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So, did anything happen last night?

Oh, yeah. Neener-Neener-Neeeeeeeennnnerrr!

I would personally like to thank all of the Republicans who overcame partisanship and voted FOR Hillary because of who she is and what she stands for.

Now, the delegate math might not have shifted much but the mental math certainly has. I’m going to work my ass off for Hillary in PA and so are my mother, my aunts and my sister. We are going to make history because we have the best candidate.

All the Big Blog Stores and the pundits can spew whatever crap they want. They are not seeing what the rest of the country is seeing. The media has lost credibility and people are paying attention to what the candidates say and their resiliency in the face of adversity. And what can we expect at the convention? Here are some possibilities:

  • The superdelegates will have the final word and they’re going to be looking at who won the most Democratic votes, who won the popular vote and most importantly, who won the most crucial states. The electoral college map will become very important. And that leads to…
  • Florida and Michigan. Now, the DNC and the Obama campaign want do-overs (hmmm, a common interest?). I’m all for a do-over in Michigan. Hillary’s name was the only one on the ballot and voters felt a little cheated so, fine, have a mail-in primary. She’s got her footing back, she can win MI or at least come close. But Florida? I see no reason to redo Florida. Neither candidate was *supposed* to campaign there, but in fact Obama spent $1.4 M on cable TV ads and who knows what else. Clinton had a couple of fundraisers. In any case, she won a solid victory and that isn’t going to change. The Obamaphiles can scream do-over all they want but the reality is this: making Florida do a primary again is very expensive for a state this size. The money wasted on one would impact other races in congressional districts and would take away funds for the general. The voters have spoken, decisively. They want their votes counted as they stand without having to go through the motions. For the Obamaphiles to insist on a do-over in Florida is something they have not asked of any other state that has run a contested primary. The only reason to ask for it is if there is some expectation that the vote will change, assuming the voters didn’t know what they were doing because they didn’t have the benefit of obnoxious campaigning. I think that will backfire badly on Obama. It would be like saying, “I’m going to make you spend money to vote again. Did you REALLY want Hillary to win?” And insisting upon a pointless primary because “they violated the RULZ!”, looks petty and spiteful, considering that NH, IA and SC broke them too and didn’t suffer. It smacks of voter suppression and when it comes to Florida, you don’t want to go there. Florida adds a critical mass to Clinton’s column and leaving it out diminishes the voters of NY, CA, NJ, MA, AZ, TX, OH. That’s one set of constituents that no one can afford to diss going into the fall campaign. The Florida dilemma is a no win for Obama but it could be worse if Floridians vote to blame him for it. The only outcome I can see from a do-over is that Obama will have proven conclusively that he alone of all primary candidates is capable of losing in Florida- twice. Bite the bullet, Barry. Urge the DNC to seat Florida without any pre-conditions. It’s the only way to keep Floridians from turning their backs on the Democratic party in disgust this fall.

Now, I am not going to make any predictions about who will win the convention in August but Hillary has a much better case for taking it than Obama at this point, delegate math or not. And I think as her campaign further adjusts to its new environment, freeing itself from the past election strategies to take advantage of new technologies and outwitting the opponent in clever ways, she will do better in the remaining states.

It is not inevitable. It never was. But by August, no one will be able to say she didn’t earn it.

One more thing: I found this disturbing yesterday but merely amusing this morning. (Ok, it’s *still* disturbing) I find this line particularly funny:

But if she leaves after winning a couple states, she leaves on a high note, magnanimously ceding the race to the better candidate running the far better campaign.

So.lemme get this straight, if she *wins*, she should concede defeat and gracefully exit because she would have been beaten by the “far better campaign”. My, my, I guess Kos and I have different definitions of the characteristics of a “far better campaign”. Like winning big primary states, for example. Well, that was a good morning chuckle.

I think Kos even predicted that Clinton would lose Ohio or Texas by 15 points. It must have been my imagination though or one of those newfangled editors. They’re so tricksy and everything. Things just disappear from the posts. It’s like magic!

20 Responses

  1. Good morning!.

    What a night, eh?

