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      Stumbled across this lovely chart the other day. The core fact most people, including the folks in the “best every world” Panglossian movement (like Pinker) don’t seem to understand, is that even if they were right (questionable), the prosperity we have is based on burning down our house. “Sure is hot! Hottest it’s every been!” […]
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Clinton Cocktail Party: Free Milk and a Cow

Hey there all you newly “unaffiliated” voters out there and you Dems on the fence. Remember how it felt the other night when Senator Bob Casey said he’d heard that we were PO’d about Obama’s full on assault on the loyal Democratic base but that we’d all come around in November and vote for the Unity Pony? Well, Senator, lemme tell you a little story about free milk and a cow. We’re not stupid you know. We have something the Obama boyz want reaaaal bad. And it’s going to take more than sweet talk to get it. Oh, yeah, baby, baby, baby, we can keep this going for a long time but you’re not getting our votes until we get a weddin’ ring. You have to marry the old, uneducated, working class, sino-peruvian lesbians or you can just go home with Rosie. And here’s what we want in a pre-nuptual agreement (courtesy of FrenchDoc):

Sit Mi/FL
Now, on to the policy questions, because, as racist, bitter, old, low-info, etc… as we are, we actually care about substance:
– take privatization of SS off the table
– prosecution of the Bush crime clan
– promotion of women’s and LGBT’s rights
– progressive economic policies
– Universal health care
– repeal of no child left behind, no merit pay plan
– out of Iraq / no bombing of Pakistan
– reinstate habeas corpus
– commitment to appointing progressive judges on SCOTUS, no waffling
– commitment to repeal the partial birth abortion law, no waffling
– no telco immunity
Have I forgotten anything?

Oh yeah, stop abusing / insulting us… incredibly, it does not endear BO to us.

You can stop sending your friends over here with the “He really likes you, why don’t you give him a chance” stuff too. We’re not cheap or easy.
Anyways, we’ve found our sweetheart. She’s bona fide. She’s a keeper.

Welcome to the Clinton Cocktail Party. This is the time of the day when we relax, kick our shoes off and revel in our newfound freedom from the party. To the left of the bar is Rico, our bartender with flair. Incredibly, he’s not worn out from all these parties. Nope, he’s still going strong and really looking forward to Hillary kinking McCain’s ass in November. Tonight’s special is Sex with the Bartender. I know some of you ladies and gentlemen have been dreaming of just that for months now (but please don’t hit on him while he’s working). But you can order anything you like.

Tonight, we’re featuring a sing-a-long from the Georgia Satellites. All you gotta do is imagine the Democratic Party trying to reach into your pants to get your, um, vote. Just push them away and say, “Don’t hand me no lines and keep your hands to yourself”

Ladies and gents, we are a friendly crowd and everyone, no matter your persuasion, is welcome. And to keep the party fine and mellow, we have Florence, our lovely check room attendant who will be happy to keep your trigger words safe while you’re here. The waiters will be circulating shortly with oysters, mini truffle sandwiches and chocolate. Please drink responsibly and tip your wait staff generously.

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The Map to Denver: It’s the Map, Not the Math

Prolog

Yesterday I had the honor of talking with Senator Hillary Clinton on a conference call of Hillary Bloggers. The invitation alone was an incredible honor but, I also got “my hand up” in time for me to ask a question. Taylor Marsh recorded the entire conversation and posted a link on her site. Someone at TalkLeft suggested that listening to this recording should be required for every Hillary supporter. After listening you will come away from the conversation uplifted by the fact that Hillary Clinton is in this race to win, that she has no intention of quiting before the convention and that she is totally and deeply committed to seeing that the Florida and Michigan Delegations are seated with full voting rights.

WWTSBQ? — not this summer.

It’s the Map, not the Math

The meat of the conversation is that Hillary sees a clear path to the nomination. She said that the campaign had “acknowledgment” that Hillary is ahead in the popular vote. And (she said) she expects to be ahead on the popular vote after the last primary on June 3rd.

In addition to that since our big win in West Virginia, she has won states totaling 300 electoral votes while Barack has won states with 217 electoral votes. AND she has far fewer deep red states in her list.

The Map includes Florida and Michigan

Again and again the conversation came back to the Florida and Michigan issue. She said that it was not only ironic but actually inexplicable that the Democratic Party would have a deeper commitment to rules than Democracy.

And it’s clear this issue resonates with Hillary Bloggers. Both Armando (Big Tent Democrat) and Allegre asked about it in their questions.  Armando has been openly worried about this issue for nearly a year; hearing him express that concern directly to The Candidate was one of the highlights of the conversation.  But Allegre nearly brought the house down when she told Hillary that she’ll be bringing her children to the May 31st DNC Rules meeting.  Allegre’s deep personal commitment is felt by all of us it wonderful to hear as she gave Hillary a direct illustration of how and why she is in this campaign.

Please, visit Taylor Marsh and listen for yourself.  I know that you’ll find yourself energized and empowered — and convinced that Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic Presidential Nomination.

Senator Ted Kennedy Suffers Stroke

From the Boston Globe:

May 17, 2008 11:41 AM
Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts has suffered a stroke in Hyannis Port and is being transported by helicopter to Massachusetts General Hospital, according to a leading poltical source.

Family members have been summoned to Boston, the source said.

