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SUSA Survey of the General Election: Both Dems beat McCain

You can get all the gory details at TalkingPointsMemo. One interesting thing that Josh notes is that Obama wins but he loses PA, NJ and FL. He would have *never* guessed that a Dem could lose NJ. For someone living here who has seen two moderate Republican governors come and go it seems perfectly reasonable. (I’m not surprised that Josh is surprised tho’. He really needs to get his head out of his @$$ in Manhattan and visit the Garden State once in awhile. We’re only a couple of PATH train stops away.)

Anyway, that’s how the maps look NOW, before the media, McCain and the $250 Million dollar Freedom’s March 527 Ad campaign gets started. After that happens, will Obama be able to afford blowing off PA, NJ and FL? Hmmm, I’m betting on Hillary to be able to beat McCain because after all, the PR can’t get much worse for Hillary and she carries those missing states easily.

39 Responses

  1. Do we always have to cross the ocean to find smart people writing for newspapers?

    “They must go for Hillary Clinton
    Forget all the razzmatazz over Obama. The Democrats have only one option for president”

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article3492457.ece

  2. Good analysis. Thanks for the link MABlue.

    I keep hearing how D. Brazile is threatening to leave the Democratic party if it comes to SDelegates choosing the nominee…..

    Hey, maybe we can win Tennesse this year if she does leave? 🙂

  3. Keep an eye on for best-of-breed interpretation. Darryl does Monte Carlo analyses treating each state poll as a Gaussian estimate of voter preference for that state … aggregated to estimate each matchup’s percentage chances of victory

    He’s never had a set of same day, same instrument data to work with. Stay tuned!

  4. Monte Carlo with Metropolis algorithm?

  5. Pls. don’t make me go over to the dark side at TPM. It used to be a site that I visited, but I have given it up for Lent and beyond.

  6. Wow!

    I sure feel “hopeful” about this new “kind of politics”.

    And these are the people complaining about vile Hillary running a freaking ad against His Awesomeness?

    http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/latestnews/Inside-US-poll-battle-as.3854371.jp

  7. I do not know if FL and MI were open or closed primaries, but if there is a need for a re-do, I would propose that they are closed.
    At least that way it would be a fully Democratic affair, without outside interference.

    What a mess.

  8. I am so disappointed in Josh. He was one of the best. I always contributed to his site when he seemed to be struggling. Boy was that a lost cause. I guess the award he received for breaking USA stories went to his head..Too bad he drank the kool aid. Kos also has the Napoleon syndrone. Since he landed a job at Newsweek, he thinks he is big time. I can’t wait to see all these twits rendered irrelevant.

  9. Petition Alert: Howard Dean Should Resign!
    http://www.thepetitionsite.com/65/petition-for-howard-dean-to-resign-

  10. I posted this same thing at TaylorMarsh.com. I normally don’t like posting verbatim, but it’s something near and dear to my heart…

    OT, but an article I wrote for a campus publication apparently set a record for first day hits as well as the single day hit record. If you want to, you know, show some love you can click the link. It was written before the “claws” and “periodically” comment but you can get the gist. It was also edited for length and some of the more nerdy discussion of negative affect was cut out.

    If you all can help get the number up, more people on this campus will take notice. Also, it may get play over at campusprogress.org, which gives us money for our publication.

    Thanks folks!

  11. yeah, the Scotsman article was pretty unbelievable! WTF

  12. MAblue, I read your link.
    Now…where do I get my “I’m voting for the monster“ bumper stiker? …heh, heh, heh

  13. MAblue,

    I can’t believe that Scotsman article! Samantha Power sounds just like a Kos diarist. Did she really think it was a good idea to put all that catty stuff out there? I can’t wait until Hillary’s campaign responds. Hillary is a “monster”? Jesus. I hope she beats the crap out of “The Precious.” After reading that, I would have a very hard time accepting him as VP.

  14. Ok, this makes me feel better. The Chairman of the Michigan Dem Party said any compromise has to be okayed by all interested parties (Michigan Dem Party, DNC, Clinton, Obama). No Caucuses! Get Private Donor Support for a New Primary!

