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Ah, Jeez, they’re at it again (or who are the SDs more afraid of? Wyoming or NEW JERSEY?)

Both TalkingPointsMemo and The Politico are winding up the “there’s no possible way Hillary can win” crap. Esentially, these guys are trying to make the voters of PA, WV, KY, IN and NC feel that there is no possible way our votes can count so why bother? Before I go off on another post describing why this is just a haka, let me just express how incredibly disappointed I am with my own party.

We were supposed to be the good guys. We were the ones for counting every vote. We were disgusted with voter suppression in Ohio in 2004. We were the ones who hated Rovian tactics of smearing other people’s character. We were apalled when the Republicans tried to control their primaries in 2000 by essentially picking a candidate in advance and defaming John McCain in South Carolina with racist smears and innuendos.

And what do we have this year? We have the DNC disenfranchising what they must have known in advance was going to be a pro-Hillary state- Florida. They didn’t just apply the standard punishment, they completely wiped the voters off of the map. We have a candidate who is just fine with suppressing the voters of MI and FL by passively dragging his feet so their voices don’t get heard unless they don’t count. And by extension, he is robbing NJ, NY, CA, AZ, MA, OH and TX the critical mass it needs for Clinton while at the same time artificially inflating the delegate counts and popular vote of Obama. If it isn’t technically cheating, it is certainly immoral. We have one candidate, Senator Obama, accusing the Clintons, life long advocates of civil rights and healing the racial divide, of being racists. We’ve heard Senator Obama offer an olive branch to Clinton on the floor of the senate and then had his campaign turn around and accuse her of ruthlessness and unethical behavior. And we’ve had the mouthpiece for the DNC, Donna Brazile, go on Sunday morning talking heads programs and threaten to leave the Democratic party if she doesn’t get her way and Obama doesn’t get nominated.

But here’s the kicker. Jim VamderHei and Mike Allen, who are clearly fans of the Republican party, make no mistake about that, write this stupid paragraph in the above mentioned post:

Unless Clinton is able to at least win the primary popular vote — which also would take nothing less than an electoral miracle — and use that achievement to pressure superdelegates, she has only one scenario for victory. An African-American opponent and his backers would be told that, even though he won the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else.

How about we do some truthful rearranging? Because here’s the REAL situation:

Unless Obama is able to win at least one large electoral college state or swing state outside of Illinios — which also would take nothing less than an electoral miracle — and use that achievement to pressure superdelegates, he has only one scenario for victory. A more qualified opponent and her backers in NJ, NY, CA, MA, OH, AZ, TX, (PA), MI and FL would be told that, even though she won the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else.

And if you think you can haka your way to the nomination and sit on the millions and millions of us who voted for Clinton in the big electoral college states, YOU are the one out of your minds. We are going to swing a big stick. Count on it.

One more thing: I pinched this from Taylor Marsh’s page. She writes:

Don’t look now, but Democrats are in trouble, especially with Obama at the top, which is where we stand today. Superdelegates can sense the general election dangers of an Obama candidacy, but at the same time can also imagine the furor if they decide against him. News flash folks: What makes anyone think Clinton supporters will be any less outraged? Like I said, all signs point to trouble

.

First, we screened poll respondents to find those who were aware that Obama’s pastor was in the news. A startling 82% knew about Obama’s speech, and about the controversy surrounding the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Of those who knew about the controversy and the speech, we asked, “Taking all this into account, are you more or less likely to support Obama for president?”Less likely (52%)
More likely (19%)
About the same (27%)
No opinion (2%)

74 Responses

  1. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=431908&in_page_id=1770

    Found an early review and fact check of Obama’s Dreams of My Father–from commenter Troubled American at The Left Coaster.

    Daily Mail looks at several discrepancies, but doesn’t get them all. Brief and interesting.

    Learned Obama has a half-sister in England, btw.

  2. riverdaughter–have you listed places to contact for working in PA? Are there any ways to get car pools going–or find groups with busses? Or, do you have contacts?

    I should probably look at Hillary’s site, d’iuh. But, any others? T/U.

  3. Good grief! MSNBC is showing the breakfast meeting photo of Bill Clinton standing near Rev. Wright!

    The MCM really does feel it can select our candidates and then our president. And their last choice worked out sooooo well.

  4. jawbone: are you located in NJ? I am planning to be in PA in the Harrisburg area starting the April11- primary every weekend. I am also going to be there this weekend but most likely, volunteering on Saturday will be short. But, if anyone wants to join me in April, my car can accomodate two other people comfortably. As for lodgings, I can see if my mom will put people up.
    You can find state locations for volunteering at the PA locations page at Hillary’s site

  5. It’s the old “Clinton Would Do Anything to Win” memo the Hate Hillary crowd has been pushing since they spun Bill’s “fairytale” comment into a racist attack. When Obama applies pressure to delegates and super delegates and even gets an endorsement from a Super like Bill Richardson who will voting against the majority of NM Democrats’ wishes, it’s all ok.

  6. You know what’s really disgusting? Senator Obama’s release of a 10-year-old photo of Bill Clinton shaking Rev. Wright’s hand at a large gathering of church leaders.

    Yup, that’s the same as belonging to Wright’s church and having a close 20-year relationship with Wright. That’s the same as pretending you denounce his hate-filled views while tacitly endorsing them by staying in his church.

    They pulled this same crap with Reszko when they released a pic of Hillary shaking his hand during her days as First Lady. For Jeebus’ sake, how many peoples’ hands did she shake then?

    Of course, the Obama media love-a-thon goes on no matter what.

    Lucky for us, the majority of Americans don’t care what Olbermann, Kos and the rest of the Obama worshiping crew say. And between now and the convention, I doubt that Obama will win many votes or states.

    It ain’t over till it’s over.

  7. jawbone-

    That’s why I hardly even watch that crap any more. It’s just too damn stinky. It’s bad enough to watch primary returns on CNN when they might have only one (or if we’re lucky, 2!) pro-Hillary pundit go at it with at least 5 pro-Obama pundits (and yes, I’m counting Donna Brazile as pro-Obama) and 2 GOPers… And that’s “the best political team on teevee”? Gimme a break!

