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Saturday: Are Obama and the DNC working for Hillary?

As we get farther along in this primary season, I am becoming more and more convinced that the DNC is using Barack Obama’s campaign to make Hillary look like a more credible candidate. I figure that sometime during the latter half of 2007 they realized they had a problem with the perception of Hillary as a former first lady and the “inevitable”candidate. So, they schemed to put Obama, a lightweight with no real experience forward as a perfect foil for her. It’s sort of like good cop/bad cop. He behaves like an arrogant neophyte, can’t debate his way out of a paper bag, behaves disrespectfully towards his opponent, insults each voting block one by one and has hordes of supporters who make the screaming hooligans at a Manchester United football match look like dainty debutantes.

Then, add to this mix the media narrative and the supposedly too-scared-of-their-own-shadows superdelegates. She skillfully loses primaries in western states where the DNC cleverly over allocated more delegates than is sensible. Donna Brazile, who is secretly in love with Hillary, maneuvers to disenfranchise two of her states and hundreds of her delegates. And it is all designed to make it look like the odds are stacked against her because Pelosi and Dean know that there is nothing Americans like so much as an underdog.

It is working brilliantly. Hillary went from looking like an overachieving former first lady and US senator to a strong, scary smart, tenacious, poised, confident tough-as-nails future first executive and the voters are loving her. The DNC knew they had accomplished the impossible when, in spite of the “Mission Accomplished” meme of the past several weeks, Hillary subjected Obama to not one but *two* humiliating defeats in West Virginia and then Kentucky. Women, working class, gays, hispanics and admiring men all over the country are saying, no, demanding Hillary as their Commander in Chief or they will vote for McCain. They are turning their backs on Obama in droves.

The DNC has succeeded beyond its wildest expectations. But it wasn’t enough. Last night, they had the fine young cannibals who support Obama pile on for another political cheap shot by exploiting the assassaination of Robert F Kennedy, followed by a self-righteously indignant proclamation from Obama himself that that kind of talk “has no place in a campaign”. Surely, he knew how ridiculous looking it was for him to be lecturing the Clintons about campaigning, but it is a pattern that we can now all clearly see. It makes sense once you put it together with his operatives calling the Clintons racists and “brushing their dirt off his shoulders”. It is all designed to make us loathe him. Well done, Senator Obama. Bravo!

And now we have evidence that the whole conspiracy is paying off. The latest Newsweek poll shows that nationally Obama (our presumptuous nominee) is tied with McCain while Clinton is beating McCain by four points. But that’s not all. The latest Hominid Views Monte Carlo simulation maps (nice job, Darryl) show that Clinton is unbeatable! (Obama, sadly, is not)

Here is Obama’s probabilty map. He has only 32.7% probability of beating McCain:


And here is Hillary’s probabilty map against McCain. She beats him 99.9% of the time.


And here are the trend lines showing how successful the DNC campaign for Clinton has been:


It looks like Obama peaked in early March while Clinton is on a slow and steady upswing. And it is all building up to a breathtaking finish in Denver where, like the 1980 US Olympic Hockey team, Hillary will miraculously win the nomination, the balloons will drop from the ceiling, there will be ticker tape parades and much rejoicing. The country will rally together to beat McCain in a landslide election, banishing the Republicans from power for a generation. I’m telling you, it was a master stroke of genius. Dr. Dean, take a bow!

78 Responses

  1. Amazing.

  2. I *know*! Who would have thought they were doing it all for her? But it all makes sense now, doesn’t it?

  3. electoral-vote.com has Clinton trouncing McCain in electoralvotes 315 to 206!

    Obama: loses the WH to McCain: who gets 272: remember 270 gets you in the door.

    Even the big orange cheatopia now has a fper feeling the need to encourage the hooligans with headline news: Obama can win California!

  4. BTW another brilliant post – funny and so full of fruity truthiness.

    riverdaughter, you are a gem.

  5. AC-in-NC: I’m afraid I am going to have to delete your comment. We don’t repeat Republican talking points by deliberate use of Obama’s middle name. He seems to be sensitive to it. Additionally, it is not only *white* working people who are affected by the way the primaries have been conducted. The African-American community will be very negatively impacted as well. There is nothing in Obama’s America for them. They are being used by their candidate. It is very sad. So, please keep these two things in mind when you write your next comment.

