New Polls: Democrats Heading for Disaster?

Dark skies ahead for Dems?

Hello Conflucians! It’s Tuesday after a long weekend, so we’re getting a slow start.

Three new polls were released today, along with a forecast from a group of political scientists. The results don’t look good for Democratic chances in the November elections. MSNBC’s First Read asks whether “a GOP tidal wave [is] building.”

With the official start of the campaign season now underway, the latest NBC/WSJ poll shows Republicans leading on the generic ballot by nine points among likely voters (49%-40%) and 18 points among those expressing a high interest in the midterms (53%-35%). Among registered voters, however, the score is even (43%-43%), suggesting that Democrats can limit their losses if they turn out their voters. The current political environment, in some respects, is worse than it was in 1994 or 2006. For example: 61% currently believe the country is on the wrong track. But at this point in time in ’06, 54% said this, and in ’94, it was 57%. Yesterday, President Obama accused Republicans of being of the party of “No, no, no, no.” But, according to this poll, “No, no, no, no” seems to be working for the GOP. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/06/AR2010090602161.html?hpid=topnews

At the Wall Street Journal, we’re told to “Get ready for an anti-incumbent wave.”

Mounting economic gloom and a controversial agenda are exacting a heavy toll on their prospects for keeping control of Congress in the Nov. 2 elections, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

The poll, taken to coincide with the traditional Labor Day kickoff of the campaign’s home stretch, shows the Democrats’ biggest problem is a wide passion gap: Voters angry at Democrats are fired up to vote, while many who like them are yawning over the coming election.

When voters overall are asked whether they prefer that November’s vote produce a Congress controlled by Democrats or by Republicans, they split evenly, 43% favoring Democrats and 43% Republicans.

But among those who appear most likely to vote, based on their level of interest in the campaign and their history of voting, the Republicans own a dramatic 49% to 40% advantage. If that kind of lead holds, Republicans would almost certainly take back control of the House.

Here’s a link to the poll results (PDF)

The Washington Post-ABC poll came out today too, and the results are similar.

Republicans are heading into the final weeks of the midterm campaign with the political climate highly in their favor, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Americans are increasingly frustrated by a lack of economic progress, deeply dissatisfied with the federal government and critical of President Obama’s leadership.

For the first time in more than four years, Republicans run about evenly with Democrats on the basic question of which party they trust to handle the nation’s biggest problems. Among registered voters, 40 percent say they have more confidence in Democrats and 38 percent say they have more trust in Republicans. Three months ago, Democrats had a 12-point advantage.

On the economy, 43 percent of voters side with Republicans when it comes to dealing with financial problems, while 39 percent favor Democrats. (Fifteen percent say they trust neither party more.) Although not a significant lead for Republicans, this marks the first time they have had any numerical edge on the economy dating to 2002. In recent years, Democrats have typically held double-digit advantages on the issue.

CNN’s latest poll is also out today

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Tuesday indicates that 46 percent of Americans say that Republicans in Congress would do a better job dealing with the economy, with 43 percent saying that Congressional Democrats would do a better job on the top issue on the minds of Americans. The GOP’s three point advantage is within the poll’s sampling error.

The Republicans’ 3-point edge is a big shift from last year, when the Democrats held a 52 to 39 percent advantage. The GOP leads 51 percent to 32 percent on the economy among Independents, and they have a 9-point advantage on the issue among voters 65 and older.

The poll shows Dems with only slightly better numbers than Repubs on Social Security. It’s a shame President Obama had to turn over the reins of the cat food commission a conservative Dem and a complete nut like Alan Simpson, because now they really aren’t in a position to play the SS card anymore.

Finally, at Huffpo, Joseph Bafumi, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien report the results of their “preliminary 2010 forecast” which “will appear (with other forecasts by political scientists) in the October issue of PS: Political Science.”

How many House seats will the Republicans gain in 2010? To answer this question, we have run 1,000 simulations of the 2010 House elections. The simulations are based on information from past elections going back to 1946. Our methodology replicates that for our ultimately successful forecast of the 2006 midterm. Two weeks before Election Day in 2006, we posted a prediction that the Democrats would gain 32 seats and recapture the House majority. The Democrats gained 30 seats in 2006. Our current forecast for 2010 shows that the Republicans are likely to regain the House majority….

By our reckoning, the most likely scenario is a Republican majority in the neighborhood of 229 seats versus 206 for the Democrats for a 50-seat loss for the Democrats. Taking into account the uncertainty in our model, the Republicans have a 79% chance of winning the House.

So what are you hearing? Please consider this a news post, and feel free to use the comments to post links to stories on any topic. And have a terrific Tuesday!!!!