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Open Thread

Materials for the May 31 Rules and Bylaws Commitee meeting have been published (pdf) by Politico and by TalkLeft. Obamites have drawn attention to a staff analysis that appears to suggest RBC lacks authority to relieve sanctions beyond the bounds of the “automatic” 50% reduction in voting strength. In the morning call, RBC members (and oldtimers) Harold Ickes and Tina Flournoy advised that this is a misinterpretation of the staff report. In their view it merely attempts to clarify two competing interpretations of the 50% penalty, if applied.

Obama won Idaho’s “beauty contest” primary last night … with 56% of the Democratic vote (in contrast to his 79% caucus win), and a smaller popular margin over Hillary.

Evidence is mounting that Obama is the weaker general election candidate. Resistance to recognizing this fact is also mounting.

What else ya got?

36 Responses

  1. Novak’s blurb about Mark Warner courted as a potential VP candidate is interesting.

    Former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, a strong favorite to be elected to the Senate this year, has told associates that he is being considered as Barack Obama’s vice presidential running mate. He did not indicate whether he would be receptive to such an offer.

    Although no Democratic presidential nominee has carried Virginia since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Democrats see the state as being in play for the 2008 election and would like to see a Virginian on the national ticket. Both current Gov. Tim Kaine and freshman Sen. Jim Webb have been mentioned, but neither possesses Warner’s prestige.

    I found it at Rasmussen.

  2. Resistance to recognizing this fact is also mounting.
    tell me about it!
    Just posted at openleft facts and data showing his weakened state
    http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=85F3DC8C082550EBDA5625250AE24561?diaryId=6027
    and its all la la la

    Rasmussen was going to stop polling may 9
    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/rasmussen_reports_to_stop_tracking_democratic_race
    because they thought the nom was wrapped up
    but
    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fewer_democrats_want_hillary_to_drop_out
    found that 29% of us want ther to run as an I, 29% of us want Obama to drop out! (even I do not espouse undemocratic ideas like forcing the weak candidate out!) and some other shocking results….

    …that Rasmussen IS still polling, after May 9 tells me SOMEBODY wants to compare both Obama AND Clinton against McCain still…

  3. Warner, in my view, is VA’s best bet to add value to an Obama ticket, and to carry the state for that ticket in November.

    He’s also VA’s best bet to keep a Senate seat in our column.

    Webb’s seat was hard-won, largely due to the macaca fluke, and is anything but nailed down.

    Kaine doesn’t have the cachet of either man, in either position (VP or Senate candidate/replacement).

    For VA’s sake, and for the sake of a strong Senate majority, it’d be wise not to play this game … but an Obama ticket will need VA Electoral College votes desperately, to compensate for deficits elsewhere.

    Tough bind, if Obama’s the nominee.

  4. http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May28.html

    Clinton 327 McCain 194

    (is compilation of polling state by state by Rasmussen etc…)

  5. Check these numbers from KY

    Obama 32
    McCain 57

    Clinton 51
    McCain 42

    McConnell (R) 44
    Lunsford (D) 49

    So, with Hillary Clinton on top of the ticket, we have the opportunity to carry KY (a State Bill won twice) and knock out cro-magnon Mitch McConnell.

    Whose coattails will helps Dems in swing States?

  6. Those KY numbers — wow.

  7. watch the video at Taylor Marsh it will put a smile on your face and make you want to dance.

    Let’s win this in memory or Eight Belles.

  8. Clinton’s electoral votes keep incrementing every week!

    Now WHO is the weaker candidate?

    Clinton’s EV momentum is brewing like a tropical storm morphing into Hurricane Hillary.

    Rise Hillary, Rise!

  9. MABlue — The Rasmussen KY result I liked was this:

    Should Clinton drop out? Yes, 25%.
    Should Obama drop out? Yes, 35%!

  10. ronkseattle:

    You’ve got the best KY numbers evaaaaaaaaah!

    LOL!

    More Dems in KY want BO to drop out? These guys are winners.

  11. ronkseattle, I’m curious though, what’s your sense as to how open the sds are to rational persuasion? I don’t want to be a pessimist, but I’m afraid that some of our SDs seem less than bright (for example, anyone who’s publicly confessed to endorsing Obama because he’s a favorite among his or her underage kids, oy), and as for the rest, I give them credit for understanding that Obama will lose to McCain, I’m just not sure if they care at this point.