  6. Sounds like we might be tying Hillary’s hands behind her back, it is his name and I never said it was only whites that were affected by the primaries, I quoted Donna Brazil on CNN about not being as important as in the past . your site and you can do as you like though . I still love the site and your writings.

  7. AC: No problem. I’m just asking that we exercise restraint and avoid what others may construe as scoring easy points.

  8. G’morning RD!

    The DNC and Obama campaign seem to be doing their best to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in traditional Democrat fashion.

    The Clintons aren’t traditional Democrats – they win.

  9. Holy Hemiola! She wins Missouri? MISSOURI?!! And New Hampshire and Nevada! OMG, he is major toast.

  10. God bless the DNC, they always have our back. I guess we can all stop worrying about the country, it is in good hands. But , please, don’t forget to keep giving the DNC money.

  11. Quite frankly I have no idea who the DNC is working for. Not the liberal/progressive community and not the Democrat party/voters.

    Obama, that’s easier; Obama is for Obama is for Obama. Every word everyone says that is not properly respectful and adoring is an insult and he’s just not gonna put up with it. (Pouting with hand on hip)

    The problem with the Obamacrat Misogynistic Party is that they threw half the voters they will need to win a general election on the scrap heap. Not a very smart thing to do IMHO.

    And another problem the Obamacrat Misogynistic Party has is that they woke up the sleeping, nearly moribund feminists and reminded us how really pi$$ed off we were, are and will be until we are treated with respect.

    All in all it appears to me that the DNC has served no one well and Obama would lead the Obamacrat Misogynistic Party to certain defeat in a general election. Which is why the smart money is on Senator Hillary Clinton.

  12. Now that I’ve looked at the data, I’m stunned that mainstream media has not reported a big story like this. Obama has been in decline since March. He has not expanded his base at all. That is the political suicide.

    There’s an old saying: You can only coast down hill.

    Not so long ago, people where complaining about a boring primary season – a Hillary Coronation. Dean and Brazille are scary smart to make her look like the underdog. heh.

  13. Triangulated between the Vast Left and Right Wing Conspiracies. The Center is where the winner always comes from.

    The question for the SDs is, who will be running from the center this fall?

    Barack? No.

    McCain? Yes, if his opponent is Obama. No, if his opponent is Hillary.

    Clinton? yes.

  14. That was great RD ! I was feeling quite discouraged but now that I see what’s really been happening I feel much better 🙂
    Seriously….this has all just reached the point where the only word I can use to describe it is insanity.
    For the DNC it has never been about winning back the white house….it’s been about destroying the Clintons.
    I’ll never understand that….nor forgive them.

  15. Well, some mysterious forces (yeah right) are starting to remove Hillary from tracking polls or bury them. Rasmussen does not quiet eliminate her in their most recent Penn poll but wait until the 7th paragraph she polls better than McCain and Obama. “They” have made sure she does not get any good press and now they will remove her from polls. Watch.

  16. Good morning all. Tide’s in this sunny morning and I am doing my damndest to be positive in order to face the day…then, Riverdaughter does it again.

    Talk about making lemonade out of sour lemons…!

    OK! So….the plan is working! I’ll buy it until my meds wear off in about an hour or so…

  17. Well, finally on a take on this that makes sense! Good job RD.

  18. :AC-n-NC: I quoted Donna Brazil on CNN about not being as important as in the past . your site and you can do as you like though . I still love the site and your writings.

    riverdaughter: AC: No problem. I’m just asking that we exercise restraint and avoid what others may construe as scoring easy points.”

    Both of you – thanks for working together. I read your original post AC with dismay…riverdaughter, thankyou for pruning it, and to both of you thank for being civil.

    We all (including you AC), need a refuge from the truthy horror that has taken hold in postfascist America, and riverdaughter has provided one.

  19. Is the GE prediction map using primary election data? (only democrats are voting in primary, while GE is general public)

  20. I really think that the hominidviews predictions have been deficient for a long time. Take for example this SUSA poll predicting HRC winning in NC or these SUSA polls showing BO winning heavily in VA and OH. I agree with the underlying point that HRC is stronger than BO in GE trial heats but I think you and hominid views are consistently underestimating how many republican strongholds are in very serious danger from either candidate and by extension the strength of either candidate.

