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The Boyz’ New Math and a whole new Magic Number

I agree with Turkana who says It’s Called Democracy:

It was inevitable. More than a million and a quarter people turned out yesterday to vote for Hillary Clinton, she won another large swing state by more than two hundred thousand votes, and those champions of democracy in the shrillosphere are again today begging someone to pull the plug on this race. Stop her before she wins again!

As Big Tent Democrat continues to try to get people to understand, demography is everything, in this race. After Clinton’s disastrous, and politically incompetent, final few weeks of February, she has been doing very well. She has been winning large states by mostly solid margins. She has been chipping away at Barack Obama’s popular vote lead. While Obama supporters continue to tout The Math, they continue to ignore the fact that Obama cannot win the nomination on pledged delegates. Once again, repeat after me: the superdelegates will decide the nomination. Obama cannot win without them. Clinton cannot win without them.

Well things aren’t that obvious to Booman — he’s got a whole New Math all his own which he explains in a comment in this Open Thread:

I ran two sets of numbers through Slate’s delegate calculator.

In one set, I gave my best estimates on what will happen in the upcoming states based on the polls, but I erred on the side of caution, giving Clinton generous margins.

(snip)

Then I flipped Indiana for Clinton and gave Clinton five additional percentage points in every contest (except Indiana). The difference was a mere 18 delegates.

So, in once case Obama wound up with 1,699 delegates and in the other 1,681. The 50% mark is 1,627. (bold by me)

I believe that this election isn’t going to be decided by spreadsheet (I mean honestly, do calculations like this work out even when you’re doing a budget? What are the odds it works with an election?) making that comment almost completely pointless. But the interesting thing — the bizarre thing — about it is that last sentence. Booman says that the Magic Number is 1627.

This magic number 1627 . . . ?

It turns out some of the Boyz think that the Super Delegates HAVE to go with Obama if he wins 1/2 of the Pledged delegates. Where did we get this Rule? Let’s see — it doesn’t have anything to do with the fact that Obama’s peaked does it?

Stubbornly, many super delegates don’t believe that The Math counts as one of the critical issues facing this country. The Super Delegates that haven’t already decided are waiting for something else. And it’s not just theoretical-delegate-counts. Actual delegates matter, but we’re far enough along that if The Math was going to decide it — well, it would be decided by now.

Wouldn’t it?

100 Responses

  1. If we don’t stop her soon, she might win the whole thing!

    Gloom, despair and agony on me! Deep, dark depression, excessive misery.

    /snark

  2. Hey, this is the New Politics. Henceforth, the game will be played with spreadsheets, wild-ass hypotheses (Obama will bring Montana into play!), and marketing schticks.

  3. myiq2xu, the Voters, The Voters!! They’re coming: Lock the Doors!!! (and is this even snark at this point?)

    Ann, 🙂 The New Math of The New Politics….

  4. OT: Riverdaughter, what’s the smilie face in the right margin for?

  5. Since he already won, why is Barry still running?

    The OFB have been proclaiming quite loudly, even stridently, that Obama has already locked up the Democratic nomination and should now turn his efforts to defeating Senator McCain.

    I think that is an excellent idea!

    Barack Obama should immediately cease all campaigning, including fundraising for the primary, stop all advertising (television, radio and direct mail) and remove his name from the remaining primary ballots.

    He has already stopped debating.

  6. OK, guys, bear with me. I need a little help w/ a concept and I’m a “trees” person, not a “forest” person. Explain to me why Obama (if he’s our nominee) can’t carry the big states that Hillary is now winning like OH, PA, CA? All answers welcome. 🙂

  7. See Gail Collins’ column in today’s NYT, [Hillary’s Smackdown: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/24/opinion/24collins.html?_r=1&oref=login%5D

    The clamor for Hillary Clinton to drop out of the presidential race has reached new levels of intensity since the Pennsylvania primary. Of all the things Hillary has done, Obama supporters find her tendency to win large elections in swing states as by far the most irritating. If she beats him in Indiana, they’ll be surrounding her house with torches.

    Yeah, that winning primaries thing, it is soooo irritating. How can you be the Second Coming when someone keeps beating you?

  8. A little reminder:

    A vote is counted for a candidate when a ballot has been cast with the candidate’s name and has been certified by a legal authority, usually the secretary of State.

    There have been more than 1.5 mil ballots cast and certified for Hillary Clinton. Why is it “sleazy”, “horrible”, “terrible”, when Hillary Clinton states something that is factual?

    *The DNC is threatening to seat the delegates, that is different procedure that counting votes.