The Confluence wishes Senator Kennedy a speedy recovery.

Irony alert and Open Thread

Ah, Donna. Have you no shame? Democrats? Are you nuts? Is there anyone in the Democratic Party Leadership who isn’t completely tone deaf? Make THIS go away:

Dear (katiebird),

With the 2008 Democratic Convention set to commence 100 Days from today, my friends at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) are excited to announce the winner of the DCCC Match-It-By-May Contest. Congratulations to Stacy Fredericksen from Menlo Park, California. Stacy will be traveling to Denver in August to be a part of this history-making Convention.

Thousands of DCCC supporters like you took part in the Match-It-By-May Contest. The excitement and energy was outstanding. So much so, that we think a fellow DCCC supporter should join Stacy in Denver by entering the DCCC’s 100 Days Till Denver Convention Contest. Continue reading

Saturday: Welcome New Conflucians

Yesterday, we broke a new site record.  In the past four months we have had over 500,000 hits and we are really starting to pick up steam.  It just goes to show that Hillary has a lot of online support.

No matter how you found us, we would like you to feel welcome here.  We try to keep the atmosphere at The Confluence friendly and funny.  We’re not into character assassination so you won’t find rumor and innuendo here.  Of course, if a candidate does something that’s caught on tape, we will review it with our team of some of the best snarkmeisters around. But we believe that Hillary Clinton’s qualities shine without throwing mud at her opponent.  We also like to analyze how the campaign is going and we try to get inside the heads of the players.  We now have a lot of company on the web.  Please check out our blogroll for some of our favorites.

There was a real, unmet need out here in the blogosphere, but up until a few months ago, we were just lonely asteroids in a universeful of space junk.  We’re now coalescing and have a real presence.  Yesterday, we had our first blogger teleconference with Hillary.  The Big Boyz at the big orange cheeto are perplexed.  There was a diary accusing us of being paid shills who have been spouting Hillary talking points all along.  (No, I’m not providing a link.  We’re on strike from that place, remember?)  The truth is, we do it because we really believe Hillary would make the best president and we do this for free.  Many of us have had access to the Clinton Campaign Conference calls that the other members of the press attend as well. In any case, no one tells us what to write and we sure as heck don’t coordinate our messages.  In fact, I think that one of the reasons that Hillary didn’t have more of an online presence prior to NH was because her old campaign strategist may have seen us as loose cannons, which we are.  If you’re trying to keep the press on your side, you don’t need some half-assed blog jockey shooting off her mouth and causing an international incident.  So, for the most part, the Clinton campaign has been very hands off.  We don’t receive emailed talking points, we don’t have daily meetings and we don’t get paid (but if there is a ticket to an inaugural ball in our future, that would be a nice perk).

In other news:

  • In the NYTimes op/ed piece Skirting Appalachia, the aptly named Charles Blow proves why ideologues should never be campaign strategists.  Instead of adding states to a winning electoral map strategy, the Dean Democrats are more than happy to blow off the one area of the country where the only successful Democratic two-term president in the past 40 years previously won and where they had the best chances of picking up swing voters.  It’s not that they *can’t* win the Appalachian states.  It’s that they don’t *want* to.  They’d much rather chase a theory of picking up harder to win Republican states so they can once and for all write off the working class.  Incredibly, Blow puts Florida in Obama’s column.  Ok, now he really is in the realm of the angels dancing on pin heads.  There is no way Obama is going to win Florida unless the DNC waives the rules and seats all of its delegates.  That state was won by Clinton by 17 points.  Even if it revoted, she would win.  One of the reasons why Obama didn’t agree to a revote, I suspect, is that he didn’t want to lose the same state twice in a primary season.  That wouldn’t have looked too good.  So, if he wants to win it, he now has to agree to seat all delegates without condition to keep them from bolting to McCain.  In any case, if “eschewing Appalachia” is the Obama strategy in November, I hope the superdelegates keep this in mind when they consider their options.  They still have a choice. 
  • Remember it’s the MAP not the Math?  Ronkseattle pointed us to a site you might like to bookmark for future reference.  It’s called Hominid Views.  They run monte carlo simulations to predict the probability of a win for each candidate based on current polling results.  The latest probability maps for Clinton and Obama vs. McCain are up.  Obama beats McCain 44.2% to 54.3% over 10000 simulations while Clinton beats McCain 86.7% to 12.9%.   Sometimes a map tells the story better:  
  • This is your country on Obama 
  • This is your country on Clinton.

Any questions? 

One more thing: MABlue suggested that we put up the map of the primary wins thus far from the NYTimes politics page.  It’s a flash image, however, and I can’t figure out how to embed it.  So, I’m providing a link instead.  Compare it to the Hominid maps and you’ll see right away that Obama is in trouble.  Think of it this way:  Many of the primary states he did win in the Republican south are heavily African-American.  But the total AA pop in the US is about 13%.  So, with just one party voting, Obama is just barely leading in pledged delegates based on ginormous wins in these states.  In the GE, that AA vote will be further diluted by Republicans and Independents.  It’s not that he *can’t* win.  It’s just that his chances are much, much smaller than Clinton’s.  Ironically, the future of the next four years does depend on the AA vote.  With either Democrat, they would have been better off than under McCain, but unless they wake up to the reality of the map, we are much more likely to lose in the fall.