74.3% to 25.7%. THREE to ONE. That’s how badly West Virginia rejected Barack Obama, when John Edwards 26,000 votes are included.
173,000 votes, and counting. That’s the raw margin by which West Virginia rejected Barack Obama.
Continuing with our Numbers Game commentary — sometimes a number just jumps out at you. Here’s another (from RedState via MyDD):
Do you notice one number that sticks out like a sore thumb? That +37, in among the +60’s, +70’s and +80’s. Obama’s margin among African-American voters in Massachusetts.
What’s special about Massachusetts? Deval Patrick is what’s special. His campaign, his candidacy was a clone, an off-Broadway opening run of the Obama candidacy. The same David Axelrod slogans, the same Change and Hope and Yes We Can on the same short resume, the same old school ties and then … dismal results in office. They’ve heard it before, they’ve seen it before, and a lot of them have seen through it a long way back.
Voters age 18-29 gave Obama a -1 margin in the MA primary. Voters with postgrad education gave him only a +4. Voters whose families were “Getting Ahead” financially gave him only +2. Voters with incomes on $100,000 or more gave Obama a -10 margin in Massachusetts.
Obama’s core support all comes from AA’s. African-Americans. Affluent-Americans. And Adolescent-Americans. And they’re all capable of buyer’s remorse.
Filed under: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Presidential Election 2008 |
The Confluence 
Thank you for this!
I have a modest request, could you also post up the total popular votes so far? I can’t get on CNNs election page & the NYT section only has percentages.
Reason is because Hillary’s arguement to the Supers is that she won/will win the Popular vote against the one trick Unity Pony.
Thank you always to the Confluence team!
Well, aren’t you the little smarty pants kid in class? You get a gold star, because, as a disillusioned Massachusetts voter who fell for the Axelrod magic show, I agree. Massachusetts is less than happy with the empty suit sitting on Beacon Hill. He hasn’t really done anything wrong (except order new drapes, get a new car and leave the state (to pen a multi million dollar book deal) when a critical vote was being made on his pet project- casinos) he just hasn’t *done* anything.
Too bad we can’t get the message out to the rest of the nation. The Obamanation that is.
!! RonK — that’s the ticket! A slogan that wraps it up in a pretty package.
Thank you!
I’ve seen fellow Mass folks on this thread and elsewhere talk about how disappointing Gov. Patrick has been, and I always feel like we’re shouting into the wind. I’m glad to see this post. Couple thoughts/questions:
a) Patrick promised a new kind of politics, which he claimed did not exist on Beacon Hill (where our State House is). He’s right about the old politics – Sal DeMasi, the Speaker of the House and the boss around these parts, is a LONG-TIME pol from Boston’s Italian-American/immigrant North End, and he became Patrick’s Public Enemy #1. Personally, I was glad, because I LOATHE Patrick’s casino deal (how is that part of progressive economic solutions??) and DeMasi more or less blocked it. Of course, Patrick may be vindicated as DeMasi may be brought up on ethics charges in the very near future. D’oh!!
The larger point I take from Patrick’s experience is that just because you want to overcome the old politics doesn’t mean you can do it in 1 fell swoop. This just seems like complete naivete. We need incremental but consistent change, and he needed to shore up more allies to really launch a strong fight v. DeMasi et al. Obama seems like he’s working on really consolidating the (half of) the Party that supports him, but in the process of squeezing out the rest of us who don’t, and sweeping out the *old* progressive infrastructure in the process, he’s angering A LOT of people, that could end up blocking him just the way Democrat DeMasi has done to Democrat Patrick. (We really don’t have an opposition party here.)
Patrick did close some business tax loopholes, so that’s cool, but this casino deal became his signature plan, and thanks but no thanks. I mean, Flip-flopper Corp. Raider GOP Romney brought universal healthcare to the state. UHC v. casinos. What a comparison.
b) Where’s NY in the non-south list???
Patrick’s casino “jobs program” made it abundantly clear his “new politics” was to bring the Chicago machine to Massachusetts.
Patrick, much like I expect Obama, didn’t take the time to build relationships with those he needed to work with. Obama hasn’t taken the time to reach out to all the AAs, us included, and thinks he will win this nomination w/out us. Ain’t gonna ‘appen.
Ronk, nice work on the AA bumper sticker.
Yes they balme Kennedy for Patrick and should.
Interesting stats.
And I think Patrick has way more going for him than Obama, which apparently isn’t saying much. Patrick is the better speaker, frankly, which may explain why Obama needed to “borrow” his speeches.