    Clear enough?

  9. Actually, as long as we’re adding up numbers, why don’t we throw in Florida and Michigan?

  10. *Must-must-must-see of the day!

    James Carville takes Bill Richardson to School:

    Part 1
    Prart 2
    Part 3

    Yaowza! I haven’t seen such beatings since Mel Gibson got hold of Jesus in The Passion of the Christ.

    *Conflucians, I am warning you. There will be a quiz, administered by none other than moi.

    Here is the 1st question: We all know Bill Richardson was a terrible candidate, but was he rally this dumb? Always?

  11. Ah, well see, DCDemocrat — that would mean ADDING to Obama’s challenge. And that goes against RULZ of the New Math…..

  12. How is it that they can discover numbers representing the “popular vote” in caucus states–where there was no primary or actual popular vote; but they cannot discover numbers representing popular votes in states where there are actual primaries, with popular votes officially tabulated and recorded with the Secretary of State?

    Their math is fuzzy on that score.

    States that only had a caucus shouldn’t get to record both a delegate count and a popular vote count. Is Booman counting caucus states as popular votes?

    Florida has a popular vote–officially recorded with the Secretary of State. They don’t want to count that popular vote, because, as they shriek, “de rulz! de rulz!”

    Well de rulz don’t say that those popular votes are illegitimate; those popular votes are recorded with the Secretary of State. Thus, they can and should be counted in the popular vote count, whether or not those delegates enter in to Slate’s calculations.

    And, for them to tout Slate–Mickey Kaus’ home turf–so vociferously is a constant source of amusement to me anyway. Prior to this silly season, not one of them would be caught dead admitting to reading it, not even Booman.

  13. I went through the DNC rule book and I didn’t see anything about stripping a state of its vote count, just a delegate penalty.

    Two states held official, state-sponsored primaries, people voted (in record numbers in Florida) and the votes were tallied and officially certified.

    The only reason Obama got no votes in Michigan is because he chose to take his name off the ballot.

    Count the damn votes!

  14. bmc and I agree.

    The counter-argument from the OFB is that counting the votes isn’t “fair.”

    Sorry boiz, but it’s the rulz that matter, right?

  15. The talking heads this morning were effectively conceding Florida’s popular votes, but balking at counting Michigan because Obama gets none at all under HRC’s formulation. “You can’t assume Obama would have gotten zero votes.” So how do they remedy this? “Let’s give Obama all the uncommitted votes.” If you do that, of course, Obama is still ahead of Clinton. “So it doesn’t make any difference,” the talking heads triumphantly conclude, “Clinton is behind no matter what.”

    How come you can assume that Obama got all the uncommitted votes, but can’t assume he got zero? Edwards was still in the race, and surely he would have gotten a nice slice of the Michigan electorate. If you give him that slice, would Obama still be ahead? I don’t think so.

  16. katiebird: As long as I understand the rules, I can make the math work, but see, no one really wants to define the rule, because that might make it hard for Obama to wrest the nomination from Ordinary Good Sense.

  17. If Michigan and Florida get seated–and there is certainly a reasonable chance that they will–the number needed to win a majority of delegates goes up appreciably. The 2025 is a number which assumes that FL and MI don’t count. If Hillary can somehow win a fight to get both those delegations seated (and there is an article which indicates that her forces outmaneuvered his at the Michigan convention, thus cutting his potential delegates below the full amount of “uncommitted” votes), she might pick up 85 or so more delegates than he does. That makes the pledged delegate margin very small. In fact, if she does pick up 18 more delegates than Obama in the rest of the primaries, her deficit is down to around 40. With her edge of around 25 in SD’s she’s down only 15, or so.

    She’ll have the popular vote edge, counting FL. How can FL not be reasonably counted, unless one argues that the 1.4 million voters were too stupid to know what they were doing when they punched their ballots? She’ll have polls showing that she runs better against McCain,. How hard is it then to imagine that small remaining majority of SD’s go to her and give her the nomination? And…I realize that this is a longshot, but what a scenario it would be; what if this nomination fight went to the convention and more than one ballot? Gee, I remember reading about such things in my books. I think it was called democracy in action.

  18. Katiebird,

    When Booman say “flip Indiana for Hillary and give her 5 more points,” what does he mean? It sounds like he expects Barack to win Indiana. There is no way that is going to happen, trust me.

