The State of Play, June 5, 2008

What happened this week? What’s happening? And what’s going to happen? You have questions, we can narrow down the answers and discuss in comments.

What happened? Hillary won the week on the ground, dominating Obama 2-1 in Puerto Rico and finishing ahead in SD and MT on a combined apples-to-apples basis. More evidence surfaced that Obama’s pledged delegate lead (like his debatable parity in the popular vote) came only from the caucuses, and that caucuses are lousy indicators of popular preference even in caucus states.

We got kneecapped by the Rules and Bylaws Committee. FL and MI delegations will be half-seated, but MI won’t be seated as won, and major violence was done to the bedrock of Party rules in the process.

And Obama won the one that counts — the mindshare primary — convincing the preponderance of pundits and pols that the nomination goes to the candidate with the most pledged delegates.

What’s happening now? Many of Hillary’s prominent allies are party animals (as is she), and more than a few are career politicians. The political ecosystem they inhabit has its own laws of nature, and many would face threats to their own viability if she held out too long.

Hillary knows this, and she does not burn allies for no good reason. She’ll put them in position to continue their careers. She’s loyal, even to a fault.

What’s NOT going to happen?

Forget the Sunday pundit pop-psychology. Her next move WON’T be determined by “the grieving process” or “coming to terms” with anything. That’s the way they think, because that’s the way they would act and react … because if they could do it, they would be doing it for reasons of personal ambition, and they would have trouble functioning if their hopes were dashed. That’s who they are, not who Hillary is, and that’s why they can’t understand the action unfolding before their eyes.

Also, Hillary will NOT run as an independent (though someone else might, at this juncture). She will NOT run on a McCain/Clinton ticket. She is a true blue Democrat with a capital ‘D’. Loyal, even to a fault. She has seen her Party stumble again and again, but she has never quit on it, and she’s not going to start.

Her next move will be calculated — calculated to achieve the best results possible for her country first and her party second, given the resources at her disposal and the unfortunate positional disadvantages on the landscape in front of her. That’s what she will do, because that’s who she is.

What is going to happen?

As best she can, Hillary will make an all-out effort to clear ground for Obama the Unready … to protect him from the slings and arrows on the trail ahead of him. This is the high road, and Hillary will take it (confounding her detractors). It won’t be an act. She’ll put her heart and soul into it.

We can’t say exactly how this will play out. We don’t have the information, and none of us are as smart as she is. Whatever course she marks out, it’ll be the best course of action for her allies in the profession of politics.

It’s also her best, most realistic path to nomination this year, should the opportunity develop (which it may). Going to bat for Obama keeps her available and in good standing, just in case Obama implodes any time from now to convention. It’s a long hot summer, the putative nominee is untested and unvetted, and there are tougher predators out there than any he’s encountered in his charmed stroll in the zoo to date. He just thinks she played hardball in the primaries. She’s been protecting him all along.

What are we going to do?

Hillary will ask us to rejoin the collective, hold our noses and hit the trail for unity and country, and learn to like it again. As the campaign gets moving, McCain will give us abundant reason to do so. Many of us will — as is usual in the aftermath of hard-fought nomination battles.

But many of us won’t. Lines have been crossed that have never been crossed before, and can’t be uncrossed. Much as we love our country, much as we’ve given our hearts to the Party in past stretches of adversity, we know the institution has been taken over at grassroots level by a clique of reflexive fanatic haters, and at higher levels by opportunists who mistakenly think this is to their advantage.

And we know this takeover could not have happened except that millions of regular Democrats went headlong into this historic decision cycle with their bullshit detectors unplugged! We know something is very wrong here. Whatever it is, more shoulders to the wheel will just make it worse.

We will listen respectfully to our candidate … and then, with deep regrets, we will go our own ways.

PUMAs will follow our own high roads, unclaimed and untamed, padding our ways over the high wilderness ridges on our big cats paws, calm but vigilant, reading the wind for signs of danger — and opportunity.