  21. MI/FL and Puerto Rico will change the math. Once MI/FL are included, the delegate number needed moves up and even if its Florida, it moves the goal posts up (2025 delegates is where the on the brink of the nomination stories are coming from). She should definitely fight for Michigan and push for another primary on Aug. 5th if the Michigan situation is not resolved adequately on 5/31. I do think Florida is on its way to being accepted judging from the Obama campaign’s reaction lately.

    Puerto Rico will hopefully make her popular vote argument stronger.

  22. LOL You’re serious, right?

  23. Ryan, I totally disagree with you. Republicans in Rep. strongholds and elsewhere are much better at falling in line especially when they dogwhistle to their evangelical foot soldiers that they are 1 vote away from undoing Roe v. Wade.

  24. Ryan: The hominid views maps are monte carlo simulations that predict probability *based on today’s polls*. There is every expectation that the media will have an impact on the GE and this will fall disproportionally against Obama. But these kinds of predictions are used in many different industries from pharmaceutical research to Wall Street. There are a couple general statements that can make about MC simulations: 1.) the more data, the better the accuracy and precision of the prediction and 2.) trends are fairly reliable. That is, if you want a better prediction, provide more polling data and data with better descriptors. With Rasmussen planning to phase Clinton ot of the GE polls against McCain, this is going to be more difficult. They probably know this which may be why they are planning to do it. Trends are very hard to fudge. There are principal components in the data that we could break down using other statistical packages and these contribute to the trends. I’m afraid those are all too real. Whether you like it or not, Obama’s fortunes are sinking while Clinton’s are ascendant.
    Now, the scientist in me sees data that is hard to ignore and it is saying, quite unmistakably, that the support behind Clinton is solid and growing and that Obama will never again see the kind of support that he enjoyed in March. Time shows that the more voters see of Obama, the less likely they are to vote for him. The reverse is true for Clinton.
    The DNC and the SDs may choose to ignore this data but wishing really hard does not make it go away. The presidency of Barack Obama is a beautiful theory that is being destroyed by ugly facts.
    There is one other thing: in my profession, fudging the data and lying about results is grounds for dismissal and can permanently ruin your professional reputation. (See David Baltimore). If Pelosi and Dean want to continue down this route, we should not be surprised if their reputations are ruined as well.

  25. and they succeed in pushing him so well that he gets the nomination. I think they do not see how they can lose – he brings in tons of money and new voters and angry Republicans etc. So if they lose, the WH, they still win the people they think they could not have gotten otherwise and the party has some muscle whether they win or not.

    But they do not think they will lose the WH.

    It is nice to see you with all your passion intact, Riverdaughter. I am so turned off by what passes for discourse in the blog world that I dont read much anymore.

    Take care –

  26. Obama’s latest stunt exploiting Robert Kennedy’s death to benefit HIMSELF – is the last straw for us!

    The many PHYSICAL THREATS to Hillary that are rec’d on Obama blogs and encouraged by site owners who incite Hillary-hate is deplorable!
    But it’s OK because it’s Hillary.

    We are witnessing a major coup – led by the Dem Party leadership and DC media – to nominate and elect their elite Washington establishment candidate!

    If you agree – instructions on left side –

  27. I want to believe you. Oh how I want to believe you! For a long time my brother (supports Rep) insisted that Obama was there to make Hillary more electable. I argued and argued…

    If this is true, it’s a work of pure genius! So long as people don’t find out later…

    Now back to reality o-()

  28. Are the DNC nuts? The GOP are starting to become quietly confident about their chances in November.

    “GOP strategists mull McCain blowout”


    “Among the 10 strategists interviewed by Politico for this story, there was near-uniform belief that had any other Republican been nominated, the party’s prospects in November would be nil.

    “No disrespect to the other candidates,” said GOP pollster Glen Bolger, “but if anyone else had been nominated we’d be toast.”

    Just let Democracy take its course and Hillary can win the nomination. Let Florida stand and revote Michigan (or keep the current results). There is also Puerto Rico.

  29. I feel like I’m living in Bizzarroland this morning. But I’m impressed with Riverdaughter’s take. I’ve mostly avoided TV for weeks now–I have no idea what the bobbleheads are talking about. On the radio, I hear Hillary’s campaign mostly talked about in the past tense; but that has been going on for so long and she hasn’t quit yet.

    If even I can see that Obama has peaked and is likely to be a laughing stock as a GE candidate, you’d think that Howard Dean and the superdelegates would be able to see it too. I guess the Committee meeting on May 31 will give us some hints as to what the keystone cops DNC honchos are thinking about Obama’s chances.

