Yes Sarah, there is a media conspiracy

Matt Taibbi

 

---

Matt Taibbi mostly talks about the media conspiracy against Sarah Palin, but I want to focus on another part of his post:

 

1) The political media has always taken it upon itself to make decisions about who is and who is not qualified to be taken seriously as candidates for higher office. Without even talking about whether they do this more or less to Republicans or Democrats, I can testify that I witnessed this phenomenon over and over again in the primary battles within the Democratic Party. It has always been true that the press corps has drawn upon internalized professional biases, high-school-style groupthink and the urging of insider wonks to separate candidates into “serious” and “unserious” groups before the shots even start to be fired.

[...]

2) When that does happen, when the press corps decides to abandon all restraint and go for the head shot, it usually tells us a lot more about the reporters’ bosses and what they’re thinking than it does about the reporters themselves. Your average political reporter is a spineless dweeb who went to all the best schools and made it to that privileged seat inside the campaign-trail ropeline by being keenly sensitive to the editorial wishes of his social and professional superiors.

[...]

The tone for all this behavior is always set somewhere way up the corporate totem pole, and it always reflects some dreary combination of simple business considerations (i.e. what’s the best story and sells the most ads) and internalized political calculus (i.e. who is a “legitimate” candidate and who is an “insurgent” or a “second-tier” hopeful). It’s not that the reporters are making this judgment themselves, it’s that they have to listen to what the apparatus Up There is saying all day long — not just their bosses but the think-tank talking heads they interview for comments, the party insiders who buy them beers at night, the pollsters and so on.

And when all these people start getting in their ears about this or that guy doesn’t have “winnability,” or doesn’t have enough money to run, or has negatives that are insurmountable, all that thinking inevitably bleeds into the coverage. It’s not that the reporters are “biased.” They just don’t have the stones, for the most part, to ignore all the verbal and non-verbal cues they get from authority figures about who is “legitimate” and who isn’t.

[...]

That said, even back at the very beginning of the campaign, before the signal came down that it was okay to start giving Obama big sloppy blowjobs on the air, when reporters were all slamming the one-term Illinois Senator for being a “lightweight” prone to “rookie mistakes” (those among us whose version of recent history imagines Obama being handed the 2008 election by the campaign press seem always to forget that part, but go back and look — the “Hillary is the presumptive frontrunner” period lasted a solid nine or ten months), Obama’s press handlers observed the prime directive. They did not interfere with the reporters’ civilization. There was a “let the chips fall where they may” attitude that helped out a lot when the Beltway consensus finally shifted and the money started pouring in behind the candidate; there was no bad blood to overcome when the press had to change its mind again and embrace an “Obama is now the presumptive frontrunner/We are now at war with Oceania” posture.

(emphasis added)

Matt is being a little disingenuous. He writes for Rolling Stone magazine, and they were treating Obama like a top-tier candidate way back in February 2007, when he barely had two years in the US Senate.  But Matt’s post still begs the question – who sent the signal telling reporters to treat Obama as a contender?

In a sane and rational world Obama would never have been considered a viable candidate.  He was certainly a rising star and a possible Vice-Presidential candidate, but considering his lack of experience and accomplishment, he should never have been taken seriously as the Presidential nominee.  The media made him a contender – so who decided that the media should do so?

Matt also ignores the fact that Obama raised $99 million in 2007 – more than all the other Democratic candidates except Hillary raised combined.  He raised that in approximately equal amounts in each quarter throughout the year, even though he was running a distant third behind Hillary and Edwards until late in the year.  Where did that money come from?

(Hint: It wasn’t from college kids sending in their lunch money.)

Matt Taibbi obviously knows more than he is telling.  The secrets he’s keeping would reveal how the leaders of the Democratic party and the media conspired to ignore the voters and make Obama the nominee.

The same people who selected Obama are trying to destroy Sarah Palin.  Who are they, and why are they doing these things?

Whose democracy is it anyway?

 

---

digg!!! tweet!!! share!!!

Add to: Facebook | Digg | Del.icio.us | Stumbleupon | Reddit | Blinklist | Twitter | Technorati | Furl | Newsvine

Tuesday Midmorning Call

Good Morning Conflucians!

I’m starting the day off by sleeping in late because yesterday was my only day of work this week.  The kids are both heading off to spend thanksgiving elsewhere so I’ll have  a nice quiet week to continue my research agenda.  What’s on your menu today?

Our Nation Politic:

McClatchy says that Obama will send 34,000 more troops to Afghanistan.

President Barack Obama met Monday evening with his national security team to finalize a plan to dispatch some 34,000 additional U.S. troops over the next year to what he’s called “a war of necessity” in Afghanistan, U.S. officials told McClatchy.

Obama is expected to announce his long-awaited decision on Dec. 1, followed by meetings on Capitol Hill aimed at winning congressional support amid opposition by some Democrats who are worried about the strain on the U.S. Treasury and whether Afghanistan has become a quagmire, the officials said.

The U.S. officials all spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the issue publicly and because, one official said, the White House is incensed by leaks on its Afghanistan policy that didn’t originate in the White House.

CNN reports a poll that shows the country divided over the situation.  The folks that seem squarely behind the move are the Republicans.  Does that surprise you?

Half of the people questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey say they’d support such adecision, with 49 percent opposed.

But support for a troop buildup of that size is greater than the 45 percent of the public who support the war in Afghanistan. The survey indicates that 52 percent oppose the war.

“The war is unpopular and previous polls have shown that Americans oppose sending more troops in the abstract,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “But it may be a different story when Americans are confronted with an actual decision, by the Commander-in-chief, on a military matter. Previous presidents have seen a ‘rally effect’ – at least temporarily – when they have made command decisions like this one.”