  19. If Michigan and Florida get seated–and there is certainly a reasonable chance that they will–the number needed to win a majority of delegates goes up appreciably. The 2025 is a number which assumes that FL and MI don’t count. If Hillary can somehow win a fight to get both those delegations seated (and there is an article which indicates that her forces outmaneuvered his at the Michigan convention, thus cutting his potential delegates below the full amount of “uncommitted” votes), she might pick up 85 or so more delegates than he does. That makes the pledged delegate margin very small. In fact, if she does pick up 18 more delegates than Obama in the rest of the primaries, her deficit is down to around 40. With her edge of around 25 in SD’s she’s down only 15, or so.

    She’ll have the popular vote edge, counting FL. How can FL not be reasonably counted, unless one argues that the 1.4 million voters were too stupid to know what they were doing when they punched their ballots? She’ll have polls showing that she runs better against McCain,. How hard is it then to imagine that small remaining majority of SD’s go to her and give her the nomination? And…I realize that this is a longshot, but what a scenario it would be; what if this nomination fight went to the convention and more than one ballot? Gee, I remember reading about such things in my books. I think it was called democracy in action.

  20. The problem is that they do not think that any of Hillary’s votes should count at all, because so many of them are from women. Remember when Ann Coulter noted that if women did not have the right to vote, the Republicans would always win. It is now evident that Democratic power brokers feel the same way. It is fine to take our money, let us labor in the campaign offices, but once we get it in our head that a woman can actually be president , we have gone to far. It’s getting late, it is time for the ladies to go the parlor and chat about the children–that way the men can decide who the nominee is

  21. Elixir,

    I don’t think anyone has claimed that Obama won’t carry CA. As for OH and PA, he will lose them because of the demographics. The traditional base of the party–except for AA’s–doesn’t like him. He doesn’t do well with older people, women, union workers, and working class Reagan Democrats. He will carry states where there are enough AA’s in the big populations centers, but he can’t break 40% of the white vote period. A lot McCain. I don’t even think Obama can carry MA. He may be able to carry some western states that Hillary can’t, but they won’t add up to as many electoral votes as OH and PA. Furthermore, Obama will lose FLA to McCain, and Hillary can win there. That’s a lot of electoral votes.

    This could end up like McGovern or Dukakis. Even if it weren’t that bad, I’d expect a landslide like Reagan in 1980. Remember, Reagan actually carried MA–hard though it was for me to believe at the time.

  22. Sorry, I meant to say, a lot of people who would vote for Hillary in those states will go for McCain against Obama.

  23. bmc, at the WA caucuses, there were counts in the caucuses. Had to be since that’s how people figured out how many delegates to award the candidates.

    The Sec. of State here has the numbers, but I don’t think they’ve been released officialy. Suffice though that it is possible to get a close number estimating backwards from the number of delegates (except for that 15% thing).

    The pirmary awarded no delegates.

    What a dumb system.

  24. Hillary has a new proposal today. Seat half of MI delegates, but give supers their full delegate. Andrew Sullivan posted something about Hill etting a bunch of the uncommitteds yesterday in MI. Sorry, I don’t have the links.

  25. I’m counting the WA primary where more people voted compared to the caucus (700,000 vs. 250,000). The WA caucus decides the delegate allocation and the primaries decide the popular vote allocation in WA.

  26. bostonboomer : I am a Californian, and Obama may not win here.

    Despite our reputation of being very liberal, we are really a “purple” state. Don’t forget, Bush I won here in 1988, and we except for one brief period we have had a GOP governor since 1982.

    The Democrats have been winning lately thanks to Governor Pete Wilson’s anti-immigrant strategies of the nineties, which put the Latino vote on our side.

    But Barry doesn’t do well among Latinos, McCain does, and Latinos are conservative on many issues.

  27. BB, Yes — he started by putting IN in BO’s column see the comment at 3:28pm (in reply to Alice) He lists all the calculations but it was so dull, I snipped it….

    MABlue — Thanks for posting those links I’ll view them when I get home from work.

    Honoria, “The problem is that they do not think that any of Hillary’s votes should count at all” — nodding.

    BB — I have such a bad feeling about BO’s chances in the GE that I can’t open my mouth on the subject. He’s already impatient and tired. What’s he going to be like in 6 months?

    Melanie, I’ll see if I can find something. That’s a big concession. I wonder what BO will say?

  28. Katiebird–

    Booman drank the kool-ade a long time ago. He’s completely gonzo. In the latest SUSA poll of Indiana, Hillary led by double digits. That was before Obama “bitter” remarks about “clinging” to guns and god and being bigoted. Those remarks cause a lot of anger in Indiana. They are now mad at Obama because he refuses to debate. Keep in mind that the AA population in Indiana is low–I think it’s about 13%. Furthermore all of the leading Indiana Dems support Hillary, except for Lee Hamilton, who doesn’t live in IN anymore anyway. And many local officials support Hillary too.