    But hey, I guess we should count our lucky stars that CNN allows ANY pro-Hillary commentators on… MSNBO basically has NONE. From Mika Breszinki mouthing Obama talking points on “Morning Joe” to Keith Olbermann mouthing everything one would expect on Daily Kosobamarama on his shows, it’s non-stop Hillary bashing there. I hate to say this, but I now think MSNBO has become as bad as Faux News when it comes to openly hating real Democrats like Hillary. That’s why I mostly watch PBS, listen to public radio, and comes to blogs like this one to get the real news.

    riverdaughter-

    Yep, I’m sick of this crap as well. How do these pundits know that Hillary can’t win? So now Florida & Michigan aren’t states and the opinions of all the Democrats voting for Hillary don’t matter? They’re just doing Obama’s bidding as he tries to force Hill to quit. But I know she’s strong enough to keep fighting, and I’m confident that she’ll get the last laugh in Denver this August. 🙂

  8. If you can stomach profanity and angry music, the last minute or so of this song is from me to the Big Blog Boyz. That became an anthem of sorts for me when I was in high school because I was told I wasn’t smart enough to take the AP classes. Good thing I didn’t listen to that counselor or esle I wouldn’t be finishing up my PhD at a decent school. Everytime I hear that song, I think back to those days.

    I’ve been trying to tell this to every skittish Hillary supporter: The Obama campaign and supporters do not want to have more elections because its not looking good for them.

  9. If the Clintons know one thing, it’s how to fight and how to win that fight. When I hear crap like “She’ll do anything to win the White House” I think “GOOD FOR HER.” We need the White House and Republicans are NEVER going to PLAY FAIR.

    John Kerry wouldn’t do anything to win the White House and look where we are now.

    Republican strategists are salivating to get their teeth into Barack Obama. What they’ve unleashed in the last two weeks is NOTHING compared to what is coming should he get the nomination.

  10. I’d like to also add – when did fighting hard for something become “being unfair?”

  11. madamab,

    You’re right, and I think that’s why they are pushing so hard for Hillary to drop out. Obama isn’t going to win many delegates from here on. Hillary is going to have the momentum going into the convention, despite the tantrums from the big bloggers and the MSNBC cheering squad.

    Hillary isn’t going to quit, and she shouldn’t. If it goes to the convention so be it. Howard Dean could be pressuring Obama to agree to revotes in FL and MI for the good of the party. I guess he doesn’t really care about winning in November? Well we care, and he’s going to have to deal with us.

  12. Mr. Richardson, in an interview, would not say whom he would vote for, but he clearly sided with Mr. Obama in the philosophical debate over how superdelegates should decide how to vote.
    “It should reflect the vote of my state, it should represent the vote of my constituency,” he said. “It shouldn’t be because you’re a fund-raiser or a big-shot delegate. Superdelegates should reflect their state or constituency. If superdelegates decide this nomination, it’s going to look like big-shot politicians and fat-cats decided who should be president.”
    But if Mr. Richardson sides with Mr. Obama on what should drive the decision of the superdelegates, that position would seem to leave him more likely to become a Clinton superdelegate: Mrs. Clinton won New Mexico by a slight margin.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/17/us/politics/17delegates.html

  13. Thnx, riverdaughter–I am in northern NJ, near the I80-I287 intersection (Parsippany area).

    This weekend is not good, but I’ll get in touch about following weekends.

  14. Big vote getter states for Hillary should be PA and Puerto Rico. Kentucky and West Virginia are also good Hillary states. And did those pundits decide that MI and FL fell off the face of the Earth?

  15. Rendel on CNN Campbell Brown told her yesterday that it was t GOP Florida Senate who decided WHEN the Florida primary would be, not the Florida Dems.
    And that almost twenty percent of Florida Dems said that if the primary were invalidated and their votes did not count, they would not be voting Dem.
    Is this the first time Howard Dean has enabled George Herbert Hoover Bush???
    Notice how fast Governor Christie disappeared from his support for a re-do of the Florida primary…..

  16. roger that Jawbone.

  17. Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama each raised more than $1 million in Florida last month — about twice as much as Republican John McCain — despite rising frustration among Democratic voters over whether they would get to help pick their party’s nominee.

    Clinton collected more than $1.2 million, which includes about $65,000 she can spend only if she is the nominee. Obama raised about $1 million in February.

    McCain, whose victory in Florida’s Jan. 29 primary helped him sew up the nomination, raised $514,000 last month.
    http://www.miamiherald.com/campaign08/story/465337.html

  18. Obama must be getting truly desperate. Here’s yet another column (per a commenter on Taylor Marsh’s site) on this same “Hillary can’t win” topic. I especially like number seven in Halperin’s list, in which he openly admits the media is for Obama. I’m always shocked when they openly admit it — they are so rarely truthful.

    Number five is dedicated to the folks in Florida and Michigan.

    Daily Howler will also love this — he’s always so appreciative of the ability of the MSM to read minds — Halperin knows what the superdelegates, Hillary supporters, and Hillary campaign staffers are thinking. He doesn’t even bother to cite “unnamed sources.”

    http://thepage.time.com/halperins-take-painful-things-hillary-clinton-knows-%E2%80%94-or-should-know/

  19. Well, by MY popular vote count (I do count FL and MI, giving BO the lion’s share of “Uncommitted”, I don’t count caucuses), we’re just about tied right now.

    When I finish backing the “caucus effect” out of pledged delegate totals, we’ll see who’s up in a realistic reflection of the expressed voter preferences to date.

    And the superD’s have plenty to think about.

  20. http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/pa_opportunity_ad

    New ad made expressly for PA–has mention and photos of Grandmother and Grandfather Dunham.

  21. http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/21/three-new-obama-ads-in-pennsylvania/

    NYTimes Caucus blog about three new ads by Obama, one expressly for PA and mentions both maternal grandparents (his fighting in WWII and she working in war materiel manufacturing plant).