  30. I just read the NYTimes front page article on the RFK flap. It was written by Katharine Seelye , who prides herself on being ‘undeclared’ like Donna Brazille. The article is horrible in so many ways, but my favorite part is when she talks about Obama getting secret service protection earlier than the other candidates. She notes that Clinton also has it, but it is clear that Hillary does not have it because she is in any danger. Clinton gets secret service protection ‘in her capacity as former first lady”, kinda like ‘honorary secret service protection”. Does Seelye have a clue that former first ladies are given this protection because they are at risk not because it is a cute thing to do. I am sure that Obama’s life is threatened, but so is every person that puts themselves out in the political landscape. Hell, Clinton is threatened every night on MSNBC.

  31. The script is already written for May 31st. It just needs to play out. Whatever happens, count on that the DNC will do something in Obama’s favor. They always have, they always do.

  32. Honora: Hillary happens to be the one who’s had public death threats against her.

    People have stated elsewhere that she had to INCREASE her secret service protection while first lady because of the vitriolic hatred leveled against her from the right (same type that is now being leveled at her from the left).

  33. A lot of people have been asking who actually started this whole despicable incident. Well, FOX news is reporting that it came from (anyone want to take a guess)…….Drudge. Once again, the MSM and the Obama campaign is taking its marching orders from one of the nastiest smearmeisters of the extreme right. Riverdaughter, I contemplated puting this up as a post, but thought i’d see what you thought first. Here is a quote from the article and a link. BTW, love the tile of the article, “Hillary brings up Kennedy assassination, Press freaks out” 🙂

    BRANDON, SD – Another example of the power of the Drudge Report today, as a NY Post story pointing out that Clinton brought up the assassination of Robert F Kennedy in 1968 during an editorial board meeting sent reporters traveling with Clinton into a frenzy….Almost instantly, the Post story was circulated to the press corps via blackberry and Drudge, and reporters here at Clinton’s town hall meeting abandoned any pretense of listening to the event — flocking around the first Clinton flack they could find for a response to the quote.


  34. It’s truer than you think. I wouldn’t have supported her – had B0, his cohorts, the media sent me her way!

  35. From the article:

    ‘“We have to hold Michigan and Pennsylvania. McCain wins one of those states, we are in trouble. They have to hold Florida and Ohio or they are trouble,” Democratic pollster Paul Maslin said. “The truth about this race [is], this is the year that we shouldn’t lose, and we could lose.”’

    They do know that if the DNC rebuffs Michigan, there will be grave consequences in November because you can’t just punish a state and expect them to like you. Again, let them revote on Aug. 5th or honor the first contest. A revote, I think, is the fairest way to resolve the issue.

    Also, Obama’s Appalachian problem will cause major damage in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

  36. RD thanks for your post, It put me in an good mood this morning. You are wicked crazy genius! By the way, I got a survey from the DNC with a special note from Hillary. WTF! They wanted money, of course, and said it had to be returned within 72 hours. Well, in the comments part I told how they have pissed me off but good and its Hillary or nothing at all.

  37. Brilliant! Thanks Riverdaughter!

  38. RD – great post. Thanks for the smile this holiday weekend.

    Any sentient person knows Obama peaked months ago. As a Clinton supporter who voted on 2/5, I’ve only become more convinced of the righteousness of my vote as these months have passed. She’s gotten stronger and stronger and he’s only gotten weaker as time has gone on.

    I really think if she doesn’t get the nom. it will be because he outgamed her re: his February caucus strategy and she could never close the gap – esp. given the misogynistic feeding frenzy she’s been fighting.

    It’s incredibly frustrating to think that he might get the nom. based on his 1st Quarter ’08 performance alone, when she’s proven to be the best candidate overall.

  39. I opened up my email today and found this:


    I just took the next step towards owning a piece of the political process; I made a donation to Barack Obama’s presidential campaign.

    But it’s going to take more than just me and the others who’ve acted so far.

    It’s going to take a movement. It’s going to take millions of people to beat back the avalanche of dollars from Washington lobbyists and special interests, who are planning to spend more money than ever to try to own our political process and dictate our policies in Washington.

    We’re not going to play that game.

    Barack Obama is not taking any contributions from Washington lobbyists or political action committees.

