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I’ve Overestimated Chris Bowers’ Intelligence

Or has he underestimated ours?

From his post SuperTuesday analysis:

There are only two paths to the Democratic nomination now. One path, for Clinton, is based on her maintaining a tie or a narrow lead among pledged delegates, thus allowing her to seal the deal through a rules and bylaws engine that focuses on superdelegates and the Michigan / Florida delegate seating process. The other path, for Obama, is based on him taking a narrow pledged delegate lead, and then slowly building that lead through a string of victories that will eventually make Clinton’s super delegate lead a democratic farce, and her Michigan / Florida claims irrelevant. Which situation are we in now? Well, unless one is simply incapable of counting pledged delegates and simultaneously blind to Obama’s gaping caucus advantage and resource advantage, you simply have to conclude that the latter scenario is more likely now.


Like California and NY and NJ and MA, FL and MI voters are just going to cry uncle when Obama has them in a choke hold. “Ok, Ok, we give in. You can be the nominee. We didn’t know what we were thinking. We just let that most densely populated, most diverse, most tech savvy states status thingy go to our heads. Oh, and women forgot to check with their husbands before they pushed the buttons. We’re sorry, sorry, SORRY! Ow, ow, ow, you’re hurting us.”

Chris, if you and the rest of the big blog stores and the media keep this up, there is going to be a backlash and it isn’t going to be pretty. Obama is not going to be the nominee by the big states graciously conceding our delegates to him because he won more Utahs and Alaskas. Nah gah happen. It has nothing to do with superdelegates or party establishment. The voters of the largest Democratic states in the nation have spoken- decisively. I don’t think that Obama is going to want to piss us off.

Last night, Clinton proved conclusively that despite all of the vicious media and blogger attacks, she is an admired and viable candidate for president. It can only go up from here. Please don’t bore us with this stupid cognitive dissonant zealotry. Obama gets VP if he’s nice. Hillary tops the ticket.

Deal with it.

Oh, and one other thing: I’ll be campaigning for Clinton throughout April in PA, which is right over the border and I’m going to recruit my sister and mother to do the same since they live there. In fact, since there won’t be much else for we NY and NJ people to do before the convention, we will have lots of time on our hands during the weekends to help out.

Good Day, Sir! I said, GOOD DAY!

12 Responses

  1. This is tailor made for for a guerrilla marketing campaign that dives a wedge between the remaining big states and Obama. It’s simply a matter of pointing it out correctly.

  2. Wanna know another potential problem for Obama? I think I’ve mentioned this before but asians I work with skew strongly towards Clinton. They pay attention to debates and analyze everything to death. They are natural political junkies.
    I had lunch with a couple and they are very concerned that the rivalry between Obama and Clinton will threaten to split the Democratic coalition. They are not real happy about it and would like to hear from Obama that he will not let that happen should the convention not turn out in his favor.
    But both Barack and Michelle have gone on record as semi-threatening to cause a rift if Clinton is the nominee. Neither one of them will acknowledge that it is even a possibility for anyone other than Obama to win. Edwards took the pledge, Clinton took the pledge. I want to hear Obama and Michelle take the pledge. Before it was just Clinton and Obama, it was ok to pledge solidarity to the eventual nominee in general terms. But now that it’s just the two of them, there is no ambiguity about who that person will be if the other one loses. I want to hear it from Barack’s mouth explicitly. I don’t think we’ll have a problem getting that kind of committment from Hillary. But Barack has to show us he’s on board or the media is going to wind up the “Democrats are divided” crap.
    The sooner he takes the pledge, the better.

  3. You know what: there is one thing that people haven’t noticed. For all the talk of Gore endorsing Obama (I think, and hope he doesn’t), Hillary won Tennessee decisively! Isn’t that marvelous? She won the two red states that Bill and Al came from, and they obviously have good memories of them. It tells volumnes that Tennessee still loves Hillary!!

    Did Bill also win Arizona and Oklohoma?

  4. Whatever else, here is my suggestion to democratic party after this:

    -please simplify the half-ass formula by which you choose a nominee. Maybe have proportional delegates, but leaves a sizable chunk in each state for winner take all.

    -please get rid of caucases as much as you can. Maybe you have to leave Iowa the way it is, but caucuses are undemocratic because not everyone can go there at the caucus time. One way to do that is give winner-all delegates to primary systems. Then, the state parties will be crazy to forgo extra delegates.

  5. ghost2: agree with the primary suggestions. this is getting to be ridiculous when CA, NJ, NY, MA, FL and MI are effectively shut out of picking a candidate all because the other guy won a slew of red state caucuses. It’s grossly unfair to the vast majority of Democratic voters.

  6. Others claim to, but I have found no signs of intelligent life on planet Bowers, at least where math and logic apply. He uses numbers a lot, and has achieved popularity with the species of pundits that doesn’t draw sharp distinctions between millions and trillions.

  7. ronk: Seriously! It’s like all of the big states, NY, CA, NJ, NY, MA, FL, and MI can just go take a f$%^ing flying leap because a bunch of little red state caucuses end up giving Obama a slew of delegates. That’s what Bowers is advocating. And talk about changing the rules in the middle of the game, he thinks it’s outrageous that anyone would suggest that FL or MI delegates are legal but it’s perfectly OK with him to tell the superdelegates to go to hell.
    Is anyone paying attention to this drivel circulating the blogosphere? The vast majority of Democratic primary voters are being told their votes don’t count. Do you think we’re going to just take that lying down?
    BTW, how are the predictions for your Saturday caucus going? Any chance that Clinton could snag it?

  8. You know we’re onto something here, because Obamaworld considers such discussions “dangerous arrogance” that must be snuffed out wherever the occur:


    Pretty soon it will be the purview of specialists to interpret what this or that Obamista term of abuse means, much like during the Cold War you needed to know that when the Chinese said “imperialists” it means us but when they said “social imperialists” it meant the Soviets.

  9. Rich in PA: that’s why this blog exists. They may rule the rest of the blogosphere but here in this little corner, I can say whatever I like and no one can shut me up.
    And if you blog it, they will come. We’re almost at 4,000 hits in 2.5 weeks. It ain’t no DailyKos, but at least my words are getting read.

  10. Amen and so glad to see you.

    I’ve been reading blogs today that say “Obama has the crown already and why doesn’t Clinton just DROP OUT NOW!” because he won those tiny states and he’s got the money raining on him like a s##tstorm. So, the working-class voters and older women voters and Hispanic and Asian voters should shut up and listen to our “betters” and go home? That’s a helluva “unifying” message!

    Seen this?

  11. BTW, there was a day, back in the day, when Barry wanted Florida’s delegate’s to be seated. He just did a flip-flop about that recently. Who would have thought?


  12. How coneeeeenient for him back in September to promise FL delegates and how incredibly INconvenient now. It would be changing the rules in the middle of the game doncha know.

    I mean, let’s think about this: Clinton could possibly win MI, FL, NY, NJ, CA, MA, OH, TX and PA and there are a dozen pipsqueak bloggers running around the ether screaming that it shouldn’t count and superdelegates should just choose the nominee because Obama has more little states and winger country.

    Does this seem even remotely logical? What kind of Democratic party do we have when the bulk of the Democratic votes are nullified by the guy who won North Dakota?
    Am I crazy? Why are they so frickin’ desperate for Obama that they will push the rest of us out the window to get him? Something is seriously out of joint.

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