  22. So now he uses grandma to promote himself? He has no shame.

  23. I’m sticking with Hillary! I think I missed the memo. Oh well.

  24. Jawbone,

    That Daily Mail article about Obama’s father was really facinating. Thanks for the link. If Obama does become president, it would be interesting to write his psychobiography. He has an interesting, but painful, background.

  25. Are these guys going to start a new round of “Hillary should disappear and not dare to compete with The Chosen One”? It’s getting sooo old.

    Check is what vastleft found near the dumpster behind Newsweek offices. That was almost 3 weeks ago.

    The idea that Hillary shouldn’t even be on this earth is nothing new. It’s becoming boring.

  26. RD is right. It’s a haka.

    The Boiz wouldn’t be yelling so loud if they really felt things were going well for them.

    Why? Because they wouldn’t have to. Quiet confidence would be so much more effective.

  27. Does anyone know the expected turnout in Puerto Rico?

    Here it says, switching to a primary allows them to handle a million voters in Puerto Rico.

    http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/breaking-puerto-rico-switches-to.html

    But nearly 2 million voters voted in the 2004 Governor’s race.

    http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2004-12-01-election-hangover_x.htm

    Here’s another article on Puerto Rico and the turnout in question. Also, how will they vote?

    New York does have a large Puerto Rican population (1/4 of the size of Puerto Rico itself says the article – PR population is 4 million so rough estimate is 1 million Puerto Ricans in New York) and New York Puerto Ricans are tight with Hillary.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/03/the_puerto_rico_wildcard.html

    A snippet from the article:

    “Turnout could be very large. There are four important points to keep in mind. First, Puerto Ricans tend to be better voters than those of us stateside. In the last four presidential elections, our participation rate has been about 39% of the total population. About 2 million Puerto Ricans voted in 2004, or about 52% of the public. Bear in mind that they did not get to vote for president. Those are votes for governor and resident commissioner.”

    Finally, the PR primary is open, but the island’s voters don’t fall into the Dem or Rep. split in the US.

  28. Hey Lambert, you ever gonna let me post comments on your site?

  29. At MyDD there is this article with very interesting maps comparing the demographics of OH and PA. Are you a Hillary-Billy an Obama-crat or something in between…. check it out.

    http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/21/152338/706

  30. If Richardson was so terrified of a brokered convention why the hell didn’t he speak out when Obama pulled that stunt with MI? Obama is the one that wants this to go to convention, while Clinton pleaded for re-votes. God, I hope the Clinton team gets that across on some major network.

  31. The DNC sent me a survey. Today, I answered it…by expressing my disgust with the MI\/FL situation; the manipulation and lies of Obama; the lack of vetting by Obama by the poobahs; and my anger at the slap at “older, apparently undervalued women voters.”

    I also suggested that “The Clintons” might be very attractive to voters who are losing their homes and those further affected by the recession that is on the way. The Clinton team at least has had some experience cleaning up one Bush-Reagan financial mess already.

    I also informed them that the money spigot was closed and that I would be de-registering soon.

    Then I ended by reminding them that they have COMPLETELY SCREWED UP and had jumped the shark.

    I added further insult by NOT putting a stamp on their metered envelope…they have enough money, let them pay for my comments!!

  32. Gloria: I added further insult by NOT putting a stamp on their metered envelope

    Good for you.

  33. Kerry said that a President Obama would help the US, in relations with Muslim countries, “in some cases go around their dictator leaders to the people and inspire the people in ways that we can’t otherwise.”
    “He has the ability to help us bridge the divide of religious extremism,” Kerry said. “To maybe even give power to moderate Islam to be able to stand up against this radical misinterpretation of a legitimate religion.”
    http://www.southcoasttoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080317/MEDIA02/80317029/0/MEDIA03
    Kerry was asked what gives Obama that credibility.
    “Because he’s African-American. Because he’s a black man. Who has come from a place of oppression and repression through the years in our own country.”

    In prep school in Hawaii?? In his already maligned granny’s home? With a mother who awakened him early to give him language lessons? At Columbia???? Give me a break! At Harvard? At the University of Chicago? We should all suffer like this…. Get authentic by adoring a demagogue for 20 yrs.

  34. What a doofus!!!

    Will Dean Cost the Dems Florida?

    Helloooooo? Anybody home?:

    According to a poll conducted this week for various Florida media, almost a quarter of Florida Democrats say they’ll be “less likely to support” the party’s nominee if their state’s delegates aren’t seated at the Democratic National Convention in Denver in August — and by seated they mean counted in the final tally to choose the presidential nominee. Florida has more than 4 million registered Democrats, but even just taking into account the 1.7 million Florida Democrats who voted in the January primary, that’s still a potential alienation of some 400,000 votes, on a peninsula (and the nation’s fourth largest state) that ended up deciding the 2000 presidential race by a mere 537 ballots. In addition, some state party leaders tell TIME they privately estimate the Dem dysfunction will cost them at least 1% of Florida’s sizeable chunk of independent voters, who number more than 2 million, or almost a fifth of the state’s electorate.

    Anyone with a brain larger than a green pea knew this whole charade was a terrible idea to begin with:

    Those risks were already apparent when Dean and the DNC made their original fateful decision. Last May, Republican Florida Governor Charlie Crist and the state’s G.O.P.-controlled legislature — fed up with what they call an absurd presidential primary process that gives small states like Iowa and New Hampshire inordinate clout — decided to leapfrog Florida’s primary from March to Jan. 29. The move violated Democratic as well as Republican party rules, but many if not most Florida Democrats also supported it. Still, the DNC ruled that all 210 of Florida’s Democratic nominating delegates would be annulled.

    Until proven wrong, I will maintain that the Democratic Party is ruled by saboteurs and f@#&ing idiots.

  35. holy hemiola! SUSA is the gold standard of polls too. So, how do we account for Clinton beating McCain by 13 points? I know she’s a better candidate but do you think some people think she and Bill got a rotten deal the fisrt time around?

