Welcome home Ohio!
Obama’s arrogance is just amazing. Now it seems that Mr. “50 state strategy” is throwing one more state under the bus, Ohio. We already knew he had thrown Florida down there when he and the DNC conspired to count them as only half-people. Throw in Michigan and that brings us down to 47 states. Maybe Obama really does think there are 57 states. According to his math, he still has 4 more states to toss aside before he gets down to his 50. I’m just guessing, but he’ll probably write off West Virginia and Kentucky in the coming months. Anyone want to take a guess on what other states he will jettison to reach 50? Let me know in comments. So how’s he going to win without a state that has determined the presidency for the last 11election cycles? Let’s take a look:
Barack Obama’s campaign envisions a path to the presidency that could include Virginia, Georgia and several Rocky Mountain states, but not necessarily the pair of battlegrounds that decided the last two elections — Florida and Ohio.
First of all, no, I did not copy and paste this from The Onion. They actually think they can win a bastion of redness like Georgia??? I mean I know they expect every last African American to come out and vote, and of course every last one of them will vote for Obama, but c’mon guys!! You really think that’s gonna happen? Apparently so:
Likewise, Georgia has many unregistered black voters who could turn out in record numbers to support the first major-party nominee who is black, he argued. Plouffe said the campaign also will keep an eye on Mississippi and Louisiana as the race moves into the fall to see if new black voters could put them within reach.
Georgia will not be in play people. The only two democrats to win the state in recent history were Jimmy Carter (he’s from there) and Bill Clinton. And as much as I love Bill, the only reason he won there is because Perot siphoned votes away from Bush Sr. And before anyone says it, I really don’t believe that Barr, although he is local, will have nearly the impact as Perot did in 92 (he won 20% of the popular vote). In Georgia, Clinton beat Bush by less than 1%, with Perot taking 13%. Bill also won 370 EV’s that year too, and I don’t hear anyone suggesting that Obama will do that well. As for Virginia, they contend that Democrats have been winning there in recent years, so why not Obama?:
Obama’s campaign has spent heavily on time and money in Virginia, where a Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t won since 1964. In recent elections, however, high-profile Republicans have lost there. And in a sign of how serious Obama is taking the state, Plouffe dispatched to Virginia many aides who helped Obama stage his upset win in the Iowa caucuses Jan. 3.
His upset win? He won 38% of the vote. That means that 62% of Iowans voted against him. And this was a caucus, not a real election. And in Virginia, the Democrats who have won lately (Kaine, Webb) are conservative tough guys, and Webb won by the narrowest of margins, largely due to the fact that George “macaca” Allen seriously went off the rails with his viral racist comments (And he still barely lost!!!!!!).
Finally, there is this, straight from Obama fantasyland:
Plouffe also has been touting Obama’s appeal in once Republican-leaning states where Democrats have made gains in recent gubernatorial and congressional races, such as Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Montana, Alaska and North Dakota.
Personally, I think he loses all of them (I’m predicting a massacre on the scale of Mondale in ‘84), but Obama would have to win ND, AK, NM, NV, MT–all of those states to reach 19 EV’s (Ohio has 20). And if he carried all of them that still would not be enough to Make up for both Florida and Ohio. He would have to take just about all of the above states, plus VA and GA to negate the effect of losing just Florida and Ohio. My opinion? NOT. GONNA. HAPPEN.
Plouffe goes on to say:
“You have a lot of ways to get to 270,” Plouffe said. “Our goal is not to be reliant on one state on November 4th.”
Yeah, and we threw out the best way to get to 270 when the DNC subverted the will of voting Democrats and installed Obama as its presumptuous nominee.
Filed under: Barack Obama, Presidential Election 2008, snark | Tagged: 50 state strategy, Florida, Ohio, under the bus
If the Supers had only considered the popular vote in assessing which of the two tied candidates would be stronger in the GE:
Real Clear Politics shows Clinton beat him by +286,687 votes counting her MI votes/not counting “uncomitted”.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
At the bottom of the page is the uncommitted vote total: “**(Senator Obama took his name off the Michigan Ballot. Uncommitted was on the ballot and received 238,168 votes”
So even assigning every uncomtted MI vote to Obama (unlikely since Richardson, Edwards and Dodd were also off ballot, like Obama, by choice only, it was NOT required by the DNC) she got more votes than Obama:
286,687 Clinton lead
-238,168 minus MI “Obama” votes
= about a 40,000 vote lead for Clinton.
His delegate lead of 136 came from little caucus states that will never go blue anyway.
Yeah, weren’t the blogger boyz telling us that he will expand the map? That democrats have recently lost b/c they have played for a narrow win, and haven’t gone all out??
Wonder what happened to that? We are back to the Kerry/Gore + one state math.
The only person who would have truely expanded the map (like her husband) was Hillary Rodham Clinton.
WHAT A JOKE!!! IT GOES TO SHOW THAT THE PLAN WAS NEVER TO WIN THE PRESIDENCY, BUT TO STOP CLINTON. THIS IS DOWN RIGHT SICKENING!!!
Just saw that Obama hired Patti Solis Doyle as Chief of Staff for his VP pick. Any thoughts on what this means for Hillary?
Are Doyle and Hillary still on good terms after Doyle was dismissed in a campaign shakeup? Could this be a sign that Obama recognizes the need to pick Hillary as his VP?
Please, I have my own living room & fpatio under the Obama bus.
I’m a woman, I’m Latina, I currently earn a middle/lower income since 2004, I’m a single mother and I’m a FL voter.
