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SUSA Survey of the General Election: Both Dems beat McCain

You can get all the gory details at TalkingPointsMemo. One interesting thing that Josh notes is that Obama wins but he loses PA, NJ and FL. He would have *never* guessed that a Dem could lose NJ. For someone living here who has seen two moderate Republican governors come and go it seems perfectly reasonable. (I’m not surprised that Josh is surprised tho’. He really needs to get his head out of his @$$ in Manhattan and visit the Garden State once in awhile. We’re only a couple of PATH train stops away.)

Anyway, that’s how the maps look NOW, before the media, McCain and the $250 Million dollar Freedom’s March 527 Ad campaign gets started. After that happens, will Obama be able to afford blowing off PA, NJ and FL? Hmmm, I’m betting on Hillary to be able to beat McCain because after all, the PR can’t get much worse for Hillary and she carries those missing states easily.

A Modest Proposal

This has nothing to do with eating your young even if that is what we are eventually reduced to.

The voters of Florida are innocent parties to this dispute. The Florida Democratic party can’t afford to shell out money for another primary. Howard Dean is an @$$hole with his latest “What do you expect ME to do about it?” statement. And the rest of the Big D states are held hostage to Obama and his supporters desire to win by suppressing the vote. Caucuses in a state as large as Florida are out of the question, not to mention unrepresentative of the population at large.

So, here is my compromise for getting Florida seated (Michigan can follow this example but I would definitely go with a do-over there without an option).

Present the following choice to the candidates and let them decide to either:

a,) Both candidates agree to waive The RULZ and accept the Florida delegation as is and without penalty, recognizing that the voters were not responsible for disenfranchising themselves. (this will soothe hurt feelings) or

b,) Have a do-over mail-in primary *paid for by the candidate who refuses option a*.

Michigan: The primary must be redone so have both candidates split the cost of the mail-in primary.
If I were Howard Dean, this is the way I would go. Yes, it requires a bit of leadership and impartiality. No, I don’t expect him to do it.

It’s not about popularity vs numbers. It’s about “hard” vs “easy”.

I’ve heard enough about the delegate numbers and the popular vote. People who go on about these things as if they are meaningful are deliberately ignoring reality and what voters are starting to see. Hillary wins the do-or-die states. They’re difficult and the odds are against her but she still manages to win them. Obama wins the low-hanging fruit. Now, people may legitimately argue that those states count too. But in many of the states he’s won, it has been by overwhelming the traditional regular Democratic voters in a caucus situation. And we have gone over the reasons why caucuses tend not to be representative of Democratic will. They exclude the people most likely to vote for Hillary: the shiftworker, the caretakers, the rushed and hurried mothers who can’t spend several hours at a caucus. Think about that for a sec. Obama is trying to ride to glory on the basis of exclusive caucuses. The young and the DINKs turn out in record numbers. The rest of us can kiss off.

But my point is that primaries in the big D and swing states are not easy to win. Even with all of the loads of cash that Obama has poured into them, he hasn’t been able to swing it. But Hillary has won these difficult states and in several cases, by double digits. If the delegate mathematicians think that has escaped the voters’ attention, they are dreaming. When Hillary won OH and the TX primary, she moved way ahead of Obama in the mental math of most voters. She *is* the presumptive nominee now. The only way Obama can win this is by suppressing voters, either by caucuses or by making sure Florida doesn’t get a seat at the table where it will count for anything. The fact that neither one of them have enough votes to win outright does not change this perception.

She won the tough ones. She’s going to win the other biggies and do well in the remaining *primaries* because people want an end to all of this and they’ll turn out for her to finish it. She’s proven herself and overcome adversity with hard work and grace, She’s the one.

One more thing: It looks like I’m not the only one who thinks Hillary is the one.  Here is a piece from the Timesonline (Britain) that makes essentially the same point.  I’m not saying that Barry can’t make a comeback but the switch in the minds of the remaining voters is probably already thrown for Hillary.