The poll’s Tuesday morning release comes just hours after Obama met Monday night with his national security team on Afghanistan and neighboring Pakistan. This was the ninth meeting of the president’s war council to consider whether to send more troops to Afghanistan, as requested by the U.S. commander on the ground there.

More indepth information on this is available at WaPo.

Lieberman continues to present problems on the Health Care bill. He’ll refuse to vote for any thing with a public option.  This is from the WSJ.

Sen. Joseph Lieberman, speaking in that trademark sonorous baritone, utters a simple statement that translates into real trouble for Democratic leaders: “I’m going to be stubborn on this.”

Stubborn, he means, in opposing any health-care overhaul that includes a “public option,” or government-run health-insurance plan, as the current bill does. His opposition is strong enough that Mr. Lieberman says he won’t vote to let a bill come to a final vote if a public option is included.

The Economy:

The WSJ reports that One in FOUR borrowers is Underwater.  That is they owe more on their house than it’s worth.  Wealth is one thing that will boost spending and lack of it, well, let’s just say that’s another reason it will still be a while before our economy picks back up.

These so-called underwater mortgages pose a roadblock to a housing recovery because the properties are more likely to fall into bank foreclosure and get dumped into an already saturated market. Economists from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said Monday they didn’t expect U.S. home prices to hit bottom until early 2011, citing the prospect of oversupply.

Home prices have fallen so far that 5.3 million U.S. households are tied to mortgages that are at least 20% higher than their home’s value, the First American report said. More than 520,000 of these borrowers have received a notice of default, according to First American.

Most U.S. homeowners still have some equity, and nearly 24 million owner-occupied homes don’t have any mortgage, according to the Census Bureau.

It seems that fundamental data has finally awakened Wall Street.  MarketWatch says Financial worries rattle major indexes at the open.

U.S. stocks opened lower Tuesday, led by the energy and financial sectors as crude-oil futures fell and worries about the financial sector increased after China’s banking regulator warned the nation’s lenders to strictly comply with capital requirements or face sanctions.

Most eye-opening was the big revision of the third quarter GDP Data.

Third-quarter GDP was revised lower, to 2.8% from the 3.5% gain originally estimated, although the revision was in line with forecasts. It showed overall consumer spending rose a quarterly 2.9% in the third quarter and contributed 2.1 percentage points to GDP at annual rates, smaller than prior estimates. More about the third-quarter GDP revision.

Culture Shock and Schlock:

Lou Dobbs may be running for President. This is from Politico.

Asked if he might make a run at the White House in 2012, Dobbs answered flatly: “Yes is the answer.”

“I’m going to be talking some more with some folks who want me to listen in the next few weeks,” Dobbs told Thompson. “Right now I’m fortunate to have a number of wonderful options.”

Dobbs’s political future, however, remains shrouded in question marks. He has left open a variety of paths to public office—in addition to toying with a presidential campaign, Dobbs hasn’t ruled out a bid for Senate in 2012 in New Jersey—and also left his party affiliation a mystery.

Mathew Dowd is still obsessed with Sarah Palin.  I still can’t believe the number of people she either incites to an apoplectic frenzy of hate or love.

Polls show that Palin’s favorability numbers are a mirror image of those of Obama. She is respected and loved by the Republican base, while Democrats despise her. Granted, independent voters have significant reservations about her capability to be president, and this would be a hurdle in the general election. But to win the Republican nomination, Palin needs only to get enough support from the base to win early key states. Already, in nearly every poll today, she has a level of support that makes her a viable primary candidate. Just look at the crowds and the buzz her book tour is drawing.

What’s on your reading list this morning?

digg!!! tweet!!! share!!!

Add to: Facebook | Digg | Del.icio.us | Stumbleupon | Reddit | Blinklist | Twitter | Technorati | Furl | Newsvine

Fleecing Stockholders

I’ve always been interested in the moral disconnect that frequently comes when huge companies owned by numerous, faceless stockholders hire CEOs  to tend their stakes.  It’s a bit like thinking the way I did when I was a kid watching farmers bring their livestock to the Pig Palace in Omaha.  I thought they were going to some marvelous Pig Ball because the farmer loved them.  My dad told me they go in as pigs and come out as sausages.  I went there as youngster on a school field trip and I’ve never eaten a hot dog since.  I feel somewhat the same about buying stock in huge multinationals at times.

We’ve spoken here about Agency problems. They are at the heart of the field of Corporate Governance.  If you’re not going to run a company yourself, but entrust it to others, you better find a way to keep track of your managers.  They frequently take you to the Pig Palace.

The connection between executive malfeasance and executive pay is one of the few areas in my corporate finance field that really fascinates me.  It’s because the stories that emerge really show the underbelly of business and it’s probably schadenfreude on my part more than anything.  However, just when I think I’ve seen the worst of it, another example comes from yet another study.  This time Lucian Bebchuk of Harvard landed a big one and a timely one.  The study even wound up in executive summary format in today’s NYT. It seems there’s never a lack of meat for the sausage maker.

There’s been little debate on how badly the CEOs of failed financial industry giants like Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers leveraged their company’s portfolios into bankruptcy.  It’s pretty obvious they screwed up big time. Most folks assumed–and it appears wrongly–that since many executives receive compensation in company stock and these stocks obviously are now worthless, that the executives of the company basically took it on the chin.  Well, sit down, because this will make you irate.  The headline that tells all reads “Executives Kept Wealth as Firms Failed, Study Says”. The author, Louise Story, points out that our belief that the CEOs went down with their ships is ‘urban myth’.  They may have tanked the company, the stock, and to a large degree the economy and financial markets of the world, but they hardly walked away empty-handed.