  29. Correction: the AA population in IN is less than 9%.

  30. Melanie @ 1:34 p.m. and KatieBird,

    I think this is the link to the article/opinion you reference.

    http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080424/OPINION01/804240315/1008

  31. BB, I know about booman. I had to stop visiting that site a long time ago. I feel like I lost more friends from that site than dKos, actually.

    But, if people THINK BO’s going to win IN — then the loss will be even more powerful (if it happens) won’t it?

  32. Melanie @ 1:34 p.m. and KatieBird,

    Here’s the link to the article you referenced.

    http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080424/OPINION01/804240315/1008

  33. BB,

    Thanks for the explanation, I guess I was thinking the same but was momentarily blinded by the hue and cry from the other side. Sounds like Barry’s up a creek w/out a paddle. I wonder why the superds aren’t switching to Hillary knowing that she’s the only democratic candidate that can actually win in November. Odd, isn’t it? I wonder it there’s more going on.

  34. I’ve been trying to post this link to the article about MI and Clinton’s accrual of superdelegates.

    http://tiny.cc/clintonssecretweaponMI

  35. I’m a mathematician and this new “Math” doesn’t make any sense. It’s just number manipulation. I don’t even see an epsilon, and we know you should leave room for error in these things. *sheesh*

  36. MA Blue,

    I watched the Carville v Richardson links and I have to disagree. I thought Carville was much to easy on Richardson and missed landing some easy punches on the guy. Why didn’t he argue that Hillary has won the states that matter? Why didn’t he argue how negative Obama has been?

    I think Carville missed an opportunity here.

  37. Lost Clown, “number manipulation” !! That’s the term I was missing. Thanks. My dad is a mathematician too and I probably should be talking more to him about this.

    I think even The Math is numbers manipulation. But I’m not a mathematician, so I could be wrong.

  38. the more she wins, the more her chances diminish!

    the more she wins, the more she needs to drop out!

    (how does this make any sense? to the MSM, Stewart and Colbert shows – STFU)

  39. I think Clinton’s got a good chance in IN, but don’t forget that northwestern IN is in the Chicago media market. Obama will be well known there, and it will be hard for Clinton to compete with Obama on buying airtime in that market. So Obama is starting with an advantage there, I think.

    Which is another reason to GIVE if you haven’t already this week, or if you can afford a little more. Or get a friend to give. Give our girl the resources to fight!

  40. litigatormom,

    Obama will probably win up around the CHI area, but that is only a small part of Indiana. I grew up there and my parents still live there. Most of Indiana is rural and working class, and they are suffering economically. Indiana is a very long state north to south. Southern Indiana is like Kentucky, where Hillary is doing well, and much of the state is more like Ohio than Illinois. The big difference between IN and OH is that IN has no really big cities and is even more rural.

  41. This reminds me of the Chris Rock joke about the failure of public education, which goes something like, “There are kids out there who when I ask them, ‘What’s 4 plus 4?’ will say, ’44.’ That ain’t right! That ain’t right!

    If the sheer batshittery doesn’t convince people that these fanboys’ “support” of Obama is nothing more than anti-Clinton hatred, nothing will. Hillary Hate is the fuel of the Obama phenomenon; without it, he’s a goner. Even with it at full throttle, he still can’t beat her where it counts (big GE states, battlegrounds). That is how utterly unelectable he is: at his best, he loses.

  42. Davidson, I’m clutching my sides! That’s hilarious!

    But your punchline? Totally true.

  43. MABlue-

    Thanks for the links to Larry King. I have to ask, was Bill Richardson always this whiney? Did we really send this guy to confront dictators? We sent him to North Korea?

    Oh, and Richardson mispronounced Oregon, and we hate that out here. (It’s OreGUN, not OreGONE)

  44. I agree that the SDs won’t decide based on a spreadsheet, but I do think they will decide on the basis of race.

    Obama’s been getting 90% of the AA vote. Although I believe it will be electoral suicide to run Obama (not because an AA can’t win the Presidency but because Obama can’t win it against McCain) , it would be political (Democratic) suicide for a group of mainly white, male SDs to steal (which is how it would be characterized by the media – MSM and Web) the nomination from Obama.

