCain/Palin need to stronly push their strong union creds, and I’ll bet Todd’s interview with Greta helped. Lots of union people don’t trust their leaders Dem leanings, so there is a big opening there for Repubs.

  196. Someone on another site made a very good observation.
    They asked “who was likely to live longer”
    would it be McCain or would it be a guy whose parents died early, has a history as a smoker, and is an ex (????- that’s me questioning that) drug user.
    Back to the actuarial tables, eh?

  197. Actually, all of Bo’s white women voters are not “aging”!

    Remember, he has quite a few “living challenged” white women voting for him!


  198. Hmm…..the kossacks have Obama up by 4 in their daily tracking poll. And rasmussen has McCain up only by 1. A little worrying, if you ask me. Lets hope that the state polls are better.

  199. Carol at 12:08

    ha! Isn’t that the truth.

  200. McCain and Cindy on CNN

  201. I would pay no attention to that Kos poll unless it were in line with what other polls are saying, and it isn’t. McCain is still ahead in other tracking polls.

  202. Another speech from Obama? It must be Tuesday. He always gives these pontifications from the mountaintop on Tuesdays. His campaign must have done a study on this and decided that Tuesday is the best day for boring, blow hard speeches.

  203. LOL. Love it. BO is bloviating. Must be Tuesday!

  204. i dont need to look at the calendar. obama’s speechfying

    he talks and talks and says nothing

  205. I like McCain’s new commitee for the election. LOL evidently these people do read anti obama’ boards. This is a great way to make sure that obama can’t A. accuse them of cheating, or be actually cheat himself the way he did in the democratic primaries.

  206. Obama is still contrasting with McCain, Mcain this McCain that, but what you are going to do, Senator Obama?

  207. Upstate NY – I know! We must be kindred monsters!

  208. ParkSlopeVoter: When people think of New York City as a liberal bastion, they tend to think of the young hipsters in the Village and the Upper West Side Columbia graduates. They look over the growing number of Hispanics and Chinese as well as the working class voters who are not yellow dog Democrats. I think there are also a lot of people here like Tina Fey who said in a NYTimes article that she might tell everyone that she is voting for Obama but might actually vote for McCain. There are a ton of Clinton supporters in this state (obviously) and I wouldn’t be surprised if a good number of them are like PUMAs. I don’t think many of us in NYC are screaming from the rooftops that we are voting for McCain. I haven’t told anyone except for one other Clinton supporter who plans to do the same. Liberals in this city will not confess to voting for McCain but it is obvious from the polls that everyone isn’t on board the Hope wagon.

  209. I also forgot to mention the significant number of pro-Israel Jews who vote mainly on this issue and do not trust Obama as much as McCain on Israel.

  210. As a MA resident, already did my primary vote for O’Reilly.

    I’m really hoping he gets enough votes to scare the Dems and Kerry back into be Fighting Democrats and not the Fainting Democrats they have been the past chunk of years.

  211. I just got back from voting for Ed. I am wearing an orange sweatshirt. I’d like to say I wore it on purpose, but I just grabbed it. Anyway, the poll worker asked me in my new unaffiliated state which ballot I wanted. When I asked for the D one, she said that she noticed I was wearing my Democratic colors and did I have the matching pantsuit? When I assured her that I did, she told me that voting in a primary where there were only three contested seats and one of them was for the officer of probate was “brisk” today. (I actually had to wait in a line.) There was only one contest that she believed would get many voters out today. I don’t think Ed’s going to win, but I think there may be enough votes for him to embarrass Kerry.

  212. Hey everyone – New Post Up!

    BTW – got a troll named “Jessica” who is cruising the old threads posting the NOW endorsement.

    Yes, NOW was so fervent in its support of the first viable woman for President. We’ll be sure to jump right on that v*gina-free O’Biden ticket now.

  213. Now’s ticket to relevance was Hill and they cancelled it .

  214. DisenfranchisedVoter,

    All good points; I certainly hope you’re right!


  215. Hey I scored a 92% on the test. NOW supports Obama, I just stopped supporting NOW. What good is a National Organization of Women if it supports a sexist prick.

  216. Obama fans are explaining away the polls with the new registered voters and underpolled Democrat arguments:

    And yes, NOW has officially jumped the shark.

  217. Biden’s “not used to someone so smart” remark complements Obama’s “bitter clingers” . They do belong together.

  218. “When I asked for the D one, she said that she noticed I was wearing my Democratic colors and did I have the matching pantsuit?”

    Ohhhhh I love the PUMA-whistles!! And the lady’s sense of humor! Hehehehe…

  219. Hi Katiebird -is that the film by Whit Stillman? It’s one of my favorite films if so.

  220. Just voted for Ed O’Reilly and wrote in Hillary under my unopposed Dem Congressman who voted for Nobama at the DNC as a delegate. Our district voted for Hillary 62% and Obama 36% in last Feb primary. I am outraged by the fact that my vote did not matter at the convention.

  221. i am loving how maryland is now only light blue and not solid blue anymore… lot’s of pumas probably and i am one of them… yeah… i have to say after living in virginia, bo won’t win it, it is a “southern” state period, it is red… it is a southern mentality, very conservative and traditional, so maybe the top towns and even richmond are blue, but the rest is deep red including the fact there are so many military and retired folks there…

  222. parentofed, on September 16th, 2008 at 12:06 pm Said:
    yes, i worked at a union print shop, and most of the literature they sent us endorsed dems, but all the people i worked with were repubs, so they probably just tossed the junk mail from their own unions. they had minds of their own and voted for who they related to the most which were republicans…

  223. […] work to do in making up for their own delegate theft. That Michigan might turn out to be one of the battleground states, makes the stakes all the higher. So recently this little tidbit came […]

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