    We’re going to transform the political process by bringing together hundreds of thousands of ordinary Americans in a campaign that’s owned by no one but the people.

    Will you join us by making a donation?


    …um…WTF??!! Please don’t also try to take over my e-mail as well as my Party, Kthnx!

  40. RD, you are a scream. How I needed some laughter after yesterday’s travesty (Sadly, it seems the rest of the world’s media is hellbent on “working for” Clinton as well; there is hardly any safe haven from their madness).

    Thank. You.

  41. Too bad your analysis isn’t true.

  42. I’m cleaning out my son’s room with him today…and I found a book called “Why mommy’s a Democrat”….

    I am going to write a follow-up book “How I Became an Independent because of Obama, the DNC and the Rulz”…

    cools news – I live in Virginia so i’ve been an independent all along.
    Will the DNC give me a refund???

  43. RD, in general I try to stay away from the “we cannot know anything” argument. The one question I have (I really do not know) is these MC simulations use available data: how much do these MC simulations use trends in data vs. single data points. I mentioned OH, VA, and NC earlier. I think it is fair to take those predictions with a grain of salt because after all they could just be variance. The big question I have is how well does MC simulations control for variance in polls? It seems that a simulation that attempts to take into account variance based on the polls but is this in any way just the variance of variance? Does modeling based off of trends reliably control for the variance of particular polls? I got a Bs in the 3 stat classes I had :\ I am not sure if my question is really coming through clearly (or is even a good one in the first place).

  44. Just tuned in to say hello and was bown away by the brilliant post.
    Well. Done. Riverdaughter.

    I am going to send my thanks to the DNC post haste.

  45. Phill — These are constructed entirely from General Election head-to-head matchups of Obama/McCain and Clinton/McCain polls.

    There are several similar compilations out these, using combinations of GE H2H polls, political history and judgment, demographic regressions, etc.

    There are EV compilations by Democrats, Republicans, Clinton fans, Obama fans, and worthy neutrals (press, bloggers, and just plain quant geeks).

    Projection details vary, but Obama is consistently a likely loser.

  46. The fact that he is polling like this before the GOP attack machine gets to him and the likely possibility of a split Dem base does not bode well for him for the GE if he becomes the nominee.

  47. RonK,

    You don’t even have to be a statistical genius to see that Obama is a likely loser. You just have to have a little bit of life experience, some knowlege of politics and history, and some understanding of people. I’d stake my life on it. Obama has absolutely no chance to win in November.

  48. I knew it, RD, I knew it deep in my heart. I will be donating lots to the DNC/Obama campaign from now on.

    captsfufp: “Will you join us by making a donation?” heh. The whole thing reminds me of those tv ads where you can “own a piece of history” by buying some ridiculously overpriced “official” commemorative coin set.

  49. Reading your post Riverdaughter made me have a true epiphany! By George I think you nailed it. Thank God for the reality check. Now I don’t have to go around banging my head on the wall trying to rationalize the behavior of my party. Now I can see clearly that they were brilliant all along. Boy do I love Dean and Pelosi.

  50. Not sure if this has already been posted — if so, apologies.

    Georgia Automatic Delegate Backs Hillary

    The Clinton Campaign announced the support of Georgia automatic delegate Verna Cleveland today following her election as one of two unpledged add-on delegates at a meeting of the Democratic Party of Georgia.

    “More than 17 million Americans have voted for Hillary Clinton in this primary election season and I am proud to continue to support Hillary with my delegate vote at the national convention in August in Denver,” Cleveland said.

    C’mon, Puerto Rico! Show Madam Clinton super love!!!!

  51. This is what I’ve been thinking for months. It’s brilliant. Hillary gets stronger and stronger and her negatives are dropping. She’s proving she can win when money, media and net armies are engaged against her. Without a doubt she’s the strongest Democratic politician we’ve seen in years and years.

    I do think Obama forgot that this was all for Hillary and has started to believe that people think of him as a leader…ha, ha, ha. It’s cute, but someone should gently tell him we think he is a complete *ss.

  52. Tasty lemonade, you made, riverdaughter, after last night’s lemons dropped.

    It’s such an upsidedown campaign when the supposedly “establishment” candidate is the one who’s actually on the outside of it. It’s made Hillary reach even higher, and the wifely charges have melted away. (of course, only to be replaced by more of the same and worse)

    But I’m so glad to hear that there’s a method behind their madness, and that they’re looking out for us afterall.

