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Thursday- That’ll learn ya’

Hola, mi amigos. I’m going on vacation tomorrow to Denver for a week to do that whole Rocky Mountain thing. So, I have a lot to do today to get ready and posting will be light. (HA! I always tell myself this) BTW, if anyone from Clinton’s campaign is reading this and needs a blogger in Denver for the Convention, I have a place to stay for free or vastly reduced cost *hint, hint*.

Update Action Alert: If you think that the DNC is out of it’s mind by not seating the FL and MI delegations and you find this unacceptable for the DEMOCRATIC party to not be practicing DEMOCRACY, then I have a petition for you. 😉 Sign on the line at Seat our Delegates. (Note the “you can’t count on us to vote in November” statement. They aren’t ruling it out. They’re just saying, “Nice chance of winning back the WH in November you got there. You wouldn’t want anything to *happen* to it, eh”)

Anyways, the trolls are thicker than a perilous Hobbitt episode but many of them are incredibly dim. Fortunately, our friends at Corrente have been schooling them so at least they know what the heck they’re talking about. For example:

  • Vastleft jumps to the advanced material with Sneaky Chelsea Dodges Questions about, well, you know. Unfortunately, some trolls came to the class on wits unarmed. So, Lambert taught the prerequisite course in irony and The Clenis. It pains me to have to bring this subject up because Chelsea is right, it’s none of our business. But the Beevis and Butthead crowd in the 90’s Washington Press Corps started it and are now passing it down to a new generation and they really need to get their facts straight. Like, as Democrats, they should be ashamed to bring up this sordid episode in the life of the American media. If any one came out of it looking bad, it was them.
    As for Chelsea, we should al be so lucky and as Jackie-O once said, “If you mess up your children, nothing else you do really matters” Kudos to Hillary for doing a remarkable job under duress.
  • Tukana schools us on Iraq, the Candidates and the Netroots. Getting out of Iraq is not going to be easy and the candidate that has set unrealistic expectations is going to be in a heap of trouble if he/she can’t deliver after the election but this is going to fall on Barry’s head harder. Many of his younger supporters are virulently anti-war, (aren’t we all?) but don’t realize that things aren’t going to happen overnight. It’s going to take time. Ahh, the impatience of youth. And this is what they are in large part basing their voting decision on. In the meantime, mortars strike inside the Green Zone.
  • BTW, did you tune your tinfoil antenna today to pick up Clinton’s latest directive? Lambert finds yet another fault in Josh Marshall’s reasoning, or, rather, the people that Josh Marshall allows to lower the level of discourse at his site. Look guys, it’s really simple. We *like* Clinton. She’s not perfect but she’s supersmart, committed, tough as nails and she’s the real Democrat in this race. We don’t like Obama because he’s has no record to speak of, his campaign is determined to disenfranchise the votes of Floridians and Wolverines and, finally, he has shown a remarkable amount of contempt for the Democratic base of women and “typical white” people. There’s really no mystery about it. In fact, the only ones who seem to be mindlessly following control signals appear to be Obamaphiles. Their support for their candidate makes no damn sense except in terms of him not being Clinton. That’s the sum total of support for him: he is the anti-Clinton. Anyway, the superdelegates are reportedly holding back and assessing the situation to see if Obama “might prove to be a stronger draw”. Uh, no. The answer would be no. Come on, guys, I have talked to people on the phone who several years ago would have never considered voting for Clinton but they are *eager* to do it this year and it has nothing to do with messing up the Democrats. It’s because they’ve seen enough of her lately to know what mettle she’s made of and they like her. Jeez. Keep those emails flowing. The SDs don’t get it yet.
  • Oh, brother, here we go again. The NYTimes reports that all of the innovation in passing around news virally is happening because young people are doing it. Yep, it’s only the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Models with PhDs for Obama who do that stuff. That would make us….what, exactly? Jeez, I was using chats, writing html and embedding before these kids were out of diapers. Heck, I remember when Mosaic was the coolest thing since sliced bread. And before *that* we ftp’d each other and thought we were hot spit because we could finger the vending machine at CMU. WE blazed the trail. Gits.

58 Responses

  1. Oh! My! God!

    How does Hillary survive this onslaught… From the “progressives”?

