On Wisconsin!

I’ve been following the recall election news from Wisconsin all day and from the looks of it, turnout is very high and it looks like it will be a squeaker between Scott Walker and his Democratic challenger Tom Barrett.  Turnout is estimated at 119% in Madison.  That number only looks strange because it is a relative number compared to the last election.  Wisconsin allows for same day registration so the number of first time voters is up.

[There seem to be an awful lot of people on twitter who are confused about the math when the turnout is reported to be above 100%.  So here's how it works: Take the number of voters who turned out for the last election.  That's your baseline.  If you get less than that number this year, you have less than 100% of the last voter turnout.  This happens a lot, especially in off year elections.  It's not unusual for your some of your registered voters to stay home.  If you get more voters, you get more than 100% of the last voter turnout.  In Wisconsin, it is possible to register to vote on the same day as the election.  Since this is a very high profile election, there are a greater number of voters coming out to vote so the number exceeds the turnout of last time.  It only sounds strange because the numbers are not absolute and they are not absolute because there is no hard count of voters by registration rolls when same day registration is permitted.  I assume that the new voter had to fill out a voter's registration card and they will be vetted later. The number exceeding 100% doesn't necessarily mean there were out of state voters or dead people.]

Update: Bernie Sanders weighs in on what a Walker win would mean to the rest of the country:

I love this headline from Andy Borowitz: Canada Bracing for Massive Influx of Wisconsin Boat People.

Charles Pierce is on the ground in Wisconsin and writes his usual witty, pithy, brilliant first hand account in Scenes from a Recall (I hate him for that).

The accusations from both sides are flying thick and fast.  The hallucinating nutcases at Fox are saying that Barrett is busing in people from Detroit to vote.  The voters have been reporting misleading robocalls that assure them that if they signed a recall petition, they need not trouble their pretty little heads about voting today.

Then there are the excuses and rationale that are coming from Obama friendly sources.  Rumor has it that he didn’t campaign in Wisconsin for Barrett because he thought Walker would win and he didn’t want to be seen standing next to a loser.  That’s a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy if ever I heard one.  Once again, it’s all about Obama.  Nevermind that there are public service workers and regular working people and women who may suffer the consequences if Walker wins.  What’s most important is maintaining Obama’s image.

The new spin from press secretary Jay Carney is that Wisconsin won’t be very  predictive of Obama’s chances in November at all.  I disagree.  Let’s look at the possible scenarios:

1.) Walker wins big.  This is bad news for working people.  It also proves that with a lot of money, you can buy a lot of megaphone volume to spew lies out to the public.  It would set a really bad precedent.  Republicans would gleefully pull out all of the stops.  Obama’s carefully manicured image would be in danger, especially if he economy gets worse.

2.) Walker wins small. If it’s really tight or if there’s a recount and Walker squeaks by, we’ll always wonder if Obama’s active presence and support would have been enough to change the outcome.  I think we’ll hear a lot of criticism from Wisconsin if that happens.  And if they’ve fought this hard and lost the war anyway, what would be the point of showing up in November?

3.) Barrett wins small. This would be a great outcome for Wisconsin and working people everywhere.  But it’s hard to see how Obama benefits from a win when he has scrupulously avoided any association with the campaign.  His tepid endorsement after Barrett won the primary and his single motivating tweet on the Wisconsin election this morning just goes to show how little influence he had on the outcome.  On the other hand, Barrett is going to owe Bill Clinton.

4.) Barrett wins big. In this scenario, the sentiment is that working people are pissed and won’t be shoved to one side while the Republicans swagger all over them and the Democrats go out of their way to court the snippy suburbanites who have stay at home moms like Michelle Obama and don’t hang around with working people if they can help it.  The party may have to start paying attention to working people and unions, something they’ve been avoiding for the past 4 years.  Hmmm, how do they start to look sincere this late in the game…?  Or the party could continue on it’s single minded quest for complete control of the message and just ignore Wisconsin.  In neither case do I get the impression that Obama will motivate the base to vote for him in November.  In fact, working people might just start feeling their Cheerios and start issuing demands.