Rezkowatch has some interesting things today. One is a video of a recent interview with Black Panther Leader and why he thinks Obama is “the one”. http://rezkowatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/rezkowatch-factchecker-new-black.html
He also equates Black Liberation Theology with Nation of Islam Theology.
Redstar Where’s NY in the non-south list???
Same place IL is 🙂
I’ll be honest … when I got to ‘sore thumb,’ I thought, yes, MA has the smallest Black voter share. The aggregate view from MA is fine, but I wouldn’t make mountains from exit poll figures that probably touched less than 100 ppl.
Unfortunately, SC was the first state with non-negligible numbers of African Americans to hold a primary. The numbers I’d really like to see are before-and-after the Obama campaign invented the Racist Clintons theme. We have poll numbers as a decent surrogate, and they’re striking. This is, by far, the most successful smear in political history.
Yes, Patrick is 10 times the man Obama is, but not very effective as Governor. Further, the schtick about “new politics” is false, unless you consider the Chicago machine new.
Deval book-deal Patrick.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/articles/2008/03/28/patrick_chased_book_deal_during_vote/
Deval is a loser! We all bought into that “yes we can” speech having survived 4 years of Mitt Romney who spent most of his time out of state campaigning for president.
Deval is another out of nowhere Axelrod invention. Probably just a dress rehearsal for Obama. From the minute Deval took office he quickly donned his elitist robes and the media was off to the races. What he did not count on was the Boston political machine. DeMasi who succeeded Finneran who succeeded Bolger. These are the “big boys”. You learn to play ball with them and you might get things done. Otherwise, not so much.
Add to that the fact that Deval has pretty much shown he has no real interest in MA and this may be just a warm up to the Obama presidency. Entitled is the word for these guys.
Most of us here in MA have had buyer’s remorse since Deval was sworn in. We can almost predict the same with an Obama presidency.
MA politics and politicians are pretty unique. You need to know before leaping into the ring what you are going to be up against. They often feed on their own. Deval never anticipated this. He thought “hope” and “change” would be enough until he got into the ring. Obama may be in for the same rude awakening.
Redstar – so right – he “needed to shore up more alliances…” Deval has not seemed to grasp that governing is different than running a grass-roots campaign. There are actual votes that are made on your desired programs by other pols who also need to get elected. As a (former) Deval Patrick supporter I cannot begin to tell you how many emails I received once he was sworn in. But – did he make much outreach to the legislature? It sure doesn’t look like it.
Good ideas do not turn into valued programs simply by “hoping” they will. Would Obama make the same mistakes and leave us all regretting he was chosen over Hillary?
RichinPA — you’ll see the IA numbers soon as it’s something I’ve been working on. I will tell you that my sense is that BO did very well for himself w/ IA’s Black vote.
My impression is that “Clintons are racist!” did more to fortify the white liberal angst vote. I saw Clinton bumper stickers in my neighborhood exchanged for BO’s at the time. The timing of the first accusations was to defend against Black defection in SC after HRC’s NH win. His viability was still a sticking point in the minds of some Black voters.
@ hlr, on May 14th, 2008 at 12:09 pm:
I don’t really follow you…MA has a higher percentage of black residents than WI, CA, and AZ in that “non-south” list above.
What’s your point exactly?
We are also the only state in that list with an African-American governor.
Again, where’s NY?
This You Tube video was posted on No Quarter today, and it is hilarious.
Two “hillbillies” are arguing over the outcome of the Democratic race. One of them finally compares it to a sinking ship. Obama is in the lifeboat with all the rats who have jumped ship, while Hillary’s still up on the Lido deck playing shuffleboard.
And where is Arkansas?
redstar What’s your point exactly?
Actually, the Black population in CA per capita is higher than MA. MA is higher than AZ. So the next question is what percentage of the electorate in each state was Black?
I just went to look it up. According to the exit polls, the share in MA is the same as in AZ, and 1% higher than CA. In all cases, it’s low, 7%-8%.
What this means is that the actual nr of Black voters who filled out a survey in these three states is small — so fine, I’ll extend my comment to include AZ and CA as unreliable.
Exit polls are a stab in the dark, at best. Subsamples of an exit poll, even more so.
Let me give you an example where we can check the work of exit pollsters. Throughout the primary season, the pundits cited the 2004 SC exit poll of 48% Black voters in the electorate.
SC is a state where voters register by race. The actual Black voter share was much higher in 2004 — somewhere around 56% (don’t remember the exact nr now). So the estimate was way off — greater than what you’d expect from random variation.