If they think the can win without Ohio & FL, wow, that’s some “Audacity.” There aren’t enough AAs & upper-income liberal white voters anywhere else he’s looking to win!
There’s something else in that Kool Aid… and it ain’t sugar.
Hysterical. In the recent ND primary, Ron Paul earned more votes than Obama.
This really sucks!! They are screwing the people out of a democratic president because Pelosi and Reid want more money for down ballots so they have more power within there respective governing bodies (ie House and Senate). Its all about power and not about what is good for the country!!!! I’m sure Clinton’s coat tails would bring a lot of success to the down ballots in NY, PA, Arkansas, Ohio, etc… They want the power concentrated in them, not clinton!!!! It is so obvious.
SM,
I hadn’t thought about it, but “Audacity of Hope” now takes on a completely new meaning.
What Obama means is that he plans to win the 57 States of the Organization of the Islamic Conference or OIC.
Kendall, the downticket ballots now have near to ZERO support because now the DNC operations have moved to Chiacgo and any DNC officials in any state have been ordered to work on the national camapign exclusively within their state.
So down ticket dems are on their own.
OT, but WTF? Obama hired Patty Solis Doyle for the VP Chief of Staff? Wow.
http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/6/16/135712/272
OH…MY…GAWD! Someone has seriously hit the ganja haven’t they? Georgia? Yeah, maybe the Atlanta metro area with its high AA population but…
Hell, as long as they are deluding themselves they might want to add AL, and MS. (snark)
Louisiana is going to be red. Hillary might have carried it but because of northern Louisiana, the state will go to McCain.
If you can, check out the tinyurl I posted at the end of comments on the previous thread. Video of Yahoo/AP asking “Where’s the bump?”
I’m from Georgia where we have a popular Rep. Governor, two republican Senators, and quite frankly republicans everywhere.
Obama might do well in ATL and Columbus that have large AA populations. But he didn’t do well in any surrounding counties during the primary.
I think he just trying to make McCain spend money here and use resources. The last time a presidential nominee had to spend money in this state to campaign was 1996.
Mawm, in my neighborhood that type of “Audacity” is called “cojones” and not the courageous kind.
It took a Civil War, World War II, and the Civil Rights Movement–or about 110 years–to eliminate slavery and begin destroying the socio-economic barriers to advancement of sexism and racism. Maybe it will take a huge trouncing for the American voters to realize that there’s more to choosing a president then media appeal. Maybe Obama will win. Maybe he won’t, but Hillary was rooked!
I’m very encouraged to hear that David Plouffe is saying these things and presumably believes them. It raises my Hope(TM) that Obama will lose big in November.
I don’t know enough about Michigan, but Kerry/Gore barely (well…depends on your definition) won there, with 51% both times.
You know, whenever I put on my GOP thinking hat (I think it has lice…), I’ve never thought Gov. Romney was a good VP pick. But now I’m starting to have second thoughts. Gov. Romney gives Sen. McCain more support with the conservative base (the ones who aren’t willing to go past the Mormonism), builds up his economic credentials…it gives him a better chance in Michigan and other industrial states. I don’t think it wins him Mass., of course, but it might make it interesting (remember, Clinton won that primary). Imagine the Democratic candidate having to campaign in Mass.!
If Sen. McCain plays his cards right (and he may not, from what I’ve seen), he could actually change the map more than Sen. Obama could…
OH! As an addendum, I was talking to a customer rep from a flower company to check on an order I had placed. She was in OH and we got to talking politics. She felt it was going to be very iffy for Obama to get the state. Guess now they’ll just blow it off.
Love the picture. LOL.
OT but someone should diary the one decent story on Clinton in the media: with QUOTES!!!!
On how she looks back/lessons learned: hint – experience does count: she has learned a lot from this experience…;-) great piece read and diary – somebody!
http://nymag.com/news/politics/47837/index1.html
A lot of those southern states were voted before the Wright coverage. He might have been able to take some red states pre-Wright, but not now.
Looks like Obama changed his mind about being “the” black candidate. Is an apology to Bill Clinton forthcoming? I’m not holding my breath.
Garychapelhill…Love the post…I think it’s great. I think this should be sent to people like Senator Schumer. Does anyone know..if every superdelegate had voted to reflect their constituents….would Hillary have more delegates?
As a disabled female FL democratic voter, I’m pretty comfortable under the bus. It keeps the sun out of my eyes. Since it looks like I’ll be here a while longer, I think I’ll get a good book and some decorative touches so it will seem homey, somehow.
Yeah. It’s not that they’ve thrown Ohio anywhere – they simply know they can’t win it.
Hell, I live in Tennessee, which has a Dem governor, 5 of our 9 Congresscritters are Dems, etc. No way in hell Obama wins here. So I’d like to know how on earth he thinks he’ll win in states where the picture is even less friendly for Dems.
Unless he plans on typical machine politics – dead folks voting and whatnot. Which much as I hate to say it, I wouldn’t put past him at this point.
You can’t get much more diverse than my family, so no political incorrectness here. But, that is exactly the strategy that has alienated so many white voters, especially in the South. With all the talk of not having lobbyists onboard, there are a lot who feel it stands to reason, that even if you don’t owe lobbyists; if you rely on one demographic, then in the long haul, you owe them.
Did y’all see the link I posted? Obama has hired Solis Doyle as his VP’s chief of staff. WTF?
angry artist, most definitely she would, because she took the most counties. All of his support was concentrated in the Urban areas. She would have more superdelegates than him based on winning more precincts.