    I am pleased with the results. This should give Hillary what she needed to try close the deal.

    It seems that Hillary has also somewhat closed the gap in the Texas caucauses (only 4 points difference this morning, vs 11 at some point yesterday night). Does anybody know what to expect ?

    Anyway, thank you for being there

  2. Ace Smith and Maggie Williams are miracle workers!!! I just wish Maggie Williams was her campaign manager all along.

    Also, Hillary is now ahead in the total popular vote with Michigan and Florida included.

  3. Riverdaughter: I totally agree with you about the difference between Michigan and Florida. You just can’t call Michigan a real win when she was the only one on the ballot. But Florida — they were all on the ballot, and Obama had the momentum of his big SC win going in. Hillary still won.

    Let’s not kid ourselves, despite yesterday’s great results, the MSM — not to mention Daily Obama — are going to do the best to minimize its significance. And there is still the matter of math: Hillary is still behind, and in light of the calendar will stay behind for a while. There were rumors floating around on TV last night that Obama has 50 superdelegates who have privately committed to him that he is going to “roll out” over time. It remains to be seen whether they are still committted to him this morning, but it’s important for Clinton to keep the numbers from changing in the wrong direction between now and PA.

    I am in awe of her determination and resolve in the face of the conventional wisdom and the polls.

  4. rd–

    Here are Markos’ predictions from yesterday:

    Ohio: Clinton +4
    Texas: Obama +12
    Rhode Island: Clinton +6
    Vermont: Obama +35

    Pretty far off, no?

    Despite the delegate numbers, it doesn’t look that good for Barack this morning. He is showing that he can’t close the deal, he can’t win the big states the Democrats will need in November, and he can’t win several core Democratic constituencies. It will be fun to watch the race in the weeks ahead.

  5. Also re: Markos:

    He posted in a comment that his ad revenues for Feb. were terrible and if he didn’t have a “cushion,” he would be struggling financially. He says that is because no one wants to look at ads that aren’t about the campaign. I wonder if that is the only reason?

  6. BB: Kos can’t say he wasn’t warned. Seriously, I pleaded with him last October to get a grip on the site and not let it slip into a lefty version of freeperdom but he just stood back and let it happen. Then he joined in. Just stoopid. Maybe he’ll have to take the bar exam or something.

  7. We should all know by now that these bloggers and these pundits on MSNBC don’t know shit. Now they are saying the 3am ad gave Clinton a win. Okay, maybe it helped a little but why isn’t anyone analyzing how Obama does in caucuses compared to big primaries and why? Why aren’t people talking about the voter intimidation shown at these caucuses by the Obama campaign yet they are calling Clinton the dirty politician? That 3am ad is nothing compared to disenfranchising voters which they will never own up to but this is the same ol’ Chicago style politics Obama has talked about being above all that. Yea, right.
    I agree we should not have to do a re-vote in FL. Frankly, it was Obama’s fault for taking his name off in MI but whatever, I’m willing to compromise to avoid an Obamabot riot. Even if they did a re-vote in both states, I’m confident that Hillary would still win both as long as it is a closed primary and not a fucking intimidating caucus again. We’ve caught on and know why this dude is where he is today. If every state had a primary where every voter could participate he’d be a goner.

  8. Another note, Scarborough is actually speaking the truth for once. He finally said that Obama also can’t get to the required delegate count to win the nomination. Seems like Republicans these days are making more sense than Obamabots. They will make anything up to make Clinton look like a loser. Obamabots are the new Rethuglicans!

  9. An important difference between FL and MI is that it was the Repub controlled legislature and the Repub governor who changed the primary voting date. Not the Dems.

    The FL Dem Party felt they had to take part in the primary bcz the ReThugs were also playing a referendum card (some nasty piece of work about taxes; did pass), and the Dems felt they had to get out the vote to have any chance of defeating it. So they could not drop out of the primary. Plus down ticket primaries would also have been affected.

    Simply on the logistical grounds, FL Dems did not bring this on themselves–it was forced on them by the ReThugs.