  53. Does anyone know if there has been a study of the current voters that examines their level of commitment to the candidate of their choice? My guess is that Hillary’s voters are strongly in favor of her and that BO voters are voting to “end this” and less out of a commitment to him, making those votes a lot softer. They are also a lot easier to sway by MSM. Hillary’s voters are more likely to stick with her in November. They are committed to her and less easily swayed by MSM and pressure tactics.

  54. I don’t think they have been, RD. Yesterday, behind the scenes over here I saw links coming in from a few new and different places. One was a place called Craig Crawford’s Trail Mix. So I left this for him, and I want you to have it too. Apparently he is inside of Washington, very bright, and pro-Hillary as well. So, pass this on to Taylor Marsh, and NQ and everyone else that comes here. You’d have to go behind the scenes at these links, and take a look around at who is involved. Gary too. Boomer, and all of you.

    What surprised me is this whole other facet of the Democratic Party that I didn’t know about when I saw it. Mainstream Media is either a party to this, don’t know about it, or are covering something up that all Dems should know.

    “I think you should look into how fundraising has been done, by who, and especially while the FEC is closed and cannot make rules about use of the internet so that all candidates have a level playing field. There is something unethical and illegal about the electioneering going on. Websites can come and go for fundraisng, can’t they? Money can be laundered? Amounts under $200 aren’t tracked according to this: http://www.opensecrets.org/

    These places will show you who is behind what and why, in a way, if you look around inside them. The associations are troubling, no?





    The Clinton camp should be aware of this. Especially the big Orange cheeto…and friends.

  55. Ahaha! So there WAS a reason behind all the hope-iness!!
    I sent the following to the publisher of the New York Times.
    Dear Mr. Sulzberger,:
    Has the New York Times gone Insane?

    ANYone who imagines that Hillary was referencing anything but the primaries going into June with her ‘my husband & RFK’ remarks has lost their moorings in reality.

    That grownups would sit around so-called seriously debating “what she might have meant” — “Could she have meant she’s waiting to see if Mr. Obama is assassinated” is simply insane & hysterical. I’m ashamed any commentator who would brook such nonsense for one second. Get a grip.

    That in 21st century America I would have to write such a comment to the greatest newspaper is embarrassing and shameful for you.

  56. Sadly, this is not a John Grisham novel (he’s a superfan/supporter of Hillary by the way). If only Howard Dean and the DNC were this clever and brilliant in real life.

  57. RD, thanks for the encouraging new poll information. Did anyone else notice that the Princeton poll questions only asked race questions? Not one question about whether or not voters would be more or less likely to vote for a woman. I haven’t looked at other Princeton polls so not sure if that’s how it always goes. Personally, I think Newsweek’s article was deliberately written with the “racial challenge” up front to bury the fact that Clinton beats McCain in the general election. No surprise. Newsweek, along with MSNBC and The Washington Post are owned by GE who recently made the nuclear power deal with Exelon.

  58. Robin, my own private theory about Obama voters: if you look at Obama, he hasn’t done much as a senator; he runs on theories and offers far less content than Clinton. I think Obama voters fill the void left by their candidate with hate. I think they need to hate Clinton supporters. I’ve struggled to understand why they can’t simply allow each Democrat to support whom s/he thinks is the best candidate. But no, so many Obama supporters are frothing from the mouth with hate and demanding that Clinton step down. They know deep inside that Obama is an empty suit which is why they rush to have him be the nominee. The hate comes in when we slow the process down (which is really not a slowing down but playing it out like it was intended).

  59. If, as is Obama’s central campaign theme, Washington experience has no value, why did he run for the senate in the first place? Why not do something more “meaningful”. When he talks about the “fierce urgency of now”, he really means it. He knows that it’s now or never for him. In 4 or 8 years, he’ll have that much Washington experience (if he is re-elected to the senate) and a senate record to have to defend. And no Obamatrons to slash and burn the opposition; they will have moved on to someone else. They are already getting tired, wanting “it” to be over, resenting Hillary from making it so hard for them. It’s just a matter of time. Hillary obviously is the best candidate and she should not quit!
    Superdelegates, don’t go wobbly on us!

