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Hmmm, here’s an interesting theory

Venice1789 at MyDD says that Obama will drop out before June. It doesn’t sound like just wishful thinking either. Here are the money quotes:

Some argue that the Wright debacle has had no impact and that the media has already moved on. But the truth is, these kinds of things work slowly on the consciousness. They linger even after the public discussion has faded; they seep in and they influence opinion sliently over time. And since race is an issue few people discuss openly because of the PC police and self-censorship, it will be especially true in this case. The test will com in PA and the states after. If his support among whites dries up then we know that this made a big difference. And that is what will swing the superdelgates in the end. Slowly this will make him unelectable against McCain even if the math is on his side a tthe moment. And, remember, despite what Pelosi and others say now, in the end this is not about the math. The supers were put there precisely for this purpose: to stop the nomination going to an unelectable insurgent who misled the American people early on in the campaign. The supers are there to correct just this sort of thing, and they will.

I think there is more than a nugget of truth in this. It takes a little bit of time for the thoughts and attitudes to take shape in the mind. The situation has to present itself several times to make an impression and it has to be discussed before the person “owns” it. That’s how Obama’s negative campaigning on DailyKos got to be so successful. You have literally thousands of people hearing a repeating the same lies and innuendos. But I digress. A lot of people in PA who thought that Obama was an African-American who they could feel confidence in and with whom they felt they could move past the politics of racial resentment, will feel hurt and betrayed by his pastor’s remarks. Obama knew about the pastor’s rhetoric last year but kept him onboard the campaign as a spiritual advisor. Pennsylvanians are going to wonder whether his spiritual advice was more like MLK’s or Malcolm X. If PA goes overwhelmingly for Clinton, it will send a signal that the end for Obama approacheth. I suspect that last week Clinton would have won PA comfortably. Now, I think we can expect a painfully lopsided victory for her. I see my fam next week at Easter and I’ll have a better idea then.

Then there’s this:

As this Wright controversary sinks into the American consciousness, the backlash will grow stronger. Presently, the meme coming out of camp Obama is that Hillary is the one trying to “steal” the nomination from him since he has the most pledged delegates etc. But my prediction is that as this Wright debacle sinks in, coupled with Michelle Obama’s anti-American diatribes…

Every day it appears more and more that Obama got as far as he did in this race by lying to the American people about his policy positions (re: his plan to withdraw from Iraq, NAFTA) and by misrepresenting himself as “post-racial” and such.

The best thing he could do at this point is to drop out and to strongly urge his “supporters” to back the true Democrat in this race: Hillary.

Well, that last sentence is certainly a twist, isn’t it? Let’s hope he takes the advice before he is trounced and humiliated.

39 Responses

  1. A John Edwards endorsement forthcoming??? This is a rumor from other blogs, and I found the transcript from The Chris Matthews Show.

    Richard Stengel, managing editor of TIME Magazine, said that Mark Halperin (also of TIME) said John Edwards will endorse Hillary before the NC primary. Just a rumor though but this is the type of rumor I like.

    http://www.thechrismatthewsshow.com/html/transcript/index.php

    “MATTHEWS: Richard Stengel?

    Mr. STENGEL: John Edwards. Senator John Edwards–remember him?–who’s been
    conspicuously silent since he dropped out of the race, will endorse a
    Democratic candidate probably before North Carolina, certainly before North
    Carolina, possible before Pennsylvania. And our own Mark Halpern on the page
    says it’s going to be Senator Hillary Clinton.”

  2. And, riverdaughter — what about Indiana. I’m stuck at work so I can’t do the research. But, I thought Indiana was leaning Obama? Will that hold with these revelations?

    Obama announced a speech for tomorrow. I’m trying to remember if a speech has ever saved one of these (potential) stampedes? And what he could possibly say to make it worth the risk to nominate him.

    Just this morning I had a conversation with my Dad where he mentioned that he’s hoping the Super Delegates save us from a serious mistake.

  3. Kbird: I don’t know much about Indiana except that Orville Reddenbacher is from there and Hoosiers stands for “Who’s your Momma? Daddy?”, as in who are your kin folk. I get some high powered ultra right wing talk radio station from Fort Wayne right here in NJ. I have no idea what to expect from Indiana. Will Obama have a geographical advantage? Probably. Will PA have an effect on the remaining races? If the win is lopsided enough, probably.
    We’ll see.