Thanksgiving Traditions: What’s on your table this Thursday? OPEN THREAD

It’s almost here.  The “I’ll eat so much that I’ll probably explode” day also known as Thanksgiving.  With all of the family traditions out there in Conflucian-land, I thought it might be fun to share your traditions, menus, and recipe ideas.  Maybe we can add a little something different to the table this year.

So, what’s going to be in YOUR Thanksgiving feast?  Do you have any special traditions? How about “secret” recipes?  Any unique twists on traditional favorites?  I’d love to hear all about them!

And this is also an OPEN THREAD!

Monday Morning News and Views

Good Morning Conflucians! It’s been a lost weekend for me. I don’t know if I have the flu or just a bad cold, but I’m really out of it. I’ve been checking in at TC to read comments, but haven’t had the energy to get involved in the discussions. I don’t know how I’m going to get through the next couple of school days; thank goodness I have a five-day weekend coming up!

Anyway, I’m going to share a few stories with you and then open this thread for you to post what you’re reading this morning.

Now this is a really strange story. Am I actually awake and reading this?

Daily Mail: Rom Houben: Patient trapped in a 23-year ‘coma’ was conscious all along

A car crash victim diagnosed as being in a coma for the past 23 years has been conscious the whole time.

Rom Houben was paralysed but had no way of letting doctors know that he could hear every word they were saying.

‘I dreamed myself away,’ said Mr Houben, now 46, who doctors thought was in a persistent vegatative state.

He added: ‘I screamed, but there was nothing to hear.’

Doctors used a range of coma tests before reluctantly concluding that his consciousness was ‘extinct’.
But three years ago, new hi-tech scans showed his brain was still functioning almost completely normally.

As for the zombie health care reform health insurance rescue bill, Democratic Senators are already announcing they will gladly give away the rest of the store:

Senate Dems suggest they’re open to altering health care bill

Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois, the chamber’s second-ranking Democrat, acknowledged he was open to changing the bill’s controversial government-run public health insurance option favored by the left.

“We are open because we want to pass the bill,” Durbin told the NBC program “Meet the Press.”

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-New Hampshire, summed up the situation to CNN’s “State of the Union” program: “Listen, in the end, this is going to be a compromise. It’s not going to be a perfect bill, but it’s going to be a very important starting point.”

If this is the best they can do with a Democratic supermajority, I can’t imagine what it would take to make any real improvements to this joke of a bill. I guess surrender is the latest “health care reform” talking point, because the Washington Post has a similar story.

Public option at center of debate: Reid must find compromise to pass health-care bill

Democrats had little time to savor their weekend Senate health-care victory, as two of the lawmakers who voted to move the debate forward Saturday night indicated Sunday that they will not vote to pass the package if it includes a government-run insurance program.

One member of the Democratic caucus, independent Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.), reiterated Sunday that he will oppose any bill that contains a public option. Appearing on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” he called such a government-run plan “radical.”

“We have a health-care system that has real troubles, but we have an economic system that is in real crisis,” Lieberman said. “And I don’t want to fix the problems in our health-care system in a way that creates more of an economic crisis.”

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), another centrist who supported the move to continue debate but has made it clear he has many objections to the legislation as currently written, restated his opposition to a public plan. “I don’t want a big-government, Washington-run operation that undermines the private insurance that 200 million Americans now have,” he said on ABC’s “This Week.”

Moderate Democratic Sens. Mary Landrieu (La.) and Blanche Lincoln (Ark.) also have deep misgivings about the Senate language — a public option with a state opt-out clause — and have expressed varying degrees of unhappiness about other approaches under consideration.

{{Sigh…. }}

This sounds really ominous:

The New York Times: Wave of Debt Payments Facing U.S. Government

Treasury officials now face a trifecta of headaches: a mountain of new debt, a balloon of short-term borrowings that come due in the months ahead, and interest rates that are sure to climb back to normal as soon as the Federal Reserve decides that the emergency has passed.

Even as Treasury officials are racing to lock in today’s low rates by exchanging short-term borrowings for long-term bonds, the government faces a payment shock similar to those that sent legions of overstretched homeowners into default on their mortgages.

With the national debt now topping $12 trillion, the White House estimates that the government’s tab for servicing the debt will exceed $700 billion a year in 2019, up from $202 billion this year, even if annual budget deficits shrink drastically. Other forecasters say the figure could be much higher.

In concrete terms, an additional $500 billion a year in interest expense would total more than the combined federal budgets this year for education, energy, homeland security and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Politico: Forecast for Dem primaries: Ugly

The most closely watched Senate primary is in Pennsylvania, where Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak are slugging it out in unusually personal terms.

Specter has cast Sestak as ineffective and opportunistic, attacking him for his failure to register to vote in Pennsylvania until shortly before launching his 2006 congressional campaign and labeling the two-term congressman as “No Show Joe” — a reference to the House votes Sestak has missed while pursuing the Senate nomination.

Not to be outdone, Sestak has assailed the party-switching incumbent’s character, referring to Specter as a “flight risk” for Democrats and reminding the party rank and file of Specter’s decades-long career as a Republican. Last month, Sestak launched a website dedicated to “The Real Arlen Specter,” featuring quotes Specter would rather forget and past tributes to the five-term incumbent from a cast of GOP heavies including President George W. Bush, Sen. Rick Santorum, Vice President Dick Cheney and Bush adviser Karl Rove.

Arlen Specter really isn’t a Democrat, you know….

This story is horrendous.