Also, the DNC weighted the delegates so that wins from Urban areas counted more than wins from rural ones.
Yes children, the deck was stacked before the game even began.
JMAC: I agree, many were feeling buyer’s remorse after Rev. Wright.
They’re not going to try to win Ohio? Are they insane? Is it too “old politics” to try to win states with LARGE electoral vote totals?
You can’t get much more diverse than my family, so no political incorrectness here. But, that is exactly the strategy that has alienated so many non – AA voters, especially in the South. With all the talk of not having lobbyists onboard, there are a lot who feel it stands to reason, that even if you don’t owe lobbyists; if you rely on one demographic, then in the long haul, you owe them.
Solis Doyle? Why bless her heart.
Is Mark Penn available?
I am under the bus in moderation again, will someone give me the list of things I can’t say.
I wonder if they know something about PUMA support there. isn’t there a large group of women from Ohio who are now part of “just say no deal”?
Woot! Thanks for the good news, gary!
Hope it means he won’t be wastin’ campaign $ on ads in Ohio!
I feel like dancin’!
Can we get a list of key words that don’t thow us into moderation?
SM: I wondered what happened to down ticket Dems with the DNC being in Chicago. Now I know, they do not matter, only the “Change’ling”
Although “Dems” might be making “progress” in Southern states, Plouffe may want to actually look at the policies of those “Democrats.”
A good portion of “Democrats” elected in the South are anti-choice and anti-gay. That’s why they’ve enjoyed success in typically Republican bastions.
So it’s faulty logic to say that Obama can make inroads in the way that those Democrats have made inroads.
But then again, by November, Obama just might be anti-choice and anti-gay.
Well, at least when courting churches in said Southern states. Snark.
Romney is VERY POPULAR and well liked among Republican Latinos with his dad being born in Mexico & “liberal” Republican from Massachusetts.
Many of us have worried that we “just don’t know enough about Obama”. I’m beginning to think his campaign may be an accurate reflection of the candidate: if a job is easy, he’ll do it; if it’s hard, he’ll turn his back and walk away. I’d like to see a comprehensive list of his “walkaways”.
Jackyt: I am now more convinced than ever, that we do not have a clue about Obama.
gary,
A lot of black people I know are saying the same thing because they’ think the GE is going to be like the primary. They’re either ignoring or don’t know the reality of the majority of black votes being in the south, and how the electoral college works.
There will be mass disillusionment in November, and, thanks to Obama, many will blame racism rather than his many weaknesses that have nothing to do with race.
Sonya: I have a feeling this is not going to be pretty
Sonya, I think you’re spot on. Many states in the south like MS and AL haven’t seen a statewide AA victory since reconstruction. I just don’t see how they plan on pulling it off with the AA vote alone.
sonya – They also forget that Repulicans come out and vote and that there is a Republican candidate.
and whoever said so earlier about the Dem party being very different in the south than the rest of the country is also right on.
marisa,
I do not believe your statement to be snark. I fully expect Obama to move in that direction. It is the reason he has been so stand-offish on LGBT issues. THis is just a prediction, but I expect him to (instead of under the bus) throw LGBT into the meat grinder of wedge politics.
Think about it. He has played fast and loose with groups that Democrats can usually count on, women, gays… And he hasn’t even reached out to women now. His attitude is, “where will they go”. I think he feels LGBT are in the same boat. Where will we go?
His calculus is that core Democratic groups will either hold their noses and vote for him, or stay home. He can’t imagine women or LGBT voting for McCain. He wants to get those evangelicals bad. All of his latest moves have been to court them.
My prediction is LGBT will find themselves in the middle of a very ugly Obama GE strategy. It is the only way he can win. He needs Repub votes. He will put us on the pyre, and no one will come to our rescue, because Dems are afraid. It is going to be bloody.
I can’t decide what the heck is going on – either it’s been a fix since day 1 and the Dems for whatever reason want to lose the Presidency (maybe Pelosi and Reid don’t want to share the power???) or this campaign despite the win over Clinton is really incredibly dumb and naive? Sometimes I just feel that the world is spinning strangely on the wrong axis!
Will the core Dems ever wake up and take back the party?
I don’t think Doyle will do anything for the “movement.” It certainly won’t convince Clinton Dems to have a change of heart. It won’t attract voters from Ohio and Florida, voters who obviously don’t count one way or the other. And a few more jabs at Ed Rendell who is wildly popular in the tri-state area will ensure a huge regional defeat in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York. Let’s scratch off West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee, all those Neanderthal working class folks, too. Add on Latinos, seniors, Catholics and Jews.
The map sure is shifting.
BO better hope there are 57 states, magic states. Something like my magic vote that the Dems will never see in ‘08.
PUMApac.org.
Aren’t you forgetting to figure in the number of “dead people” that will rise up and vote for Obama?
Please count every vote!
Gary, North Carolina might be able to pull it off, they are much more progressive than AL, MS, and SC. Obama does realize that in the GE, he doesn’t get double votes for urban areas.
As far as MI goes I think it is a total tossup. McCain has serious issues since he said those manufacturing jobs are not coming back. That is sacrilege to those Michganders who rely heavily on those manufacturing jobs. Now I can’t quite gage how my old home state feels about Obama but I think he will make a concerted effort there to woo them will it win them over? It is hard for me to fathom. My relatives that still live there are split on the issue.
The dead people in the past voted republican.