    Because I hate myself, I just wander on the Puffpost/politics and here are some of the frontpage stories:

    – Obama: “Extremely Helpful” To Settle Nomination Soon

    – Obama, Not Clinton, Pressing For Florida Delegates Solution

    – Obama, Bloomberg Meeting Fuels Endorsement Rumors

    – Progressive Blogs DailyKos, Open Left Officially Endorse Obama

    – Poll: Pastor Controversy Hasn’t Hurt Obama

    – Hillary’s Approval Rating Plummets

    – Paul Krugman Slams… Hillary

    – Voter Registration Shows Signs Of Promise For Obama In PA

    – DNC Official: Clinton Pursuing “Tonya Harding” Option

    – GOP Prepares New Strategy: Clinton Stole Nomination

    – Clinton To Attend Forum At Monica Goodling’s Alma Mater

    – The Clinton Myth: Nomination All But Unachievable

    – Caught On Film: Hillary Talks To Architect Of Vast Right Wing Conspiracy

    – Jason Linkins>> Morning Shows Snipe At Clinton Over Bosnia Remarks

    – Gallup: Obama Retakes Lead Over Clinton

  2. Jeez, I was using chats, writing html and embedding before these kids were out of diapers.

    Ha. I used Mosaic when UIUC was the WWW. Take that, brats.

  3. MABlue — what I find fascinating is how Hillary has been ‘Liebermanized’ by the blogs.

  4. riverdaughter: One of the things about reading wonderful blogs like yours is the links that people go to. I have abandoned TPM much the same way I gave up the ghost on the Site that Must Not Be Named. Yesterday, I read a wonderful post of yours and followed the link to get the background. I landed at TPM. I recognize the importance of getting data from the dim lights of the progressive movement, but maybe a toxic waste dump alert would be useful to the more sensitive Hillary supporters, like me.

  5. Puerto Rico gov. and Obama supporter indicted today:

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080327/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/puerto_rico_governor

    I see Hillary doing really well in Puerto Rico although I don’t want to jinx it.

  6. DCD: Sorry about that. I think you must have ended up at Greg Sargent’s site. He’s not TOO bad. Oh, yeah, maybe I included a link to Josh’s frontpage. But it was only to be used as an example of the level of absurdity that TPM has gravitated to. Hmmm, I wonder if the Polk Award committee is having second thots.

  7. Just to clear up any confusion: the PR governor is an Obama supporter.

  8. RD: Sargent is a big part of the problem IMNSHO.

    DCDEM: add talkleft to your bookmarks if you haven’t already.

  9. Wasn’t “viral” the idea for the internet as it exists? I dated a few programmers back in the day, and long before the internet had a name that I knew that seemed to be the intent behind what was being cooked up.

    I mean, as businessmen have long observed, the internet was developed by people without a proper appreciation for profit motive – as one of them so succinctly expressed in an interview I saw. DFH – they’ll get you everytime. They’ll create something incredibly cool and then do everything they can to give it away free. 🙂

  10. BTW – how weird it must be to be Chelsea Clinton and know that the media – the entire fucking media of the greatest nation in the history of the world – is out to destroy your parents.

  11. MABlue — I remember when Obama was ‘Liebermanized’ after a brief interaction on dkos. From what I hear ,he remembers too … but any fairweather port in a storm, I suppose.

    Greg Sargent has his (enormous) faults, but he’s the only hand at TPM who has at least tried to maintain balance and keep one finger on the RealityLand map.

    Josh is as deep in the tank for Obama as he was for Bush when it came to invading Iraq, and Kleefeld should be drawing campaign salary.

  12. Josh is as deep in the tank for Obama as he was for Bush when it came to invading Iraq, and Kleefeld should be drawing campaign salary.

    Nice!

  13. And I’ll post my daily reminder: 😉

    “The Iraq War Was a Media Darling Too”.

  14. Riverdaughter – I signed the petition. These are my comments:

    Democrats should not disenfranchise their voters. That’s what Republicans do. We are better than that. Do not ignore the will of the people. Either re-vote or count the delegates as they are. No other solutions are acceptable.

    I also wrote them yesterday.