Story of an American Detained Overseas

Last month, an American citizen who spent over a year imprisoned in the Middle East was quietly freed by his captors in the United Arab Emirates. That man, Naji Hamdan, is now reunited with his family in Beruit, Lebanon. In his first broadcast interview since being freed, Hamdan spoke to me about his ordeal.

Hamdan is a 43-year-old Lebanese-American who spent 20 years living in southern California. Until three weeks ago, he was jailed by the UAE in a terrorism case still shrouded in mystery.

Hamdan spent 14 months behind bars in what he and his attorneys from the American Civil Liberties Union call “proxy detention,” suggesting that Hamdan was detained by the UAE at the request of the United States.

And did you know there was a radiation leak at Three Mile Island over the weekend? Phew! Deja vu or what?

OK, I’m out of steam. Please post your links in the comments and have a marvelous Monday!

digg!!! tweet!!! share!!!

Add to: Facebook | Digg | Del.icio.us | Stumbleupon | Reddit | Blinklist | Twitter | Technorati | Furl | Newsvine

Animistic Spirits

Behavioral Economics and Finance academics still have a difficult time getting respect even though J.M. Keynes introduced the idea of “animal spirits” back in 1936. Pure, rational models of finance and economics don’t always do well explaining things like momentum in stock prices or another phenomenon we call the equity home bias puzzle.  I always likened it to the majority of people being basically herd types that tend to follow whatever leader they can summon.  They can feel very loyal to those herds or tribes too.

There’s a few lone wolves out there, but not many.

This is the definition postulated by Keynes.

“Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than mathematical expectations, whether moral or hedonistic or economic. Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits – a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.”

So that hopefully gives you enough to read an article in today’s NYT written by one of the great minds of Behavioral Economics, Robert J. Shiller.  Even the title is interesting.  It’s called “What if a Recovery Is All in Your Head?” and it speaks to the psychological idea of self-fulfilling promises.  Not every one feels comfortable with those kinds of things in the economics discipline.  If you go read Mark Thoma–of Economist’s View–you’ll hear the kinds of doubts most often expressed.

I find that I have a knee-jerk, negative reaction to explanations based upon mass psychology, sentiment, story-telling, and the like. I have to consciously force myself not to dismiss them. I’m not sure why that is, though it probably has something to do with a feeling that such explanations aren’t scientific, and hence have no place in serious academic investigations. That is, prior to the crisis I thought that the real economy drove sentiment, and not the other way around. Sentiment could definitely provide a feedback loop that strengthens negative or positive economic shocks, but psychology was not the prime mover. Thus, sentiment changes that did not have evidence to support them would quickly die out before having much, if any effect.

If I stayed with the academic journals forever, I’d have to agree with this.  However, I’ve yet to miss a crash in the 1980s or 1990s just by relying on this wondering feeling in my stomach which starts ”the fundamentals are still out of whack, what are these guys trading on?”  I have that question now and still am expecting some kind of market correction.  I’ve just watched the market froth itself into a frenzy too many times over what I consider frivolous reasons to not take the work of Shiller seriously.

Consider this possibility: after all these months, people start to think it’s time for the recession to end. The very thought begins to renew confidence, and some people start spending again — in turn, generating visible signs of recovery. This may seem absurd, and is rarely mentioned as an explanation for mass behavior late in a recession, but economic theorists have long been fascinated by such a possibility.

The notion isn’t as farfetched as it may appear. As we all know, recessions generally last no more than a couple of years. The current recession began in December 2007, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, so it is almost two years old. According to the standard schedule, we’re due for recovery. Given this knowledge, the mere passage of time may spur our confidence, though no formal statistical analysis can prove it.

So, history tells us our business cycle is due for an upturn. Are we just in a funk and prolonging the bad times or are we reacting to our analysis of bad fundamentals?  Barry Ritholz of The Big Picture pooh-poohs most of the salient points put forth by Shiller.  I’m not sure I’m ready to buy his point by point distraction.  Especially this point that sees us all the way one way or the other.   Some times I think many scientists can miss the gray areas when applying their gray matter.

Not Totally Irrational: One of my complaints about economics is it over-emphasizes people as rational, unemotional actors. However, when it comes to sentiment, economics seems to make the same mistake in the opposite direction — it assumes that people are foolish, unthinking creatures unable to engage in ANY rational thought whatsoever. All sentiment, no rationality at all.

I think we see times when it is easier to be rational than emotional and times when it seems hard to be rational in the face of overwhelming emotion.  This is especially true in the day of 24 hour news cycles and financial channels that bring us stories of people like us that are bankrupt, losing jobs, and being foreclosed on.  Also, when the suffering is more wide spread, like it is today, it is easier to see some one in your neighborhood with issues.  I think there are definitely times when we blow anecdotal evidence clear out of proportion.  I see it in my students–and down page here– all the time.

That’s not to say that we always play to our lesser natures.  I just think that sometimes we still do have the animal within us and that we tend to bring that out in each other.  That is also something proposed in the 1930s by a French psychologist  Émile Coué who was the father of  positive thinking with his phrase  “every day in every way I’m getting better and better.”   He just thought we could talk ourselves into almost anything.  Does it not work in reverse also?

Ritholz does make a rather good point that we are, in fact, seeing a lot of bad things go on and we maybe just reacting rationally to bad things.  He includes the fact that most of us have seen our buying power stay the same or decrease, our home values have decreased, and that Pollyanna pundits on CNBC keep looking a bit daft because they keep being so wrong.  It is, afterall, Dr. Doom and Gloom that has gotten it right recently and the papers are eager to tell us that.

This is way I was interested to see Thoma’s last paragraph.