I want to know who is going to pay for the fuel to drive Obama’s bus cross country to throw everyone under!
North Dakota??!!! Has Plouffe ever even been to North Dakota? Listen, I was born there, and I love the place, but North Dakota is never, I repeat never, going to vote for a Democrat for the presidency. Not. Gonna. Happen. And besides, ND can’t have more than one or two electoral votes. There aren’t even a million people in the state.
I wonder if Plouffe still thinks Obama can carry Indiana? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
This guy is delusional.
Kim – and so shall we Hillary Clinton supporters if she is not the Nominee!
Another thought – are they that afraid of the Women4FairPolitics group in Ohio that Ohio has to be thrown under the bus.
Maybe our “little” groups are starting to scare them – who’d have thunk we’d go organize and fight back – weren’t we just supposed to lie down and wait for the bus to run over us??? Weren’t we supposed to be dutiful sheep and just vote Democratic like we’ve always done – tell me who here really wanted Dukakis, et al?
Do we have a chance to get our candidate nominated? Is that why they want her to release her delegates before the world watches the convention?
How idiotic is it to trumpet ahead of time that you are forfeiring 2 states? telling those voters _ “you’re dismissed? Shouldn’t these plans be kept secret?
Of course, what that means is that their internals show them that Hillary voters ain’t coming around, nor did they resume knitting…
Sorry to remind you, Bo, Plouffe – but a primary win doesn;t translate into a GE win – Mccain also won those states in the primaries.
Not going into the undemocratic caucases – but remember the rented republicans?
“We give them two forms – one to change their registration now for the primary and one so they can switch back later,”BO volunteer revealing the true goals of the campaign
http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/tenbedroom-house-now-home-for-obamas-volunteer-army/2008/03/20/1205602581838.html
Kim,
“The Changling,” I like that one. That was a terrific horror movie. have you seen it?
Al Gore is going to endorse Obama tonight!
Someone do a drug test!
Wake me when it’s over.
Good point, are they counting the Republicans for a day?
Hee Carol!!
Mawm–sadly, I also wouldn’t be surprised if Obama threw LGBT folks under the bus either. I would hope that he would not have the audacity to outright condemn us in churches, but stranger things (right here in this election) have occurred.
The man has neither principles nor policies.
I LOVED it when the Philadelphia Gay News published a blank sheet (representing that Obama would not speak with them) next to an interview with Hillary.
Obama really has shunned local gay publications.
Did anyone read the Obama Advocate interview?
I can’t stomach looking at Obama so I had to skip it.
BB: I think I saw it, was a good movie. I felt the changling was appropriate and not so derogatory to be offensive (wink)
Mark – I’m going to try to get on the next space shuttle as long as they don’t plan to ever bring me back down.
marisa,
See, I don’t see LGBT going under the Obama bus. That would be such a waste. No, we ARE of use to him. However, our use is as a blood sacrifice to the Evangelicals.
Oh hell, I lied. I’m just going to jump under the bus and be done with it.
It could be that Ploufe is really scared and he’s full of bravado. He is reacting to things going on behind the scences. I am trying to back titrate to see what it might mean.
Why talk about OH and FL now? Are both delegations going to be seated? Could it be that Hillary has a fight back plan? If there is a floor fight and OH looks like it’s going to Clinton, Obama wants to be able to say “I didn’t need them anyway.” Pee Wee Herman: I meant to do that!
Obama’s thin skin will continue to hinder him.
This is making my head hurt.
Speaking as someone who actually lives in Montana…no. Not going to happen. Obama is in no way, shape, or form a “Montana Democrat,” and there is no way in hell he can take the state. Not on votes.
I’m beginning to wonder if the Obama campaign isn’t somehow thinking they can convince the Electoral College electors to go against the popular vote. They’re allowed to after all, but come on already.
He should just change his campaign slogan to “No Gonna Happen.”
Poufffffffffff – The way the Obama camp is going to get to 270 is to drop the last digit!
The plan must be to rig the electoral college. Horrible man.
Patti Solis Doyle was hired to court Latino voters.
Hillary got the Latino vote with OR without Solis Doyle because of Hillary’s wonderful history in our community.
Obama, ufffff, assumes, like he does with everyone else under the bus, “we got nowhere else to go.”
But guess what? Latinos flock to McCain because he was a huge insturment in the immigration reform fight, siding with Democrats, namely our lovely Hillary (who co-wrote the bill), on comprehensive immigration reform.
I thought the Latino population in Fla was largely Republican.
I agree–all of the Obama bravado, especially in the face of incredible odds just makes me wonder what Axelrod & Co. have in store for this GE.
I can only think that they’re banking on corruption.
Is there a way to give Illinois 270 electoral votes?
Maybe Rezko can help them out. Oh wait, he’s unavailable.
marisa – I agree. They’ve created a Ponzi scam and now they have been found out.
They are just making it up as they go along.
Bluedawgdem, it’s mostly the older Cubans in Miami, but we are a BIG state with a LOT of Latinos.
More and more Latinos are voting Demcorat, we are the difference that is changing FL from a red to blue state.
Up until Obama threw us out, now TWO TIMES!
I’m giving bo IL, MD, DE, HI, and DC… CA and WA will be a battleground states (OR is a loss)… NY will go red (as will ME and NH)… it’s gonna be a blowout.
what in the world could they be thinking at the DNC?
And for what it’s worth, PUMA, NoDeal, and countless other resistance groups are scaring the cr*p out of them.
The Rebel Alliance has formed. We called their bluff. Good work, rebels.