    Keep on keeping on – I love your blog and visit it every day. 🙂

    So many so-called lefty blogs are now a non-stop orgy of Hillary Hate. It’s one thing to honestly prefer Obama, but why do we have to demonize Hillary? It’s disgraceful, and they’ve lost my traffic.

  15. Joe Scarborough went off the reservation this morning and told the truth about “the math.” The numbers don’t add up for Obama either, but the media doesn’t say that. Scarborough really smacked down Richard Wolfe when Wolfe said “the pledged delegates are how we decide” Scarborough confronted him–“we?” Like Newweek is the decider now? Video at Taylor Marsh’s place.

    http://taylormarsh.com/

    Will Scarborough be suspended for two weeks for defending Hillary Clinton?

  16. Teresa23, on March 27th, 2008 at 11:21 am Said:
    And I’ll post my daily reminder:

    “The Iraq War Was a Media Darling Too”.

    Teresa, dead on…this is sort of what I’ve been saying…the media that progressives have bitched about for 7 YEARS (and rightly so) is the same media that some progressives are sucking up now…

    That should be a big clue…they’re hopeless.

  17. Following his speech, Obama will hold a fundraiser at New York offices of Credit Suisse, one of the nation’s top sub-prime lenders. Clinton’s campaign says this is an example of Obama saying one thing and doing another. President Clinton passed his deficit reduction package (with no Republican votes and with Greenspan (the growth maven’s blessing), when the DOW was around 3000. Two years later, the DOW was at 5500. When President Clinton left office, the DOW was around 11000. After 7 years of Republican deficits, lobbyists, foreclosures, wars, corruption and theft, the DOW hovers around 12000.
    Are we all better off???

  18. Someone tell me the sky is not falling!

    I am still shocked that Frank Luntz is the one telling the truth about the Democratic primary. He is clearly more honest that ALL Obama’s surrogates and EVERYONE on that swamp infested MessNBC.

    Watch and lemme know if I was just dreaming.

  19. According to 1996 exit polling over 60% of those who voted for Bill Clinton said they did not trust him. They voted for him because they and their families were better off than they were four years earlier and they gave him the credit. From day one….

  20. The negativity of the Obama-Clinton contest seems to be hurting Sen. Clinton more, the poll shows. A 52% majority of all voters says she doesn’t have the background or values they identify with. By comparison, 39% say that of Sen. Obama, and 32% of Sen. McCain.
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120657171729866843.html

  21. New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg introduced Obama but quickly dispelled any endorsement buzz.

    “As you know I have not endorsed a candidate for president, but I have been very clear in my hope that all the candidates explain how they will approach all the great challenges facing our country,” Bloomberg said, adding that he was pleased to introduce Obama and “not just because he picked up the check when we had breakfast together.”
    http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/03/27/obama-calls-for-tougher-oversight-in-financial-sector/?mod=WSJBlog

  22. riverdaughter and andgarden: Thanks to both of you.

  23. Prohillary: That is a WSJ/NBC poll. Or was that a push poll? C’mon, there’s no comparison between Clinton and Obama on qualifications. And as for values, this is ridiculous. Wright did not make any friends in PA. Where are they getting these numbers? Consider the source. To be honest, I am not a poll jockey. I follow them rarely and cite them less. When they debate in PA, it’s all going to change although he will have time to cram for this one.

  24. You have all seen this wright ?

    Judicial Watch: Obama ‘intended to leave no paper trail’
    http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/judicial-watch-obama-intended-to-leave-no-paper-trail-2008-03-26.html

    The bo abuse Hillary tee vee will not report it , for sure .

  25. Loved the petition and signed it. Am passing it on.
    Thanks!
    ps have fun in Denver!

  26. Why doesn’t Obama quit and pour his support behind Clinton? Clinton’s quitting wouldn’t work. First, her supporters would NOT support Obama. Second, there is no way she could persuade her supporters to vote for Obama. Third, since her voters are mostly drawn to her pragmatic, centrist views, Obama is way too far left and McCain would be the more attractive option.

  27. Halperin has an interesting take this morning. Nine theories on
    If Obama Has The Nomination Wrapped Up, Why is His Campaign Going After Clinton So Hard?

