Short Takes for 2008-02-28

Breaking: “Senator Obama does not make promises he doesn’t intend to keep”! Oh, really?

Barack Obama has ratcheted up his attacks on NAFTA, but a senior member of his campaign team told a Canadian official not to take his criticisms seriously, CTV News has learned.

Wonder who that “senior member” might be?

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Mayor Bloomberg will not run, and “the party” is over!

If a candidate takes an independent, nonpartisan approach … I’ll join others in helping … the candidate who recognizes that the party is over … will be the winner this November

Who is that candidate? Obama mentor Tom Daschle knows.

BLITZER: You sound like one of those moderate Democrats and Republicans who met in Oklahoma recently, who want to see the Left and the Right basically move closer together. …

DASCHLE: Well, it’s not only where I am personally. But I think it’s where the American people are. It’s where Barack is. … It’s why Republicans say, for the first time, you know, I think I can work for that guy

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New LAT poll results show Obama ahead by 6 among likely primary voters (and tied 46-46 among Democrats), but 18 points up in the “already voted” subsample … which would suggest stronger Clinton performance in the 14 states that have yet to vote. OTOH, it’s just a poll.

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“What Nelson Mandela could do in his country, Barack Obama could do in ours”

— Obama surrogate Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Scott Gration, in Columbus, OH

What, defeat our system of apartheid? Jump-start a Truth and Reconciliation Commission? Establish a tradition of one-party rule? Anoint a successor who thinks beet juice cures HIV/AIDS? Or invade Lesotho?

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From the comments:

  • Hillary raised $35M in February, and
  • Doubts are raised about Obama’s claim that he was running for US Senate when he delivered his October 2002 antiwar speech. Sorry, folks, it’s legit. (His “one superior decision proves my superior judgment” claim, however, is a reflection of immature judgment … as any parent knows.)

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21 Responses

  1. So Obama reaches out to the Canadians and they rat him out? Doesn’t his campaign know that the Canadian government is now run by conservatives? What fools.

  2. BTW youtube has the clip.

  3. Obama’s claim in the last debate that when he made his 2002 speech on Iraq he was “in the midst of” a “high stakes” campaign for the U.S. Senate is not accurate.

    When Hillary says “The fair comparison is he didn’t have responsibility, he didn’t have to vote” she’s right.

  4. I like the Truth and Reconciliation commission idea. But apartheid is so pre-racial (for a president who is just a middle aged white guy passing for black when it is convenient for him).

  5. New Rasmussen poll which has Obama up.

    Obama: 48

    Clinton: 44

    Gender breakdown:

    Women: 51%
    Men: 49%

    Among undecided more people have a favorable opinion of Hillary but both have high favorable ratings.

    In a poll of Hispanics, Clinton leads 62%-22% contradicting Rasmussen.

    http://www.kbtx.com/home/headlines/15994352.html

    Polls are all over the place but women and Hispanics are the keys to a Hillary victory.

  6. Rasmussen had Hillary leading Obama among Hispanics by only 7 points but the other poll contradicted that.

  7. Hey, Guess what, Hillary grassroots, we raised a ton of money in February for our favorite lady. All she had to do was ask. Check it out:
    Hillary raises $35 Million in February

    (I kind of picture Dr. Evil with his pinky at the corner of his mouth and that crazy laugh)

    Not too shabby

  8. Wow! I would think that most of the money was raised after Super Tuesday since thats when we found out that she loaned her campaign money.

  9. Factcheck: Obama ran for re-election to IL’s 13th Senate District in November 2002, but he ran unopposed in both the primary and general elections.

    He formally announced his bid for US Senate 2005-01-22 against a competitive Democratic primary field and incumbent Republican Peter Fitzgerald (who had not yet announced retirement).

    It is reasonable to assume Obama was actively organizing and fundraising for his 2004 US Senate run at the time of his October 2002 antiwar speech.

    Obama gets a clean bill of health on this one (and you can bet Hillary’s crew would have nailed him a lot earlier if this much-recited claim was squishy).

  10. Many pollsters make a distinction between “Registered Voters” and “Likely Voters”. I think I would use the numbers for Hispanics are closer to the values in the Texas A&M poll. This is most consistent with previous results. As far as Rasmussen, their Hispanic breakdown is probably wrong (and since they probably had a smaller subsample size for Hispanics, they are more likely to be wrong) and their female turnout is oddly low (could be the Angry White Male GOP vote though).

    I said it once and I’ll say it again: If Democrats, particularly women and Hispanics, come out to vote for Hillary in Texas, the state is hers. The polls are looking a lot like the CA polls immediately preceeding Super Tuesday. Women and Hispanics showed up for Hillary on Super Tuesday and carried her to victory. If they do so in TX, the state will be hers.

  11. gqmartinez: I’m worried about the Republicans that will show up to vote for Obama. Are there any estimates as to how many of them may do this?