The dead will be voting for him in LA. Haven’t you heard of all the fraudulent voter registration forms they have received there?
The dirty tricks haven’t even begun.
I remember when I would hear people say, we need to fight as dirty as the Republicans. Well guess what? If anyone said that they got their wish. It just doesn’t feel really satisfying, or reassuring.
Knowing that he can’t win is a bittersweet victory, because, we had it, we had it in the damn bag. A dem congress, and Hillary, it was ours and . . .
Makes me want to just sit in the floor and cry.
Maybe I will.
Carol…tell me it isn’t true. Is Gore going to endorese Obama tonight?
#
garychapelhill, on June 16th, 2008 at 2:56 pm Said:
and whoever said so earlier about the Dem party being very different in the south than the rest of the country is also right on.
Gary,
Can I do a “yes, but…”
Dems in the South (other than AA) are for the most part more conservative than their counterparts. It’s the Blue Dogs. They are more conservative but Bill was able to work with them. In my district, our congressman is Charlie Melancon. Very Catholic and most likely not pro-choice, although I’ve never head him say either way.
Hillary would have been able to work with them also, but I seriously doubt that will happen with Obie.
angry artest – It’s true.
This whole thing is so Trollopian. Trollope wrote about politicians and crooks and how they just keep smiling and acting if nothing is wrong even thought they know that their world is about to come crashing down.
He wrote about how high society would sit at the politicians’ banquets eating and drinking. There would be whispers at the table – “He’s ruined you know!” but the people kept eating the food that would not be paid for and admiring the stolen silver.
I was harboring some fantasy that gore would save the party before the convention and back Hillary. I guess he is really a wimp..didn’t fight for the Presidency and now not leading….yuck!
@ Carol: The way the Obama camp is going to get to 270 is to drop the last digit!
27 electoral votes . . . in 57 states!
I think the Dems are assuming low turnout for McCain and superhigh turnout for Obama. That would be the only way they would win some of the states they’re talking about.
I know that two SD’s in South Carolina are Clintonites, Carol and Don Fowler, but the state went BO so they split their vote, one for Hillary and one for BO.
Gore has been asked to do this and he will, means nothing. Gore is trying to get the planet green, that is his goal.
Gore never liked the Clintons.
But why does Gore have to do it with arugula??
There are far better greens. Less bitter.
Sorry bad pun:)
Well, McCain supporters are old, so maybe they’ll get tired and confused and they won’t show up. Or maybe they can fooled into “pressing the wrong button” by Obama Volunteers at the polling place.
Obama’s people are idiots.
No one gets it — 270 electoral votes is so old politics. The new politics is that BZero will take those 7 magical and mystical states he has added to the 50.
You might know these 7 new states are larger than CA and only someone with Axelrinant’s mentatlity could serve as cartographer. The names are another thing, you have your Hopeistan, Changeislovakia, Flickoffmyshoulderia, Botston, Experientigan, NewNewNewton, and Wrightucky.
The new inauguration day as has been confirmed as the 12th of Never.
BTW, gary, great picture and post — thanks, you caused me to have a snark attack.
Just read this over at No Quarter…
An amber alert has been put out for Dean’s mind!
I just unsubscribed from Al Gore’s email list, which is what I do when anybody asks me for money for Obama.
Prolix–that’s very funny!
Kim, but Gore knows more than anyone else that Obama’s an Excelon buy.
Gore washed away whatever credibility he’s built up against global warming if he does publically endorse.
Gary or Mawm: On the Just Say No Deal phone conference, was there any mention of going at this at a state by state level. For instance, PUMA or JSND endorsing a candidate at the state level. I know in the South, not sure about anywhere else, there are loads of street fairs. Could we set up a booth and show the candidates we are endorsing. I really think we need to start at the state level, these guys fear losing their cushy little seats.
SM, I’m with you. Gore will have NO credibility on the environment, if he does it.
I know, but the Unity pony has pulled up to his estate in TN and he is a democrat.
Prolix – you are a master!!! LOL!
But you forgot the little US Territory of Pflegertopia, you know, the one in the middle of the KoolAidic Ocean?
Kim, I talked about that on the call. I think we need to activate people around the country to do things locally. I think most of the people on the phone were concentrating on National Media(MSNBC, Fox) and the internet.
There were others, though, who were committed to having a physical presence. I think it is going to hinge on how organized we can get with the average PUMA voter.
SM, maybe Gore wants us to go Nuclear now.
People take a deep breath.
What polls are we looking at?
SUSA has Obama up 9 pts over McCain, 48-39.
I believe in PA it’s closer but he’s still up 5 or so.
With PA and OH he’s likely over the top.
Kim,
They watered the Unity Pony in Lynchburg at the Jack Daniels plant.
Er up 9 pts in OH
So Obama is at Gore’s house now in TN? Hmph.
Mawn, ain’t it the truth though? If Dubya was an Enron/ExxonMobil tool, Obama is by far the Execlon tool. Gore is marrying himself to Nuclear Waste – you can’t serve two masters. And PUMA can make sure of that.
SM,
You are so right, but the magic map board couldn’t have oceans because it kept getting the floor to wet.
Gack – Prolix !
I am choking with laughter. Good one.
Prolix, don’t worry, the Obamessiah will turn the water into Tropical Punch Kool Aid and we’ll just slurp it off the floor.
What difference would Al Gore’s endorsement make?
Unless Obama is going to get Al Gore to trash talk about the Clintons. But even then, Obama has gone so far off into lala land that he is not going get the PUMAs back.