    Barring Obama’s really screwing things up somewhere, I suspect that the SDs will decide it is more important to save the Party than to win the election.

    http://tinyurl.com/6ras27

  45. YAB,

    Women are a much larger component of the Democratic base than AA’s. I agree that Howard Dean has really screwed the pooch this time, but nominating another loser will not save the party. If we lose this election, the Democratic party will not only be irrelevant, it may be dead. We have have start a new opposition party at that point. Obama is another in a long line of losers, following in the sad footsteps of McGovern, Monday, Dukakis, and Kerry. He has no chance to win the general election. I don’t know what the solution is, but I do know that he can’t win.

  46. Sorry–Mondale! I might need a nap…..

  47. Last night I posted a scenario where the DNC would literally force Hillary out of the race.

    Now, from Talk Left, this:

    http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/4/24/15934/2246

    I really really hope the link works.

  48. merciless, it’s a pretty fun thread — isn’t it? The Rulz, The Math!

  49. I find it ironic that Hillary’s base of support is women but Obama supporters are the whiny b**ches.

  50. Latinos will the dominant minority group in 2 years, not AA. Check the numbers.

  51. Have had a very sucky day. Along with 3 friends we tried calling the DNC phone number that rd provided earlier today to protest the sexism directed toward Hillary. After several unsuccessful attempts the phone call was either automatically disconnected or we were transferred to voicemail. Kind of difficult to yell at a recording. Am doing spring cleaning and while washing a window the upper half came down hard on my head and I literally saw stars. I am now sporting a knob on my forehead the size of a golf ball. Then to top it all off, I had the windows open because it was such a nice day and a gust of wind came along sending 4 flower pots sailing into the sink and dirt is now all over my countertops. I’ve said it thousands over, housework can be dangerous to one’s health. A waste of a perfectly nice day.

  52. Are we going to have to make signs that say
    “It’s democracy, Stupid”

  53. @KB: Ha! Yeah, sad, but true.

    @YAB: There is no evidence that shows Clinton would “destroy” the party if selected. Take heart and check out Survey USA polls that show her beating McCain! In spite of the media onslaught she remains popular enough to pull the overwhelming, vast majority of Obama supporters, including blacks. All that needs to be done to “save” the party if Clinton is chosen is for Obama to campaign on her behalf, including to the media.

    Obama on the other hand presents a clear and present danger to the party: the media will paint him as corrupt, anti-American, a race manipulator, elitist, a terrorist sympathizer, damaging the party as a whole; and he will be utterly humiliated in a landslide.

    Blacks will be rightly outraged at the Democratic party for picking such a weak candidate to be the first black presidential nominee;women will feel betrayed when the DNC is exposed by the media as being hellbent on kneecapping HRC (e.g., MI and FL); and we’ll lose Latinos for decades when McCain wins their vote (handily) to beat Obama and then passes comprehensive immigration reform.

    The rest of the party will be livid that we ran a toxic candidate instead of choosing another historic candidacy that would have most likely won.

  54. Pat,

    You poor thing. I’m so sorry you hurt yourself. I hope you are putting ice on the swelling. Please take care.

  55. Since the Democratic Party seems to consist of idiots like Dean, Brazile, Pelosi, and others who are getting agitated, here are the simplified rules for the next primary elections:

    Rule 1–No state other than NH and IA can choose an early primary date. NH and IA can do whatever they want. We do not want to lose NH’s 4 electoral votes, and much rather lose Florida’s 27.

    Rule 2 — Delegates will be chosen proportionally. You may think that this rule seems designed to drag the primary till June, but you would be wrong.

    Rule 3– Media is to be counted on to give a huge hand to a candidate, by either enhancing a scream, replaying a gaffe over and over, or to claim a candidate is negative, all for the purpose of determining an actual nominee before super Tuesday.

    Rule 4– In the unlikely event that media is unable to drown a candidate, the democratic party, rather than celebrating the fact that they have finally found a tenacious candidate, will assist in sinking the said candidate.

    Rule 5– The party will award a bonus of 30% delegates to states who will have a primary in June, for the purpose of begging them later on not to be relevant.

    Rule 6– The party will choose a very late convention date, will give voting abilities to superdelegates, will encourage states to choose late primary dates, all for the purpose of later begging them to have a fake convention sooner, because they can’t handle the suspense.

    Rule 7– The party elders, who are capable of drafting a letter to superdelegates begging them to decide ASAP for th sake of party unity, would NOT be able to explain to the same delegates why they cannot distinguish head from ass and showing a firm hand in resolving Michigan and Florida situation.