Illinois and NY are excluded because they are ‘home states.’ — the results are biased.
plural — Arkansas is a ‘home state,’ and thus biased.
hlr — True, the MA AA sample is small … but there I’d appeal to the consistency of result with his other core segments – youth, high-income, high-ed.
NY margin was +24 … Clinton’s home state, and with Charlie Rangel pulling out all the stops. (IL likewise probably should have been pulled, or at least asterisk’d).
ronk: but there I’d appeal to the consistency of result with his other core segments – youth, high-income, high-ed.
I can agree w/ the aggregate impression, yes, but am not convinced that the consortium gave us a good figure on how the Black vote broke in MA. They have done such a poor job all season.
Now I will generalize — Black voters tend to be somewhat protective of their ‘historic firsts’ — so, my first instincts would be that Black voters in MA would cut Patrick a bit more slack than the general electorate — but would be convinced of otherwise if someone did a specific poll on the topic.
Ok, everyone, get organized to convince hlr of the truthiness of the data above. Folks who actually live in MA (me!), how do I know your accounts of your experiences of Gov. Patrick are at all reliable??
Hi Pat! Yep, I voted for Deval too. I’m not gonna be “bamboozled” by another Axelrod clone. Why do we keep electing these carpetbaggers as governor of MA?
Ah, the politics of “hope,” “unity” and “change”:
http://www.boston.com/news/local/articles/2008/05/14/death_threats_targeted_dimasi/
“Death threats targeted DiMasi
Guard provided amid casino fight”
Check out the pro- and con- coalitions below:
“The casino bill dominated the debate on Beacon Hill for several months and set off passion on both sides. A coalition of liberals, social conservatives, civic groups, and religious organizations argued strongly against legalized gambling. Casino advocates, including labor unions and racetrack and casino operators and developers, accused DiMasi and the House leadership of turning their backs on them.
Patrick had touted the casino plan as an economic development project that would generate thousands of union jobs.”
Also notable — about 10% of the voters who rejected Obama also rejected Hillary.
I voted for Patrick. The Dems here longed for a Dem governor and Patirck played that. After Weld, Cellucci, Swift, and Romney we wanted a Dem governor. And Patrick played that.
He is a corporatist thru and thru. Last year, Patrick’s first year in office, I had the two largest increases in insurance in my 64 years. Home owner’s went up 27 % and though not regulated by the state, there was much the state could have done to mitigate the increase. And long term care, completely regulated by the state, went up 30 %. The insurance companies went in looking for 30 % (they were used to the republicans beating them back ) but Nonnie Burns (a Patrick appointee) said sure, but make it over two years so it wont be so bad!
Long term care insurance is a relatively new product, and there hasn’t been much pay out on it, but the insurance companies saw their opportunity to prepare for the boomers….20 years down the road, and they had a friend in Patrick. What’s grating about it is that long term care insurance takes the burden off of state resources in paying for nursing care for the elderly disabled. The republicans knew this, and there was not one increase in the prior 8 years of republican rule in MA. But Patrick took care of his friends in the insurance industry. Hate to think about what is coming with our new auto managed competition insurance!
Neptuna,
Not sure someone answered you, but I’ve been using this to calculate/project the Pop vote:
Real Clear Politics, Horse Race Blog
RonK,
Thanks for the research that went into this post!
The other thing about Massachusetts is that we had a black US Senator thirty years ago, and a very popular guy. I remember about agonizing about whether I should vote for him…….because he was a Republican, with nothing to do with his race. In fact, I came to the conclusion that he was good for the state (he was a liberal Republican – remember them?) and so I voted for him, one of the two times in my life I voted Republican. This may be the third time I vote R His name was Ed Brooke (of Barbara Wawa fame!)..
Andre – ugh. That’s right. I forgot completely that under Patrick our car insurance has now been dereg’ed.
Yea, thinking on it, that 37 % may be totally due to Ed Brooke. For the life of me, I cannot see what people see in Obama. Yea, he’s young and slim and most of the time energetic, but for POTUS??????? Being the first black anything really isn’t such a big deal in Massachusetts. And the big deal about Deval Partrick being black might be just a figment of the media’s imagination. More to our (mistaken) liking was the fact that he was an obviously potable Democrat and we were desperate!
And of course, we have to remember that Bill Clinton made Patrick potable by putting him in charge of the Civil Rights Division of the DOJ. His resume was sparse but he was a potable Dem. And he really paid Bill back, huh?
Hell, Ron, why don’t you just go all the way and say it like this?
Don’t let the fact that that’s a quote from Rush Limbaugh stop you.