From gqmartinez:
Quick update on Texas:
ARG has a new poll out showing Obama up by 8 points. There aren’t many useful internals. SurveyUSA will have a poll out tonight and I’ll give my take on that later. One thing to note, the last SurveyUSA poll had Hispanics making up 32% of the electorate and Black voters at 18%. ARG has 24-23 split. The other thing is that the SurveyUSA poll has Hillary winning Dems 55-41 and making up 78% of the electorate. SurveyUSA was dead on in CA because they nailed down the demographics. It will be useful to compare the new SurveyUSA numbers to the previous and to see if that reinforces the ARG numbers.
More later…
Filed under: Presidential Election 2008 | Tagged: ARG, gqmartinez, Texas |
The Confluence 
I was using a “different” email early on. I just recently changed it. This is the one to use. It may have gotten lost in the spam folder, but it wasn’t in the first hundred or so messages.
New Rasmussen poll from MyDD
Clinton 46
Obama 45
Things are getting tight in Texas and ARG sucks.
WS, that’s not enough. Does it include crossovers or just Dems? It looks way too tight. Was there no post debate bounce?
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/texas_democratic_presidential_primary
26% Hispanic
21% African American
Clinton viewed more favorably but 29% already voted and Rasmussen said Obama “wins handily ” among that group.
SUSA said 1 in 4 primary voters already voted but we don’t know who until tonight’s poll is released according to Burnt Orange Report.
Don’t forget to reread this post from eriposte. It shows how we can win in Texas: TURNOUT!!!!!
Forgot to add that among undecided Clinton is viewed more favorably according to Rasmussen.
One more thing. According to TIME, 65,000 people voted in the 15 most populous counties in Texas.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20080225/us_time/theclintonobamarodeolassoestexas
Oops, its 65,000 voted on the first day in the 15 most populous Texas counties.
New CNN poll, Obama up 50 to Clinton’s 46. They stressed thought that its in the margin error (so is the Rasmussen poll) and its statistically tied. Still, I’d like it to switch.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/25/texas.poll/index.html
From the article:
“The 2-point gain for Obama and the 4-point drop for Clinton are both within the poll’s sampling error, so although the survey appears to indicate some movement toward Obama, we cannot say for certain that he has gained any ground since last week,” said CNN polling director Keating Holland.
The Rasmussen poll has Hispanic participation down 5%. All polls seem to indicate Hillary will still get 65% of the Hispanic vote so that corresponds to a shift of over 3 points in the overall total. I would be surprised if Hispanic turnout decreases. There seems to be a huge interest in the Hispanic communities and Delores Huerta, Henry Cisneros and others have been in TX quite a bit. There is a lot of anecdotal evidence suggesting the Hispanic community is energized for Hillary. I hope that turns out accurate.
I read on Talk Left that March 4th is Spring Break week. I wonder how that affects the race?
Here’s what he/she said:
“it will be interesting to see how the youth vote turns out. If demographics hold, it seems that the weathier kids (supporting BO) have plans to go away, where the others may not be able to afford a vaca and/or still have to work that week. I mean, that’s possible”
Of course, these people could vote early but then again students aren’t that forward looking. Are they? I do hope working class students go out in force for Hill.
Oh wait, it looks like the week of March 4th isn’t Spring Break.