  56. {{{Pat}}} I am so sorry! A crack on the head and dirt all over the kitchen. Ouch. You didn’t get cut did you? Shattered glass is dangerous.

    And you should make sure you don’t have a concussion. (worried)

  57. Katiebird, I’m okay. Going down the street to my daughter’s for supper. Son in law has some chicken on the grill. Just a little disappointed that I was unable to connect firsthand with the DNC. Went to the website and sent an e-mail which probably will end up in e-mail heaven. Asked my friends to do the same. You never know. Also wanted rd to know we tried. Maybe tomorrow. They have to start hearing us.

  58. Pat, I’m very glad to hear that. My sister had a horrible experience with a similar accident so I’m really glad you’re OK. Take it easy, though.

    I think the DNC is set up to avoid calls from Democrats.

  59. Ghost (shaking my head)

    Why that set of rules is just crazy they’d never do that. Can you imagine the confusion and ill will?

  60. There is no real math there is only a bottom line now and PA provides the data they cant hide behind anymore, it is highly unlikely that Obama can win in Nov. he dose not have the support of white voters generally after millions and in his own Party sure its not all his fault the DNC rigging the race didn’t help him grievance works two ways. Now what motive is there to have him as nominee and shut down the race if the goal is to win in Nov.. Social justice lecture sure how can they resist, expanded the Party presence in AA district in the South maybe and some western States where he has energized this demographic and that will stay loyal as his negatives rise. But is it worth giving up the White House for?

    That’s what Dean Reid Pelosi are rushing to shut down not Clinton herself but the extended Base’s understanding of what the DNC and Dem Leadership are attempting to pull.

  61. Katiebird and Pat,

    I unsubbed from the DNC e-mail list and I wrote an explanation why–they need to seat FL and MI and speak up about the misogyny in the news media. This was weeks ago. Well, today I got an e-mail from Dean, and the unsub link had been disabled. I tried clicking on every link in the message, and the links were all dead, including the button to contribute. So I guess they have decided to start sending me stuff again and there’s nothing I can do about it but use my delete button. Oh well….

  62. Blog and Newspaper reports have been surfacing up suggesting that Sen. Clinton has no chance in winning the democratic nomination because Sen. Obama has been leading in both the pledged and popular votes.

    However, there is a rule in the DNC laws for governing the 2008 democratic convention which was founded by me which states:

    17. UNIT RULE AND SLATE-MAKING
    A. The unit rule, or any rule or practice whereby all members of a Party unit or delegation may be
    required to cast their votes in accordance with the will of a majority of the body, shall not be used
    at any stage of the delegate selection process.

    Rule 17A (as far as I understand it) will allow the pledged delegates to vote for whoever they want after the 1st ballot has not decided on who is the nominee for the presidency is.

    All these reports may be just a way for the Obama surrogates to try to crush the enthusiasm of Clinton supporters by telling them to vote Obama for the nomination because Clinton have no way of overtaking Obama for the nomination.

    The only problem and question with this scenario is after the nomination, then what? If Sen. Obama wins, then his run for the presidency is doomed from the start because of the Wright controversy and the unfolding Rezko scandal. That, to me is a compelling reason for Sen. Clinton to go on up to the Denver Convention.

    Then there is Mich. and Fla. where Obama has virtually succeeded in blocking the revotes, thus ensuring protest votes in those States in the GE, and the possibility of sympathy votes from other States. Thus, the Obama strategy is to win the nomination process in whatever way they could without thinking of how to win the GE after that.

  63. bostonboomer,

    Is there a way to block the email address in your spam filter? That might do to the trick.

  64. Sigh. What happened to Booman? He used to be so …. not crazy. I’d miss my old blog home, but it’s become such a nasty place these days.

  65. bostonboomer: decided to start sending me stuff again and there’s nothing I can do about it

    Reading stuff like this makes me glad that I have an old Sun box in running a mail and DNS server in the house. I’d configure the mail program to bounce back with a customized message: “Messages from the DNC are not accepted at this domain.”

  66. BTW, the magic number is 2208 (from mydd’s side bar which includes MI and FL).

    Michigan and Florida also have superdelegates, which are currently barred from casting a vote. Total Michigan delegates 156 (includes 28 superdelegates), Total Florida delegates of 211 (includes 26 superdelegates).

  67. Oh yes, I can send the stuff to the spam filter, no problem. I just thought it was wierd that that sent me an e-mail and none of the links worked.

  68. litegator mom – thanks for the reminder to check out Gail Collins – I have enjoyed her for years. One of the few op-eds i can tolerate.

    bostonboomer – funny – In old email address of mine was signed up for the dnc emails too – I unsubscribed today too.