  4. The reason why Obamabots think Indiana is leaning Obamabots think Indiana is leaning his way is because of a Howey Gauge poll from Feb. 17th with Obama supposedly leading Hillary 40-25% with a whopping 35% undecided. This is way back in mid February after the Potomac primaries.

    http://www.howeypolitics.com/2008/02/26/howey-gauge-poll-feb-16-17-2008/

    Hillary does have the support of Sen. Bayh and the chairman of the Indiana Democratic Party. We’ll have to wait for other polling to see which way the state is leaning.

    From demographics, the state’s African American population is at 9%. But there’s lots of working class and rural whites as well. Northwest Indiana is part Chicagoland though but I don’t know what effect that will have (Gary, IN notwithstanding) Its a toss up state for now until polling comes in.

  5. The African American number in Indiana pales in comparison to Southern State percentages btw (usually 20% of the population or more in the South).

  6. WS, that doesn’t sound like typical Obama country. I wonder if it’s another example of how they don’t control expectations well?

    riverdaughter, this is a good think piece. And it fits into something I’m working on for later.

  7. WS:

    How come you missed the most “important” part of that goat’s vomit of a show? Thank god Bob Somerby watches these morons carefully so that we don’t have to:

    DEFINING WRIGHT AND WRONG: For better or worse, at least for a while, we may have our first major “Teflon Democrat.” On yesterday’s Chris Matthews Show, this was the entire discussion of Jeremiah Wright. Matthews questioned Time’s Rick Stengel:

    MATTHEWS (3/16/08): And now, to that very aggressive, angry speech by the, by the pastor, pastor Jeremiah Wright, who married Michelle and Barack Obama, who christened their kids, a very close relationship with him. That very strong-minded speech there. Basically almost–he made the point. But what do you make of the past tapes that have been coming out about him?

    STENGEL: Well, it’s interesting. In a general way, Barack has been so successful as positioning himself as this post-racial candidate, this post-identity politics candidate that we’re shocked and surprised when he turns out to be a black man, and that he actually has relationships with people that go back into his past. That has been what has been so pernicious in a way about the Gerry Ferraro comment. It’s like saying Secretariat wouldn’t have won the Kentucky Derby if he wasn’t a horse. Well, of course Barack is, Barack is who he is, and he’s been successful being–for who he is, because he is a black man who has triumphed over these racial politics. And the Clinton folks are trying to bring him back down to earth by reminding people and saying, “He’s just a black man after all.”

    That was the program’s sole exchange on this topic. Ladies and gentlemen, Stengel’s a pro! By his third sentence, he had turned the Wright matter into a slam against Ferraro and “the Clinton folks.” In his next question, Matthews moved to another topic. Wright was never mentioned again—though Matthews played tape, at some length, at several junctures, of Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky.

    When it comes to political coverage, that’s the definition of “Teflon.

  8. Katiebird,

    I grew up in Indiana, and my parents and some other family members still live there. My mom says Obama will win there, because everyone hates the Clintons (she is voting for Hillary though). But this Rev. Wright mess may change that. It would be great if Hillary could win Indiana. I’ll keep an eye on what’s happening there.

  9. BostonB, has your mom seen the tapes yet? I’m dying to know how people I’m not related to view them.

  10. Kbird: Cool! Can’t wait to read it.

  11. Katiebird,

    Yes, she’s seen it. I had told her about Obama’s church a long time ago, anyway. My parents are as left-wing as I am and pretty much agree with me that a lot of the stuff Wright said about 9/11 and so on isn’t that shocking. My dad was a college prof., now retired.

    But Wright’s rants won’t go over well with the “hillbillies,” as my sister calls the rural folks. I agree with WS that Indiana actually should be fertile territory for Hillary. The part of the state my parents live in is very industrial. When I was a kid (early ’60s) a lot of my classmates’ dads worked in car part factories that fed into Detroit. It’s been tough there for years with the failure of American car companies, but a new Honda factory started up near my hometown recently. I doubt if they like NAFTA much. I was actually surprised when I heard that Obama was ahead there.

    I hope Hillary is going to go to Indiana. It seems that Obama has pretty much ceded PA and has moved out to try to win more red states that will never go Democratic in the fall.

  12. Obama is supposed to be making a speech on race tomorrow. I don’t know whether it will address Wright’s sermons specifically, or whether it is part of a long held plan to speak about race in America.

