Nuclear nightmare scenario: Guam determines nominee

It could happen.

The votes were close in IN and not so close in NC. But we all know why this is. Indiana was an open primary. We don’t yet know how many crossover votes there were to make havoc. Plus, Obama *should* have had a major geographical advantage and Chicago media market spillover. It *should* have been a blow out for him in Indiana as well. It doesn’t look like his urban-youth-DINK-Republican crossover vote was enough though. Most of those Republican votes will not be staying with us for the general, of course. He won urban areas where African-American votes are highest. He did the same in NC where he won the middle of the state where 2/3 of the population lives. And 35% of the state is African-American.

I think what we’re seeing here is a real racial divide. It was engineered, deliberately, by Obama’s campaign in order to separate African Americans from the Clintons. It has worked spectacularly well. Obama consistently wins urban and southern AA voters, by lopsided margins. It didn’t have to be this way. There was no reason for the African-American community to spurn Clinton. But in this America, in 2008, color is everything. It seems like the civil rights movement of the 60’s was just a dream. As long as you are the right color, you’re golden. Color masks a multitude of deficiencies- experience, knowledge base, earned coalitions, even interest. Obama has not reached out to the working class, to women, to the elderly, the loyal base of the Democratic party. But he has managed to exacerbate the fault line in the party when it comes to race. There’s no doubt about that now.

Winning NC does not make me like him more nor do I have an elevated desire to vote for him. Let me dispel the notion that he and his supporters have about me voting for him in the fall: unless Florida and Michigan are seated and have an impact on the nomination, I will not consider the nomination legitimate. That doesn’t mean I’ll vote for John McCain. It just means that I don’t know what I’ll do when I stand in front of that button. And don’t hang this on Hillary. If it comes to that, I’m sure she would do her best to GOTV. It has nothing to do with her. It has to do with how deeply offended I am by how Obama has split my party on racial lines and pitted race against their regular party members, as if there was a real split there to begin with. As if I were the enemy. He has pitted Dem against Dem. I am insulted that Howard Dean and Donna Brazile have put their thumbs on the scales for Obama instead of encouraging him to agree to revotes in FL and MI. The thought of voting for him under these circumstances fills me with revulsion. And there’s no amount of cheerleading that Hillary can do to make me change my mind. It’s not her. It’s him.

A win is a win and we will gladly take it and whip his butt in WV and KY and maybe even Oregon. But don’t expect me to support the guy who won with Guam at the expense of Florida and Michigan. I don’t care how tropical it is.

Indiana and North Carolina Primary Cocktail Party

What the heck, Champagne for everyone, Rico. We’re going to have fun regardless.

The polls have closed in Indiana. That was fast. Wolf Blitzer is reporting that with about 1% of the vote in, Hillary leads Obama 64% to 36%. As I understand it, Indiana processes its ballots very quickly so we should know fairly soon what the score is.

I read on some blog today (they did give us bathroom breaks) that Obama had a meeting with big money contributors. Maybe that’s what that single closed door meeting in NC was all about yesterday. I’ve been expecting this for awhile. Obama has to have a really high burn rate. He is spending money like a sailor on ads in a lot of states and the firm he hired to do them gets paid by the ad, hence the incentive to do even more. When NC commenters started saying there didn’t seem to be many Obama lawn signs, that suggested to me that they are starting to feel the pinch. Don’t be surprised if his money starts to dry up if he doesn’t win NC by a healthy spread.

Anywho, sportsfans, let’s party!

Senator “Too Busy Campaigning” is looking for a cheap date

I’ve noticed that Hillary’s ideas are often derided as “stupid” by the OFB. In fact, my earliest memory of sitting up and noticing her campaign was while reading something at the Washington Monthly and a commenter condemned her stupidity for suggesting a freeze on adjustable-rate mortgages & foreclosure moratorium. This was back in December when a lot of people were still thinking that the housing bubble might be popping but, we’d probably have a “soft landing”. We don’t hear THAT talk anymore.

But, apparently her ideas are still stupid. This time it’s the Gas Tax Holiday. Which everyone from millionaire reporters to creative Obama Blogger Boyz knows will solve exactly nothing. The Gas Tax Holiday will do nothing for global warming or our dependence on foreign oil, will delay needed highway repairs and will only save an average of $30.00.

hmmmm. Oh Really?

There’s plenty of room in the foxhole Tardis . . .

Where I’ve got a little prayer

Tuesday: In my mind I’m going to Carolina

Whoever keeps scheduling these training classes on primary days is a sadist. I’ll try to check in during breaks but I’m going to have to leave it to others to make posts for much of the day. You’re probably bored with me anyway and Kbird, BB, ronk and gary are my favorite reads these days.

So, Hillary should win Indiana. Of that we are fairly certain. It would be nice to win by 10 but we will be happy with winning. Carolina though is still anyone’s guess. Obama is likely to win it but by how much is just speculation at this point. Jerome Armstrong has been pretty good at predicting these things and he says Obama by 6. Or 12. *sigh*

Just keep sending good thots to Hillary. It’s going to be a good day for her.

In other news:

• Obama tries to woo white working class voters by taking his jacket off and loosening his tie. This is to dispel the notion that he and Michelle are elitist intellectuals. Well, I would NEVER call Obama an intellectual. He’s smart, sure, but hardly an egghead. Hey, I’ve got an idea! Why doesn’t he stop calling them bitter and undignified? Or better yet, he could stop acting like an extra $30/month is pocket change. Or not call them cheap dates.
• Gas tax? In Obama is wrong about the gas tax, George Frost at Salon says Obama was for it before he was against it. Obama voted to lower the gas tax in Illinois in 2000 and guess what? Some of that savings went into consumers’ pockets. Fancy that!
• Joan Walsh talks about Michael Wolff’s sex life and projection. Apparently, Mr. Wolff thinks that we stupid old women should give up our sex lives like adults give up getting lots of gifts for Christmas. It’s just part of getting old for women. Men on the other hand, spend their middle age figuring out how they can have affairs with younger women and get away with it. And this is an explanation for what in this political season? That middle aged men can’t identify with any of the candidates and Obama is too young? Wha? Huh? How come Obama is the same age as me but he’s young and I’m old? Joan is right. The endless primary season is making people progressively sillier.

OK, Conflucians, here’s a fun little exercise. We know that Hillary will have a good day today so how will the media sing her death knell? Last night, Hardball raised expectations for her to stratospheric heights. If she doesn’t trounce him by 35 points in both states, she’s a loser. For some reason, they’ve also got it into their pinheads that she’s looking for a VP position if she doesn’t win North Carolina. That’s some mind reading because, to *me*, that’s the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard. Why would tbe more qualified person want to take second place to a guy she’s beaten in the primaries? Oh, I forgot. Guam was an Obama win so it counts. Florida and Michigan were Clinton wins so they don’t. All’s right with the world.

So, predict the spin tonight. Will it be, “Now that she’s won Indiana and held Obama to a single digit win in North Carolina, her campaign must be trying to figure out how to concede gracefully. She can’t keep winning like this and actually expect the superdelegates to make her the nominee. Howard, what’s your take on this? Will she sweep the remaining primaries and THEN concede or will it be sooner than that?”