But this crisis has caused me to reevaluate. I still find the Shiller-type animal spirits, psychology based explanations hard to swallow, but when the foundation supporting your beliefs is called into question (in this case modern macroeconomic models), it’s important to open your mind and at least give alternative explanations a chance. That’s particularly true when the person pushing the stories has a pretty darn good record of using them to warn of bubbles, as Shiller does. So I’m trying.

Exactly, what is a bubble or excessive exuberance or watching CNBC say “every day in every way our stock market is getting better and better” but a form of tribal COUÉISM?  Does it work?  Nope, probably not.  However, do we act on the belief it might?  My guess is yes, we do.  After all, we may be more rational then the other living, breathing sentient beings on this planet, but like them, our hearts still pound, our breathing gets shallow, and we feel excitement or fear when things happen we do not expect.  We prefer to amble with our herd in green pastures than to be separated out there vulnerable to the wolves and other predators.

My guess is that’s it’s not so much that we are rational or we are animistic, but that we have differing degrees of each dependent on the stimulus and the situation.  That is why I have never completely bought into the notion of rational markets.  Well, that and they can’t explain away some of the frictions without completely leaving the period of the Great Depression out of the data.  (Don’t believe me, go read a Fama study.)  I’ve always believed that we need more of a Bayesian approach where we get weighted to the more rational notion while things are looking normal and more animistic when things are not.  I’ll be the first to admit that there are times when my dog appears a lot more calm and rational than me.  But that is because I know when the kibble comes and she does not for certain.  She assumes, by experience, that it will always be there when she heads to the bowl or it will be forthcoming when she nudges me.  That is her experience without a Great Dakinikat Depression.  

Did I mention her name is Karma?

So, is it all in our head?  All in our heart?  Or what?

digg!!! tweet!!! share!!!

Add to: Facebook | Digg | Del.icio.us | Stumbleupon | Reddit | Blinklist | Twitter | Technorati | Furl | Newsvine

Sunday Morning at the Confluence Bed & Breakfast

Good Morning and Happy Sunday Conflucians.  This morning’s breakfast is served in bed.  The coffee beans have been freshly ground, the muffins are still warm from the oven, and Rico added a shot of something special to that strawberry smoothie.  So get comfy, adjust yourself under those covers, and enjoy this delightful tray of goodies as you peruse the morning news.  Oops!  Don’t worry about that tiny spill.  Just make yourself at home.

OK, let’s get started.  What better way than to start off with some…

Hillary Clinton News

Vogue has an interesting profile of Hillary Clinton this month.  Some of the excerpts are wonderfully revealing yet comfortingly confirming our general sense about this incredible woman.  Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: Her Brilliant Career.

When she walks into one of the many grand diplomatic reception rooms on the eighth floor of “the Building,” as everyone calls the State Department, she is clutching a big mug of milky coffee and is wearing no makeup. She looks tired and cranky. She is about to tape three I’m-sorry-I-can’t-be-with-you-here-this-evening videos for events she can’t attend. This is obligatory drudge work, to be sure, but it’s drudgery that requires her to suck it up and find that extra gear: She must be on. Clinton says hello to the group—not her usual effervescent eye-popping hello but a barely mustered blanket nicety. She sits where she is told, facing a teleprompter, and her ever-present and very chic deputy chief of staff, Huma Abedin, hands her a small case filled with cosmetics. Holding a compact, Clinton puts on mascara, lipstick, blush, and a little powder. She yanks her jacket straight, affixes her mic, and signals she is ready by sitting up and staring directly into the camera. And—click!—just like that, the public Hillary appears: upbeat, reassuring, in control, wide awake, means business. She nails all three videos in one take. Done. Next.

******************************

Of Course there’s Healthcare Health Insurance Reform

Landrieu shows her DINO side:  Landrieu says Reid will soon realize no triggers = no bill.

After announcing her intent to support a health care debate this afternoon, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) told reporters she thinks Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will soon have to choose between a triggered public option and no health care bill.

******************************

Jon Walker gets the feeling Harry Reid is fixing to throw the public option under the bus: Sounds like Reid is going to sell out the public option.

It looks like Harry Reid is getting ready to sell out the labor unions, the progressive community, the Democratic base, and the majority of the American people. The vast majority of Americans want a public option as part of health care reform. Reid fully has it within his powers to get a health care bill passed with a public option. He could use reconciliation to pass a bill with a simple majority. He could even use the “nuclear option” to eliminate the silly filibuster, like Bill Frist threatened to do only a few years ago.

******************************

After 10 hours of grueling pontifications and reading of lobbyists’ notes, the Senate voted along strict party lines to open the health bill to formal debate. Senate votes to open healthcare debate.

The 60-to-39 vote, along party lines, clears the way for weeks of rowdy floor proceedings that will begin after Thanksgiving and last through much of December.

******************************

Democrats hold the line, but cracks show.  So who really thought this thing would be a walk in the park and turn out to be a great achievement for a Democratic supermajority.  The two provisions?  If you guessed the public option and abortion coverage, you would be correct.

In a 60-39 vote on strictly partisan lines, the Senate sent the $848 billion health care bill to the floor for debate after the Thanksgiving break, but not before a clutch of moderates served notice that they couldn’t back the bill in its current form.

One key provision – for a government-run insurance plan that would allow states to opt-out of coverage – effectively died in the Senate chamber Saturday, as the last two Democratic holdouts demanded changes to the bill. s

“I am opposed to a new government administered public health care plan as a part of comprehensive health care reform, and I will not vote in favor of the proposal that has been introduced by Leader Reid as it is written,” said Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), the last Democrat to commit to a vote for opening debate. Two hours earlier, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) had said much the same thing.

Their comments signal that weeks of negotiations remain on a bill Obama once hoped to have on his desk by Christmas – and even raised the prospect that splits in the party over the public option, abortion and other aspects of the bill could scuttle passage altogether.

