Things that scare the crap out of me

Wisconsin: None dare call it vote rigging (EDITED to add LINK!!!):

EDIT 2 (I should have included this link and information too)

One of my favorite mathematicians is Richard Charnin, who on his website using readily available public information, calculates the odds of the so-called ‘red shift” occurring from the 1988 to 2008 presidential elections. The red shift refers to the overwhelming pick up of votes by the Republican Party in recorded votes over what actual voters report to exit pollsters. See Richard Charnin’s article

.

In Charnin’s analysis of exit poll data, we can say with a 95% confidence level – that means in 95 out of 100 elections – that the exit polls will fall within a statistically predictable margin of error. Charnin looked at 300 presidential state exit polls from 1988 to 2008, 15 state elections would be expected to fall outside the margin of error. Shockingly, 137 of the 300 state presidential exit polls fell outside the margin of error.

What is the probability of this happening?

“One in one million trillion trillion trlllion trillion trillion trillion,” said Charnin.

Holy Crap. And there’s more:

Here’s where U.S. elections become laughable. A couple of private companies, count our votes with secret proprietary hardware and software, the most notable being ES&S. Every standard of election transparency is routinely violated in the U.S. electronic version of faith-based voting. How the corporate-dominated media deals with the issue is by “adjusting the exit polls.” They simply assume the recorded vote on easily hacked and programmed private machines are correct and that the international gold standard for detecting election fraud – exit polls – must be wrong.

All righty then! (emphasis mine)

h/t: Susie Madrak and Quixote

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26 Responses

  1. I guess I’m rotating my series. Things that scare the crap out of me…. and Things that depress the crap out of me. You’d think I’d be losing weight at least…

  2. I’ve always thought that the NUMBER ONE demand from Occupy Wall Street should have been a paper ballot.
    Too many of us vote on electronic voting machines. No matter how good or ambitious your vision is, you can’t do anything without an honest vote.

    • Yes — I think we need a constitutional amendment. For that and a public counting of the ballots in a room large enough for all interested witnesses (not just a pair of representatives from political parties)

  3. I read that article via Susie Madrak’s place. If we had those levels of statistical certainty about the Higgs boson, it would be a known particle by now.

    Our elections are rigged. There’s simply no question about it, up to scientific standards of proof — in the physical sciences.

    Nothing left to do but find the actual perps and their methods.

  4. I would never tell the truth to a pollster at the exit polls. It’s no ones business and I always like to screw up the know it alls and all their prognostications. I am sure I am not alone in this so I am willing to believe there is a lot more error in the exit polls that referenced above.

  5. More info is needed. Which way did the results fall out of the margin of error? If half the time they fell out favoring the democrat candidate, and half the time they fell out favoring the republican candidate, that still could mean some type of fraud, or not.

    How often are the exit polls checked? It’s possible that certain groups, such as seniors, union members, or private employees, could overwhelmingly favor one candidate over the other and also go to the polls at a certain time of day, tipping the exit polls incorrectly throughout the day as well.

    • The probability calculations are in the middle of the post: 134 of 300 exceeded the MoE in favor of the Repubs. Probability – 5E-115 = ZERO. Only 3 exceeded the MoE in favor of the Democrats. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/06/06/wisconsin-recall-the-adjusted-final-exit-poll-was-forced-to-match-an-unlikely-recorded-vote/

      • I forgot to add the link to the post until I read the above comment. There’s no way anyone could have read the original story before that!!!

        *** I just added a second update to add the link to your paper and to clarify the credit for this information. I wrote this on the run this morning and left that out.

      • Holy snot! Is that a real number?? It reminds me if the time I had to do a calculation for the number of antibodies a human could produce. It didn’t look real at first. I thought avogadro’s number was pushing it.

      • I just added a second update to add the link to your paper and to clarify the credit for this information. I wrote this on the run this morning and left that out.

      • I just want to make sure I understand correctly, the exit poll info that is generated is by actually talking to voters who have just voted?

        Richard, how do you respond to the claim that republicans are less likely to be interviewed by the media than democrats are in an exit poll? Could there be any truth to that, or is that just spin?

        I recall when Kerry was running for president it seemed like his vote totals kept creeping up on Bush, and then suddenly they would drop back down, steadily creep back up, then suddenly drop back down. If one had access to any of the networks ongoing voting tabulations from teh Bush / Kerry contest, and could speed up the broadcast by a factor of 100, it would be interesting to see if the Kerry or Bush numbers had a strange “hiccup” to them.

        • Not that Kerry ever even cared at the time. He clearly did not.

        • The reluctant Bush responder theory was promoted in 2004 by the exit pollsters to explain the large discrepancies. But they did not provide a shred of evidence for this claim that 56 Kerry voters responded for every 50 Republicans. In fact the precinct data showed that the response rates were higher in partisan Republican precincts that in Democratic ones.

          A much more plausible reason for the 56 Kerry /50 Bush ratio is that it reflected how people actually voted. This is backed up by reams of supporting evidence.

          The differential response canard is refuted by

          http://www.richardcharnin.com/ExitPollResponseOptimization.htm

          and

          http://www.richardcharnin.com/WPDConfirmation.htm

        • Exit pollsters randomly-selected voters right after they voted.

          There is no proof to the claim that Republicans are less likely to be interviewed. It is a lame excuse to explain Kerry’s 6.5% margin. In fact, the pollster’s own data shows that exit poll response was HIGHER in strong Bush precincts than in Democratic ones.

          For what it is worth, while the votes kept flipping, the exit poll timeline shows that Kerry led by 51-48% all the way from 4pm to midnight. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%.

          But the NEP was forced to match the recorded vote by switching Kerry respondents to Bush..Check any media election website and you will see that for the same 13660 respondents, Bush wins the NEP by his recorded vote margin.

  6. Look all over the house for a box. Can’t find it anywhere. I’ve looked probably 5 times. Can’t believe it’s not where I KNOW I put it….

    Stop to think. “In the past when you can’t find something it’s because it doesn’t look like you think it does” … hmm.

    Retrace my steps picking things up to look under them. Pick up an empty mailer. “This doesn’t feel that empty”

    Yep. That’s what I was looking for! Right where it belonged.

    It’s just that kind of day, I guess.

  7. Are ballots in Wisconsin cast electronically by touch-screen or other digital fraud method? Or are they cast on Legal Paper Ballots as the very first footprint in the chain of ballot-casting and ballot-counting?

    Is there anyone reading this from Wisconsin who knows the answer and can tell the rest of us? What is the mechanistic form of ballot casting in Wisconsin?

    • I see that either no one knows or no one cares to tell us.

    • They use a mixture of paper ballots and direct-recording electronic voting machines

      http://verifiedvoting.org/

      • If “direct recording” electronic means something like touchscreen or some other system with no legal paper ballot as the first step; then those “direct recording” parts of Wisconsin or anywhere else are where the fraud could take place with no way to prove otherwise.

        At least under a legal paper ballot system the ballots themselves would exist to be counted by hand if the issue could be forced. Perhaps the only way to force the issue of legal paper ballots would be for people who will accept nothing less to boycott all elections conducted by “direct electronic recording”. It would have to be part
        of a multi-year effort to withdraw legitimacy for such elections and the laws and governments passed by such elections. The people involved would have to be ready to “make wherever ungovernable” until Legal Paper Ballot elections were restored in those “wherevers”.

        • Only a few counties have the DRE-machines (with no paper trail you can trust, because the software is proprietary) up and running. Most counties still use hand-counted paper ballots or paper ballots scanned with an optical scanner. And a few counties still use mechanical level voting machines (like DRE, they have no paper trail)

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