There is literally nothing he can do. PUMAs can lose the election for him.
Mawm: I will go after them at the state level, if they need someone in SC.
It would be so nice to live in a state that Lindsey Graham didn’t preside over. Of course, you know, that our fair governor is on the VP short list for McCain.
He has taken over the Hall of Whispers in SC since Strom’s secret love child came out.
Arabella, from your mouth to God’s ears.
See you later.
Stop harshin’ on Gore, he’ll bring the Nobel Laureate vote.
Riogberta Menchu is the new Obama girl.
Bye Arabella!
This will make you sick and make you cry and make you say “Hell No, We are not going to take it!”
The Gore endorsement means nothing ,now!
Interesting post with the “real clear politics #’s”.
They should have pro-rate the “un-committeds”,
factoring in the “average” Edwards & Richardson usually got. Approx. 12-14% JE & ??you know who.That would be the MOST ACCURATE!
The main point is that she”BLEW HIM AWAY” after early March; when McCain was the known opponent
& the “VETTING” of Obama began!!
GREAT JOB TODAY “WILL BOWER” on MSNBC!
Did anyone hear about the Tribute to Tim Russert that Hillary & Schumer are proposing? Hillary ALWAYS DOES THE RIGHT & THOUGHTFUL THING!!
It has to do with dedicating the roadway by “Buffalo Bills Stadium” to Mr. Russert / “BEAUTIFUL”!!
prolix, your snark is the best. changeoslovakia … LOL!!!!!
You guys, Heidi Li of Heidi’s Potpourri — an amazing Clinton supporter — was just featured in a Yahoo article about her campaign to Retire Hillary’s Debt and all of us Clinton supporters. She regularly posts on pro-Clinton sites and is the world’s greatest fundraiser but also positive Hillary person.
It’s a fabulous piece, I can’t believe Yahoo featured her (and all of us) like this. She posted in on Bitterpoliticz for people who wanted something to brighten their day with all of our bad news, and find something positive we can do.
Some of us are also focused on Turning Down Barky and are determined to end his felonious attempts to strong arm his way past democracy, but here’s the positive side of what we can do for Hillary as well!
http://tinyurl.com/4h7asz
It makes my head hurt. Is the Democratic Party deliberately throwing this election? How do you win by installing a most arrogant candidate who in all likelihood can’t carry half of his “57 States” (lol) and is the candidate of “DISUNITY”? Sometimes I just want to go bang my head against the wall. I wonder where California will figure in this? It’s usually a safe democratic state, but my thoughts are that it could swing either way because there is a large segment of alienated voters (Hillary Supporters who don’t walk in lockstep despite the wishes of Party Bosses). Even if “O” carried 100% of the AA votes, would that be enough to win without the support of other important voting groups that continue to be ignored by this campaign? (I’m talking about working class folks, baby boomers, women, Hispanics, Asians, people with brains, et al).
Gore endorsing — in Michigan is a slap. Mr. Voter Disenfranchisement in a voter disenfranchising state.
2 things:
1. Hasn’t this election proven that endorsements mean nothing?
2. Gore apparently only cares about his own sorry arse just like any other politiican. Color me surprised.
But give money, do anything but turn the channel when I see his phony ads? Not me.
May they all rot in a hell of their own making.
why is gore endorsing if the primary is over? it doesn’t make any sense, who is he endorsing him over, McCain? They really must be afraid of what Hillary is going to do.
SM,
Riogberta is the official campaign historian.
Gore endorsing in Michigan?
Well, it figures. This is the guy who wanted to blow off Florida’s votes in 2000.
Then, when a bit of pressure was applied, fought the good, uhm, surrender.
Is there a Nobel Prize for Disenfranchisement? If so, Gore and Obama are running stride for stride.
Get a clue *61, not all blacks drank your kool-aid. My husband is black, NOT VOTING FOR YOU, my son-in-law black, NOT VOTING FOR YOU, my grandson, black & Italian, NOT VOTING FOR YOU, my in laws, sister in laws, black, NOT VOTING FOR YOU. You didnt bamboozle them.
Okay, but how about strategy? How do we defeat him in November? I’m thinking some targeted, non-profit, informal campaigning. I’m guessing if we picked three or four of the states they are targeting, such as VA, FL, GA, and LA we could provoke enough of the right groups (including right groups, heh) that we could throw a real monkey wrench in their plans. I think this election will end up being a squeaker (assuming no Perot/Nader-like character interferes) that if shave off a couple of points, we are sure to defeat him. It just takes this one loss to have an effect on the entire faction of Obama-Dean-Brazile-blogger boys. This is a bet and they know it. If they fail now, when the entire party has been given over to them, they will not likely rise again for some time.
Prolix, you beat me! I can’t joke about Nobel prize winners. Especially ones I like.
Gore lost me. Our romance is over. End to Global Warming does not = Endorse Nuclear Energy Guy.
Stolen presidency victim does not = Endorsement of primary vote stealer.
This primary just gets stranger, and stranger.
You’re travelling through another dimension. A dimension, not only of sight and sound, but of mind. A journey into a wondrous land whose boundaries are that of imagination. Next stop, the Twilight Zone!
Along with Gore’s endorsement, Tipper will play the campaign song backwards and it will say, “Better if played forward.”
Love the video, now how do we get it everywhere, how do we get it to Supers, too long for TV. But it made me send Hillary some money!
Is there a Nobel prize for con jobs?