    Either way, I hope it is not part of a plan to once again accuse the Clinton campaign of playing the race card.

    I remember when Michelle Obama was criticized a few weeks ago for saying that it was the first time in her adult life that she had been proud of America. Some schmundit (I think it was John McLaughlin) asked someone on his panel whether Mrs. Obama was a “radical black nationalist.” The notion seemed ridiculous to me — even though I thought her words were ill-considered and politically naive, and even though I was getting flak for saying so on the Orange Place That Must Not Be Named. The fact was that, out of any kind of context, her words sounded clumsy to me, and aberrational.

    I don’t know how different Wright’s sermons are from what you might hear in other African-American churches across the country. People like to think of African-American churches as institutions where everyone is joyful, singing beautiful hymns and talking about the Promised Land, rather than angry. But it doesn’t surprise me that there would be anger in such churches. African-Americans have a lot to be angry about. So I am not sure that Rev. Wright is the issue on which I would want to have Obama’s campaign founder. I would much rather have it be health care, or national security, or fiscal policy — anything other than something that requires a charged debate about theology in African-American churches.

    On the other hand, it sounds to me like Obama isn’t being entirely candid about what he knew about Wright’s sermons on these subjects. Obama’s assertion that he had never been in church when Wright gave one of these sermons struck me as too similar to the challenge Gary Hart made to journalists in 1988: if you think I am cheating on my wife, follow me. They did, right to the Monkey Business and Donna Rice in his lap.

    Ordinarily, church attendance would not constitute the sort of scandal that is usually engendered by a the discovery of a nubile young woman on a middle-aged politician’s lap or in his hotel room. But if it turns out that there is evidence that Obama was present for some of those sermons…he may be in more trouble politically than he would be for being caught on the Monkey Business. And even if he wasn’t present, given his professed close relationship with Wright, it is possible he didn’t know Wright’s views?

    You can love and respect your pastor without agreeing with him/her on all issues. (I liked my Roman Catholic pastor even though I disagreed with virtually all RC teachings on sexuality and marriage, and rolled my eyes during pre-Cana “natural family planning” classes.) But the more Obama backpedals on Wright, the more trouble he may find himself in.

    Tomorrow’s speech will be interesting.

  13. On MI revote, Jennifer Granholm asks:

    Barack what say you?

    Any more excuses?

  14. MABlue: LOL! the first thing that came to my mind was Aragorn asking the dead warriors to fulfill their oaths. “What say you?!” Will Obama fulfill his oaths to take Democratic voters seriously? And if he won’t now, should we expect anything different after he is elected? Oooo, someone should write a post on that! That is, someone other than me.

  15. lmom: Barack is formidable in front of a teleprompter. I am sure that with the help of the MSM everything will be fine and Hillary will be exposed for the racist monster she is (or whatever nonsense she will be accused of this week).

    I have been wondering if this will be the Romney & Mormonism speech/moment for Barack

  16. Argrrrr@#$&%#*!!!

    On the other hand I don’t like THIS.

    It gives Nancy Pelosi, Donna Brazil, a copout.

    Maybe Al Sharpton will file a lawsuit.

    (Lemme smash my head against the glass door in my office)

  17. I do think Hillary can win Indiana. Here’s Indiana’s Presidential election history:

    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/pre/IN/history.html

    http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/pres/1996.txt

    Bill Clinton lost to Dole in Indiana by 5 points (47-42) and 119,000 vote deficit. Gore lost 57-41%/ a little over 500,000 vote deficit and Kerry lost 60-39%/ a little over 520,000 vote deficit.

    Is anti-Clintonism more perception than reality? Also, the Indiana primary is a modified primary not an open primary.

  18. I don’t think race is, or should be, the dynamic here. This episode is important not because it shows that Obama has any sympathy to the Afrocentrics of Resentment, but because it shows that he is a calculating politico who thinks only of the impression he leaves, even when it comes to something (supposedly) as central to one’s identity as religion. (I added the “supposedly” because I have no empathetic understanding of the religious impulse!) If that’s the case, he loses the aura he has enjoyed vs. that fallen creature HRC, and if it’s just issues and competence, he’s screwed.

  19. MAblue,
    I don’t think that’s a negative (FL). By the time June comes out, Dems will probably be begging for Florida to be counted. It’s really hard to justify not seating FL as is. And since Obama was dragging his feet and showing reluctance, it will go to him to show that FL shouldn’t be counted. That’s a lose-lose situation.