  36. rd, that’s simple: women and Democrats. Hillary is doubling McCain among women while Obama has a much smaller lead. and hillary gets 12% more Dems than Obama does (who loses 25%).

    I wouldn’t put much stock in that SUSA poll though. There is no way that hillary loses by 16% amongst Hispanics.

    You gotta hand it to Obama supporters’ herculean efforts to defy reality, though. For someone who is supposed to unite the country, he’s not really well liked amongst his own Party. and those feelings are starting to set in more and expand. But hey, if it’s on TV, it must be true.

  37. That SUSA result is for Massachusetts.

    But the MyDD analysis of OH/PA demographics that UpstateNY linked above is definitely worth a look.

  38. What about this one???

    By Gary Reese
    Florida Insider
    March 20, 2008 — Barack Obama’s speech about race on Tuesday impressed many who witnessed it or read it. But most of America did neither, and many of them — white and black — were less persuaded of the speech’s capacity to heal racial wounds, or to put the issue of race behind Obama as he continues his quest for the White House.
    That’s according to a new poll by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion.

    First, we screened poll respondents to find those who were aware that Obama’s pastor was in the news. A startling 82% knew about Obama’s speech, and about the controversy surrounding the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Of those who knew about the controversy and the speech, we asked, “Taking all this into account, are you more or less likely to support Obama for president?”

    Less likely (52%)
    More likely (19%)
    About the same (27%)
    No opinion (2%)

    The poll was conducted March 19 among 1,051 Americans. After filtering out those not aware of Rev. Wright and Obama’s speech about him, the sample is 807, for a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2%. The data have been weighted for age, race, gender and partisan affiliation.
    http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_320_294.aspx

  39. ronk, the interesting thing about the PA analysis is that it doesn’t take into account possible losses stemming from the Wright-flap.

  40. gqm: One of the commenters also noted that Allegheny county could be a challenge for Clinton. In the Oakland section of Pittsburgh are Carnegie-Mellon U, University of Pittslburgh (my alma mater), Carlow College, Duquesne U and one other college whose name escapes me. It’s a huge concentration of potentially lethal Obamaphiles.

  41. Drat–just lost my comment by pushing my mouse around —

    Bill Moyers’ Journal tonight is about “Body of War,” a documentary co-directed by Phil Donahue and a young woman doc end filmmaker.

    It is gripping -horrible-enraging-human-incredibly sad-very uplifting.

    A young man joined the Army on 9/13/01 to go fight the terrorists in Afghanistan–and was sent to Iraq instead. Bullet paralyzed him on his 5th day there (iirc).

    Right now there’s a scene where this Iraq vet talks to a Viet Nam vet who was paralyzed. The older vet spent a year in hospital, then had outpatient work for another 9 months. The Iraq vet was in hospital overall for (oh, memory don’t fail me now!) one and a half or two and a half months–no PT, on morphine, just kind of warehoused. He weaned himself from the morphine and has tried to get more PT, but didn’t do well for quite awhile.

    Kid wanted a poitical movie! God bless him and help him. (and us)

    Please, do not miss this–usually rebroadcast around NYC metro area on CH. 13-check locally. Or watch on PC.

    Donahue is fierce tonight. The doc must be something else.

  42. OMG! The doc has clips from Dear Leader asking for war and the various senators and reps–all repeating the talking points from Bush and the WH!!

    Donahue says it was a bumper sticker debate–except for crusty old Byrd–pointing at the C-Span camera and demanding that the people rise up and protest this war resolution.

    (Oh, Hillary–I was so sorry to see you vote yes. I heard your caveats, your statement of principle. And I understand the pressure… but…damn. And, of course, the vote was carefully timed to be 3 weeks before the November election.)

  43. Arrrrghhhrrrr@#$$&%^!!! Fergawdsake!!!

    As dumb a candidate as Richardson was, he seems to be a very quick study.
    (“Repeat after me: Hillary is a racist, her people are racist, they play the race card against Obama’s whose sole purpose on earth is to bring us together”) You’re asking how long it took?

    In an interview about his endorsement today of Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson seemed to suggest that he didn’t like what he was hearing — some of it race-related — from the Clinton campaign.

    “I resent the fact that the Clinton people are now saying that my endorsement is too late because I only can help with Texans — with Texas and Hispanics, implying that that’s my only value,” he told CNN’s John King, as noticed by ABC News’ most excellent Jennifer Parker. “You know, that’s typical of some of his advisers that kind of turned me off. And I see a positive thrust by Senator Obama and his people and want to bring the country together.”

    What was the purpose of “the greatest speech ever” again? I can’t believe anybody fell for that dog and pony show.

  44. It’s a huge concentration of potentially lethal Obamaphiles.
    Chatham?
    They used to be all women…..

  45. Puerto Rico’s Dem Party Chairman, Roberto Pratts, is a strong supporter of Sen. Clinton (and current superdelegate for Clinton). When you listen to the explanation from Pratts, it just screams of an opportunity for people to get mad about the possibility of Puerto Rico rescheduling:

    Prats said the contest has long been scheduled for June 1 and he attributed erroneous reports that list June 7 as the date to a typing mistake in a document sent to the national party.

    Already there are some skeptics out there. Granted, Puerto Rico’s governor is an Obama supporter. But the odd timing of schedule change (someone in the Puerto Rican Democratic Party just recently discovered this issue?), the incredible importance that the contest could carry with it and other oddities associated with the switch, may very well make the newly announced Puerto Rico primary tomorrow’s outrage.