    Also, as riverdaughter pointed out, both Hillary and Obama (and others) competed on the ballot roughly equally (with the fillip that Obama did spend money in the state and ads were run as part of his national cable ad buys).

    Even with the threat of not having the Dem delegates seated, FL Dems turned out in record numbers to vote.

    Add in the history of the Supreme Court not allowing all the votes to be counted and there is a huge reason to let their people sit! The DNC and Dems cannot allow themselves to smushed into the “FL votes don’t need to be counted” camp.

    I had not thought of the impact on Obama himself if he’s the one making the state, strapped already and facing even lower revenues due to the ReThug insane tax cutting, spend money on another primary. IF the state would do that. Plus, once having voted and been counted, I cannot imagine FL regular Dem voters being very happy at being made to go through some caucus charade/gauntlet.

    Some retirees are very able bodied–many are not. Not a good thing to force elderly people to do. And I don’t think anyone wants the Dem Party to become the party of the young and fit–screw the less able bodied.

  10. Re: Number of delegates needed–need to get the numbers in my head.

    I wanted to check the maths this morning–the proportional system depends on having super delegates in case of something like this. It wasn’t just for the situation of a wildly popular but completely unelectable candidate making it through the primary.

  11. rd– I know, but Markos has never been all that mature, IMHO. I tend to ignore his writing, and have ever since the “sanctimonious women’s studies set” post. There is a diary up this morning calling out Kos on his irresponsibility toward the site, and that is where he posted about losing money on ads. Get this, he says he isn’t in this for the money. LOL!

  12. BB, do you ever look at DK anymore? I stopped about 6 weeks ago and went through withdrawal for a few days. Now I don’t think about it except when I read something somewhere else. My uid was in the 6000 range and I had been around forever but moving on was fairly easy. There are too many really good new sites to hang around where one is not welcome.

  13. Escoffier–

    I haven’t been going there much for the past 3 weeks or so. I hung on for awhile because I thought there needed to be some anti-Obama presence. But I realized it was pointless.

    Yesterday someone posted a Clinton diary link and I went into that. This morning I just took a at replies to my comments from yesterday and saw that diary that I mentioned. I am pretty much through with dkos, and would not be heartbroken to never go there again. I think they are self-destructing.

  14. I wrote to Kos about a month ago pleading for some intervention at the sight. His reply was a real brush-off: It’ll get better after primary season, what would you have me do right now. I suggested he get some more moderation on the site, or at least write a few exhortatory front page stories on the problem. No further reply. He needs to start asking himself whether the site still exist after primary season? I don’t know why he’s been so laissez-faire about it — his preference for Obama isn’t the only reason. I now he’s working on another book, but I’m surprised he wouldn’t be paying attention to the destruction of his site as a place for intelligent debate.

  15. I can’t spell this morning. Sorry.

  16. Procedure question: and request for help–

    If I leave the page to check, say, a link or google for something, I lose my comment. Is there a way to avoid that (other than pasting to a clipboard or something)?

    Thnx.

    I was looking for an interview I came across last week or weekend where Obama stated he was not going to run for president, that he felt he wasn’t ready, and needed to complete his commitment to IL voters to serve in the US Senate–published November ’06. I thought it was The New Yorker or New York Magazine.

    Anyone recall that?

  17. jawbone, use a new tab to open a google search. You don’t need to leave the page.

    I did see the interview that you are referring to. I think it was from the New Yorker.

  18. Hi All-
    I’m looking for VOLUNTEERS for HILLARY and we need you desperately. We are making sure Hillary is represented in online comment (you’d be surprised how many people read them!) in local papers in upcoming primary states. It’s a fairly big job –started (too late) in WI when we realized Obama supporters from DC were cutting and pasting into local WI papers–But did great in TX and OH –with 89 people saying “I’ve changed my mind I’m voting for Hill”.
    Anyway, if interested, please reply!
    WE NEED HELP!
    spega

  19. The media and big blogs fell down the rabbit hole.

  20. http://prohillary.wordpress.com/

    For those who need a little fresh air every once in a while, a collection of positive stuff!!
    Please help out!

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