    The circle of webistes I can tolerate decreases everyday. Flip side – my work is taking my focus again and that is a GOOD THING!

  69. I saw the Carville/Richardson fisticuffs last night on Larry King. Carville had a fixed cold glaze on Richardson that read loud and clear “you mofo liar and you know it.” If they’d been in the same studio, I think James would’ve taken a swing at him. He looked really, really, really pissed. And Richardson did give off the shifty-eyed “who me?” liar vibe. You know, the kind kids give to their parents when they’re caught redhanded and go into double talking denial mode.

  70. now THAT woould be fun to watch. Carville has a mean mouth when he wants to use it.

  71. Whenever you write about Pennsylvania, I encourage you to use the phrase, “Obama’s humiliating loss.” I think it will be useful to let the three words meld together across the whole of the Democratic blogosphere.

  72. From MA Blue earlier today:

    *Must-must-must-see of the day!

    James Carville takes Bill Richardson to School:

    Part 1
    Prart 2
    Part 3

    Yaowza! I haven’t seen such beatings since Mel Gibson got hold of Jesus in The Passion of the Christ.

    *Conflucians, I am warning you. There will be a quiz, administered by none other than moi.

    Here is the 1st question: We all know Bill Richardson was a terrible candidate, but was he rally this dumb? Always?

  73. Ah, DCDem — that’s good.

  74. BostonBoomer, My DNC mail stopped. But I can’t get off the DFA list.

  75. Thanks, katiebird!

  76. Sounds like they’ve had so many people unsubscribe, that they want to keep the email addresses they have. What a great way to make people happy…

  77. Katiebird:

    Richardson went to the LGBT forum and told Melissa Etheridge he thought homosexuality was a choice.

    She asked him again and he repeated it.

    That’s like going to a BPW conference and saying women should stay home and raise kids.

    D-U-M-B

  78. Oops, that was MAB’s question, but the answer’s the same.

  79. Have you guys seen the latest from David Shuster?

    From BTD http://www.talkleft.com

    During the April 22 edition of MSNBC Live, guest host David Shuster said to senior campaign correspondent Tucker Carlson: “Before we get to predictions, Tucker, I want to present you … It’s a pen. It’s ‘Jabber Jaw Pens.’ And when you listen to it here.” At this point, Shuster pressed the top of the pen — a likeness of Sen. Hillary Clinton’s head — and the mouth began to move as the pen began audibly laughing. After the pen stopped, Shuster continued: “[I]n honor of being on the air with you for the first time in a little while, I present to you with a Hillary laughing pen.” In response, Carlson stated: “I can’t tell you, David, how much I appreciate this, how much I appreciate your going through Chris’ mail while he’s gone and how much I’m really going to miss that cackle. I hope it goes on forever. It’s brought light to my life.” Carlson also pressed the pen.

    Shuster then said: “As we — to the refrain of Hillary cackling, let’s start with predictions tonight. What’s going to happen?”

  80. What a dolt he is, myiq2xu. That’s totally ignorant.

    I think Richardson was Kos’s original first interest for President. He thought Richardson was brilliant. At least that’s my memory.

    I can’t say I’ve seen any reason for that sort of admiration.

  81. BB. Isn’t that Schuster the same guy who said the Clinton’s were pimping Chelsea out when she was making calls to super delegates a few months ago?

  82. Heh,,,,Jerome don’t think it’s over….

    He, like I thinks that the SDs will do their job and throw Barry the Ignorant under the bus where he can do no more harm. Barry can go back to the Senate and caucus with his good pal Crazy Joe and the rest of the Republicans.

    Even Larry Johnson has been mentioning the guy who’s name has been on my lips ever since L’Affair du Wright.

    That would be McGovern. A great American but a big damn loser against Nixon.

  83. Yes it is katiebird, BTD over at TalkLeft thinks he should be fired.

    How do we go about that, anyone?

  84. mo blue and katie – thanks for the links. Carville DOES point out how negaitve Obama is.

    Richardson is a joke. Un chiste. All that garbage about dynasties and Monaco. Screw him. I hope whatever happens the doors are shut to him. Nobody trusts backstabbers and that is what he is.

  85. Shuster’s not a misogynist. He’s just a dick.

  86. Katiebird,

    Yes, Shuster is the same person who called Chelsea a whore and Hillary a pimp. This is beyond belief. Next he’ll be bringing in the Hillary nutcracker. I can’t wait until Hillary is President and these guys have to deal with it.

