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It’s On at MyDD: Quant Geeks vs the Creative Writing Class!

DaveOinSF regresses the Primary vs Caucus results in TX, WA, NE and ID!

Long story short, the data — though limited — fits like a glove. Dave proceeds to derive expected primary margins if the other caucus states had conducted primaries, and from that to derive alternative-reality delegate margins.

Upshot: Obama’s caucus pledged delegate margin of +137 would have shrunk to +14.

UPDATE: The Creative Writing Class is making a game effort over there, and, well … hilarity ensues!

22 Responses

  1. Everybody help out – the Obamacons have it down to a science – how to jump in and completely destroy any discussion at MyDD. Recommend and help our whenever/wherever you can.

    This week’s troll comment is “This is a snark…serious question.” or words to that effect.

  2. I had no idea all of these primaries were occurring. What a crock!

  3. the comments at MyDD are completely ridiculous. The obama fans think that its great that Obama gamed the caucus states and then they conclude that because of that Obama is a better candidate than Clinton.

    This is pathetic. I grew up in Southern Europe and I grew up with people like the obama fans. i used to call them comunists, they would be the most organized, the most coordinated, the best with talking points, never straying from their talking points and always ready to control their friends to keeping them in line. if my country had caucus tehy would win for sure. fortunately we had elections and thus they can continue to be a small minority that are great at organizing though.

    I never thought that a minority with great power of organization would be able to game the elections in the USA. its very sad that the majority voting for hillary will be silenced by these obama followers.

  4. We will not be silence. Our voices will be hear loud and clear when John McCain is elected president if it comes to that.

    I don’t go to My DD anymore.

  5. I know – I laugh when I’m told that Obama proves he can be a great POTUS because he ran a great campaign.

    I mean, what can you possibly say to such stupidty?

  6. nothing, there is nothing to say about the stupidity of some Obama supporters. its impossible to argue with them. The thing they seem to ignore is that the GE are not caucuses and they cannot intimidate people in the voting booth. There is nothing they can do to change or influence my vote

  7. I’ll have to knock off here very soon, hope some of you can carried the fight – and the rec’s.

  8. those comments are precious. I especially like lizardbox’ bragging about an A he got on a calculus exam in college TWELVE YEARS AGO!!!

    LOL! ROTFL!!

    Dude! Make some new memories!

    I think those guys over there play WAY too much World of Warcraft.

  9. It is useless to go over to MyDD, HuffPo, TPM, even Politico. It is Obama all the time. The commentators are like thugs. The language is unbelievable and you can tell there is not much else going inside their heads except the excuse to demean and insult. It is truly an experience and I give credit to people like Alegre and a few others who still manage to get their points out while being attacked so shamefully.

  10. I love smart guys. I really do. I think it’s fun to talk to guys who know how to think and analyze and discuss ideas in detail, or explain complicated systems in clear and concise terms. In other words, I love geeks.

    BUT, Good God those fellas are the worst possible kind of geek. Their laughably misplaced and overblown pride in their ability to Decipher, Decode, and Declaim about the most trivial details of caucuses and arithmetic makes me embarrassed for them. It really does.

  11. To his/her credit, Eriposte showed something similar months ago.

  12. To his/her credit, Eriposte showed something similar months ago.

    BTW, I love “Creative Writing Class”.

  13. Those r^2’s are pretty impressive. Too bad we don’t have a bit more data. But what I can’t get over is the way Democrats have slipped into freeperism so easily. Where the f@#% is that coming from? I thought we were the non-authoritarian party.

  14. Riverdaughter,

    I’m pretty sure a lot of the Obamacans *are* freepers–whether current or former. I lost count of how many ex-Republicans were at DK declaring for Barack. I always thought that was suspicious as hell.

  15. A bit of a rant on mydd these days, which has morphed into DK II: Todd Beeton is a little twit on a power trip, issuing his snide “warnings” to any poster who links to a source he personally doesn’t like. It’s classic authoritarianism. I am disturbed by the growing sense of paranoia at progressive blogs these days. I know it’s crucial to keep mischief at a minimum from “trolls” who would hijack discussions; on the other hand, when progressives dictate the sources of information allowed to be discussed, it is a creepy crawl over the line into totalitarian thuggishness. The common refrain these days to anyone who dissents from the “party line” is “Republican Troll!!” “Republican Troll!” It’s getting a little ridiculous out there…We have been turned into “Republican Trolls” because we support Hillary Clinton.

    I was naive to think progressives were any different than wingnuts, I suppose. But, since when are progressives the ones who limit information and dictate what sources people should read?! As a former reporter–with a degree in communications–I go to MANY sources for my information, including wingnut sites. I’m not threatened by reading an opponent’s arguments; I’m strengthened by it. To demand–on a blog where discussion is the point–that no one post a link to a wingnut site, even in a list of numerous sources–is CRAZY. I’m an independent thinker, a critical thinker, and an information junkie. I am then better able to discern what is truth, from what is propaganda. I cannot even imagine what it is like inside these little power-mongers’ brains when they believe they have the right to shut out information from any source, since, in my view, anyone can challenge the argument that the source makes, if they feel so inclined. I guess Todd Beeton would have rendered Tom Paine unacceptable, in his time. It’s anathema to me.

    Just my little rant for the morning.

  16. An argument I had at cheatopia – I was quoting lobbying data from opensecrets.com – and one of those thugs was demanding instead I read factcheck.com.

    I had not heard of it and looked at it and it just read like RW propoganda – so I reverted to quoting the opensecrets data, and was denounced for not using the “correct site”…

    Later realized factcheck.com is right on Obamas campaign site!

    They don’t want independent verification…

  17. They are called the creative class because they create their own realities.

    Lucky for us, numbers don’t lie.

  18. BMC:

    “I was naive to think progressives were any different than wingnuts, I suppose. But, since when are progressives the ones who limit information and dictate what sources people should read?!”

    Your mistake is in believing those people are actually progressives. They are, by definition, NOT progressives if they adopt RW tactics and talking points.

  19. dotcommodity-it’s factcheck.org and it is neutral. It treats all the candidates equally. I use it frequently to check BO’s bs. They wtote about how he was lying about lobbyists and about how he gets more money from Big Pharma than Hill or McCranky, etc.

  20. Actually, Obama’s website has a page at factcheck.barackobama.com

    At a glance, it looks similar to factcheck.org, which is nonpartisan, which is why there may be some confusion.

  21. Shainzona said, “I laugh when I’m told that Obama proves he can be a great POTUS because he ran a great campaign.

    I mean, what can you possibly say to such stupidty?”

    You can say, “George W. Bush ran TWO great campaigns, and just look what a GREAT President HE turned out to be.”

  22. They’re hopeless dingbats. They fell for Obama’s shallow, fact free rhetoric, and for the media’s childish smears and insults. They don’t recognize the Clinton’s vast knowledge and flawless reasoning. And they’re not impressed with governing record and achievement.

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