  12. Hey all!

    Worked at Hillary’s NYC hq last night, making calls to local folk to encourage them to start making calls to the March 4 primary states this weekend on Hillary’s behalf. If anyone out there is feeling frustrated and angsty about next Tuesday, this is a great way to channel that into productive energy. I encourage you to take some time and make some calls if you haven’t already done so. I really think we can have a huge effect on the outcome by making direct contact with folk in the primary states and sharing our enthusiasm. You can do it online through the website or contact your local Hillary office and get together with other like-minded folk. I’m going to be calling all weekend so if you’re coming out in NYC let me know so we can say hi!

    Riverdaughter, I hope you don’t mind this kind of post. If so, apologies. I just figure your readers are exactly the people who we’d want making these calls – passionate, locquacious and well-versed!

    Cheers!

  13. AND…i promise to learn how to spell loquacious. yeesh. sorry!

  14. Ronk, I think you’re being way, way too generous. Obama’s claim is that he was “in the midst of” a “high stakes” Senatorial campaign when he made his October 2002 speech, when he didn’t even declare for the Senate seat until January 2003. The timeline simply doesn’t square with the claim (and in the announcement, he doesn’t even mention Iraq, which might cause some to think that the speech has assumed greater importance retrospectively than it had at the time.)

    Further, Obama’s web site makes a claim that’s even more false than the claim he made in the debate. It says: “As a candidate for the Senate in 2002…” which is not so, again, because he did not declare until 2003.

    If we want to give Obama credit for making a speech against the war when he was thinking about running or lining up backers, by all means let us do so.

    But the two claims, “as a candidate for U.S. Senate in 2002″ and “in the midst of” a “high stakes” race are simply false when you look at the timeline.

    They are in no sense whatever “legit,” and Drudge may be holding back on them now, but will he be so kind in the general? I doubt it very much.

  15. sallybitch: I don’t mind at all. Whatever you can do to rally the troops is ok with me.

  16. rd, most of the polls out right now include all registered and/or “likely” voterss–Dem, Indie, GOP–in their results. It’s hard to truly know how many GOPers will actually vote with the Dem ballot. For Hillary to win this, IMO, she needs to make sure Democrats come out in large enough numbers to compensate for the cross-over votes. Particularly Asian Americans, Hispanics, and women (in order of importance).

    Hillary’s increased emphasis on Ann Richards is good and her “one million” effort can help ensure a real gender gap. Her “Night Shift” ad is right on target for women, Latinos and blue collar workers. She needs more like that. I’d also like to see a greater sense of urgency aimed toward her base (which the “one million” effort does to some extent). When I was in Nevada, there was a deliberate sense of urgency because of the intimidation from the culinary union. Hispanics for Hillary were pretty darn motivated, waiting for hours to caucus, missing work, etc.

    One thing non-Obama blogs could do is to make a concerted effort to highlight Hillarys general lead amongst Democrats. Something to make sure Democrats feel that they are important and that the GOP/Indies can change the results. WI would have been much, much closer without the 35% non-Dems voting.

  17. Yeah, we got a switcher. El Paso politician, Veronica Escobar, switched her support from Obama to Hillary citing the Texas A&M Latino poll as reason for her switch.

    http://weblogs.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/blog/2008/02/another_defection_this_one_to.html#comments

    ‘Another defection, this one to Clinton’s camp

    by Christi Parsons

    Okay, we said we wouldn’t tell you every time there was another Democratic defection.

    But it seems worth noting that supporters aren’t just flipping from supporting Hillary Clinton to backing Barack Obama.

    Today, the Clinton campaign announced that El Paso County Commissioner and former Barack Obama supporter Veronica Escobar has switched her support to Clinton.

    According to a release from the Clinton camp:

    The announcement follows a Latino Decisions Texas Poll that shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by 62% to 21% among registered Hispanic voters in Texas.

    “While I initially liked Barack Obama,” Escobar says in the release, “I am supporting Hillary Clinton because it is clear that she is the one candidate who will truly fight for our communities as president.”‘

  18. WS, I think that last paragraph says it all. HRC should have been more aggressive on that front. She was never going to win the fair-weather “can’t we all just get along” vote. When you have solid principles, you can never really win that vote. She won the base pretty substantially, particularly in Democratic bastions like CA, MA, NY, NJ. Should have went with what works best. No time for second guessing though.

  19. My Thought of the Day:

    I have noticed that all Obama supporters consistently give this reason for his support: he has inspired people; he has built a movement. None of them can give an independent reason for believing in it.

    Well, perhaps every one is in it because others are in it. It’s not a movement; it’s a clique.

    Suggested slogan: Obama, I believe in him because lots of others believe in him.

  20. ghost2 – Aye. If it’s a movement in any conventional sense, it’s not a sociopolitical movement. It’s an evangelical movement — a movement about propagating the movement.

    And if it’s an evangelical movement, it’s of the subtype charismatic (meaning roughly, it makes no sense) — grasping for micro-miraculous signs rather than cogent theology).

    And if it’s a charismatic evangelical movement, it’s of the minor subtype intolerant — holding that the unwashed cannot wait to be saved at their own pace and volition..

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