******************************

The Economy

The Democrats are beginning to realize, it IS and will continue to be the Economy stupid!  Hard Math for Democrats.

Counting to 60 in the Senate is only the beginning of the tough math that bedevils Democrats these days as they try to pass health reform, survive a bad economy and appeal more to the middle-class voters whose support they’ll need in the 2010 elections.

******************************

Unemployment rose in 29 states last month. Yep, it’s still the economy stupid.

Joblessness rose in 29 U.S. states last month compared with 22 in September, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Michigan had the highest jobless rate at 15.1 percent, followed by Nevada at 13 percent and Rhode Island at 12.9 percent.

The national rate last month reached a 26-year high of 10.2 percent, weighing on consumer spending that accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Nov. 17 that joblessness “likely will decline only slowly,” a reason policy makers will keep interest rates near zero to ensure growth is sustained.

“We’ve had a surprisingly sharp jump in the jobless rate,” said Richard DeKaser, president of Woodley Park Research in Washington. “Businesses have truly been doing an extraordinary job of wringing out productivity from the labor force.”

******************************

A full spate of economics news will be dropped during Thanksgiving week.  Will there be much to be thankful for?  Thanksgiving Week Stuffed With Economic News

******************************

No major revelation here: No Recovery for Main Street.

Apropos Sean’s post on the results of the CNN survey, there are plenty of data points to to explain why Americans are visibly frustrated with the state of the economy. While Wall Street Banks are set to dish out record-breaking bonuses just a year after being bailed out of the financial collapse, things are not nearly so rosy on Main Street.

******************************

National and World News

I can’t tell if this is a major revelation or no big deal: Climate-gate: how the MSM reported the greatest scandal in modern science.  The Telegraph breaks down the news coverage of the leaked emails between climate scientists.

******************************

Sarah Palin as the “Mean Girl?” Geez, that’s a new twist.

[S]itting on the other side of Winfrey’s skeptical glare, Palin looked too cynical and savvy to play the innocent. Instead, she reverted to the mean girl, the woman who charmed conservatives by slicing gleefully into her foes, whether they be oil barons or community organizers. Her takedown of would-be son-in-law Levi Johnston was nearly virtuosic: All I want to talk about is his beautiful son, whom he hasn’t seen in a while because he’s so busy being Ricky Hollywood . . .

Johnston gives new meaning to the term opportunistic, and clearly deserves Palin’s scorn. But mean girls tend to turn on other women, and Palin’s chief target – besides those evil campaign staffers who forced her to wear designer clothes – is Katie Couric, whom she calls “the perky one.’’ Palin’s book is filled with snide remarks about Couric’s demeanor and her ratings. And Palin offers a new and inventive reason for fumbling so badly on the national stage: She was annoyed.

******************************

Oddz ‘n’ Endz

Hey, even God deserves a little procedural due process.  Senator Suing God Urges Judge to Proceed: Court Could Throw Suit Out Because of Failure to Serve Notice on God.

State Sen. Ernie Chambers says his lawsuit against God might seem funny but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have a serious point.

(SNIP)

The court told Chambers last week that his lawsuit may be dismissed because he had failed to serve notice on God. Chambers acknowledged that failure in court Tuesday while sitting a few feet away from an empty table reserved for God and God’s attorney.

“Despite my most sincere, zealous efforts, I could not find a location to serve the defendant,” Chambers said.

******************************

My daughter (the former waitress) would love this story.  College students arrested for not leaving a tip.

It was an evening out that college students Leslie Pope and John Wagner will long remember.

Not only did they get what they called lousy service, they got handcuffed and arrested.

All over a $16.35 tip.

******************************

I’ll bet you missed the chance to celebrate World Toilet Day on November 19th.  Don’t fret, you can still learn all about Toilet Paper History: How America convinced the world to wipe.

******************************

Sure, you probably think it’s just science fiction crap.  Nope: 5 Scientific reasons a Zombie Apocalypse could actually happen.

******************************

These are definitely double-take worthy: 27 very strange and funny signs.

******************************

NASA has found a creative way to use the images of Mars they’ve collected over the years. Be a NASA “volunteer” -  Play: Be a Martian.

******************************

But, can he dance?  Couple declares “Our unborn baby looks like Michael Jackson.” No, really…he does.

******************************

The Final Word…

And finally, with all of the talk about healthcare, I think I’ve found the best answer yet.  Here’s a great “Wellness” initiative we should implement everywhere.  I know I’d find it addictive.

What’s caught your eye this morning?

Happy Sunday Everyone!

SoD

digg!!! tweet!!! share!!!

Add to: Facebook | Digg | Del.icio.us | Stumbleupon | Reddit | Blinklist | Twitter | Technorati | Furl | Newsvine

Senate Healthcare Deliberations and Votes: Live Blog

The healthcare just give us anything and we’ll declare victory health insurance industry gift bag reform discussions have reached a Senate showdown point.  The 60 votes needed on a procedural vote to move debate forward will be sought this evening, supposedly at 8pm; but another 60 will then be needed for cloture.  What will Harry concede to the conservatives from the Democratic Party and the Republicans in order to “declare victory?” For your review and in case you may need to check out specific parts being bantied about this evening, here is the FULL BILL, and here is a SUMMARY.  Debate has begun, lines are being drawn.