    Samantha Power should be fired. When Billy Shaheen spoke disapprovingly of Obama, he got fired. Obama should do the same or is this part of the new politics of hope?

  15. Obama damn well better fire Power. She is a lot more important to him than Shaheen was to Hillary, but that was totally out of line. I’m really getting sick and tired of this crap from Obama. I would be very surprised if this doesn’t turn off a lot of core Democratic voters. These people are so incredibly arrogant that they don’t even understand how they come across to the rest of us.

  16. How dare that vile witch Hillary Clinton run against Obama?

    It’s only about the most powerful, most important, most prestigious job in the world. Why would Hillary Clinton be so ambitious, so reckless, so bloodthirsty to compete against Obama and actually make the case that SHE is better qualified? Yuk!

    How far would she go? This woman will do anything to ascend to that job even if nobody will give it to her.

    Doesn’t she know Obama is INSPIRATIONAL and TRANSFORMATIONAL?

    Why is she competing against him? Why would she do stuff like running and ad?

    What a “monster”.

    *vastleft over at Corrente had 2 sensational posts summarizing how Obama supporters feel about Hillary (and that was before she won OH and TX).

    Start with this about that putrid Jon Alter’s article:

    http://www.correntewire.com/found_near_dumpster_behind_newsweek_offices

    And this: http://www.correntewire.com/hillarys_offensive

  17. What Samantha really meant was…blah, blah, blah

  18. Well at least we now know what they call Clinton around the Obama headquarters. Not that it wasn’t obvious before from the comments made by Michelle Obama and her brother, whatever his name is. I also believe that these comments create more resentment for Clinton in the African American community. When Obama has 90% of AAs voting for him and his wife and family members say these things about Clinton it resonates all throughout the black community. I am half black so I belong to an AA group on my campus. The anti-Hillary Clinton stuff sent on that email list has spiked considerably and a lot of it is borderline sexist and even racist. Many comments center around the myth that Clinton is a monster, a racist, a white b*tch who is ruining the chances of the first black man who has come this close to becoming president. I know it’s impossible for Clinton to accuse Obama of reverse racism but his words and Michelle’s words and the words of his top advisors matter a lot. What if this had come from the Clinton campaign? The term “monster” would be associated with racism if it had been used to describe Obama. He needs to watch it.

  19. Sorry, I ran away earlier without realizing I busted theh link to Hominid Views: Hominid Views.

    Metropolis? No. No chaining of states (in the Markov sense, not the geo sense). Darryl could build an even better estimator by accoiunting for correlation between states, but his mojo is good enough for government work — and better than anything else I’ve seen published in this race.

  20. RonK: No, I meant Metropolis algorithm in the “Travelling Salesman” heuristics meaning of the world.

  21. Oh, dear! It sounds like both Ms Power and Mr Goolsbee have committed diplomatic faux pas.

    Perhaps that’s why the old, failed, conventional diplomacy finds its agents taking great care what they say, and to whom they say it.

    I’m a Samantha Power fan, but I’m afraid she’s devalued her currency.

  22. johnny,

    Olympia Dukakis is not Mike’s wife. Are you from the National Enquirer or something? McCain has been operated on 3 times for melanoma and he’s had that tumor in his cheek for a long time. He’s not dying as far as I know.

  23. gqm — what a very fine young man you are, and what a great article you have written. Now would you analyze what has really been bothering me about this campaign — why so many women are participating in the attacks.

  24. johnnypeepers, I wouldn’t worry about McCain’s health if I were you — you really should be more concerned about that really bad case of Obamalaria that has affected your brain.

  25. DNC logic 101:

    – Hillary Clinton wins NJ (by 11), a must-win, large state, currently Blue. At the same time Obama wins ID, a useless (well I’m sorry), small, WILL-BE Red State. As result Obama nets 1 delegate.

    – Piss of MI and FL, 2 crucial large states, currently purple but moving towards D, a combined 43 electoral votes, to suck up to IA and NH, purple states currently purple, with a combined 11 electoral votes.

    J. Robert Oppenheimer is running the Democratic Party.

    Why oh why, am I doing this to myself?