  87. This is off-topic, but I just read it and it annoys the heck out of me.

    http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-money24apr24,1,2328541.story

    “Barack Obama still takes in oil money”

    This kind of double standard ticks me off royally — exposes the media bias. Candidate of change? Yeah, okay.

  88. Photo of David Shuster with Hillary “cackling” pen.

    http://shakespearessister.blogspot.com/2008/04/hillary-sexism-watch-part-eighty-three.html

  89. Pat, so sorry you got hurt! it’s good your daughter lives nearby and can check on you. hope the swelling goes down soon and you feel better.

  90. Jerome’s post is good.

    Alice, I’ll read that LA Times story after we watch Lost (we taped it)

  91. Check it out gang – more on PA

    According to The Politico’s Ben Adler, Obama may have some problems with his targeted demographic – younger voters.

    The article discusses issues with the PA primary, but it will be interesting to see how this dynamic plays out in the General Election. Go to Politico-Obama Suffers Crack in Youth Appeal

    “The weakness in Barack Obama’s support among older white voters appears to have trickled down to younger ones, at least in Pennsylvania, according to exit polls from the state’s primary this week.

    While Barack Obama carried voters under 30 years old on Tuesday by 20 points — 60 percent to Hillary Clinton’s 40 percent—he narrowly lost whites in the same age group by four points, 48 percent compared to Clinton’s 52 percent.”

    Young whites were the only white demographic that Obama carried in close primaries leading up to Pennsylvania’s, as he did in the Clinton stronghold of New York, and in states with racially polarized voting among older voters, such as South Carolina.

    Normally Clinton only wins the white youth vote in states she totally dominates, such as Arkansas — not ones where she won by 10 points or less overall as she did in Pennsylvania.”

    Well, we’ll see how this plays out. All I know is that DEan, Pelosi and Reid are going nuts. Now they want to send Super D”s a letter telling them they need to come out after 6/3.

    Hey – they are freaking out….what if she actually gets the popular vote? What if they have to do something about Fla and Mich?

    The sky is falling!!!!!!

    Go Hillary go!

  92. I love this video with excerpts from Hillary’s speech last night:

    https://contribute.hillaryclinton.com/april24.html?sc=1813&utm_source=1813&utm_medium=e&ta=zep3ds

  93. Just came from Sen. Clinton’s appearance in Fayetteville, NC (home to Fort Bragg and Pope Air Force Base) where she had about 6 or 7 retired generals, including NC-native and former Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Hugh Shelton, speaking on her behalf. Here’s video on the local paper’s website while it lasts…

    http://www.fayobserver.com/

    One of my fav moments was in reference to the cancelled NC debate. Sen. Clinton said she will debate “anytime, anywhere!” I also just love (among many things) her pragmatic candor (i.e. straight talk): “You know, I’m behind here [in NC], I know that, I know what’s going on. But that doesn’t mean I won’t keep fighting!”

    Damn straight, sister…the media in NC and elsewhere keep writing that NC has been written off. It’ll be tough, don’t get me wrong, but President Clinton is going to every dang small town in the state (4 to 5 events a day! The man is a MACHINE!), this was Sen. Clinton’s second appearance in my hometown, and Chelsea has been to more NC college campuses than most professors. This will be a fight in the Tarheel state…we don’t take anything for granted!!

  94. Here, it’s all gloom & despair, though mtiq2xu’s little song cheers me up. A great chopping of heads is expected tomorrow, with soon to be ex-employees evaporating all at once. No fun at all.

  95. BFF, I’m so sorry. That sounds more than grim.

  96. In all my internet posts I am using the phrase “after Obama’s humiliating loss in PA”.

    I think it is a great idea of someone here, and I suggest we all use it.

  97. BFF, how awful! I hope you’re safe. that happened at my company a couple of months ago. I was surprised I survived. now we’re way short-handed and everyone’s miserable, and we keep hearing about the great jobs the laid off people ended up getting. sometimes that kind of thing can be a blessing in disguise, I suppose, if there’s another opportunity out there. good luck tomorrow!

  98. Assume I’ll survive (or consult back to them for twice the price 😉 but others I know will not. Hasn’t happened in my area over the last 15 years, but now that research is so readily outsourced, I think they are quick to downsize.

  99. KatieBird,

    Excellent post! Thank you.

  100. elixir, thank you very much.

    BFF, I’ve worked in libraries my whole life so I’m totally unfamiliar with that kind of stress. I hope things go as well as possible tomorrow. Or better.

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