    One last note, there is zero truth to this primary being a winner-take-all; delegates will be apportioned proportionally. However, as I discussed in our most recent podcast, it seems to me that the Clinton campaign is going to become increasingly focused on closing the popular vote total, so the changeover to a primary could aide them more in that quest, which is currently covered less than the delegate race.
    http://2008central.net/2008/03/18/tomorrows-outrage-today-puerto-ricos-primary-shuffle/

  46. Anibal Acevedo, the Governor of Puerto Rico, has endorsed Obama:
    As one of eight superdelegates from the island, Acevedo casts one of Puerto Rico’s 63 votes at the Democratic convention. The other 55 are apportioned based on the results of the island’s June 7 primary. Will the other superdelegates from Puerto Rico go with Obama? Not quite
    He [chairman of the Puerto Rican Democratic Party Roberto Prats] tells me that he and two other Puerto Rican superdelegates have declared their support for Clinton. But that still leaves 59 other delegates (56 of whom will be elected under proportional representation rules) up for grabs.
    http://faustasblog.com/2008/03/desperation-and-puerto-rico-primary.html

  47. rd, I’m not so worried. Really. I’ve been immersed in campus organizing for about 5 years now and PA has issues that complicates the college vote: A 30 day registration deadline. Some of the other states had pretty relaxed rules, particularly the caucus states. (I’m personally in favor of same-day registration and detest the deadlines and have lobbied for same-day registration for general elections.) That will cause a drop in the number of out of state voters at the universities. Also, I’d be willing to bet that students who grew up in PA (and hence much more likely to be registered) resemble much more closely their overall state voting patterns. Not exactly, but much more so than out of staters. (See: CA)

    Remember NH? Everyone was expecting Obama to come back and win based off the univ. precincts after he got behind in the returns early. While he won there, he didn’t dominate enough.

    OK, before getting carried away I’ll stop. Someone needs to have a drink for me.

  48. The feds are investigating the Puerto Rican governor on corruption charges (if I’m not mistaken), and BTD over at Talk Left, a Puerto Rican, said the PR governor is not popular on the island. Here’s an article on the governor of Puerto Rico:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/24/us/24sanjuan.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

    “The governor’s endorsement of Senator Barack Obama, Democrat of Illinois, earlier this month also generated a whirlwind of theories about how it might affect both men’s campaigns.

    Some people speculated that the Obama campaign, mindful of the cloud hanging over Mr. Acevedo’s head, might distance itself from the governor. Others contended that the governor, betting on an Obama victory in the primaries and in the general election, was laying the groundwork for help from the White House should he be indicted.”

  49. I’m having a drink for you gqmartinez. Glad I could help. 🙂

  50. You keep it up! Hillary is not giving up and neither am I!
    For a candidate who is supposed to be so smart, with a lot of college educated supporters, he just doesn’t seem to be very good at the math that counts!
    The Obama campaign is trying to get her to drop out because they are afraid, very afraid, of the upcoming results in PA .
    No way should she drop out!

  51. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/23750513#23750513

    Video of Bill Richardson’s appearance on KO–about 7:30 he says it’s time to stop the primary fight–bcz of “the cat fighting.”

    How often is a fight between men described as a “cat fight”?

    Am I beingn too sensitive?

  52. I wrote to the party to let them know I did not want FL and MI disenfranchised. Can you imagine if those were Obama delegates at stake? It’s OK to disenfranchise voters for the woman in the contest. It’s 1868 all over again and women are left out of the equality ring.

  53. Jawbone, I don’t think Hillary was bowing to pressure in her AUMF vote. I think she was doing what seemed best to solve the problem: ie give Powell a bargaining chip with the UN to continue to push for inspections.

    Please see quotes from David Brooks and others at my site,
    http://www.ironmyvote.com/Iraq-2002-vote.htm

    She sought a third way: more U.N. resolutions, more inspections, more diplomacy, with the threat of force reserved as a last resort. She was triangulating, but the Senate resolution offered her a binary choice. She voted yes in order to give Powell bipartisan leverage at the U.N.

  54. If Obama makes it onto that November ballot, I just won’t vote. I had initially said I would cross over to the “dark side” and vote McCain, but since he seems to think he can lift this all by himself, I’m going to work my ass off for Hillary until the very end and if she is denied that nomination, I’m hoping that the rest of my fellow Hillary supporters will give him their asses to kiss as well.

    I’ve taken to watching nothing but Fox News to get more fair coverage of all of this and that’s as much of the “dark side” as I can take, but my nerves are not as rattled as they had been mere weeks ago when I was watching MSNBC and CNN on a regular basis. I would recommend the rest of you do the same (tune out of those pigs at MSNBC and CNN). Trust me, within a few days, you will see things so much more clearly. A friend of mine calls me after she’s gotten herself all worked up and worried after watching Tweety or Olberman and I just don’t even answer during the hours when their shows are on, because I don’t want her to darken my mood.

    I believe wholeheartedly that Hillary will get that nomination and she will ultimately win the White House.

  55. Great writing Riverdaughter. I plan on staying completely focused on helping and supporting Hillary in anyway that I can.

  56. FL and MI being disenfranchised is so deeply shocking. Every day I can’t believe a new revote date hasn’t been set and this crime goes on and on.

    Hillary needs to throw that right back to anyone who suggests she drop out. The same people who want her out, want millions of votes out of the process too.
    Any time dropping out is brought up, bring up FLA & MI

    And If Barry cannot take Hillary heat, how can he take Macain GOP heat? I have to think he’s not suppose to win the GE…just stop Hillary. The Dem elite has to know BO can’t win the white house. They must want Macain for one reason or another.

  57. Great piece.

    But, please, stop dumping on the haka. You’re totally misreading its cultural significance. Yikes. Don’t do that. Thanks.

  58. Sugar, on March 22nd, 2008 at 1:04 am Said:

    If Obama makes it onto that November ballot, I just won’t vote.
    _____

    I will because I won’t let the Republican party trash the US any more than it already has. I am not an Obama fan. I can’t even stand his voice but if you’re a Democrat then you vote for the candidate with the D after their name. The alternative is worse.

    Not only do we need a Dem to pick the next Supreme Court Candidates, but after working in DC for two years (quit my job due to non-job related circumstances) I know that we need a Dem Cabinet also. I’m just not going to like pulling that lever with him name on it that’s all.