  28. prohillary, riverdaughter:

    About that poll, I have this nugget:

    The Journal-NBC poll was conducted March 24-25 and included telephone interviews with 700 registered voters, with an oversampling of 177 black voters. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for all registered voters, 4.3 points for white voters and 7.4 points for black voters.

    The black population is now 25.3% of the total population? And one more thing: Obama gets that vote by 9 to 1.

    Why question is why they did not simply poll Obama’s voters exclusively, because that would be the next step.

  29. Joint ticket sounds reasonable; it says “share.” But only the pragmatic, flexible, problem-solving Clinton has expressed any willingness to expliore such an option. Obama has never changed course in his life, has never wavered from his focus of gaining black authenticity at whatever price, and certainly shown no respect for women. Look what he did to his beloved granny!!!

  30. WOW! Wow!

    with an oversampling of 177 black voters. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for all registered voters, 4.3 points for white voters and 7.4 points for black voters.

    Of course the unemployment numbers are rigged, why shouldn’t polls be rigged? We’re just lucky they note methods…Thanks!!

  31. The black population is now 25.3% of the total population? And one more thing: Obama gets that vote by 9 to 1.

    Why question is why they did not simply poll Obama’s voters exclusively, because that would be the next step.

    No. It’s standard practice to oversample a sub-category of interest to obtain a lower MOE, and then to re-weight for final poll reporting. The idea here is that white representation is large enough, not requiring an oversample. If one were to draw conclusions on ‘black opinion’ based only on 13% of 700, the MOE would be over 10.

  32. My Reason #10 to Halperin’s 9: It’s how he’s done it all along. it may be the only way he knows.

  33. hlr:

    How about Hispanics, Asian-Americans and other sub-groups? That explanation alone is not enough.

  34. MABlue: That explanation alone is not enough.

    Why not?

    Given that Hispanics are not a significant factor in upcoming contests, the poll sponsors probably just aren’t interested in greater resolution on their opinion at this time. It adds $$ to the poll design.

  35. Rob Christensen, Staff Writer Mar 27, 2008 06:29 AM
    GREENSBORO – Sen. Barack Obama said Wednesday that his chief rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton was too closely tied to the Washington status quo to bring about change. “She takes more money from lobbyists and special interests than any candidate, including John McCain,” Obama told about 2,400 people at a town hall meeting in War Memorial Auditorium. “That shows she doesn’t have the sense that things need to change in Washington.”
    http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/1014734.html

  36. Link goodies:

    http://thepage.time.com/halperins-take-if-obama-has-the-nomination-wrapped-up-why-is-his-campaign-going-after-clinton-so-hard/

    (HALPERIN’S TAKE: If Obama Has The Nomination Wrapped Up, Why is His Campaign Going After Clinton So Hard?)

  37. MABlue, here’s another way of looking at it.

    Imagine that you’re polling in a state like WA, OR, IA, where the black population is less than 5% of the overall state population. You often see voting patterns that are counter-intuitive, like 50%R – 50% D or some such.

    The reason is that the sub-sample is so small that it is not truly representative of black opinion in these states.

    So you intentionally oversample to get a more reliable measure. Let’s say you find that the black vote actually breaks out 75D-25R. You re-weight this result for the actual share of the black population in the state and report final results.

  38. MABlue: In summer 2003, the US Census Bureau estimated that African Americans represented 13.3 percent of all persons who lived in the US.

  39. hlr:

    you get it wrong on one major thing: It’s a national poll.

  40. ghost2: Concerning the Halperin link, as The Who observed, “Meet the new boss; same as the old boss.”

  41. hlr:

    Given that Hispanics are not a significant factor in upcoming contests, the poll sponsors probably just aren’t interested in greater resolution on their opinion at this time

    Have you checked the remaining 10 states. Blacks are a little bit of a factor in NC and maybe in IN, especially in Indianapolis, in PA only in Philly.

    As you see there is not a solid reason to oversample blacks alone as a sub-group.

  42. MABlue: you get it wrong on one major thing: It’s a national poll.

    Again, you need to clarify for me what is wrong or not sufficient.