Here is the LIVE STREAM of the Senate Debate on CSPAN

According to TNR, Harry already deleted women’s gynecological care from the mandatory minimum coverage list to mirror the House anti-women version.  In The Fate of Lady Parts in the Senate Bill, Suzy Khimm notes:

Reid’s merged Senate bill left out part of an amendment that Barbara Mikulski had successfully introduced into the Senate HELP legislation, which requires insurance companies to include women’s preventative services as part of all minimum benefit packages, for little or no cost. Mikulski argued that women of child-bearing age end up paying an average of 68 percent more in out-of-pocket costs, partly due to reproductive health needs, and often ended up delaying or forgoing care (like mammograms) because of the expense. The provision—which was in neither the House nor Finance Committee legislation—was slated to be in Reid’s bill this week, but “CBO decided at the last minute there was a problem and it was removed until that is resolved,” Mikulski spokesperson Rachel MacKnight said in an email today.

The problem, according to sources familiar with the issue, was that the Mikulski’s amendment wasn’t specific enough in terms of how it would determine which services would be covered, simply saying that it would be it up to the discretion of HHS to set the guidelines for coverage. As such, the provision was so broad that CBO ended up having to give it a very high—i.e. expensive—score, and Reid ended up leaving the language out of the bill.

According to MacKnight, Reid and Mikulski “are working on a solution to include her amendment” and strengthen provisions for women’s preventative services in the final bill. But given the tempest surrounding the new mammography recommendations—along with today’s news about Pap smears—this might not be an easy task.

What is really disconcerting is the continual assertion by the Obama administration that there’s nothing to worry about with these new recommendations from the “TASK FORCE.”  This is a bald-faced lie since both the House Bill that was passed, and this Senate version, both use this same TASK FORCE as the mechanism for establishing preventive standards for the insurance industry plans.  See page 17, Section 2713 (a)(1) of the Senate Bill and page 106, Section 222 (b)(8) of the House bill. As Khimm accurately observes:

In all of the bills, HHS uses the U.S. Preventative Services Task Force serve as a basic guide to determine what should be covered at little or no cost as part of a minimum benefits package. (Of course, as I’ve reported, HHS can choose to go beyond the task force recommendations.)

Yeah.  The HHS is not listed int he bill as the defining code.  Their “move along, nothing to see here” approached will not fool us.  We’ve all learned the value of being vigilant.  Here is the TASK FORCE website for a complete rundown of CURRENT recommendations.  However, as we all know, these standards can change at any time.  And the changes that have been recently announced are all adverse to women’s health: new recommendations for cervical cancer screening and mammography.

So, what will happen throughout the day and tonight?  Will the Stupidstupaksepsis language be incorporated into the bill?  Harry has already been busy buying votes by doling out special dollars to the DINO holdouts.  How far will they throw us under the bus to be able to deliver a “victory?”  Air America Radio has their idea about how things will play out today.  Let’s follow along and discuss as it’s happening.

digg!!! tweet!!! share!!!

Add to: Facebook | Digg | Del.icio.us | Stumbleupon | Reddit | Blinklist | Twitter | Technorati | Furl | Newsvine

Saturday Morning at The Confluence

Good morning everyone! What are you reading this morning? I recently started the new book by John Perkins, Hoodwinked: An Economic Hit Man Reveals Why the World Financial Markets Imploded–and What We Need to Do to Remake Them.

In the news, I’m half-heartedly following the health care bill’s progress and wondering what is going to happen with the Fort Hood story. Even though there seems to be a lot happening, I get the feeling that absolutely no progress is being made on anything whatsoever. Is it just me?

SENATE HEALTH CARE REFORM BILL

I know I should be all worked up about the health care bill, but I’m not. The Senate will have a vote tonight at 8PM to see if debate on the bill can go forward, but who cares? The bill doesn’t seem worth all the months of arguing and haranguing. The politicians haven’t listened to the people’s concerns at all, as far as I can tell. It has all been just a big kabuki dance leading up to the next corporate bailout.

The New York Times has an editorial on the situation, but it’s hard to tell if they are endorsing the bill or not:

The Senate bill is weaker in many respects than the trillion-dollar bill passed by the House, which would cover more of the uninsured and provide greater subsidies. It would postpone many reforms until 2014, a year later than the House bill, delaying benefits for millions of Americans. It also lacks an explicit mandate on employers to offer coverage. The House bill does a better job of closing the gap in Medicare that leaves many elderly beneficiaries struggling to pay for medicines.

Conservative Democratic senators whose votes will be needed to break a Republican filibuster are restive over the costs of the overall plan and over including a public option, even with an opportunity for states to opt out. Some may also object to provisions that would allow enrollees to buy plans that cover abortions on the exchanges using their own money, a more reasonable standard than the virtual ban on abortion coverage under the House bill. Despite these concerns, conservative Democrats owe it to the nation to help break a Republican filibuster and allow debate to proceed.

Whatever….

More health care reform links:

Reuters: Healthcare bill faces first U.S. Senate test

Bloomberg: Reid, Democrats Face First Big Senate Test on Health-Care Bill

CNN International: What to expect in Senate’s Saturday health care vote

Politics Daily: Pollster Celinda Lake: Where Women Really Stand on Health Care

Washington Post: Health Bill Opponents Turn Up the Volume

FORT HOOD SHOOTINGS

News 8 Austin: Hasan to have first court hearing Saturday

Wall Street Journal: Army Taps General to Probe Shootings

AFP: Fort Hood Shooter Talked with Radical Cleric

Boston Globe Editorial: Questions swirl in Fort Hood

CRUCIAL QUESTIONS need to be answered about the motives and contacts of Colonel Nidal Hasan, the suspect charged in the mass murder at Fort Hood, Texas. Was the army psychiatrist radicalized by a Yemeni-American imam who had known two of the 9/11 hijackers and who called the Fort Hood massacre a “heroic act’’? Could the killings have been prevented if the FBI had notified the army about an exchange of e-mails the bureau was monitoring between Hasan and the radical imam?