  59. Not voting for Obama under any circumstances.

  60. That MyDD diary is definitely worth a read. Glad to see I probably am from what he’d call “Hillary-billy” territory (Maryland, just about 20 miles south of rural western PA). 🙂

  61. “if you’re a Democrat then you vote for the candidate with the D after their name”

    I suspect an awful lot of Democrats are going to be ex-Democrats if the MI and FL delegations aren’t seated.

  62. Great post. I’m disgusted with my own party. Can’t believe I thought Dr Dean would be good for the DNC. I will never vote for McCain but if Obama gets the nomination I will vote for Ralph Nader!

  63. “if you’re a Democrat then you vote for the candidate with the D after their name”

    Because of this election, I really don’t feel that the Democratic party is any more interested in the tenets of democracy than the Republicans are. How could I after MI and FL? And I don’t trust Obama’s Supreme Court choices any more than I trust Republicans’. He’ll do whatever pandering he feels gets him the farthest, and he’s shown that throwing my issues under the bus is fine with him.

    And imagine Obama-Kerry-Kennedy with Pelosi and Reid. I think the damage of that trifecta to the Democratic party will live beyond my lifetime! And if Obama wins the election, Dean will definitely keep his job. He doesn’t deserve to.

    I have no issue with abstaining from the presidential election.

    This is actually healthy for me personally, since now, I don’t have to get upset when the Republicans win again…which they will if the tainted Obama is nominated.

    Could Rove have prayed for a better election outcome?

    BayArea, you could either vote Nader or write in Hillary. The latter is my choice.

  64. Thanks for this article. With all of the distortions and lies that are being published in the press it is nice to read a nice sane post. I appreciate it.

  65. […] says the refusal to allow the FL and MI delegates to be seated artificially inflates the clout of the smaller states – and Obama’s […]

  66. Hillary ceded 12 contests in a row including swing states wisconisn, Virginia.

    Losing Louisiana
    Needing Nebraska
    Shipwrecked in Virgin Islands
    Wanting in Washington
    Mediocre in Maine
    Destroyed in DC
    Mauled in Maryland
    Vanquished in Virginia
    Halted In Hawaii
    Wiped out in Wisconsin

    All told a 130 delegate swing and a hole she can’t dig out of. You can say the states don’t matter but that’s pretty ridculous in a delegate race (as Penn and Wolfson dubbed it). VA and WI are primary states likely to be in play in the general as well.

    Whether she can get the nomination or not she has actually run a mediocre campaign mired with the same big electoral state strategy that has failed the DEMS in the past 2 generals. It was a great styrategy for Edwards, Biden and Richardson but not great for an Obama who could rack up the south AND caucuses to go along with his primaries.

    When she had no post-Super tuesday strategy she gave it away as shown above. At minimum she made it politically implausible to pull it off. IT’s broken and cannot be fixed unless she WINS and wins big in remainning contests including PA, IN and NC.

    Obama’s winning nearly every caucus is not the fault of caucuses its the fault of the Clinton campaign stragegy as well. Similary, Obama is not the cause of MI FL. IT is what it is and the delegates will be seated but will NOT determine the outcome. sadbuttrue
    Obama no more needs to encourage and support revotes than a team ahead with time running out needs to pay for time being added to the clock. after all he’s not an idiot looking to EASE her only opportunity for winning

    While she can and should go on until it is clear politically that the superdelegates are more concerned with the party than the Clinton/Obama saga.

    What I mean by that is that the most loyal Obama supporters just happen to be THE MOST loyal DEMS bar none. You can’t tear apart a party to get Clinton on the top and that is just becoming a reality. You can disagree but it’s sadbuttrue reality.

    Forget who wins in November for a minute. Do the superdelegates really want to turn Blacks (and the wave of new young DEM voters) into independents for a decade?

    Nope. Sadbuttrue…had she won a few freaking caucuses and we would not be having this situation to worry about. Obama in the same position as Clinton would already be out with a rush of superdelegates sealing it for Clinton.

    She can hang on to superdelegate hope for reversing a pledged delegate lead but the reality it they just won;t be able to pull the trigger politically for Clinton due to the long term “sake of the party”.

    The lack of a caucus and post super tuesday strategy were fatal…period. Reminds me of Gore not winning TN and making the more difficult FL a “So what” state.

    What’s prehaps more disappointing is realizing that there was such an anybody but Hillary mentality within the non female electorate, that once Obama got going she never even caught him.

    again sadbuttrue

  67. It ain’t over till it’s over. I want to believe that, but I have to admit it’s discouraging at times. Especially right now when it seems like every news station, radio station and the Obama camp keep going on about the math involved in delegates and how Hillary can’t catch up or surpass him.

    Enough! It’s madness. Obama could win the nomination and go on to lose the general election. I have friends who voted Obama in primaries prior to the Rev Wright news. Admittedly, they were swept up in the change frenzy. Now they have serious buyers remorse. They would not vote for him again.

    They can’t be the only ones who feel this way. I don’t think the primary votes will hold up in the general election now that the Rev. Wright problem is out there.

    It’s so frustrating, if the Rev Wright problem had been known at the start of the primary season, we might have a completely different situation with Hillary on top.

    OK, so what if Hillary can’t get the nomination, should she drop out? I don’t think so. I was talking with friends about this last night and we stumbled upon a crazy idea I want to mention- maybe Hillary should run as an Independent if she can’t get the nomination. What do you think?

    I’d vote for her and I’m sure many others would too. If the Democrats think Obama can win a general election they’ve lost their minds. I say Hillary is the best choice out there.

    She should set herself up as an Independent and run as a candidate offering a new choice.

  68. Pray and Meditate for Hillary

    I’m calling for another pray or meditate time for Hillary on Sunday March 23 at 6:00 pm PST. Pray, meditate, light candles, reach out to the spiritual world in any way that is right for you.

    Please pass this message on.

    Peace and thanks.

  69. Teresa2, on March 22nd, 2008 at 4:11 am Said:
    “if you’re a Democrat then you vote for the candidate with the D after their name”

    ______

    I can certainly understand how you feel. I feel disgusted and demoralized at times but I really believe the alternative is worse.