  60. RiverDaughter, thank you very kindly for this refresher of how it should be. : )
    “Hillary’s voters are more likely to stick with her in November. They are committed to her and less easily swayed by MSM and pressure tactics.” Yep, my feet are now herbmedically sealed in concrete after all this misogyny – and I shall not be moved. No one but Hillary. Nope, Not ever.
    Wanting to have a lasting emporium for women, and especially for their daughters, a website is under development called theamericanwoman.org. It is not live yet, but a strong mainstay will be documenting just how women are treated today – with our Hillary a prime example. I could sure use some help on the content for this. The American Woman – to educate and inform. It will even have a 50 state strategy whereby someone living in a state will command the commentary for that state. Anyone interested?

  61. Did anyone see Charlie Rose last night? He had founder of Fed-ex on and they, of course, commented on the “nominee” question. This guest, a Republican, was pushing McCain, but they dared not dismiss Senator Clinton…something about “all three candidates”…..So much of this is hype. They aren’t even nominees yet.

  62. I am sorry I visited this site. Hillary Clinton is loathesome and the writer obliterates the facts. Obama himself made no comment, but the writer puts words in his mouth anyway.

    Politics is not hockey. Obama will be president of the United States unless a Clintonite kills him.

  63. Josh, we’re sorry you visited this site. To prevent future distress for all of us, you have been added to our spam filter. We at The Confluence know that you have a choice of blogs on which you may post your opinion. We would like you to exercise that choice.

  64. Carolyn, that sounds very interesting. When your site is ready, please let us know and we will post on it.

  65. Charles: It’s a metaphor, Work with me on this.

  66. Riverdaughter, I can’t see what I posted so anyway–check out these links again. Re: DNC and all these other people? the orange cheeto set?





  67. Olberman is Obama’s new Rev. Wright.

    Kieth, Chris, Anderson- please keep up the misogynist and sexist rantings. MSNBC and CNN (‘fine young cannibals’) keep up your media bias.

    It’s getting Hillary more support from people who get triggered by the FAKE rage, attacks and spin.

  68. kenoshaMarge ITA with your comments.

    I think of the misogynist sexist media bias like date rape. You know something bad happened, but it’s not always clear right away.

    The manipulation/spin by familiar faces, (Olberman, Matthews, Cooper, Russett, etc.) it’s harder realize the attacks in the beginning, these were once the voices of reason.

  69. It’s a sad day when the sharks (MSNBC, CNN, FOX NEWS, and Obama’s campaign) go into a frenzy, when they think there’s a lifeless object in the water, and will bite it. These pundits like to kick someone when they’re down, We as a nation mourned this disasterous moment in our lives and to take statements out of content, really is a all time low in politics, these pundits should give the Kennedy’s and Clinton’s an apology, these pundits suppose to be grown people and should act like one, when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. clarified the comment of Hillary had said. I am proud to be part of the HRClinton / RFKennedy Jr. bandwagon, I have been calling for this months ago. Go Hillary! Dream ticket HRC/RFK Jr. it’s time to kick the pundits to the curb. For trash day pickup.

  70. Riverdaughter — another great post. Wonderfully put. Couldn’t agree more — I just hope the DNC wakes up and decides to agree with you as well about their “strategy.”

    I know this Clinton voter will never vote for Obama. No how, no way, never, never, never. No threats will move me. I will not vote for Obama, period.

    The DNC, unless they want to lose, will seat all of Florida’s delegates and will seat Michigan’s, too. Period. Mrs. Clinton then picks up sixteen superdelegates immediately — right now they are not counted in her total — and probably a good deal more who right now are officially “uncommitted” in those states.

    Senator Clinton is peaking — Obama is falling. Politicians know their polls, and they should be able to gauge public opinion better than this. I find it intriguing that the hate-mongering by the Obama hacks (bloggers, whate’er you want to call ’em) mis-characterizing Senator Clinton’s remarks yesterday at the Argus Leader hasn’t exactly moved the SDs one inch.

    I hope the SDs — those for Obama and the uncommitteds — get an earful over this holiday weekend. I firmly believe Obama has at best 30% of the Democratic Party behind him — and Senator Clinton has the rest. The politicians aren’t fools — we have to hope they’ve not all been bought off, or whatever.

  71. “… primaries in western states where the DNC cleverly over allocated more delegates than is sensible.”