  20. No re-vote for Florida.

    http://thepage.time.com/2008/03/17/florida-democrats-there-will-be-no-revote/

    This is not good. It means a fight to seat the Florida delegation as is, which is the right result, but will never happen. We’ll end up with some ridiculous, meaningless compromise like “split the delegates 50-50,” which is like nullifying the primary results altogether. The best “compromise” we could get would be to give each delegate elected on January 29 only 1/2 of a vote, so the delegate vote totals will be proportional to the primary results.

    Ugh.

  21. WS,

    You’re saying you think Indiana might go for a Democrat in the general election? That would be amazing if it happened. The last time Indiana voted for a Democratic presidential candidate was in 1964 when LBJ won in a landslide. For some reason Indiana has had a lot of Democratic Senators, but rarely do they vote Democratic for President.

  22. BB: Oh no, I meant Hillary can beat Obama in IN. Lets worry about the general election when we get there.

  23. Oh, OK. I would love if if Hillary won the nomination in IN. My mom would be thrilled too.

  24. There is no way a 50-50 split of FL will happen. That’s the same as not counting them at all.

  25. Oh for god’s sake. How can we justify giving MI a revte and not FL? “Uh, sorry, but the pools are stronger for The Annointed in MI. Start supporting our guy if you wnat to be counted, FL.”

  26. I think Sen. Nelson’s idea was a 50% penalty in delegates with Hillary gaining 19 delegates based on the Jan. 29th result. The Republicans also gave a 50% penalty to their Florida delegates until McCain sowed up the nomination and gave them full representation.

  27. Indiana’s May 6 event is an open primary, meaning R’s and I’s can vote with the D’s. Also all but one Congressional District allocate even numbers of delegates, meaning you must roll up big margins (17 to 25%) to avoid 50/50 delegate splits.

    If Hillary is looking strong, R’s will cross over to undermine her. Maybe vice-versa if Obama is leading.

    Not a good chance to capture delegates, nor a good test of voter sentiment (though the exit polls may be interesting).

  28. It says here IN is a modified primary.

    http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/IN-D.phtml

    NC is a modified primary too.

  29. Obama will speak to race issues tomorrow. I think he’s got as much mileage out of race-baiting as he’s going to get (90% of blacks and 70% of holier-than-thou white elites who assume it’s up to them to make up for everybody else’s racism).

    So from here it mostly splashes back on him, but … its one of those distractions that can eat up a few days of news cycle without going anywhere.

    It’ll be interesting if he tries to dance some kind of “high road” dance, rising above it all or calling a truce. (That’d be like the GOP calling for upperdown votes on judges, after they’d secured control of the judicial branch by blockading Clinton’s picks.

    If he proposes a “let’s turn the page – quick!” nonaggression pact, watch out. I do worry the Clintons have played some of these exchanges too soft already.

  30. Ronk,

    But aren’t they districts in which Obama can get lots of votes, and hence net delegates?

    Hillary really needs a lot of presence in virtually every remaining primary.

  31. ghost2 — I don’t picture either candidate finishing far above centerline in Indiana, popular or delegate-wise.

    Obama would have to really crash … and if he does, the superD’s will be already know it.

  32. From the U.S. Census bureau:
    http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/facts_for_features_special_editions/010969.html

    37% =
    Percentage of Mississippi’s population that is black, highest of any state. Blacks also make up more than a quarter of the population in Louisiana (32 percent), Georgia (30 percent), Maryland (30 percent), South Carolina (29 percent) and Alabama (27 percent). They comprise 57 percent of the population in the District of Columbia. Source: Population estimates

  33. Obama continues to make this about race. Many people were upset by his pastor’s comments because they thought they were unpatriotic. I don’t need him to give me a speech about race. For race relations to succeed, both parties have to trust each other and believe the other person accepts you based on your actions not the color of your skin. He has affected my level of trust.