    I never thought that I would get so distraught with this primary but I am. I was a member of the “no bleeping way Obama” brigade until I read Anglachel’s post “Liberal Democrats and Jacobins”. After reading that article I decided that I would suck it up, vote Dem, then try and take the party to task for their screw ups.

    http://anglachelg.blogspot.com/2008/02/netroots-liberal-democrats-and-jacobins.html

  70. Well, Sen. Clinton actually has an excellent Plan B strategy whether she gets the nom or not. But hang on…re: automatic delegates.

    Sen. Obama’s campaign could implode. I don’t just mean more scandal crap, but people wake up to his campaign’s nastiness. This morning, CNN carried an Obama event in which one of his supporters cpompared Bill Clinton with Joe McCarthy.

    So if you question Sen. Obama’s policies, candidacy, or choice of associates, you are, 1) stupid, 2) racist, 3) McCarthy, or 4) all of the above. Wow. So this is what a positive campaign looks like.

    And it’s a great way to ask for my vote.

    Frankly, he can ride his Unity pony straight to hell for all I care. Here are the directions: Just cross my street to the meth house, take a right past the people who are already losing their jobs, and straight on till morning.

    Be sure to tuck some of your cronies in the handbasket in case you want to give a speech.

    For the record, I have tried my best to not call anyone names because, while often quite amusing, it doesn’t help me remember that these are public servants who are doing a job I could never do. But this McCarthy thing is so shitty. And Obama stood there onstage listening to this crap.

    Anyway, Sen. Clinton’s Plan B could mean she negotiates to get not only a panel for universal healthcare, but requires public support from Sen. Obama to back her initiative. Basically, he must base his presidency on her initiative.

    The junior senator from New York has vision. It’s just not limited to hoping she can unite the country to move all her luggage into the White House. She sees the big picture for all of us and she will yield to the forces of the moment to achieve that vision.

    sadbuttrue, I think your analysis is correct, but I don’t agree with your statement: “What I mean by that is that the most loyal Obama supporters just happen to be THE MOST loyal DEMS bar none. You can’t tear apart a party to get Clinton on the top and that is just becoming a reality.”

    They are the most loyal _Obama_ supporters. Two different things. While I would agree that in the great Venn diagram of Demo demographics, there’s a lot of crossover, a lot of folks don’t fit in both camps.

  71. “the same big electoral state strategy that has failed the DEMS in the past 2 generals”

    Look, the Democrats are not going to win Alaska, okay? They’re just not. They need to concentrate on states they can win. With Obama, that’s not FL, not Michigan, not Ohio. Are you a Republican straetgist or something? Democrats don’t have unlimited money and there’s not a whole hell of a point wasting it in a state they can never ever win.

    “What I mean by that is that the most loyal Obama supporters just happen to be THE MOST loyal DEMS bar none”

    Most loyal or most numerically significant? Aren’t about 60% of the voters in this party women? This party is already being torn apart, and we’re going to lose women, the elderly, Latinos. Obama’s voters would vote for Hillary. Hers won’t in far larger numbers right now, and he;s at the top of his support. Placating ‘loyal voters’ by running a disastrous campign with a horrendous candidate doesn’t seem like a smart move. You undertand why African American voters might be angry, well women aren’ too happy at this grossly sexist campaign, and there are a hell of a lot more of them, In order to win, we need to increase turnout among women, Latinos, and blue collar workers. Well, we will all right, but those votes will go to Mccain. African Americans are the only group in teh party Obama appeals to. We’ll lose Latinos for a decade mot to Independent but to the Republicans. We’ll further depress turnout among our most numerically significant group. I you think young voters will bring this over the top, ask Kerry how many of teh millions of young voters who signed up actually bothered to vote.

    ‘Obama no more needs to encourage and support revotes’

    Fine, but be honest about it. Don’t talk crap about change and New Politics. Obama needs to just stand up and say hey look, you know I’ve got no accomplishments and no policy expertise, but I’ve also got no principles. Democracy is a bunch of bs. You’ve got no right to vote if you don’t vote for me. I’m here to represent dirty Chicago style politics. Principles are for chumps, and the only difference between the parties is who gets the spoils. I got “no reason” to do the right thing when I can make a damn mockery of everything this party stands for and get away with it.

    they just won;t be able to pull the trigger politically for Clinton due to the long term “sake of the party”.

    Right, ‘the sake of the party.’ Now how does an insane, undemocratic power grab the arrogance of which would make GWB blush help the party? How does nominating a guaranteed Nov loser help the party? The party is being destroyed by the incompetence and arrigance of the idiots running it who are out o destroy the Cllintons and take the party down with them. They’re not giving one thought to teh ‘sake of the party’ unless you’re talking about the Republican Party.

    “within the non female electorate”

    You mean within the party hierarchy. Pesky thing, but she just keeps winning all those states where people live, and just about every catergory of Dems. An awful lot of Obama support in the .00000006% turnout caucus states seems to be Republicans.

  72. the same big electoral state strategy that has failed the DEMS in the past 2 generals”

    Look, the Democrats are not going to win Alaska, okay? They’re just not. They need to concentrate on states they can win. With Obama, that’s not FL, not Michigan, not Ohio. Are you a Republican straetgist or something?
    >>>>>

    that’s really funny analysis in my opinion. Nobody is talking about Obama winning alaska in the general. However the Hillary strategy RELIES on winning Florida in the general. So if Hillary does not win Florida the same electoral strategy will fail …again.

    IF you think Obama will not win Michigan but Clinton will you are kidding youself in my opinion. And this dispassion of blacks will simply kill CLinton in Michigan. (aka for democrats in the general elections Detroit and 44% uncommitted)

    The bottom line is her chances appear no better than his UNLESS she wins FL. A big twice failed IF recently. (or once if you know what I mean)

    However look at Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexixo, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Virginia. These are NOT Alsaka and Obama polls WAAAYYY better than CLinton in them versus McCain. We’ll see how much the pastor changes that I guess but for now its a fact..