Are there any other scenarios that would favor Obama?  I don’t see them but I might be suffering from a failure to imaginate.  It just seems to me that the Obama campaign kind of let Wisconsin down here.  Sure, Debbie Wasserman Shultz says the DNC and Obama’s campaign org in Wisconsin helped out but one gets the impression from the candidate himself that he was dragged into it very reluctantly.  And against this much cash pouring into Walker’s campaign, boots on the ground and a serious, DNC GOTV effort was more than justified.

Does Obama even realize that working people are his base or is he still buying into that crazy ass stuff that Donna Brazile was peddling in 2008 when she said they were the “old coalition” and the Democratic party didn’t need them anymore?  Because I have news for the party. The suburbs aren’t doing so well these days either.  There are just as many of us out of work and much, much poorer than we used to be.  And as we move from being wage slaves with company benefits to involuntary entrepreneurs, footing the bill for everything ourselves, the conservative message starts sounding a lot less painful.  Not everyone has the interest to become a political junky and tease out fact from fiction, cause from effect like we do.  I wouldn’t get to comfortable if I were the DNC.  Or Obama.

Maybe he should have gone to Madison.  Some things are just worth the risk.

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6 Responses

  1. If it is scenario 1 or 2 , Obama will be well rewarded by his owner-handlers for staying away on the supposition that his staying away may have default-helped Walker to win. Scenarios 1 or 2 are the preferred scenarios for Obama’s owner-handlers and if Obama can tell them that his stay-away provided the margin of victory that Walker needed, how can Obama’s owner-handlers be sure that Obama is wrong?

    If 3 or 4 play out, Obama will forgo whatever payoff for staying away that a Walker victory would have earned Obama from Obama’s owners and handlers. But Obama will still be very richly rewarded for all the other power streams and revenue streams he has gained for them. So a Barrett victory only costs Obama some theoretical out-of-office payoff money off the top of all the other payoff money he will still get anyway.

    If 3 or 4 play out, the Wisconsin Democrats may well understand that they won despite the passive-obstructive sabotage against them from the Reid-Pelosi-Hoyerats and the National Obamacrats. If they understand that, they may well begin thinking about how to seccede from the national level Democratic Party and begin calling themselves
    the Wisconsin State Democrat Party. If they can purge, disinfect, and decontaminate their Wisconsin State Democrat Party of all “National Democrat” influences, they may well be able to influence other Great Lakestani State Parties to do the same thing. The Minnesota State Democrat Party, the Michigan State Democrat Party, etc. If enough such decontaminated State Democrat Parties arise, they could sever all ties to the Democratic Party and form among themselves a Union of State Democrat Parties. Any other stateload of Democrats who could thoroughly purge and takeover their party and sever its connection to the Democratic Party as they call themselves the (You Name It) State Democrat Party could join the growing Union of State Democrat Parties. Once the Union of State Democrat Parties had exterminated the Democratic Party from existence and wiped the Democratic Party off the face of the earth, the Union of State Democrat Parties could disinfect the space vacated by the hopefully exterminated Democratic Party and use that space to run legitimate candidates for Federal Office, and use those candidates to pursue a no compromise liberadical semisocialist agenda without mercy or forgiveness towards the enemies and opponents of that agenda.

    Perhaps if a Wisconsin State Democrat Party arises under its own name, it can make Bill Clinton an Honorary Wisconsin State Democrat in gratitude for Clinton’s breaking ranks with the Democratic Party by supporting the Wisconsin recall effort against the National Democratic Party’s wishes . . . as passive-aggressively expressed by the Democratic Party Leader Obama.

  2. Wow, I wish I were there. There are still lines and some precincts have run out of ballots.

  3. Maybe he should have gone to Madison.

    Surely you don’t mean to imply that President Obama ™ didn’t keep his campaign promise to “walk the picket line” with workers!!!!!

  4. Walker is the projected winner, how will the O-bots spin this?

  5. In better news- NJ Democratic primary- candidate backed by Bill Clinton wins big over candidate backed by Obama.

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