  26. rd, did you *really* just mention the Metropolis Algorithm? I knew there was a reason I thought you were so cool. Haha.

    MM, I have asked a lot of young women for whom Hillary “rubs them the wrong way” and can’t get a good answer beyond emotion. I can’t get a rational answer.

  27. Hey, Oppenheimer was a brilliant man who was constantly screwed by conservative, war mongering, short-sighted jerks. History has proven Oppenheimer to be much more correct than his detractors. Also, he liked to host people for martinis!

  28. gq;

    I am a big Oppenheimer fan.

    I was saying that with this logic, you can see that a genius a running the DNC.

  29. So I’ve been out all evening and started to watch the midnight rerun of KO. I know, I should know better. Old habits die hard. Anyway, he was on a blistering attack on Clinton from the get-go, calling her a “Lieberman Republican.” Huh, I says to myself., thems fightin’ words.

    What set him off is a statement by HRC that both she and McCain had passed the “commander in chief” threshold, but questioned whether Obama had. I found KO’s ensuing rant so over-the-top offensive that i had to turn it off (this now happens at least 50% of the time now, why do I keep tuning in). But I do have a question.

    As much as I think Clinton would make a better commander in chief than Obama, I would have preferred she not compare McCain favorably to Obama. If Obama turns out to be the nominee (not what I want), I want HIM to win the GE, not McSame, and I don’t want to hear that comment played back over and over by McSame as an “endorsement” by Hillary.

    This isn’t about liking or defending Obama. It’s about not giving McCain a weapon with her name on it to bludgeon Obama with if he gets the nomination.

    Am I the only one here who thinks that this was a bad move on her part?

  30. litigatormom: The Obamabots will obviously use this to say Clinton endorsed McCain. I think what she said made sense. You need someone just as qualified and experienced as McCain to be the Democratic nominee. I personally will not be voting for Obama even if he wins the nomination so I guess I really don’t care what McCain uses against him in the general. I won’t be voting for McCain either. I’ll be writing in Hillary so she has my vote no matter what happens.
    But no, I don’t think it was a bad move. It will make Obamabots angry but it will make undecided voters and people who aren’t sure about Obama think about their decision.

  31. litigatormom:

    I have heard people bellyaching about that for the last couple of days, but it doesn’t phase me the least.

    Obama has thrown enough stuff out there against Hillary that could be used by the RW; from Hillary being “disinginous” to being “willing to do and say anything” to win, in addition to what his campaign throws at her daily.

    The French say, A la guerre, come a la guerre, which means, in time of war, it’s time of war.

  32. MABlue: Don’t forget the latest comment by Obama’s senior foreign policy advisor that Hillary Clinton is a “monster”.

  33. Hey Goldberry. Sorry — Riverdaughter. Sorry for the off-topic post. Up early and just found your site. Nice to see a place to retreat from the vitriol at DKos. Is there a Tom Bombadil around here? Just wondering.

  34. litigatormom: I don’t think it was a bad move as much as a very bold one. She’s already said she is open to a joint ticket with Obama with her in the top spot. That primes the public for seeing him as the junior politician. The CIC comment just continues with that idea. She wants to keep separating him from the top tier and condition the public to accept a Clinton vs McCain battle in the fall, no children allowed. Oh sure, she’ll get flack from the bloggy side but most voters in PA aren’t paying attention to that. She might also be targeting WY, home of The Dick.

  35. G’Morning.

    I just read that Paul maybe getting out of the reace. Will his supporters join Obama?

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080307/ap_on_el_pr/paul

  36. Frankly, I’m sick of all this *Hillary must not criticize Obama lest the republicans use that in the GE* stuff. The thought of the republicans having to get their campaign material from Hillary is laughable. Hillary teaching Rove how to criticize Obama is like that old saying about teaching your grandmother how to suck eggs.

  37. Interrupted again last night.

    , we’re talking about the same Metropolis, and no, Darryl’s work is more brute-force bootstrap.

    His results are up now, btw, and strongly favor Obama. That’s the breaks of the datacrunching game.

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