  12. I think the rasmussen national numbers are even more amazing. 32% of dems think Clinton should drop out, but 23% think the Obama should drop out. An incredible 29% say that Clinton should run as an independent.

  13. I know this isn’t a scientific poll, and maybe someone has poll data on this, but I have several moderate Republican women friends who are very fired up about voting for Hillary in the GE (and, of course, all the Democratic women won’t vote for Obama and are talking about McCain). I’m sorry if this has been covered already

  14. Little Sister: As I have said before, they are convinced that come November we will have gotten over our collective sulk at his nomination and immediately endorse Obama at the polls. They shoo off our concerns because they honestly believe by pushing the Roe v Wade decision for the SC will automatically bring us around.

    I can sit here today and tell you that nothing will make me change my mind if he is the nominee. He will prove to be what we already suspect: unqualified and inexperienced equals total disaster. It won’t be that easy for them to lure some of us back into the sandbox but I know I am not going to be there. No fair play with Hillary, then no fair play with Barack. Simple as that.

  15. Little Sister — Here’s an answer I posted at TL:

    === === ===
    I don’t think they want to lose.

    I don’t think they’ve read the warning signs of defeat yet, either. Many of them are still caught up in Obama’s early wave of big rallies and “goosebumps” speeches, his early appeal to independent voters and disgruntled Republicans, and still have visions of a landslide victory or a generational realignment.

    They’re living in the recent past’s imaginary near future.

    I also think many of them don’t care that much about losing the White House, IF an Obama candidacy brings them dollars, eager young volunteers, and record high African-American turnout in their home states. Those things can win down-ballot races, and that’s where most superdelegates’ bread is buttered.
    === === ===

    Further, I don’t think they’re dumb bunnies … even those that blame their children! These several hundred SD’s are lifers who have lived lives in politics, they have treasuries of knowledge formal and otherwise, and they take readings in all sorts of strange places. Either they’ll figure it out, or they won’t, but they are highly susceptible to persuasive argument, rational and otherwise. (They are NOT very susceptible to dunderheaded argument, or to pressure, noise, heat, etc).

  16. Robin, you are absolutely right. These women will go right to McCain. And there’s no way they will persuade them to come back. These women are the backbone of the party and society. And they will weather the storm and quietly get revenge.

    JJ, nothing more infuriating then politicians doing what their kids tell them to do. Remember Maria Shriver saying that her daughter convinced her when she was taking her to riding lessons. I remember Andrea Mitchell just glowing over this story. How out of touch can one be.

  17. So, with Hillary Clinton on top of the ticket, we have the opportunity to carry KY (a State Bill won twice) and knock out cro-magnon Mitch McConnell.

    MA I think the same in OK: with Hillary we could knockout the literally world-famous cro-magnon Jim Inohofe !!!!!

    Her margins and turnout were humungous among kids in OK. She is the one with coat tails. Her real Democrats vote downticket.

  18. I don’t know about the rest of you, but I don’t intent to be led to Obama by some kid who just scored tickets to the latest Hannah Montana concert!

  19. Lou Dobbs is at again today just started at 12:00 west coast .

    http://www.loudobbsradio.com/

    had to download something called jet cast , but yesterday my friend told me he did it and then easily removed it .. and today has downloaded it again ..

    only missed about 1/2 hour so far ..

  20. http://www.gallup.com/poll/107539/Hillary-Clintons-SwingState-Advantage.aspx

    Gallup is the most reliable. Funny thing is I found this on Real Clear Politics an hour ago, now they’ve removed it!

  21. Thanks, ronk. That’s actually what I’ve been telling others to buoy their spirits–hey, they’re lifers, there’s a reason why they haven’t endorsed O when the whole party has been pressuring them to do so for ages. I guess I’m just getting impatient.

    Maybe someone has some numbers on how Obama will influence the downticket races. Especially given the fact that his wins seem to correlate with low turnout (so there goes the new voter argument, seemingly), I find it very hard to believe that a McCain blowout wouldn’t also potentially result in large downticket losses.

  22. New Univision PR poll via Talk Left

    C: 51
    O: 38

    11% undecided. I hope she gets the late deciders like all the other primaries.

  23. Oh and we need to revote Michigan or Obama gets 0 votes from that state. We can’t give him any votes right now since he voluntarily took his name off the ballot.

  24. In other news, a new SUSA poll has McCain beating Obama 41-37. It’ll be in more peril if McCain picks Romney as his running mate.

    Listen up SD’s!!!