For those of you who are interested, here is the map of the primaries so far from the NYTimes.

electoralcollege2004-large.png

Howard Dean gives CA, NJ, NY, MA, OH, TX, voters the finger

Yup, that’s what it feels like to this New Jersey voter for Clinton. By stubbornly and *selectively* enforcing “the RULZ!” for Florida and MI and no other jump-ahead early voting state, he is removing the critical mass that the rest of the Clinton voters need to put her ahead and help resolve this whole thing. He is suppressing not only Floridians but New Jerseyans and Californians and New Yorkers by artificially inflating Obama’s vote totals.

If you’re in one of these states and you don’t particularly like Howard and Donna putting their thumbs on the scale for Obama, maybe it’s time you made sure they remember you’re out here and you’re still watching. Because if Obama wins the nomination because Howard and Donna managed to negate more than half of the Democratic electorate in a manner that is outrageously reminiscent of the Presidential election of 2000, there will be hell to pay. Denver will be full of very unhappy Bennies and Shoobies being their obnoxious selves and crashing the party with loud abrasive New Jersey and New York accents.

Let your state party know how you feel about Howard and Donna’s voter suppression. As Anglachel says:

The Florida and Michigan delegates are not being seated because they would allow Hillary to win. Period. Unlike the first two issues, which are structural, this one is political. In a pathetic attempt to stack the primary season for John Edwards, the DNC shoved these two, must-win states out in the cold, probably figuring they would fall in line and support the eventual nominee and all damage could be fixed before the convention…. Something I have not seen discussed much in the blogosphere, in great part because voters who support Hillary are not seen as having cast legitimate votes, is that Florida knows it is the king-maker in this convention, and it damn well is not going to revote. In this game of chicken, Howard Dean loses. “The rules” aren’t going to count for squat when Florida demands to be seated. If Obama’s forces refuse to seat Florida for the sole purpose of denying Hillary delegates, he will lose Florida in the general, and probably Michigan, too, and there goes the election. To try to wrangle a win out of a convention that does not seat Florida and Michigan is to lose massive amounts of legitimacy. Do you think my mother-in-law and all her senior female friends who turned out en masse to vote for Hillary in Florida are going to vote for Obama after he denies FL a voice at the convention?

Yes, that’s exactly what it feels like. The “white male graduate student” bloggers and Howard and Donna have decided that votes for Clinton are somehow illegitimate. They decided ahead of time thatEdwards or Barry would be the nominee so we never did count. Was there pressure applied to delegitimize Florida and Michigan last summer? Were they not cut a break? What kind of choices were given that made “The RULZ” what they are?

It reminds me of what happened to me when I was trollstormed off DailyKos. Markos said he would reinstate after the primaries. Like somehow in a rigged game of musical chairs, my chair was removed and I am no longer allowed to play the game. Such is the case with Clinton. Her candidacy is completely irrelevant to them. She merely gets in the way and makes the first round of the game last longer that it should. So, they rigorously enforce the RULZ! so she can’t play anymore. And Markos and the others just assume that the rest of us who lost out in the first round because of their game rigging are going to be cool with the outcome. We’ll join in later after *they’ve* decided. Well, it’s not just MI and FL. There are all of the millions of the rest of us who are not giving up our chair simply because The Precious was able to score in Idaho and Utah.

Well, if this is not a scenario to your liking, why let Jennifer Granholm and the head of the Florida Democratic party go it alone? Call your local powerbrokers and let them know how you feel. Tell them that you want to fire Howard Dean and Donna Brazile. There are more of us Big State voters than there are Big Box Store bloggers and nutty Obamaphiles. In New Jersey and New York, governors Corzine and Spitzer might be a good place to start. In OH, Ted Strickland. In CA, try Diane Feinstein. In MA, Barney Frank. Find your state party chairmen and pound them with email and phone calls and tell them you will not be ignored. Because if Florida and Michigan don’t count, none of US do either.