These are questions that may not be the focus of prosecutors but are rightfully the concern of congressional committees with oversight responsibilities. Irritating as Senator Joe Lieberman’s grandstanding on other matters might be, the chairman of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee was doing what needs to be done when he opened hearings Thursday to determine if federal agencies “missed signals or failed to connect the dots in a way that enabled Hasan to carry out his deadly plan.’’

LA Times: Senate inquiry into Ft. Hood misplaced

Sen. Joe Lieberman insists on pushing ahead with a Senate inquiry into the mass murder at Ft. Hood, despite White House and Pentagon anxieties that the probe could compromise the prosecution of alleged killer Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan.

It’s always interesting to see how many friends due process has in times of extreme stress. Given what looks like the security authorities’ wretched mishandling of the Hasan case — the guy appears to have done everything but paste an “Osama bin Laden Rocks” bumper sticker on his car — there’s every reason for the administration and the FBI to want to put off a legislative reckoning for as long as possible. “We want to guarantee everyone a fair trial” is always good cover. But in this case, it has the additional virtue of being true.

Lieberman isn’t the only Senator calling the Fort Hood attack “terrorism.” Now Democratic Senator Carl Levin of Michigan is saying it too:

The Hill: Sen. Levin: Fort Hood shooting rampage was likely a terrorist attack

“It probably could be labeled as a terrorist attack. I am not uncomfortable with thinking that’s the likely outcome here or the likely accurate description,” Levin added.

[....]

Levin said his panel has to receive a number of closed-door briefings from the military and other involved agencies before it holds a public hearing. Levin did not offer a timeline as to when the hearings will occur but said he is committed to holding them.

He also stressed that Congress has an important oversight role to play in regard to the shooting and identifying deficiencies within military processes and policies.

This could get ugly.

THE ECONOMY

NYT: New Consensus Sees Stimulus Package as Worthy Step

WSJ: Goldman Holders Miffed at Bonuses

WSJ: House Attacks Fed, Treasury

Obama Says Asia Trip Focused on Economy and Creating U.S. Jobs

ODDS AND ENDS

Man arrested at LAX with fifteen live lizards strapped to chest

In an apparently cold-blooded attempt at smuggling, a Lomita man was arrested at Los Angeles International Airport this week with more than a dozen wriggling lizards strapped to his chest.

Michael Plank, 40, was detained by U.S. Customs agents after they discovered 15 live lizards stuffed into his money belt, officials with the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service said Friday.

Ancient Crocs Ate Dinosaurs

Thursday, University of Chicago dinosaur hunter Paul Sereno writes about five skeletons of ancient crocodiles that lived 100 million years ago.

“We have crocs that ate plants and galloped and ate dinosaurs and were flat as a board,” said Sereno, who unearthed the skeletons over the last several years in the Sahara.

Tips for the Admissions Test … to Kindergarten

Test preparation has long been a big business catering to students taking SATs and admissions exams for law, medical and other graduate schools. But the new clientele is quite a bit younger: 3- and 4-year-olds whose parents hope that a little assistance — costing upward of $1,000 for several sessions — will help them win coveted spots in the city’s gifted and talented public kindergarten classes.

Motivated by a recession putting private schools out of reach and concern about the state of regular public education, parents — some wealthy, some not — are signing up at companies like Bright Kids NYC. Bright Kids, which opened this spring in the financial district, has some 200 students receiving tutoring, most of them for the gifted exams, for up to $145 a session and 80 children on a waiting list for a weekend “boot camp” program.

Quick restart of Big Bang machine stuns scientists

The nuclear physicists working on the Large Hadron Collider were surprised that they could so quickly get beams of protons whizzing near the speed of light during the restart late Friday, said James Gillies, spokesman for the European Organization for Nuclear Research.
The machine was heavily damaged by a simple electrical fault in September last year.
Some scientists had gone home early Friday and had to be called back as the project jumped ahead, Gillies said.

HAVE A STUPENDOUS SATURDAY, EVERYONE!!!!

digg!!! tweet!!! share!!!

Add to: Facebook | Digg | Del.icio.us | Stumbleupon | Reddit | Blinklist | Twitter | Technorati | Furl | Newsvine

It’s your body… what do you think?

Most of you probably know that I’m a 19 year survivor of a extremely rare form of cervical cancer. The Pap smear came back perfectly normal for me when I had 4th stage, invasive Cancer. As a result of all that I have a doctor daughter doing her residency as an ob/gyn and a real strong feeling that the biggest advocate of your health care should be you … I was a bitch about what was going on in my body until they finally listened to me.

So here’s the news and a basically open thread …

Screening Debate Reveals Culture Clash in Medicine (NY Times).

Two new recommendations, calling for delaying the start and reducing the frequency of screening for breast and cervical cancer, have been met with anger and confusion from some corners, not to mention a measure of political posturing.

The backers of science-driven medicine, with its dual focus on risks and benefits, have cheered the elevation of data in the setting of standards. But many patients — and organizations of doctors and disease specialists — find themselves unready to accept the counterintuitive notion that more testing can be bad for your health.

“People are being asked to think differently about risk,” said Sheila M. Rothman, a professor of public health at Columbia University. “The public state of mind right now is that they’re frightened that evidence-based medicine is going to be equated with rationing. They don’t see it in a scientific perspective.”

I know we have doctor Conflucians as well as other folks that are really concerned about Women’s Health.  So, here’s your chance to discuss.

digg!!! tweet!!! share!!!

Add to: Facebook | Digg | Del.icio.us | Stumbleupon | Reddit | Blinklist | Twitter | Technorati | Furl | Newsvine