    Superdelegates read these tea leaves ya know.

    My point is the strategy you outline is fair and familar in its ineffectiveness. Are you a failed democratic strategist or something? just kidding back.

    Kerry won PA and MI but lost FL and OH. game over. Gore lost Florida too. Clinotn has a chance in FL but when MccAin picks Gov. Crist as Veep neither Obama nor Clinton will have a shot there in my opinion. Florida will be like Alsaka using your analogy.

    While I am not a republican strategist I can tell you how easy it is to beat a strategy that relies hevaily on Florida. …..AGAIN Pick Crist; game over.

    Obama challenges the map in ways Hillary simply cannot.

    Iowa/ Which the DEMS lost
    Obama 51%
    McCain 41%

    McCain 52%
    Clinton 41%

    Virginia/Which DEMS could put in play with Obama
    but not Clinton

    McCain 45%
    Obama 51%

    McCain 48%
    Clinton 45%

    Wisconsin/eerliy similar polling to Virginia except Keery actulally squeaked by there

    McCain 42%
    Obama 52%

    McCain 49%
    Clinton 42%

    WHat I see in the large SUSA 50 state poll is actually quite disturbing for the prospect of Hillary even holding some of the blue states DEMS have won. Particularly Oregon and Washington

    Oregon
    McCain 48%
    Clinton 43%

    Obama 49%
    McCain 41%

    Washington

    McCain 46%
    Clinton 44%

    Obama 52%
    McCain 38%

    so even if Hillary won Ohio it would not matter electorally if she turned around and lost Washington and Oregon. She would still need Florida (aka Alaska with Crist on the ticket).

    Obama on the other hand could lose Florida AND Ohio and PA or NJ and STILL win. He would need to hold Michigan (very blue despite your contentions, take Iowa (polls way ahead), and either PA or NJ. He would not even need both.

    That’s because unlike Hillary he is very likely to win the non alaska contests of Nevada and Colorodo and maybe even Virginia.

    Colorado
    McCain 48%
    Clinton 42%

    Obama 50%
    McCain 41%

    Virginia
    McCain 50%
    Clinton 40%

    McCain 47%
    Obama 47%

    Nevada
    McCain 49%
    Clinton 41%

    Obama 46%
    McCain 41%

    The map game is very different and it does not rely on winning red states..just some already close swing states starting to tilt

    If Hillary got the delegate lead or the popular vote lead she could probably get the nomination. She won;t have either though. The popular vote basically ignores votes in caucuses because its not reported (and like you point out over represents the popular vote). WHile caucuses are flawed Clinton has no excuse for fairing so poorly in them other than not even trying. In fact her dissing of the red states/caucuses is consistent with congressional people in those states running as far away from CLinton as possible in November if she is the nominee.

    If women do not support the delegate leader and popular vote leader I think its a little different than if Blacks are upset that the vote leader and delegate leader does not get the nomination. A lot of people see it that way. The DEMS have a problem either way though which is why unity should come sooner than later in my opinion.

    Is it easier to convince women that the process was based on the vote (sans MI and FL) or to convince the nation that having superdelegates reverse the pledged delegate lead and popular vote lead is the way to go?

    >>>>

    WASHINGTON — A majority of Democratic voters say it would be unfair for Hillary Rodham Clinton to win the presidential nomination through the support of “super delegates” if she lags among the convention delegates elected in primaries and caucuses, according to a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll.

    If that happens, one in five say they wouldn’t vote for the New York senator in the general election.

    >>>

    Maybe they are all men and blacks I dunno. Blame the media I suppose but that poll is a real problem wouldn;t yoou agree?

    I agree HIllary would make a fine President but I do not think she can win from her position. I also believe Obama will be a fine Prsident and that he CAN win. Whether we agree or not is not the issue but the superdelegates are looking at states like CO, OR, VA, WA, and IA and seeing that Clinton could do much worse than Obama electorally if she cannot pull off FLorida.

    In addition they see the heavy reliance on the FL strategy can be toppled withthe VEEP. It’s all too familiar and risking the new voters and blacks is not going to be what they choose with such a shaky scenario. If superdelgatrs thought HIllary was a slam dunk they would be endorsing her NOW. DUH.

    I understand the risk with women but it is also interesting that despite the decided gender tilt in democratic population HIllary is NOT ahead in the nominating process. Quite simply that reliance on women worsens in the general which is also reflected in sexist polls.

    i understand advocate positions for her and think HIllary has fougth a pretty good fight . I just think she has lost the fight with a “lightning in a bottle” candidate and its time to win the white house if possible.

    >>>How does nominating a guaranteed Nov loser help the party?>>>

    Well I disagree with your guarantee but I suppose I’ll take a stab.

    This is actually an interesting question. Recall that Mr. Clinton saw the party go into decline despite winning the white house. His re-election was a guarantee but it actually HURT the party. Go figure.

    Now the party is on the rise despite NOT being in the White house. The answer to your question is down ticket and new voters. The new voters Obama brings will tilt the house and senate races regadless of who wins the white house.

    One reason superdelegates in red states like Obama is that he offers an non polarizing top of the ticket message. So the quetion does not become can Obama win ALaska or Kansas for example …it becomes can dems win seats in AK< KS, ND etc. With new voters they can.

    Change Clinton and Obama seek require greater congressional advantages than exist. With Obama it could happen. With Clinton it would not. At minimum the GOP hates the Obama candidacy for this reason. The RNC forsees defending purple seats all over the map if Obama is the top of the ticket. With Clinton they do not fear this.

    We shall see.

    I find it disturbing that the Clinton crowd (of which I once was) is just as anti-Obama as the Obama crowd (aka KOS nation and the like) is anti CLinton. We all need to wake up and get behind the winner in my opinion. Unfortunately in this discussion we simply disagree on who that is. THough there does not appear to be much disagreement on who will have the pledged delegate lead.

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