    And speaking of that:

    Wyoming: 1 delegate per 29,046 people

    Ohio: 1 delegate per 71,223 people

    And that includes SDs. Since Ohio has far more Democratic elected officials that automatically qualify as SDs than Wyoming, the people per pledged delegate ratio is even worse. Obscenely worse.

    By the DNC’s logic either people from Wyoming are more crucial to the cause than Ohioans or the party has a new politics strategy based on tumbleweed and prairie dogs.

  72. Just few examples of Obama’s PD winnings: (38+5+41+3 = 87)

    Obama won EXTRA PD in first 4 contests & 2 of them were actually won by Hillary….. Hmmm…..

    IOWA (12)
    NH (3)
    NV (3)
    SC (20)

    Also EXTRA PD from…..
    Virgin Island (3)
    Democrats Abroad (2)

    Also EXTRA PD from “Red state” Caucuses…..
    Idaho (12)
    Alaska (7)
    Kansas (14)
    Nebraska (8)

    Also some how (?) he won EXTRA PD from TX (3)

    On the contrary…..
    Hillary is ahead in popular vote. 1person = 1vote.
    “Go figure!!”

    And if Hillary get the nomination — it means going against ‘peoples vote’ because Obama has won EXTRA PD (??)….. WOW!!
    And how many states from above example Obama actually going to win in GE against MaCane? How many Electoral Votes are that?


  73. A bit far-fetched of a theory if you ask be, but nonetheless interesting, and a good read.

    Thanks for sharing!

    Vote Libertarian in you are interested in real change!

  74. Clinton, and only Clinton. I’ve said for months that I would never vote for a Republican. If it will hurt Obama’s chances in November, I will strongly consider voting for McCain. If I can’t bring myself to do that, I just won’t vote.

    I will NEVER vote for Barack Obama. He has ambition, I have morals.

  75. If I can’t bring myself to do that, I just won’t vote.

    Why is everything so black and white? Who says you MUST vote for Republicans or Democrats? Are you aware that there are other parties, for instance, the Libertarian Party? Just because the man on TV says otherwise, doesn’t make it so.

    The man on TV has an agenda, and he has BOUGHT you. Why do you tolerate this?

    Please be aware that the people (voters) have the power, and rights protected by the Constitution –as if that matters to the man on TV, Barack Obama, or John McCain..,

  76. riverdaughter; Am liking how you think here – however seemingly implausible. But I do have one concern: you seem to push for a joint ticket. As an investigative blogger, I am aware of most all of what is published on obama and much more.

    As such, I consider him a danger to national security, even as a Senator, much less a back-stabbing VP. VP’s have access to tons of information – obama has proven he uses his access, anywhere, for corruption and far left radical activity on behalf of his domestic & international terrorism base.

    He also has a consistent record of undermining others to promote himself and using the accomplishments of others to falsely bolster himself.

    On top of all this, if that’s weren’t enough, his wife is a nightmare- and VPs are in a PR spot which she would, no doubt, use for her own special purposes. This couple is bound to embarrass and undermine our country on many fronts. Also, their ties to big drug companies and over-inflated hospital administrations (of which mobama is one herself) stand AGAINST any real resolution of health care crisis.

    Making this a short list doesn’t even touch on NAFTA, constant meetings and feelers with radical pro-terror leaders AND his longstanding socialist philosophy, weak economic understandings and general anti-middle class enmity, etc. etc.

    Do not grasp how you can support the idea of obama as VP???!

  77. How can you include these numbers without including Florida in the Dem column???

    Florida enfranchised about 150,000 citizens who could never vote before in elections since Nov 2006, primarily poor, African American and other people of color. Most of these new voters were not registered by the primary, but will be by November…

    There are no models that exist that take that astounding number of new voters into account.

    In fact NO ONE has taken that into account, but the 80,000 new voters in Iowa in the same period of time sure made a difference in the primary there…

  78. Since I’ve been permanently banned from this site, simply because I make really good points, I changed my email address to post out here… I’m guessing temporarily because this will get pulled down as did my other posts, none of which are disrespectful, but that did make sound logical contrary points that you are not allowed to read out here…

    I am NOT trolling, but feel I’ve been mischaracterized due to the fact that my comments are continually pulling and I am being bashed without opportunity to respond back.

    If you went to my blog last week because of a post in the comments here (that I did not originally make, I was invited to this site…) and want to read the whole story, it’s here: http://www.crawfordstake.blogspot.com second story…

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