Teresa: Yeah – Alcatraz
I am from Montana. The Republicans normally take the state…you can look at the numbers yourself: There were local elections which caused some people to vote one party over another, but that won’t happen at the General Election time!
http://sos.mt.gov/ELB/elections/2008/primary/statewideraces/President/index.asp
If Senator Obama believes he can swing Montana (a whopping 3 electoral votes) because we now have a Democratic Governor, he is forgetting we also have a Repubican Lt. Governor and we like being near the middle of the road. Even my parents (who have always voted Democrat) agree to NO DEAL…we don’t like Kool-aide!
Can you imagine a world if the Repugs said, “Okay, Dems, your nominee will be the person who wins Red state caucuses.” In that world ole Nancy would sit on the Capitol Dome and spin, the Brazile Nut would just crack and Dean would go unexplicably silent.
But that is what we essentially have. If not for the 120 or so delegates from the red caucuses all this wouldn’t be happening.
Its a topsy turvy world — next thing you know Martha Stewart will be selling stuff at K-Mart.
Interesting. Now they’re openly stating that they expect voting to be race-based. That’s perfectly OK for their side, of course.
so besides18 millions primary voters under the bus, now the state of ohio, israel, the latinos, the boomers, women, and anyone who criticizes.
I think both parties are trying to throw the election for president because neither party really wants the Oval Office. The Republican Party is already looking ahead four years from now and writing off the Congress as a lost cause. Obama can’t win Florida and Ohio anyway.
win the whithouse without florida and ohio
maybe they are drinking their own koolaid l.o.l.
That photo is like THE BEST! Where’s typical grandma? She must be waaaaaay under that bus! LOL
So they think they can win without Florida and Ohio?
“Someone” is feeling a touch of foreboding. But not enough!
“Personally, I think he loses all of them (I’m predicting a massacre on the scale of Mondale in ‘84)”
I am thinking on a McGovern scale. My Dem family in NJ will not vote him. Don’t be surprised if NJ goes to McCain.
This is an interesting read:
http://www.votenader.org/blog/2008/06/16/will-obama-let/
Love the picture with this post. And it is getting crowded under here.
Just heard from my 84-year-old aunt from Miami, who’s voted for Dems since Truman. She said that if she can’t vote for Hillary again, she won’t vote at all. Should I tell her that Bambi didn’t want her vote anyway?
Bambi’s assuming that he’ll win all the Kerry states, including PA, MI, NJ, NH and small but mighty CT. I believe it (not).
HopeyDopey thought there were 58 states, not 57.
He said: “We’ve been in … what… 57 states now?
With one more to go.”
Anyway… If you can stomach it, Frank Rich’s op-ed piece in today’s NYTimes, “Angry Clinton Women ♥ (heart) McCain?”, breaks it all down for us concerning the reasons Nobama will win in November.
zookz, how could I have been so dumb. I never wuz good with “the math”. thanks for setting me straight
I live in Central Fl and use to live for a long time in S Florida. I can tell you unequivocally that Obambi will not and can not win Fl even if Al Gore campaigns for him here.
SFlorida particularly Dade County and some parts of Broward county will see the Cuban Hispanics go overwhelmingly for McCain.
Obama made the colossal mistake of saying that he would be willing to meed with Castro without preconditions. This is a deal breaker, I believe even so with the younger crowd who may disagree with their parents.
The North Miami and Palm Beach, Boca Raton areas where there is a heavy concentration of Jewish voters, I predict will have a hard time voting for him because of the characters surrounding him, some o fthe things that he has said and their love for the Clintons.
In the Tampa to Orlando, I-4 corridor, there are more Puerto Ricans here who tend to vote Democratic. However, with this election, I sense that he will not fully have his support. Most of the people that I have spoken to are Clinton supporters and won’t vote for him. Callers are calling in to the local talk show and stating that they and their family members who are Dems won’t vote for him, either they will stay home or pull the lever for McCain.
Forget about N Florida, that is red, red, red except for the great Clinton warrior’s district, Corrinne Brown who is AA and a fierce Clinton supporter and supporter for counting ALL of the votes.
REgarding the red states, forgetabout it, ain’t gonna happen. Somebody is smoking too much crack…step away from the pipe!
If McCain is smart, he will pick Romney imo, gives him creds on the economy and puts Michigan in play as well as NV. It also forces Obama to spend resources in MA .
Regarding PSD, I read this as a poke in the eye to Sen. Clinton. While talk of the Obama camp hiring her was floated over a month ago, it makes no sense to give her this position when he hasn’t even selected the VP.
Also, I would think that the VP would select their own COS. It shows me that Obama is a control freak and intends to control everything and everyone.
I live in Virginia and the odds of Obama winning VA seem like maybe 4 out of 10 to me. He’ll be strong in Northern VA around the DC area, maybe Richmond and a few other places, but there will be a big rural vote that he will lose by a large margin. He’s hoping Mark Warner’s popularity will help him, but I think it’s a long shot.
Of course, you never know, a lot can happen between now and then, but I would not be basing my winning strategy on taking VA, GA, or other states like that. If you plan on losing states like MI. OH, and FL, you’ve got a big problem.
Of course, I doubt anyone knows their real strategy and it could easily change by November.
garychapelhill: “zookz, how could I have been so dumb. I never wuz good with “the math”. thanks for setting me straight ”
___________
gary, there are 3 types of people in the world…
those who are good with math and those who aren’t good with math.