    Why should I assume that blacks, hispanics, whites, etc are not properly represented in this national poll? Oversampling blacks does not mean that black opinion impacts the poll results out-of-proportion to representation in the general population.

  43. Indiana has a 9% AA population and Pennsylvania has 10% AA population.

    Indianapolis has 25% (over at wikipedia but that should be close) AA population. There is northwest Indiana that is part of Chicagoland. Basically, Obama is going after northwest Indiana, Indianapolis, and the college towns.

    Hillary should fight for Indianapolis though because there are lots of working class whites there too. I would presume South Bend, home of Notre Dame, would have lots of Catholics and Hillary does well in that group.

  44. MABlue: Blacks are a little bit of a factor in NC

    A little bit?

    Per capita black population:

    #7 Alabama 25.4
    #8 North Carolina 20.4
    #9 Delaware 18.6

    That’ll be at least 30% in a Dem primary.

    PA is 21 (TX is 20). I expect the black vote fraction in PA to be at least 15% w/ no Hispanic block to offset. Indiana is 8.3%, which, in a highly Republican state, will translate to low teens, minimum.

    Let’s not forget that all three states have CBC districts, and we know what happens delegate-wise. There’s Julia Carson’s seat in IN, Fattah’s in PA, Watts and Butterfield’s in NC, off the top of my head.

  45. Here is someone’s take on Indiana from mydd

    http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/24/1132/03187

    Hope its right!

  46. prohillary, Why Won’t Obama Quit?

  47. hlr, TX has 11% AA population and PA has a 10% AA population.

    Yahoo Political Dashboard has demographic info.

    http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

  48. WS — yep, and their weight in a Dem primary is approx a factor of two.

  49. Oh, WS, the 20/21 w/r/t TX/PA in the above post refers to national rank. Sorry if that wasn’t clear.

  50. hlr, oh ok. I expect AA participation in PA to be 15-17%; in NC to be 30-34%; and in IN to be 13-15%.

    Here’s more on Puerto Rico governor indictment from Talk Left.

    http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/3/27/121211/596

  51. To compare, OH has a 12% AA population and 18% primary participation. TX has 11% AA population and 19% primary participation.

  52. WS I expect AA participation in PA to be 15-17%; in NC to be 30-34%; and in IN to be 13-15%.

    Sounds quite reasonable. NC will be difficult, and frankly, small fluctuations in black opinion could be critical to Hillary’s chances.

    NC ranks #8 in terms of black population per capita. Obama has won 1-7 (DC thru Alabama) and 9-10 (DE/VA). You have to drop down to #11 (TN) to get the first Hillary win.

  53. I’ll confirm hlr’s general take here. In a 50/50 swing state, AA Democratic general election share approaches double the general population share. (That effect generally increases in red states and decreases in blue states.)

    There’s nothing nefarious about oversampling the black vote. Its practically mandatory if you’re trying to find out anything about the black vote. Note the AA MoE is still huge in the poll we’re talking about.

  54. And note that primaries and caucuses are low-turnout affairs. Any selective motivator (such as blacks voting for a black finalist) can skew the outcome enormously.

  55. Speaking of OL, I see that they are starting a petition to back up Pelosi vs the evil Clinton donors.

    Right underneath the blog entry? A blogad: John McCain for President.

  56. Taylor Marsh has a story about the AA oversampling in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.

    http://www.taylormarsh.com/

    I don’t really look at national poll numbers right now as they change with each new contest that takes place.

  57. “I have talked to people on the phone who several years ago would have never considered voting for Clinton but they are *eager* to do it this year and it has nothing to do with messing up the Democrats.”

    Amen! My dad is a very conservative Democrat, who has always hated Hillary. (When she ran for Senate and he expressed his dislike, I threw a “you just hate powerful women” at him and he almost decked me.) Anyway, back before the MD primary I spoke w/him, and he planned to vote for Hill then & in the GE. He said that Bushie has made such a mess that the only one he thought could clean it up was Hillary (granted, with an assist from Bill). My liberal Republican mom (pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, wonderful) said she would vote for McCain over Obama, but not take any pleasure in it. They both feel that the world and this country are so messed up now, that they would never vote for the rock star candidate with no resume.

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