  34. This is a good list of the remaining states with open/closed/modified primaries from a mydd diary (pre OH and TX)

    http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/23/141926/758

    From Opandora’s list excluding March 4th states:

    Closed/Modified Primaries

    22-Apr Pennsylvania CLOSED 188
    6-May Indiana Modified 84
    6-May North Carolina Modified 134
    13-May West Viriginia Modified 39
    20-May Kentucky CLOSED 60
    20-May Oregon CLOSED 65
    2-Jun South Dakota CLOSED 23
    7-Jun Puerto Rico CLOSED 55

    Open primaries

    3-Jun Montana OPEN 24

    (3 – Jun Michigan revote (assuming it will be like the last primary)

    Last Caucus (closed)

    3 – May Guam

  35. Well, if the clock’s running down on the news cycles and the super D’s need information, what can we do? Where do we start? (By the way, riverdaughter/goldberry – it is so nice to have a place on the internets to have a normal discussion. I forgot what it was like, actually.)

    I was just reading a (problematic, let’s say..) hit diary on Michelle Obama over at MyDD, mentioning some of the things she’s said to voters on the trail about what they should do, how hard life is, etc. Nothing grave. I also recall thinking it was a little strange reading about Obama also speaking to a group of voters, it was recently – Texas maybe – that was again a rather weird talk about how they should live, teach your children like this, etc. What is this for? Is this more than accidental? I was reading a piece the other day about his community organizing work..

    http://www.nhi.org/online/issues/149/obama.html

    “What if a politician were to see his job as that of an organizer,” he told reporter Hank De Zutter in a 1995 article in the Chicago Reader, “as part teacher and part advocate, one who does not sell voters short but who educates them about the real choices before them? As an elected public official, for instance, I could bring church and community leaders together easier than I could as a community organizer or lawyer. We would come together to form concrete economic development strategies, take advantage of existing laws and structures, and create bridges and bonds within all sectors of the community. We must form grassroots structures that would hold me and other elected officials more accountable for their actions.” As a politician, he has not always fulfilled those lofty ideals, but they still animate his presidential campaign.

  36. Thanks Riverdaughter for “reprinting” the MyDD post by (I guess) a diarist who predicts that Obama will withdraw before June. I’m guessing, because I could not find it on MyDD. It’s gone. It exists only in your citation. Must be something sensitive happening behind the scenes over there.

    I’m conflicted about the Wright business. I liked the response from his church, and I can sympathize because I’ve heard black militant rhetoric for years, and his charges are quite understandable. And it seems that my fervent hope that the story did not come from the Clinton campaign is the truth. No Clinton fingerprints, just lazy corporate journalism, which is no surprise.

    OTOH, you don’t necessarily get your justice from the predictable places. I have been offended that Obama’s campaign deliberately manufactured a race issue with their hysterical whining over distorted and out-of-context complaints about the Clintons’ remarks. Neither President nor Senator Clinton deserved that. The Clintons began with 80-90% approval from African American voters, and even with the understandable appeal of a charismatic African American candidate, I believe Obama would have captured at best 50-60% of their votes, leaving substantial Clinton support in that community. But that was evidently not good enough for the Obama campaign. To get 90% of the AA vote, they needed to denigrate both Clintons as closet racists, which Obama and his supporters did early and often. The Wright business is unrelated and, if it breaks the Obama candidacy, undeserved – but they did deserve it for injecting race (and sex, but that’s another post) into the campaign in the first place.

  37. Brownell: You’re right, it’s what Homer Simpson called “stupid poetic justice.” Obama racialized the campaign, so there’s something delicious about Mr. Inevitable being derailed (whether it’s for good or just for a moment remains to be seen) by a racial kerfluffle that’s not quite as bogus as what he invented in South Carolina.

    I think this is when he’s supposed to send Samantha Power to see the Israeli Ambassador and tell him (her?) that there’s no cause for concern.

  38. At Balloon Juice, John Cole interpreted a Ron Fournier article at Yahoo News accusing Obama of arrogance to mean that Fournier was calling Obama an “Uppity Negro.”

    The title of Cole’s post is “Uppity Negro Alert.”

    I thought this was very ironic because Cole thinks Hillary and her supporters blame all criticism on sexism and always “play the victim card.”

    Apparently all criticism of Obama is racist.

  39. And Fox News (I know, I know) has just reported that Al Sharpton and Obama have at least 3 conversations per week. What does that tell you? Sharpton is the biggest race baiter going and it seems as though he is giving advice to Barack. Don’t think too many people will be thrilled to hear that along with the Rev Wright’s speeches. By the way, the latest video on Fox News (I know, I know) shows the reverend shouting sh*t from the altar. Nice place to bring the kids don’t you think. This is bleeding already.

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