Florida Hispanics – There was a recent article in the FL dem party webpage (prior to last week of primary elections, if i recall) which basically boasted that fl registered democratic hispanics now equaled republican hispanics. As SM stated, cubans are strognly republican (although the younger cubans less so) In central FL the largest (by 50%+) hispnaic group are puertoricans who are overwhelmingly democrats. Mexicans are the second largest hispanic group and make up less than 15% of the hispancis in central fl.
In my family, I am the one that has gone agaisnt the grain. My father lives in Puerto Rico and even though was a Reagan Democrat (he was on the mainland at the time of Reagan’s first election and voted that way) and even though he prefered Hillary, would vote Obama if he was once again on the mainland. My brother, who lives in Miami, as big a Hillary supporter as I am, will vote Obama in Nov and is angry at me that I jumped the domocrat party ship. His ex partner a Hillary supporter and a well known death penalty defense attorney, from what I understand will also vote Obama in Nov. My mother, well she used to be a democrat until she moved to the mainland and was shown the “errors of her ways” by the church congregation she is a very active member (we were raised evangelical in Puerto Rico) Now she votes crhistian coalition. /sigh
Will Hispanics in FL “come around” in Nov? I don’t know. Honestly, I think it will be a split. Some of us will not and some will. Will it matter in the end? I think the result will be the same… Obama can’t win FL, but then again he has a new strategy that goes against an actual winning strategy
Montana, Alaska and North Dakota?!? Perhaps Obama has flip flopped again and is now for legalizing marijuana, after he was against it, before he was for it — let’s hope so, because he and his campaign must be smoking some petty strong stuff to think they can win these states. Insane. Obama was down 10 in the last poll in MT, and that’s after running tons of ads that he’s all for the 2nd Amendment. Hah! Just wait till the NRA starts in on him. He’ll lose MT by 15 or more, AK by 20, and ND the same.
It is time for some creative fun! I found this on YOUTUBE. Look at the video of the Apprentice. You get to play Donald Trump and you are firing John Dean. After you watch the video you will see a link in the column across from the screen to your right. It will tell you about the contest. Who ever writes the best “YOU’RE FIRED” letter to Dean wins a nice prize….The letters will be printed and sent to Dean but names won’t be given to him….WON’T THIS BE FUN!!!!
Bron,
But telling the people at this point that OH and FL don’t really matter to the win seems like really bad PR.
He’s going to need a bigger bus!
I don’t understand his line of thinking about most anything and this is no exception. He imagines that he will take states that haven’t gone Democratic since the 60s. Has anybody explained to him that Republcians get to vote in November?
He’s struggling with Florida and Ohio, but instead of working on changing their perception, he insults them further. He truly is The Alienator.
zookz, you crack me up!
Once again the “Virginia will go blue” meme rears its undead head. I’ve seen this hopeful statement on every single pro-Obama site since the primaries began and as someone who used to live in that great commonwealth, I am seriously confused. It will NEVER NEVER NEVER go blue. Never. But they toss it out like it’s a done deal, like it’s VA’s neighbor, reliably blue Maryland where I live now and which is one of the 5-6 max states I predict he will win.
“Could we set up a booth and show the candidates we are endorsing?”
Kim – I think this is a great approach. Were I you, I would get behind only congressional and state candidates who can be trusted to support progressive policies. (I wouldn’t make party affiliation a litmus test.)
I would organize it in the form/frame of a “New Suffragist Movement: Votes that Count!”
Local candidate support can gain way more LOCAL coverage. I’m willing to bet that, with the MSCM’s loss of credibility during the primaries, voters are, more and more, relying on closer-to-home, more down-to-earth sources for info.
Going local in down-ticket races, especially with the DNC abdicating responsibility in that territory, could cause many unpredicted, and (by progressive standards) happy surprises on election day.
Street fairs, door-to-door canvassing, farmer’s markets, etc. are all great venues. Make it personal; you’ll be surprised how welcome your message will be.
Lets see here.Al Gore.The man who said………”Let every vote count in Florida………..endorses this Jackass……..Obama who says Fl. MI don’t count and that their votes were “IRREVERANT”??
Now hes dissing Ohio voters?…………Show this ass the door ………….and out of the Senate with him also!!!!
I’m trying to figure out where people are getting the idea that Obama doesn’t expect to win Michigan. I’m from Michigan and he’s already been here numerous times in the past month or so. The rally with Gore last night was from the Joe in Detroit. From what I’ve heard, he plans to spend a lot more time here leading up to November. Michigan is one of the MAIN states he is counting on. And as for Ohio? As the recent poll from PPP shows (referenced above), he’s up fairly big already. I grew up in Ohio and my family is still in Columbus so I keep up with what goes on down there. I truly have a hard time believing that after Ohio has pretty much kicked out the GOP in the last few years, I can’t see McCain winning the buckeye state. Dems have the governor and I believe 10 out of 11 of the largest cities now have dem mayors. That is just too much grassroots machinery to not carry Ohio for Obama.
[...] up with this sparkling gem of lunacy. Lambert graciously shares without comment, the Confluence posts with some succinct comments, and I foresee terrible things. Now, it’s not that it’s [...]
*rolls eyes* Yes, his internals are marvelous, that’s why he’s publicly writing off the state. In June. Even Obama isn’t politically stupid enough to let the world know he doesn’t have a chance of winning there if he has a chance of winning there. Remember, there’s no caucus and Donna and Howie can’t do much to disenfrachise in a general.
Don;t worry though, once he makes a few more Archie Bunker cracks, they’ll be lining up begging to vote for him.