  25. Oops that SUSA poll is for Michigan.

  26. Can anyone explain how ‘getting the message out’ to vote uncommitted is NOT campaigning?

  27. Lou thinks Hillary has until the end of June to run as and Independent. I hope she decides to drop the Democratic party as they have done to her. Though I would vote for McCain if I have to, I’d love to vote for Hillary in the GE and feel good about casting my vote, that I wouldn’t completely get with a McCain vote.

  28. I heard a while back that Mark Warner had been approached about running for the presidency, and that he wasn’t interested because he has a life and had no interest in giving it up. I suppose he could consider the VP slot, as it’s less restrictive. I lived in VA when he was governor. he seemed to be a pretty cool guy.

  29. 59-40 among LV in the same PR poll!

  30. Mark Warner for BO VP? That has to be the 30 name mentioned. how many does this guy need? Does Obama tell everyone he will make them VP???

  31. My favorite comments about Keith Olbermann, seen around the net today:

    1. Pertaining to his Friday “Special rant, “Is that a shark, are those water skis?”

    2. And something about his running out of gaskets to blow.

    3. And Time magazine called him “a parody of himself,” or something like that.

    I dearly love when a person gets their just due.

  32. And a vent:

    Blogs are really getting to me today. The one (and currently only) thing I lik(ed) about KOS was that (prior to the Obama gang mobs) you could actually post anything you wanted without fear of being “deleted”.

    I know people own their blogs, but some are quite bizarre and inconsistent about what they feel is delete-worthy and I think it really stifles discourse. Things the blog owners can say without a problem can’t be said by the mere humans that frequent the blogs. I do long for the old days of “free posting”. I used to own a mailing list and I know how hard the policing can be, so I DO understand .

    I’m just venting. And obviously I don’t think Confluence is a problem or I wouldn’t vent HERE!

  33. maybe keith olbermann wants to be v.p…..would be nice to hide him away in a bunker somewhere

  34. BTD over at Talkleft has some more pieces up about the DNC memo. A good one is:

    If The DNC Is Going To Strictly Apply The Rules . . .
    http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/5/28/164638/636

    Interesting evaluation of the rules… he ends with:

    [By my math, a strict interpretation of the DNC rules would result in a net gain of 80 or 89 pledged delegates for Clinton. I am unsure of what the result would be regarding super delegates. For example, if the Florida and Michigan Super Delegates are stripped or halved, then the same result would apply to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. I am unsure of what the result of such an action would be.]

  35. I heard Newt Gingrich, hypocrite extraordinaire, on a right wing radio talk show today, and he predicted that Bob Barr’s Libertarian Party run would sink McCain and hand the presidency to Obama. he’s probably correct. it’s depressing.

  36. How pathetic has the Democratic Party become?

    Rightwinger Rich Lowry looks towards FL and compares Dems 2000 vs Dems 2008. He comes to a DUH conclusion.(via BTD)

    Back in 2000, Democrats were contemptuous of rules and technicalities about how ballots had to be marked and the process for recounts. All that mattered was the popular will. And the biggest ultimate obstacle to it was the Electoral College, which kept Al Gore from the White House in this “stolen election.”

    Well, the Democrats’ attachment to the unadulterated popular will has gone the way of the hanging chad. Suddenly, Democrats are sticklers for rules. Florida and Michigan became non-states for moving their primary contests up in the calendar in defiance of Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean. A mere matter of timing has been enough to “disenfranchise” — to use the 2000 argot — 2.3 million Democratic voters.

    It’s easy to imagine what Democrats circa 2000 would say about this. Denying the votes in Florida and Michigan would betray the “generation of patriots who risked and sacrificed on the battlefield” in the American Revolution, and be tantamount to “the poll taxes and literacy tests, violence and intimidation, dogs and tear gas” of the Jim Crow era. Counting the votes — ensuring “that every voice is heard and every vote is counted” — would be a cause worthy of the abolitionists and suffragists.

    Of course, Hillary Clinton has said all of these things. But instead of being hailed as a crusader for justice, she has been greeted with impatient eye-rolls from most of the Democratic establishment and the press who can’t believe Clinton’s temerity in insisting on counting Florida and Michigan. What has gotten into the once-admirable junior senator from New York?

    The change from 2000 to 2008 is simple to explain. Back then, the liberal establishment wanted Gore to beat Bush. Now, most of it wants Obama to finish off Hillary. The standards have changed accordingly.

    How sad?

    Who knew the Democratic establishment never really stood for anything besides defeating and destroying Hillary Clinton?

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